Prediction Your Draft Selections

[Turbocat]

Ok. Maybe somebody looked at my list and thought it was a list of no-namers that might be better as a rookie draft list?
They are all legits that I have rated all year, behind Cerra, Stevo, Hayes, but we have no hope with that trio.

North at 22 ..bit early? To be honest I think we may be in with a shot at Hayes..had poor running form at the Combine apparently.

 

[The rabbi]

Craig "Budda" Byrnes' Geelong draft Preview at the Footy Prophet.


http://footyprophet.com/draft-preview-geelong/

 

[BigCat1]

1st pick Higgins (think he could slide big time), Brander, Garner, Richards
2nd Pick Hayes, Balta
3rd Pick Clavarino, Allen, L Fogerty, Worpel, Coleman Jones
4th Pick Ballard, Miers, Wooller, McCartin, Liam Ryan

 

[Pure_Ownage]

North at 22 ..bit early? To be honest I think we may be in with a shot at Hayes..had poor running form at the Combine apparently.

I would assume richmond at 20 is the danger as they need a kpf but these ruck types can slide. I would be interested to hear from Vdubs if this endurance issue has been impacted by injury or poor training or if he just has a naturally poor tank. If it's the latter i am not interested as you need big minutes from your rucks and kpfs but if its improveable we may consider given our poor kpf stocks.

 

[Footy Smarts]

What are the odds none of our early picks are mentioned here. Pretty sure of recent picks Thurlow, Lang and Parfitt were not on anybody's radar prior to being picked.

 

[Vdubs]

North at 22 ..bit early? To be honest I think we may be in with a shot at Hayes..had poor running form at the Combine apparently.

Hayes will go top 10.
North would be a class addition to our squad- an accumulator with penetrating kick and finish.

 

[Vdubs]

I would assume richmond at 20 is the danger as they need a kpf but these ruck types can slide. I would be interested to hear from Vdubs if this endurance issue has been impacted by injury or poor training or if he just has a naturally poor tank. If it's the latter i am not interested as you need big minutes from your rucks and kpfs but if its improveable we may consider given our poor kpf stocks.

Hayes will go top 10.
North would be a class addition to our squad- an accumulator with penetrating kick and finish.

Hayes is outstanding, relatively in this draft, for his position as #1 Ruck and ability to go forward.
Would be stunned if he fell below 10.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Hayes is outstanding, relatively in this draft, for his position as #1 Ruck and ability to go forward.
Would be stunned if he fell below 10.

He is sliding after his poor combine results according to those in the know. Also none of the top 10 pick sides really need talls other than freo but they have been clear that they are going mids at #2 and #5. So it looks like he will fall outside the top 10. What do you put his poor endurance down to and how easily do you think he can improve it?

 

[Vdubs]

He is sliding after his poor combine results according to those in the know. Also none of the top 10 pick sides really need talls other than freo but they have been clear that they are going mids at #2 and #5. So it looks like he will fall outside the top 10. What do you put his poor endurance down to and how easily do you think he can improve it?

204 cm at age 17
This kid has genuine ability, football nous, can ruck well and kicks goals regularly.
Those in the know?

https://www.zerohanger.com/2017-afl-draft-prospects-sam-hayes-15701/

 

[Pure_Ownage]

204 cm at age 17
This kid has genuine ability, football nous, can ruck well and kicks goals regularly.
Those in the know?

https://www.zerohanger.com/2017-afl-draft-prospects-sam-hayes-15701/

Not knocking the ability but the endurance is a big red flag for me. Most sides play 1 1/2 rucks now so the main ruck needs to play huge minutes. 2nd kpfs also need to cover lots of ground to help link the backs and forwards. The question is how easily can he improve the endurance? You would know better than me.

I would be surprised if he goes top 10 more likely 12-20. Ruck types tend to be need based in the first round so if no team needs one they can fall a fair way.

 

[Turbocat]

Hayes will go top 10.
North would be a class addition to our squad- an accumulator with penetrating kick and finish.

Vdubs..as I said to Stan Im not really a betting man..but id say Hayes going outside the top10 would be a good bet. Its seems a few were disappointed with his combine... and he would not be the first tall to fall. Grundy , 2mp..they all went later than originally forecast. However I doubt he gets to us in a "thin" draft

 

[Turbocat]

Not knocking the ability but the endurance is a big red flag for me. Most sides play 1 1/2 rucks now so the main ruck needs to play huge minutes. 2nd kpfs also need to cover lots of ground to help link the backs and forwards. The question is how easily can he improve the endurance? You would know better than me.

I would be surprised if he goes top 10 more likely 12-20. Ruck types tend to be need based in the first round so if no team needs one they can fall a fair way.

Type fall in and out of fashion .. but with the emphasis heading towards less rotations .the ruck position is under stress.. does one get value from a ruckman when so many are around the ball? Is one better just having tallish mid like a Blitz type.. all this would come into play with a clubs single figure pick , I think Street still haunts us , so Id really doubt we would take him as a single figure pick if his combine results were as poor as referenced... fall to 22 however and id be all over him like a cheap suit.

 

[Vdubs]

Not knocking the ability but the endurance is a big red flag for me. Most sides play 1 1/2 rucks now so the main ruck needs to play huge minutes. 2nd kpfs also need to cover lots of ground to help link the backs and forwards. The question is how easily can he improve the endurance? You would know better than me.

I would be surprised if he goes top 10 more likely 12-20. Ruck types tend to be need based in the first round so if no team needs one they can fall a fair way.

Vdubs..as I said to Stan Im not really a betting man..but id say Hayes going outside the top10 would be a good bet. Its seems a few were disappointed with his combine... and he would not be the first tall to fall. Grundy , 2mp..they all went later than originally forecast. However I doubt he gets to us in a "thin" draft

Type fall in and out of fashion .. but with the emphasis heading towards less rotations .the ruck position is under stress.. does one get value from a ruckman when so many are around the ball? Is one better just having tallish mid like a Blitz type.. all this would come into play with a clubs single figure pick , I think Street still haunts us , so Id really doubt we would take him as a single figure pick if his combine results were as poor as referenced... fall to 22 however and id be all over him like a cheap suit.

All good comments.
He could easily play a KF role with aplomb. BUT...At ER and for Victoria, they had this quaint notion where a truly dominant ruckman was used to get the ball out to awaiting mids. Then he'd rest up forward and menace the defenders with his reach and and marking and accurate goalkicking..
I ask you both, and you know you are both 2 of the utmost respected posters on BF, which 18 yo ruckman has his craft worked out in his first year of selection? Of course he will take time, but combine results are not relevant from my pov when he is as unique as he is. If he was a Vardy, 198 cm or so, then sure. But he has height AND mobility. He is vey good at both ends. Guys like Street were more limited.

Anyway, if he's 22, I'll be stunned and thrilled Bring it on. But Freo , Dogs, etc will jump at him.

 

[Turbocat]

All good comments.
He could easily play a KF role with aplomb. BUT...At ER and for Victoria, they had this quaint notion where a truly dominant ruckman was used to get the ball out to awaiting mids. Then he'd rest up forward and menace the defenders with his reach and and marking and accurate goalkicking..
I ask you both, and you know you are both 2 of the utmost respected posters on BF, which 18 yo ruckman has his craft worked out in his first year of selection? Of course he will take time, but combine results are not relevant from my pov when he is as unique as he is. If he was a Vardy, 198 cm or so, then sure. But he has height AND mobility. He is vey good at both ends. Guys like Street were more limited.

Anyway, if he's 22, I'll be stunned and thrilled Bring it on. But Freo , Dogs, etc will jump at him.

I really cant see Freo or Dogs going for him ... Dockers went for young talls Darcy(201) and have Strnadica(200) as a Rookie , Dogs are so tall now ..they have English(205) and Boyd, Roughhead , Campbell( 200) and just added Schache (199) and Trengrove(197).

The development comments are correct talls take ages its one reason why they do slip ..but clubs do rate stuff like the yoyo and the 2k test. The ability to push themselves in running seems very highly valued ..its the core reason Blitz is on our list. I think clubs will have to balance how long it will take for them develop a pick taken , and these days how long before he wants to go elsewhere if he is not getting played etc. so for those type of reasons .. I really cant see Freo or the Dogs taking him.

I also think teams with 1 early pick probably like to pick someone that will be able to show their worth reasonably early. Double pick teams would seem more likely to be willing to use one on a long term player. Perhaps if Hayes was a WA kid but they went past English last year with their early pick. After losing Weller , id think they would look at mids.

I look at the draft and cant see the obvious team who take him in the top 10. Saints have 7 & 8. With the loss of Riewoldt perhaps they pick him , all though they too have 4 players above 200 and recommitted to redraft Pierce(202) as a Rookie. Carlton have 5 players 200 and above.
Geelong would be a very good fit , they have play now talls but only 3 at 200+ and could just put him in the VFL for 2 or 3 years as they have done with Gardner. It would be regrettable if he is there at 19 and not at 22. Rich having picks at 17 and 20 ... and only 3 players 200..would also seem reasonable.

 

[Ratcat]

Not knocking the ability but the endurance is a big red flag for me. Most sides play 1 1/2 rucks now so the main ruck needs to play huge minutes. 2nd kpfs also need to cover lots of ground to help link the backs and forwards. The question is how easily can he improve the endurance? You would know better than me.

I would be surprised if he goes top 10 more likely 12-20. Ruck types tend to be need based in the first round so if no team needs one they can fall a fair way.

Red flag? ...you must be kidding! At 17 or 18!
You build endurance.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

All good comments.
He could easily play a KF role with aplomb. BUT...At ER and for Victoria, they had this quaint notion where a truly dominant ruckman was used to get the ball out to awaiting mids. Then he'd rest up forward and menace the defenders with his reach and and marking and accurate goalkicking..
I ask you both, and you know you are both 2 of the utmost respected posters on BF, which 18 yo ruckman has his craft worked out in his first year of selection? Of course he will take time, but combine results are not relevant from my pov when he is as unique as he is. If he was a Vardy, 198 cm or so, then sure. But he has height AND mobility. He is vey good at both ends. Guys like Street were more limited.

Anyway, if he's 22, I'll be stunned and thrilled Bring it on. But Freo , Dogs, etc will jump at him.

I think there are some good traits with him i just am concerned that without good endurance he might not find a position at afl level, i wonder how eaaily you think his endurance can be improved?

On the clubs the dogs wont take him given they have Boyd Schache English and Trengove and Freo's recruiting manager has been strong on thwm planning to pick mids in the top 10. This could be a double bluff but i doubt it.

GWS Adelaide WCE don't need a young ruck/KPF (and if GWS did they would probably rather take Brander) and Brisbane are drafting a similar player in Ballenden so Hayes probably gets to Richmond at 17/20 (depends if Naish gets a bid earlier which forces them to use these picks) then you have Bris 18 GC 19 (Suns need mids not talls) Rich 20 WCE 21. So I see Richmond as the main club that might take him as they are very light on for rucks and KPFs. If he gets past Richmond he probably gets to pick 22.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Red flag? ...you must be kidding! At 17 or 18!
You build endurance.

You do but some players have naturally poor endurance that can't be improved much others can once they tone up and train etc. The club would need to assess which one they think hayes is. It's also possible to be say a viable small forward with poor to average endurance but it's really hard to be a ruck or KPF with poor to average endurance the way the game is played now.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I really cant see Freo or Dogs going for him ... Dockers went for young talls Darcy(201) and have Strnadica(200) as a Rookie , Dogs are so tall now ..they have English(205) and Boyd, Roughhead , Campbell( 200) and just added Schache (199) and Trengrove(197).

The development comments are correct talls take ages its one reason why they do slip ..but clubs do rate stuff like the yoyo and the 2k test. The ability to push themselves in running seems very highly valued ..its the core reason Blitz is on our list. I think clubs will have to balance how long it will take for them develop a pick taken , and these days how long before he wants to go elsewhere if he is not getting played etc. so for those type of reasons .. I really cant see Freo or the Dogs taking him.

I also think teams with 1 early pick probably like to pick someone that will be able to show their worth reasonably early. Double pick teams would seem more likely to be willing to use one on a long term player. Perhaps if Hayes was a WA kid but they went past English last year with their early pick. After losing Weller , id think they would look at mids.

I look at the draft and cant see the obvious team who take him in the top 10. Saints have 7 & 8. With the loss of Riewoldt perhaps they pick him , all though they too have 4 players above 200 and recommitted to redraft Pierce(202) as a Rookie. Carlton have 5 players 200 and above.
Geelong would be a very good fit , they have play now talls but only 3 at 200+ and could just put him in the VFL for 2 or 3 years as they have done with Gardner. It would be regrettable if he is there at 19 and not at 22. Rich having picks at 17 and 20 ... and only 3 players 200..would also seem reasonable.

St Kilda will already have to trade either Hickey or Longer out soon because they can't play them in the same side and they will have Marshall and Pierce as rookies can't see them taking a ruck early. GC Bris and WCE i doubt need ruck/kpf so if he gets to 19 he probably gets to 22. Rich at 17/20 is the danger their only rucks are Nankervis Hampson and Soldo and Hampson is 30 and Soldo is really average and they have only Griffiths after Riewoldt.

Agree with everything else you posted.

 

[Ratcat]

You do but some players have naturally poor endurance that can't be improved much others can once they tone up and train etc. The club would need to assess which one they think hayes is. It's also possible to be say a viable small forward with poor to average endurance but it's really hard to be a ruck or KPF with poor to average endurance the way the game is played now.

How could he have poor endurance being an all Aust elite in the draft and in a mobile position.
Codswallop.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

How could he have poor endurance being an all Aust elite in the draft and in a mobile position.
Codswallop.

You are aware that being All Aust has to do with overall performance not one specific point like endurance? You are linking two completely unrelated things. The testing does though and based on the testing he was either carrying an injury (in which case i would question why he tested in the first place) or his endurance is poor.

 

[Turbocat]

St Kilda will already have to trade either Hickey or Longer out soon because they can't play them in the same side and they will have Marshall and Pierce as rookies can't see them taking a ruck early. GC Bris and WCE i doubt need ruck/kpf so if he gets to 19 he probably gets to 22. Rich at 17/20 is the danger their only rucks are Nankervis Hampson and Soldo and Hampson is 30 and Soldo is really average and they have only Griffiths after Riewoldt.

Agree with everything else you posted.

The reason why I say they are slight chance are double pick , loss of Riewoldt , medsize KPF in McCartin , melb club with a reasonable time frame before they are expected to be top4.. etc. Id say they are more likely to pull the trigger on Bonar.. the Petrrica choice still a stone in their sandal.

So atm we really are in the zone for two of Vdubs boys that id not thought we would be within cooee of. Hayes and Garner. Garner would be another example of the drafting someone who has just dropped a bit .. but he reads like a best22 kid with leadership potential. Not flash but neither was Guthrie.

 

[Ratcat]

You are aware that being All Aust has to do with overall performance not one specific point like endurance? You are linking two completely unrelated things. The testing does though and based on the testing he was either carrying an injury (in which case i would question why he tested in the first place) or his endurance is poor.

What do you reckon Smith runs 2 or 3km in?
Wouldn't threaten the world record that's for sure.

 

[Turbocat]

Red flag? ...you must be kidding! At 17 or 18!
You build endurance.

Pure is not saying he is not draftable... its just one criteria among several .. but plenty of players drop on running ability. Rainer would be standout 1 with high endurance. Sure players can add to their CV of skills , and build the physical capabilities but at this end of the draft the clubs will be very discerning. Clubs lean from previous drafts ..the likes of Schache and even Leuenberger for example , and they get very , very reticent on years of development with early picks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What do you reckon Smith runs 2 or 3km in?
Wouldn't threaten the world record that's for sure.

Smith is actually a very good endurance athlete what he has had to learn is football nous not athleticism.

Fwiw i do think hayes is draftable i just think there are some factors we need to consider, grundy was a safer pick but given where we are at hayes may be worth the risk if there.

 

[Turbocat]

Smith is actually a very good endurance athlete what he has had to learn is football nous not athleticism.

Fwiw i do think hayes is draftable i just think there are some factors we need to consider, grundy was a safer pick but given where we are at hayes may be worth the risk if there.

Grundy went at 18 then .. he certainly would have change a few choices since then .. I like Thurlow but ... so as much as I want speed he would be a bit too much potential to pass in the 20's id have thought.

And the Smith comparison is slightly off. Mature body for a mid round value..