Prediction Your Draft Selections

[Jhye Clark 13]

I completely agree. But when was the last time Wells called a player that we all want?! Selwood?

Cockatoo.

 

[Catsmaninamerica]

Cockatoo.

Who cares if a bunch of drunks on an annonymoys board want a player. Wells gets it right more than anyone else. Parfitt is gonna be a beauty. Cockatoo a genuine star.

 

[calder_daddy]

Ur an actual idiot, if you honestly rate a player simply cos he's 'young' then your dreaming. If we take him firstly before Wooler and also before pick 58 then it would probably be the mistake of the draft, especially considering the number of other players (better talls) who will be available around our 2nd rounders.

People said last year how stupid we were for taking Parfitt so early when we could’ve gotten him with a later pick and has proven that Wells and co know more than any of us and so they should as it’s there job.
Who says we can’t pick him with our first pick and wells and co to be right about it.
Just let them do there job, in saying that just like previous years it’s very rare anyone can guess who we take.
Stewart last year was the only player Geelong were linked too and got

 

[calder_daddy]

Not sure number of posts always correlates with knowledge - in fact I doubt Wells and Scott get on here much ...

Probably the only fact on here, people from clubs would read this site though.
Some people on here know players better than some recruiters

 

[year of the cat]

Interestingly Cal Twomey doesn't mention Taylor in his top 30 ranked players for this year's draft.

 

[calder_daddy]

Not OP, but McCartin has shown next to nothing. I get he's super young, but it's a huge risk to assume that he's just going to come along and be a star. At this point in time he's undersized for a KPF (193cm), who's to say he will grow? Who's to say he won't go backwards in terms of ability?

And that’s where we let them do there job, they know more about ability, more about growth in players and more about the possible development levels than anyone on here knows

 

[CatRiot]

The more I watch of Sam Taylor, the more I am sold on him for 22.

Very good size height and pace for a key position. Held his own against senior WAFL players all season playing good footy.

Bit worried he might be taken before our first pick.

Exceptionally good mark overhead and a great interceptor, has pace to burn as well.

I know you follow the draft a bit, do you think there is a chance he goes before our first pick?

I think we can get him with Pick 24, no problems. Which means we can take best available and/or slider with Pick 22.

 

[year of the cat]

I think we can get him with Pick 24, no problems. Which means we can take best available and/or slider with Pick 22.

Kangaroos won't take a KPD. He'd be a great get at 24. I think we'll either go for the slider such as O'Brien, another small/mid such as Bailey or L.Fogarty Or Houlahan, who I have heard they have a fair bit of interest in.

 

[Turbocat]

I completely agree. But when was the last time Wells called a player that we all want?! Selwood?

Too long ago but Im not sure everyone was hoping for JS. Boak was the pre-draft expectation.

 

[Turbocat]

Ur an actual idiot, if you honestly rate a player simply cos he's 'young' then your dreaming. If we take him firstly before Wooler and also before pick 58 then it would probably be the mistake of the draft, especially considering the number of other players (better talls) who will be available around our 2nd rounders.

If you wish to be here long term id choose to avoid calling people idiot for having a different opinion than you.

Its up to Wells to try to discern what a player will be like years down the track .. 17 or 18 he is a very unfinished product. Plenty of standouts in juniors bomb and plenty of players who become much better once in system.

 

[year of the cat]

Too long ago but Im not sure everyone was hoping for JS. Boak was the pre-draft expectation.

Boak was the expectation but only because it was assumed that Selwood would have gone earlier.

 

[Turbocat]

I'd be happy with any combination of those players you mentioned. As I've said before I don't think this draft is as bad as what we're being made to believe.

There's some underrated talent in this draft.

To me its the type of draft that good Recruitment teams should do well. It just seems so even that they all blend into each other.

 

[Turbocat]

Boak was the expectation but only because it was assumed that Selwood would have gone earlier.

Its that long ago that we would not get anywhere near him under todays rules.

 

[The rabbi]

Craig Byrnes picks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Can't see Brander getting past Richmond.

In a 'normal' draft I would agree a player of his quality to 22 is unlikely but remember this is a very 'skewed' draft as 7 clubs have 15 of the first 21 picks (Fremantle Carlton St Kilda WB WCE and Richmond all have 2 picks inside 21 and Brisbane have 3) and some of those clubs have very specific needs for e.g. Carlton need midfielders full stop St Kilda need mids with footskills Brisbane interestingly went to counter the go home issues last year by taking 3 kids who had played a lot of juniors together and a NT kid for the 4th (Cox) and so what they do at 1 may heavily shape a lot for example if it's Rayner they will probably try and take Fogarty with him if LDU they will probably want to take Bonar or Clark if Cerra they will probably look to take Stephenson or Garner as well (Hayes less likely I feel) if Dow they probably look to take O'Brien as well. And NT probably puts Bailey in Brisbane's mix). So point being I see a lot of factors that could skew the draft order more than in a normal year and this could see a few players drop a lot more spots than they should.

On the Brander-Richmond I think a lot depends on what WCE do re Allen. At this stage Clark 12 Allen 13 and Brander 17 might well be it but it only takes say one slider out of the top 10 (Stephenson and Bonar and possibly Fogarty look like the three who have been top 10 right the way through who might now slide) which makes Adelaide take them at 12, pushes Clark to WCE at 13 and then Richmond end up choosing Allen or even Hayes over Brander at 17. It's not that unlikely really.

More broadly if he gets to 22 I would take a long look while his form has been up and down this year I think there are real mitigating factors-the AFL taking him out the GWS zone fairly late in the piece has to have unsettled him somewhat and the Pios have seemed to throw him around in every position they have a problem CHB CHF even ruck which has affected his continuity and his school team has struggled for success this year. He wasn't touted by a lot of people as a top 3 pick 12 months ago for no reason and I see a lot of abilities that should translate well to the top level. And with him having boarded at Geelong the go home factor to NSW is probably very low.

The more I watch of Sam Taylor, the more I am sold on him for 22.

Very good size height and pace for a key position. Held his own against senior WAFL players all season playing good footy.

Bit worried he might be taken before our first pick.

Exceptionally good mark overhead and a great interceptor, has pace to burn as well.

I know you follow the draft a bit, do you think there is a chance he goes before our first pick?

I think it's unlikely I don't buy the Richmond argument I doubt they will take a KPD early (if they take Balta or Brander it will be to play them at CHF whereas Taylor presents more CHB) while they would like long term replacements for Rance and Astbury I think they have a decent enough defence to cover in the short term whereas any injury to Riewoldt or Nankervis and they are stuffed, if you have to have Hampson or Griffiths leading the line you might as well jump in the lake IMO (in terms of flag success) so I would be picking rucks or key forwards if I was them. The only two clubs I see as needing Taylor prior to 22 are Adelaide but they seem to prefer others and maybe Sydney but they haven't been linked to him at all. He's worth a top 22 pick but due to clubs needs I think he will slide a bit.

I think Taylor is worth a 20s pick the issue we will have to weigh up is strategy ie there are likely to be some pretty decent quality KPDs still left by 35/58 whereas by those picks all of the good key forwards and dynamic winger types are likely to be gone so we may be better off filling those first and a key back with a later pick even if we miss Taylor. I wouldn't have a problem taking him at 22/24 but I wouldn't do it ahead of Brander or Allen (I am not sure where I sit on Hayes I'd need to know more about his endurance I think) or O'Brien or Fogarty or Kelly or Bailey or Richards as they are all players that fill greater needs from where I sit. If they are all gone by 22 (and it's possible that happens) then I would take him but I still think the best strategy for us is probably to pick the best outside mid at 22 (O'Brien Kelly and Bailey lead the options there unless we bid on Naish also) and best key forward at 24 if one of Brander/Allen/Hayes is there (unless we reach for McCartin) and then look for a key back and a small forward at 35/58/72 purely because those are the sort of value types likely to be around for the later picks. For example if you went that way you might end up with a combined haul of O'Brien/Hayes/Bailey + Brander/Allen/Hayes and then Spargo/Miers/Daniels and Petty/Kreuger/Clavarino at 35 and 58 which for me is probably better combined value than say Taylor and OBrien/Kelly etc and then an inferior tall forward late draft, even though I am a Taylor fan. But the club may not do it that way it's hard to tell.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Craig Byrnes picks.

I am undecided on Hayes if we think we can fix his endurance problems he could fit hand in glove for us like Wright would have in 2014 if he slid one more pick, but that's a pretty big IF. I don't have the data the clubs would have to make an accurate call.

Bailey will be gone well before 36 and the noise seems to be McCartin will go 2nd/3rd round not 58. Also Wells said we won't be picking after 72.

 

[David the Cat]

I am undecided on Hayes if we think we can fix his endurance problems he could fit hand in glove for us like Wright would have in 2014 if he slid one more pick, but that's a pretty big IF. I don't have the data the clubs would have to make an accurate call.

Bailey will be gone well before 36 and the noise seems to be McCartin will go 2nd/3rd round not 58. Also Wells said we won't be picking after 72.

Could well be chosen by Geelong at 22/24......seems a Wells type player...real pace...good hands...hard tackler and creative. Foot skills need work but he's dynamic at the level he is playing at and has a ton of upside.

i hope we snaffle him.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Could well be chosen by Geelong at 22/24......seems a Wells type player...

I think so a lot depends on Brisbane is my gut feel they will probably have better mids than Bailey available at 15/18 but if they are looking to minimise go home factor again at NT kid could appeal to them over a similarly talented Vic player. But I think if he is there at 22 we would be keen.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

In a 'normal' draft I would agree a player of his quality to 22 is unlikely but remember this is a very 'skewed' draft as 7 clubs have 15 of the first 21 picks (Fremantle Carlton St Kilda WB WCE and Richmond all have 2 picks inside 21 and Brisbane have 3) and some of those clubs have very specific needs for e.g. Carlton need midfielders full stop St Kilda need mids with footskills Brisbane interestingly went to counter the go home issues last year by taking 3 kids who had played a lot of juniors together and a NT kid for the 4th (Cox) and so what they do at 1 may heavily shape a lot for example if it's Rayner they will probably try and take Fogarty with him if LDU they will probably want to take Bonar or Clark if Cerra they will probably look to take Stephenson or Garner as well (Hayes less likely I feel) if Dow they probably look to take O'Brien as well. And NT probably puts Bailey in Brisbane's mix). So point being I see a lot of factors that could skew the draft order more than in a normal year and this could see a few players drop a lot more spots than they should.

On the Brander-Richmond I think a lot depends on what WCE do re Allen. At this stage Clark 12 Allen 13 and Brander 17 might well be it but it only takes say one slider out of the top 10 (Stephenson and Bonar and possibly Fogarty look like the three who have been top 10 right the way through who might now slide) which makes Adelaide take them at 12, pushes Clark to WCE at 13 and then Richmond end up choosing Allen or even Hayes over Brander at 17. It's not that unlikely really.

More broadly if he gets to 22 I would take a long look while his form has been up and down this year I think there are real mitigating factors-the AFL taking him out the GWS zone fairly late in the piece has to have unsettled him somewhat and the Pios have seemed to throw him around in every position they have a problem CHB CHF even ruck which has affected his continuity and his school team has struggled for success this year. He wasn't touted by a lot of people as a top 3 pick 12 months ago for no reason and I see a lot of abilities that should translate well to the top level. And with him having boarded at Geelong the go home factor to NSW is probably very low.



I think it's unlikely I don't buy the Richmond argument I doubt they will take a KPD early (if they take Balta or Brander it will be to play them at CHF whereas Taylor presents more CHB) while they would like long term replacements for Rance and Astbury I think they have a decent enough defence to cover in the short term whereas any injury to Riewoldt or Nankervis and they are stuffed, if you have to have Hampson or Griffiths leading the line you might as well jump in the lake IMO (in terms of flag success) so I would be picking rucks or key forwards if I was them. The only two clubs I see as needing Taylor prior to 22 are Adelaide but they seem to prefer others and maybe Sydney but they haven't been linked to him at all. He's worth a top 22 pick but due to clubs needs I think he will slide a bit.

I think Taylor is worth a 20s pick the issue we will have to weigh up is strategy ie there are likely to be some pretty decent quality KPDs still left by 35/58 whereas by those picks all of the good key forwards and dynamic winger types are likely to be gone so we may be better off filling those first and a key back with a later pick even if we miss Taylor. I wouldn't have a problem taking him at 22/24 but I wouldn't do it ahead of Brander or Allen (I am not sure where I sit on Hayes I'd need to know more about his endurance I think) or O'Brien or Fogarty or Kelly or Bailey or Richards as they are all players that fill greater needs from where I sit. If they are all gone by 22 (and it's possible that happens) then I would take him but I still think the best strategy for us is probably to pick the best outside mid at 22 (O'Brien Kelly and Bailey lead the options there unless we bid on Naish also) and best key forward at 24 if one of Brander/Allen/Hayes is there (unless we reach for McCartin) and then look for a key back and a small forward at 35/58/72 purely because those are the sort of value types likely to be around for the later picks. For example if you went that way you might end up with a combined haul of O'Brien/Hayes/Bailey + Brander/Allen/Hayes and then Spargo/Miers/Daniels and Petty/Kreuger/Clavarino at 35 and 58 which for me is probably better combined value than say Taylor and OBrien/Kelly etc and then an inferior tall forward late draft, even though I am a Taylor fan. But the club may not do it that way it's hard to tell.

Excellent post, thanks for taking the effort to respond insightfully.

I can understand the juggling act of best available vs needs basis with our first pick being possibly eyed at a KF, would have thought that possibly they have their eyes on a key defender such as Sam Taylor for this years draft with the first pick which addresses a huge need as well for key defenders, then go after a key forward with their earlier pick next year in the first round, which is supposed to be filled with talented key position players ( you would know better than me if this is true).

At 22, do you think Taylor is best available? Or do you not rate him as the 22nd best and under?

Do you rate him the best key defender full stop in this draft?

He seemed to play exceptionally well against mature players, extremely good overhead against senior bodies which is a rare feature for a young kid moving up a weight class.

 

[CatRiot]

Lachie Fogarty would be a good selection for us as well... Quite quick, loves a goal, get's the pill, smart user. Fogarty was named in the Best in all 7 games he played in TAC level; and did pretty well at the Champs too. He also tackles a hell of a lot, and would provide serious forward pressure and kicks more than a goal a game.

If we got him and Bailey, that is some serious class added. Couple that with a Sam Taylor at 36 or Petty or Clavarino will be there at that pick; and we've made a seriously nice haul.

The thing is, Bailey is a better midfielder than Fogarty, and so if they think Bailey can play Forward to start his career, then we can look at another pick early instead of Fogarty.

 

[CatRiot]

Lachie Fogarty would be a good selection for us as well... Quite quick, loves a goal, get's the pill, smart user. Fogarty was named in the Best in all 7 games he played in TAC level; and did pretty well at the Champs too. He also tackles a hell of a lot, and would provide serious forward pressure and kicks more than a goal a game.

If we got him and Bailey, that is some serious class added. Couple that with a Sam Taylor at 36 or Petty or Clavarino will be there at that pick; and we've made a seriously nice haul.

The thing is, Bailey is a better midfielder than Fogarty, and so if they think Bailey can play Forward to start his career, then we can look at another pick early instead of Fogarty.

I guess if we get one of either Bailey or L Fogerty, then we can look at type like Murphy that can play all over the ground and provide a marking option and perhaps some outside class for team list balance. I think Murphy could turn into a Mitch Duncan type with time.

Sam Taylor is still the preferred option for a CHB role, but Petty's defensive record is pretty good in the contest as well.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Excellent post, thanks for taking the effort to respond insightfully.

I can understand the juggling act of best available vs needs basis with our first pick being possibly eyed at a KF, would have thought that possibly they have their eyes on a key defender such as Sam Taylor for this years draft with the first pick which addresses a huge need as well for key defenders, then go after a key forward with their earlier pick next year in the first round, which is supposed to be filled with talented key position players ( you would know better than me if this is true).

At 22, do you think Taylor is best available? Or do you not rate him as the 22nd best and under?

Do you rate him the best key defender full stop in this draft?

He seemed to play exceptionally well against mature players, extremely good overhead against senior bodies which is a rare feature for a young kid moving up a weight class.

I am not necessarily sure that KPD is a huge immediate need but I agree Taylor is a really good prospect and his performances at WAFL level are very encouraging. In terms of next year's draft the quality is better than this year's IMO if you get time go watch some Izak Rankine highlights online there is seriously some footage in there that reminds me of Judd in style. And there are some good talls so I think it will be a better quality batch for most types of player needs. The issue with the bolded bit is because of our F/S situation there is no guarantee we will have a first rounder next year. Ideally we want to have a live first rounder next year and then a heap of late picks to match bids (the club has already partially orchestrated this in this year's trade period) but there is no guarantee where guys will be bid so we can't assume we will have a first rounder for a KPF next year and we have to look at when and how we are going to solve that issue (we actually probably have more solutions at KPD than we do at KPF IMO).

I think Brander is slightly ahead of Taylor for mine (some clubs see him CHF some CHB) but other than that Taylor is the best KPD for me, I would take him over Naughton (most clubs may disagree) and Balta Petty etc although most of them are good. I rate him in the 15-25 range whether he is best available at 22 depends on who slides to that pick. But there isn't a lot of noise on clubs taking him in that range so while it only takes one club he might get to the 30s we will see.

 

[CatRiot]

I'm starting to lean towards taking a punt on Hugh Dixon @195cm as a Key Forward option with a later pick, like Pick 58, if he lasts that long. He just looks a good strong mark, and clean below knees, and left foot peg is ok. But most of all, he looks like the type of player that could do damage with limited possessions. He out marked Petty and Taylor in the contest a few times at the Champs.

I don't think Wooller will be around by Pick 58, and I'm really not sure I rate McCartin at all.

Go with something like this:

Pick 22 - L Fogarty, M Murphy, Brander.
Pick 24 - Z Bailey
Pick 36 - S Taylor
Pick 58 - H Dixon (assuming no Brander)

 

[bellpark]

I am not necessarily sure that KPD is a huge immediate need but I agree Taylor is a really good prospect and his performances at WAFL level are very encouraging. In terms of next year's draft the quality is better than this year's IMO if you get time go watch some Izak Rankine highlights online there is seriously some footage in there that reminds me of Judd in style. And there are some good talls so I think it will be a better quality batch for most types of player needs. The issue with the bolded bit is because of our F/S situation there is no guarantee we will have a first rounder next year. Ideally we want to have a live first rounder next year and then a heap of late picks to match bids (the club has already partially orchestrated this in this year's trade period) but there is no guarantee where guys will be bid so we can't assume we will have a first rounder for a KPF next year and we have to look at when and how we are going to solve that issue (we actually probably have more solutions at KPD than we do at KPF IMO).

I think Brander is slightly ahead of Taylor for mine (some clubs see him CHF some CHB) but other than that Taylor is the best KPD for me, I would take him over Naughton (most clubs may disagree) and Balta Petty etc although most of them are good. I rate him in the 15-25 range whether he is best available at 22 depends on who slides to that pick. But there isn't a lot of noise on clubs taking him in that range so while it only takes one club he might get to the 30s we will see.

Loving your level of detail on the draft in general PO. Having seen Petty play a couple of times, I can say that you won't be disappointed if we take him as the KPD instead of Taylor if either Taylor is gone, or we chose Petty. I think it must be the Taylor name as well that has people excited, but I think Petty plays a Harry Taylor game to a tee. Anyway, I think overall there are enough options with 22, 24 and 35 for us to get at least one if not two top 22 players, which makes me think it's not such a bad draft, rather one where you need to look carefully to find the true 'keepers' and I'll back our team to do that well.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I'm starting to lean towards taking a punt on Hugh Dixon @195cm as a Key Forward option with a later pick, like Pick 58, if he lasts that long. He just looks a good strong mark, and clean below knees, and left foot peg is ok. But most of all, he looks like the type of player that could do damage with limited possessions. He out marked Petty and Taylor in the contest a few times at the Champs.

I don't think Wooller will be around by Pick 58, and I'm really not sure I rate McCartin at all.

Go with something like this:

Pick 22 - L Fogarty, M Murphy, Brander.
Pick 24 - Z Bailey
Pick 36 - S Taylor
Pick 58 - H Dixon (assuming no Brander)

Murphy seems to be talked about in the teens but who knows if he slides, ditto Bailey and Fogarty. Btw small point but north need mids mids mids at 23 not talls so in the event Brander and a mid got to 22 you would take the mid first and Brander at 24 otherwise Bailey might go at 23.

Ideally I would like:
22- O'brien/Bailey/Fogarty/Kelly (I probably prefer Kelly the most if his interviews check out but I would be happy with any of the 4 as all have real pace and skill by foot). I wouldn't be against Ling either but I have the others ahead of him
24-Brander/Allen/Hayes hopefully one of the three is there (I would bid on Ballenden but I assume Brisbane will match).
35-Hopefully Taylor is here but if he is gone Petty Clavarino both appeal to me and I would consider Wooller (although it depends on 24 as if we get a player like Allen at 24 Wooller is then too similar a type at 36). If we go small here I would be very keen on both Miers and Spargo but I realise both will probably polarise people's opinions. Garner and Worpel will probably be best available here (along with Constable if he is still on the board) but I am not sure we really need either. If we really want McCartin this is probably where he goes.
58-best available small front half player, a Miers/Moore/Sambono/Daniels type.
72 I expect will be a PASS but Floyd looks draftable and I don't mind Butts either.