Your Ideal Draft Result

[Vader]

OK, we're not going to get our hands on the likes of Gibbs, Gumbleton, Hansen & co.

What would be your "ideal" draft result, with a touch of reality - the players should be available around the position you intend taking them in the draft.

For me:
#14: Kurt Tippett (KPP Fwd/Ruck)
#32: Jarryd Allen (KPP Fwd) or Mark Austin (KPP Defender) if Allen unavailable
#48: Justin Westhoff (KPP Fwd)
#65: Best midfielder remaining
#70: Best available or pass for PSD

I know that many subscribe to the school of thought that we should be going with the "best player available" with our first selection. Almost inevitably this appears to be a midfielder, with Hislop the one most commonly linked to the Crows.

I personally feel that we have drafted enough midfielders in recent drafts (VB, Knights, Douglas, Pfeiffer, Vince, Porps) but we have a gaping hole the ranks of our young KPPs (ie we have NONE). By not selecting a KPP with this selection, we forfeit any chance at getting one of the quality KPPs - by #32 we're looking at the 20th best KPP in the draft.

I seriously think that Adelaide would be going backwards if they relied on taking KPPs with the 2nd & 3rd picks, without taking one with the first selection as well.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I seriously think that Adelaide would be going backwards if they relied on taking KPPs with the 2nd & 3rd picks, without taking one with the first selection as well.

I strongly disagree. Why should be be picking up a player with pick 14 in the draft if we don't rate him to be a top 14 pick

That in itself would be a suicide type strategy that we have used in the past and been burnt more than once.

West Coast have shown in recent times that the best strategy is to pick the best available with your first pick and after that look at the needs more closely. West Coast, with their exceptional midfield (that has been one of the best for years now) have gone for the likes of Beau Waters and Bunga Hurn with their last 2 first round picks. Now those would have been the players that they were in least need off but they went for them because they were the best available.

ALWAYS go best available with your 1st round pick and then adjust your strategy later on in the draft. If we were to listen this board this time last year we would have taken Cleve Hughes (KPP) instead of Douglas. Not sure if the opinion is the same now

Our KPP stocks are still relatively young and of good quality. Hentschel, prior to his injury was really becoming the sort of player we hoped he would. Rutten was AA and Bock is a very good versatile tall. Those 3 blokes have come from PSD and Rookie List respectively.

Unless you are picking up right at the top where you can pick the cream of the crop, the KPP taken mid 1st round and early 2nd are generally a crap shoot. Like many talls, you have a much better strike rate early or late in the draft. Generally the 15-30ish range of draft picks have netted crap KPPs.

Pick 14: Best Available

The rest we should be flexible and adjust accordingly. As long as we end up with the mix of 3 KPP/2 other or 4KPP/1 other, I will be happy.

I think the most likely mix is 3 KPPs, 1 midfielder and 1 utility type.

 

[GoSarge]

I strongly disagree. Why should be be picking up a player with pick 14 in the draft if we don't rate him to be a top 14 pick

That in itself would be a suicide type strategy that we have used in the past and been burnt more than once.

West Coast have shown in recent times that the best strategy is to pick the best available with your first pick and after that look at the needs more closely. West Coast, with their exceptional midfield (that has been one of the best for years now) have gone for the likes of Beau Waters and Bunga Hurn with their last 2 first round picks. Now those would have been the players that they were in least need off but they went for them because they were the best available.

ALWAYS go best available with your 1st round pick and then adjust your strategy later on in the draft. If we were to listen this board this time last year we would have taken Cleve Hughes (KPP) instead of Douglas. Not sure if the opinion is the same now

Our KPP stocks are still relatively young and of good quality. Hentschel, prior to his injury was really becoming the sort of player we hoped he would. Rutten was AA and Bock is a very good versatile tall. Those 3 blokes have come from PSD and Rookie List respectively.

Unless you are picking up right at the top where you can pick the cream of the crop, the KPP taken mid 1st round and early 2nd are generally a crap shoot. Like many talls, you have a much better strike rate early or late in the draft. Generally the 15-30ish range of draft picks have netted crap KPPs.

Pick 14: Best Available

The rest we should be flexible and adjust accordingly. As long as we end up with the mix of 3 KPP/2 other or 4KPP/1 other, I will be happy.

I think the most likely mix is 3 KPPs, 1 midfielder and 1 utility type.

Agreed. Lets look at the balance of our squad.

With Roo, Edwards, Goody and Mcleod potentially only having 2-3 years left, I think building a quality midfield is just as important and probably more of an immediate issue.

Our KPP stocks, whilst also in need of fixing, are not even 30 yet and so we still have a bit of time before that becomes an issue.

The hardest part of drafting KPP types is the unpredictable nature in which their body will grow. I agree with Stiffy aswell that KPP's taken, say, between 15 and 35, probably have about the same strike rate as those taken 40 and 60. This is obviously due to the unpredictable way in which a boy will develop his frame in to a KPP monster. In 2001, Brooks and Polak were taken in the top 15 yet neither have delivered to their full potential. The same year, Hansen (38) and Waite (46) have performed well and Damon White (62) has been handy. Warren Tredrea is a good example aswell, skinny mobile type in the SANFL, huge monster in the AFL - not even Port could have predicted that.

Midfielders on the other hand, are a little more easy to assess in the early rounds of the draft.

 

[Mad Dog]

No point picking the 20th best player with pick #14.....just because they are a KPP and 14 to 19 are all midfielders.

First Round DP must be the best available talent - after that the talent evens out and the difference between 30 and 40 becomes very subjective.

#14 = Best Available

32 - KPP
48 - KPP
65 - KPP or mid depending on what #14 was.

70 = pass for PSD unless there's something we had our eye on left at that stage.

 

[Gets!]

My ideal result:

14 - Tom Hislop
32 - Jack Riewoldt
47- Bachar Houli
62- Justin Westhoff

 

[GoSarge]

My ideal result:

14 - Tom Hislop
32 - Jack Riewoldt
47- Bachar Houli
62- Justin Westhoff

Something like that I'd be happy with. Good mix of mids and KPP's

Maybe a fifth pick on Patful to add some immediate KPP depth to cover Hentschell and Biglands.

 

[David_Brent]

My ideal result:

14 - Tom Hislop
32 - Jack Riewoldt
47- Bachar Houli
62- Justin Westhoff

Ambitous to say the least

Dont be fooled by Weavers phantom draft. Both Houli and Riewoldt will go in the top 25.

 

[KUNG FU]

Very hopeful Gets! I suppose I probably am as well...

14 - N Brown
32 - J Allen
47 - G. Urqhart
62 - J Westhoff

 

[Vader]

My ideal result:

14 - Tom Hislop
32 - Jack Riewoldt
47- Bachar Houli
62- Justin Westhoff

IMHO, this would be a disastrous result. Hislop & Westhoff I have no problems with, it's the selections of Riewoldt and Houli I object to.

From what I have read, Reiwoldt is not a true KPP - he's more a tall flanker. We need true KPP types, preferably a gorilla forward.

Houli is a midfielder. Having taken Hislop (also a midfielder) with our first selection, I fail to see why we would be taking another one with our 3rd selection. We need TALLS from this draft.

Very hopeful Gets! I suppose I probably am as well...

14 - N Brown
32 - J Allen
47 - G. Urqhart
62 - J Westhoff

I could live with that quite comfortably.

Brown is probably more likely with our first selection than Tippett to be honest. Most people seem to rate him as going around the 10-20 range, whereas Tippett generally seems to be going 20-30. I just like the idea of a 200cm forward, potentially a gorilla, with a reputation for kicking accuracy.

 

[Gets!]

It was the 'ideal' result wasn't it

But in all honesty, I will be happy with many combinations....as long as they include young Hislop....seriously I saw him in the champs and he stood out as the best midfielder to me. Also seen him in some VFL matches...Cossie is mini boof....and Hislop would be mini Roo.

 

[Gets!]

From what I have read, Reiwoldt is not a true KPP - he's more a tall flanker. We need true KPP types, preferably a gorilla forward.

I have seen him play on several occasions in the VFL, against Key defenders and he has beaten them.

He is 193cm, 80 something kilos and obviously still growing.

Bock is a KPP at 193cm....yet Riewoldt isn't?

 

[Cap]

I have seen him play on several occasions in the VFL, against Key defenders and he has beaten them.

He is 193cm, 80 something kilos and obviously still growing.

Bock is a KPP at 193cm....yet Riewoldt isn't?

I think they are refering to his style of play not just his build

 

[Vader]

I strongly disagree. Why should be be picking up a player with pick 14 in the draft if we don't rate him to be a top 14 pick

That in itself would be a suicide type strategy that we have used in the past and been burnt more than once.

West Coast have shown in recent times that the best strategy is to pick the best available with your first pick and after that look at the needs more closely. West Coast, with their exceptional midfield (that has been one of the best for years now) have gone for the likes of Beau Waters and Bunga Hurn with their last 2 first round picks. Now those would have been the players that they were in least need off but they went for them because they were the best available.

ALWAYS go best available with your 1st round pick and then adjust your strategy later on in the draft. If we were to listen this board this time last year we would have taken Cleve Hughes (KPP) instead of Douglas. Not sure if the opinion is the same now

Our KPP stocks are still relatively young and of good quality. Hentschel, prior to his injury was really becoming the sort of player we hoped he would. Rutten was AA and Bock is a very good versatile tall. Those 3 blokes have come from PSD and Rookie List respectively.

Unless you are picking up right at the top where you can pick the cream of the crop, the KPP taken mid 1st round and early 2nd are generally a crap shoot. Like many talls, you have a much better strike rate early or late in the draft. Generally the 15-30ish range of draft picks have netted crap KPPs.

Pick 14: Best Available

The rest we should be flexible and adjust accordingly. As long as we end up with the mix of 3 KPP/2 other or 4KPP/1 other, I will be happy.

I think the most likely mix is 3 KPPs, 1 midfielder and 1 utility type.

I'm not necessarily advocating taking players way out of order. Taking the 20th ranked player with #14 is obviously foolish. But if the 14th ranked player is a mid and 16 is a KPP, I'd take the KPP in the blink of an eye given our situation.

You might want to re-examine our KPP stocks as well. Ages at start of next season given in brackets.

Rutten (23) - Great at FB. Some people want to draft another tall defender so we can move him forward. Shocking idea. With the sole exception of his first game, he has been found wanting every time we've tried playing him in the forward line. I like the idea of having cover in case he gets injured, but that's where that line of thought should end.

Bock (23) - Young and exciting, capable of playing both ends of the ground.

Hentschel (24) - Badly injured, may never return and certainly won't play in 2007. IF he does return, his mobility is likely to be significantly impaired. Prior to injury, his mobility was his greatest asset. Loss of mobility is likely to mean that he will be better suited to defence rather than the forward line.

Stevens (25) - Mediocre defender, truly awful when tried in the forward line.

McGregor (26) - Mediocre KPP, can play either end of the ground. One of our many 3rd tall forwards.

Perrie (27) - Mediocre 3rd tall forward.

Welsh (28) - Average (better than mediocre) 2nd tall forward.

Things to note:

• The tall defenders are significantly younger than the tall forwards.
• The tall forwards are average at best, we need quality. The only reason they (other than Welsh) continue to get a game is the lack of a better alternative.
• None of the KPPs are younger than 23.

KPPs, especially quality forwards, need to be a priority.

 

[GoSarge]

I'm not necessarily advocating taking players way out of order. Taking the 20th ranked player with #14 is obviously foolish. But if the 14th ranked player is a mid and 16 is a KPP, I'd take the KPP in the blink of an eye given our situation.
KPPs, especially quality forwards, need to be a priority.

I think people are arguing different things here.

Firstly I completely agree that KPP types should be a priority, perhaps not the top priority. Now, top quality forwards will probably go in the top 10. Gumbleton and Hansen are examples. There is always a slider of sorts, Grundy is the most recent example I can think of.

What I am saying is that it is easier to get lucky with KPP types in the later stages of the draft than it is with midfielders. Conversely, it is easier to get it right with midfielders EARLIER in the draft than it is with KPP types.

Whilst your emphasis is on drafting KPP's, with good reason, we still have not identified any true midfield talent capable of consistently getting 25 touches per game. On potential they look like they'll make it, in reality, they haven't proven it.

The part in bold, I disagree with. Best available talent at 14 should be taken.

 

[ClayBlue87]

Lol wouldnt you have prefered to come last to get Gibss. He aint going back to SA!!!

I think you should grab Tippet, early pick ruckmen are difficult, but you could be in serious trouble with rucks this year. (Not as bad us us though)

 

[- PC -]

Going back on Stiffys example...WC have 2 midfielders they can either use or trade for KPPs ..let someone else develop the suicide pick KPPs

 

[GoSarge]

Ambitous to say the least

Dont be fooled by Weavers phantom draft. Both Houli and Riewoldt will go in the top 25.

So you can say categorically that Weaver is further away from the mark than you are ? Why should we believe you over Weaver or anyone else for that matter ?

For us to take you seriously, please tell us what AFL recrutiing team you are affiliated with, how many under 18 TAC cups you watched/reviewed and your assessment of the juniors (and their results) at the Draft camp.

 

[KUNG FU]

Lol wouldnt you have prefered to come last to get Gibss. He aint going back to SA!!!

I think you should grab Tippet, early pick ruckmen are difficult, but you could be in serious trouble with rucks this year. (Not as bad us us though)

Nah, I'd rather win games thanks! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!

We're not picking rucks. We have Hudson & M&M (will become a very dominant pair in the next 3-4 years) & Griffen this year. Biglands could be back in 2008. That'll do us nicely for the time being. Its not a priority at the moment. When will you non-Crows supporters stop trying to give us advice on our ruck stocks?

 

[Vader]

Lol wouldnt you have prefered to come last to get Gibss. He aint going back to SA!!!

I think you should grab Tippet, early pick ruckmen are difficult, but you could be in serious trouble with rucks this year. (Not as bad us us though)

Rucks are the one area which Adelaide will NOT be specifically targetting.

Yes, we lost Clarke to retirement and Biglands to a knee injury. Yes, our ruck division will have a totally different look to 2006.

However, even with Clarke & Biglands gone we still have Hudson, Maric, Meesen and Griffin. The latter three are all 20 years old. I don't see the need to draft a 17/18yo ruckman when we have three keen to play, each with 2 years more development.

The fact that Tippett can ruck is incidental - I like the idea of having a 200cm gorilla forward, the ability to have him ruck part time is a bonus.

 

[David_Brent]

So you can say categorically that Weaver is further away from the mark than you are ? Why should we believe you over Weaver or anyone else for that matter ?

For us to take you seriously, please tell us what AFL recrutiing team you are affiliated with, how many under 18 TAC cups you watched/reviewed and your assessment of the juniors (and their results) at the Draft camp.

I am based in Perth, I do have close links with a recruiting team. Riewoldts 20m sprint time is 3.11. Thats all your getting because I am not normally in the habit of breaking a contract.

 

[Mong]

ALWAYS go best available with your 1st round pick and then adjust your strategy later on in the draft. If we were to listen this board this time last year we would have taken Cleve Hughes (KPP) instead of Douglas. Not sure if the opinion is the same now

Yeah, and three years ago we would have taken Brent Hall.

 

[Mong]

Lol wouldnt you have prefered to come last to get Gibss. He aint going back to SA!!!

Good point. I think we should come last every single year for all eternity. Then we'd get the top draft pick every year. How good would that be?!!!!!!!

 

[Stiffy_18]

I'm not necessarily advocating taking players way out of order. Taking the 20th ranked player with #14 is obviously foolish. But if the 14th ranked player is a mid and 16 is a KPP, I'd take the KPP in the blink of an eye given our situation.

You might want to re-examine our KPP stocks as well. Ages at start of next season given in brackets.

Rutten (23) - Great at FB. Some people want to draft another tall defender so we can move him forward. Shocking idea. With the sole exception of his first game, he has been found wanting every time we've tried playing him in the forward line. I like the idea of having cover in case he gets injured, but that's where that line of thought should end.

Bock (23) - Young and exciting, capable of playing both ends of the ground.

Hentschel (24) - Badly injured, may never return and certainly won't play in 2007. IF he does return, his mobility is likely to be significantly impaired. Prior to injury, his mobility was his greatest asset. Loss of mobility is likely to mean that he will be better suited to defence rather than the forward line.

Stevens (25) - Mediocre defender, truly awful when tried in the forward line.

McGregor (26) - Mediocre KPP, can play either end of the ground. One of our many 3rd tall forwards.

Perrie (27) - Mediocre 3rd tall forward.

Welsh (28) - Average (better than mediocre) 2nd tall forward.

Things to note:

• The tall defenders are significantly younger than the tall forwards.
• The tall forwards are average at best, we need quality. The only reason they (other than Welsh) continue to get a game is the lack of a better alternative.
• None of the KPPs are younger than 23.

KPPs, especially quality forwards, need to be a priority.

Firstly, you seriously misunderstood my point of argument with the KPPs and secondly your rating of those players is rather subjective. A mediocre KPP doesn't play 130 odd AFL games for a side that has regularly made the finals and was a show in a number of prelim finals with him as the major piece of the spine.

Anyway, what I was referring to is that we seem to have a knack of finding good KPPs later in the draft. Rutten is an AA player and was a rookie list selection and still young with plenty of footy ahead of him. Bock was also a rookie listed player and is one of the most versatile talls in the game. The player of Hentschel's talent we picked up in the PSD.

If a KPP is ranked as #16 then we shouldn't pick him up with pick 14. Why the hell would you want to disadvantage yourself like that when the draft itself is punishing those that perform well . With all due respects, that is the sort of strategy that NEVER works, whether its in the draft, business interests, organizational structure on anwhere. You ALWAYS go for the best.

Now, I do agree that we need to get KPPs into the system in this draft but I am not going to sell my sould to get a player that has question marks over him just because he happens to fit a need. Thats Laurence Angwin - Josh Krueger Board material.

We both agree that we need KPP but we disagree in the approach we should take to get those players. If we had pick 2 or 3, my argument would be strongly for taking a KPP because you are likely to get a real gun. Now if I am at pick 14 and there is this midfielder who can be a Daniel Kerr type (hypothetically) and this KPP that can be say Ben Holland in his prime like (another hypothetical), I sure as hell would be going for a Daniel Kerr because his potential and success strike rate would be higher.

You take larger gambles with your later picks but you ALWAYS try to minimize the risk with you first round picks.

Getting KPP for the sake of getting KPP will get you nowhere.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Lol wouldnt you have prefered to come last to get Gibss. He aint going back to SA!!!

I think you should grab Tippet, early pick ruckmen are difficult, but you could be in serious trouble with rucks this year. (Not as bad us us though)

And wouldn't you prefer to get laid that troll other team's board?!

 

[Stiffy_18]

Yeah, and three years ago we would have taken Brent Hall.

Not according to those whose job it is to actually rate talent. My opinion of Brent Hall was overinflated no doubt but doesn't that just prove the point that us posters know sweet ******** all when it comes to rating the talent in the draft.

According to the Draft and Trading Board, there are 50 players who are top 10 certainties. Simple maths suggests thats impossible