your must-have from each category

[GoNickGill]

Cox is the only must have in DT. I reapeat the ONLY must have. There is no one as good as him in his position. There are alternatives for all other positions.

Do not argue Hille's case.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

Goddard, Gibbs and Deledio

There is no must-have for the ruck position. Cox is priced at an average of 107. I find it extremely unlikely he'll manage that again, plus the losses at the top of the end are magnified by the way the magic number changes. If one of my other ruck options fails and I have the chance, I'll make the upgrade. But only if he's dropped the $80-100k that he should.

 

[panga]

C. Cornes, Pendlebury, Didak.

Cox isn't a must have, too expensive... Will upgrade if timing/price is right.

 

[Jorda5910]

C. Cornes, Pendlebury, Didak.

Cox isn't a must have, too expensive... Will upgrade if timing/price is right.

Im thinking same thing, i think he might drop a little bit and i try pick him up later on.

Backs - Hodge
Mids - Ablett
Rucks - If had to choose, Cox
Forwards - Pav

 

[favourites]

Goddard
Ablett
Cox
Didak

 

[SydneySwans]

Both theories exist mate.

I dont want to have to pull all the numbers, but here a few examples

Name, First Year average, Second year average, Third year average

Deledio, 61, 77, 77
Cooney, 47, 78, 82
Jones, 66, 70, 71 (both 2nd and 3rd yr blues? lol)
Thomas, 62, 76, 73
Mitchell, 47, 69, 67
Griffen, 54, 67, 54
Birchall, 70, 79, 79
Pearce, 52, 75, 78

Is that enough to convince you there is such thing as third year blues as well?

Doesnt convince me, all it shows is those players werent good enough to improve in the 3 years to premiums.
Gibbs has a 2nd year average higher than any of those players (87) and shows no signs of slowing down
look at
bartel 49,49,92 (admitidly played max 13 games in a season)
judd 64, 75, 82
pav 68,79,88
(more recent)
pendle 62, 81, 87
annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd MURPHY 75, 74, 97

i can see reasoning behind 2nd year blues but not 3rd year

 

[SydneySwans]

and in relavence to the thread

Back- Cornes for value/Fischer for scores
Mid - Ablett/Bartel/Corey any of
Ruck-obvious
Forward-pav

 

[Lakey91]

Doesnt convince me, all it shows is those players werent good enough to improve in the 3 years to premiums.
Gibbs has a 2nd year average higher than any of those players (87) and shows no signs of slowing down
look at
bartel 49,49,92 (admitidly played max 13 games in a season)
judd 64, 75, 82
pav 68,79,88
(more recent)
pendle 62, 81, 87
annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd MURPHY 75, 74, 97

i can see reasoning behind 2nd year blues but not 3rd year

No i disagree, and i think murphy, bartel is different as he had the second year blues then broke out!

Failure to improve, for me, is the blues!

Each of these players started there career well and were high draft picks: deledio, cooney, thomas, jones, pearce, birchall, griffen. Each had third year blues/plateau!

Third year blues go like this for me:

- Player put in team but given bit of an introductory role in first year (ie gibbs in backline).
-Second year they move more into midfield and a ball gathering role and perform well (HB and in middle).
- Third year they get more attention due to how how influencial they were late in season in MF role.

Also, gibbs higher average only inclines me to think he could be even more subject to a plateau in his third year, due to the fact that to maintain an even higher scoringg level will be tough, especially as oppositions take more notice of him (even get a bit of a tag in round two of nab).

Now i dont think gibbs will do this, but i think to dismiss the obvious proof that the third year blues exist is a bit blind.

 

[SydneySwans]

Theres always exceptions to every rule however to say that 3rd year blues are a common feature in dt like 2nd year blues is wrong.

3rd year blues don't exist becuase when people dont do as well in their third year it is probably becuase they arent cut out to. Its just the same as picking any other player (no matter how experienced they are), will they have a breakout year or not.

 

[Lakey91]

I dont understand that post?

There are exceptions, but the second and third year blues BOTH exist. Wasnt what i just posted enough to prove this two you?

3rd year blues don't exist becuase when people dont do as well in their third year it is probably becuase they arent cut out to

What so deledio, mitchell, cooney arnt "cut out to"?

 

[Saint KFC]

I think that SydneySwan's problem is a semantics one with the word 'blues'

 

[bones25]

Cornes/1 of Fisher/Goddard
Ablett/ 1 of Swan/Gibbs
Cox
Deledio/Didak

 

[Decipher]

Goddard, Gibbs and Deledio

There is no must-have for the ruck position. Cox is priced at an average of 107. I find it extremely unlikely he'll manage that again, plus the losses at the top of the end are magnified by the way the magic number changes. If one of my other ruck options fails and I have the chance, I'll make the upgrade. But only if he's dropped the $80-100k that he should.

Cox wont drop 80-100k.
Maybe 50k if we are lucky at some points.

The other reason for picking him is he isnt injury prone (despite his foot he didnt miss games so it doesnt count), he is a strong captain option and is the drop in $50k worth the trade? To me I value a trade more than swapping a keeper to a keeper unless your plannng to start a Kreuzer or similar and upgrade when you downgrade a rookie at rounds 7-8.

As such I think you either start with Cox or you dont get him at all.
If you start a Hille/Ottens or any other $300k + ruck combo they are keepers and to me I see it as a trade best spent elsewhere.

 

[SydneySwans]

I dont understand that post?

There are exceptions, but the second and third year blues BOTH exist. Wasnt what i just posted enough to prove this two you?



What so deledio, mitchell, cooney arnt "cut out to"?

yeh sorry re-read it didnt come across well,
what im saying is that it is common for 2nd year blues but alot less common for 3rd year blues...
So why then make decisions on players because you think they will have 3rd year blues....why isnt there 4th yr and 6th yr blues? you could find any year a player hasnt done well and called it X yr blues.

I see your point but its a too general rule to consider

 

[Lakey91]

what im saying is that it is common for 2nd year blues but alot less common for 3rd year blues...

Wheres the proof in that? Can you list them? So far i provided 5-6 high draft picks who had third year blues, proving for me that it is common.

So why then make decisions on players because you think they will have 3rd year blues....why isnt there 4th yr and 6th yr blues? you could find any year a player hasnt done well and called it X yr blues.

I see your point but its a too general rule to consider

I generally dont let the second/third year blues influence who i will pick in my team. Almost all the players i pick have upside IMO. Looking at junior years stats is a good idea as it shows what sort of numbers players pulled (whats natural for them?).

Lets just agree to disagree.

 

[Funkalicous]

What about jumping on players who have already suffered from 2nd year blues? Take Marc Murphy for example:
2006 Ave: 75.3
2007 Ave: 74.9
2008 Ave: 97.1

That's a big jump! Maybe there's value in a Hansen, Proud, Everitt, Sellar, Armitage this year.

 

[Lakey91]

Yes, exactly! And this is one way to pick breakouts. Look at the players i mentioned averages after their plateau in third year:

Deledio 97.5
Cooney 91.3
Jones ???
Thomas ???
Mitchell 87.5
Griffen ???

Pearce is a beauty though, as he shows how it can go wrong, he averaged 73.5

But, there are other prerequisites in my mind: must have been major ball winners in junior days, must be elite athletes (pace and endurance) and must be firmly in best 22. Most of them are often high draft picks too.

 

[Virgil]

What about jumping on players who have already suffered from 2nd year blues? Take Marc Murphy for example:
2006 Ave: 75.3
2007 Ave: 74.9
2008 Ave: 97.1

That's a big jump! Maybe there's value in a Hansen, Proud, Everitt, Sellar, Armitage this year.

If Proud can get a regular spot I think he'd make a pretty good pick, but I don't really like the rest of those. Key position players almost always take longer to hit top scores as well.

 

[swans4eva]

STAY ON THE THREAD! WHO CARES ABOUT "2ND YEAR BLUES" lol

Backs- Goddard
Mids- Ablett/swan/corey/bartel- one of them
Rucks- None probs dan currie for value
Forwards- Deledio ( i currently have him in my midfield)

 

[charlie_liv]

BAC - Goddard
MID - Steven Salopek
RUC - Cox
FWD - Mathew Stokes

 

[Ausyid]

STAY ON THE THREAD! WHO CARES ABOUT "2ND YEAR BLUES" lol

A lot more value discussing that than stating who our "must haves" are.