Preview Preliminary final - Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, MCG, 20 September 2014 @ 4.45pm

[Gary Conan Ayres]

I really don't understand all the worry.

I over heard Luke hodge talking to the team, this is a direct quote "I hope Port come out and kick the first seven goals" I didn't need to listen any more after that as I knew the Hawks had it under control.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

What is this 'getting the jump' crap?

They didn't even jump Freo.
They didn't jump any top four side at all during the season (the occasional first quarter win, but only ever by a goal or two tops).

If Port jumps us, as in 3-4 goal head start or quarter time lead, it will be a massive outlier from how they've performed all season.

We might start a bit sluggish due to the week off. They might start well in a continuation of last week's form. But those suggesting port will shoot out of the blocks are betting on a horse that hasn't won at all this year.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

Definitely. But the trade was done without the expectation that Ceglar would breakout like he has.

I still think he's best 22 but so are Ceglar and Hale currently and our structure doesn't really allow for 3 ruckman who aren't particularly quick.

Given Hale will likely play on next year (he's contracted after all) the club may look at working on a new structure that allows all 3 to fit in. Alternatively they could just manage all 3 ruckman through out the season as injury and form dictates. Best 2 get a possible finals journey, the other plays it out in the VFL.
We can't afford to have him or Ceglar play the majority of next season at Box Hill though. That's when players start to look at other clubs.

Posting response to this in a more relevant thread.

Thinking on this a bit, and I think the big call needs to be made to bring McEvoy back.

I like Ceglar and am pleased about his progress but he wasn't brought in to the club to be the #1 ruckman and that is what McEvoy is.

I know the situation now is a bit more complicated. For example:

In terms of tap ruckman, Hale is slightly better than McEvoy atm
In terms of resting forward, Hale is far superior than McEvoy atm

That means Hale has to be in the side, which is why it's down to Ceglar v McEvoy.

McEvoy is a better ruckman, which means Hale can stay forward longer. I think he's better too at marking and versatility around the ground, but worse at goal.

He is clearly too good for VFL. He is in form, which I think will have the most significant improvement on his off-ball actions (eg marking) so he needs a recall,

End of the day dropping Cegs before the Prelim is going to be that marginally better than dropping him before a Grand Final (if that happens).

Ceglar will still be central to plans next season and putting pressure on both Hale and McEvoy. Then if Hale retires, Grimley could step up and be the "Ceglar" of 2015.

 

[Hawkk]

What is this 'getting the jump' crap?

They didn't even jump Freo.
They didn't jump any top four side at all during the season (the occasional first quarter win, but only ever by a goal or two tops).

If Port jumps us, as in 3-4 goal head start or quarter time lead, it will be a massive outlier from how they've performed all season.

We might start a bit sluggish due to the week off. They might start well in a continuation of last week's form. But those suggesting port will shoot out of the blocks are betting on a horse that hasn't won at all this year.

Strictly looking at the worst case scenario that's all.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Strictly looking at the worst case scenario that's all.

Fair enough - it's a final and anything can happen. History said that top 4 teams don't go out in straight sets but here we are.

 

[MrFujiMoto]

We are a decent starting side and good finishing side. Our first is our worst qtr but we tend to come out strong after half time at the moment. Port have won the same amount of 1st qtrs as us, except that we score more than they do across all qtrs.

 

[Hawkk]

Fair enough - it's a final and anything can happen. History said that top 4 teams don't go out in straight sets but here we are.

Agree. I guess my point was that if you look at the numbers provided, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have effectively mirrored each other for quarters won in the second half of games. Given we've had the weeks rest I can see the biggest threat for us being the 1st quarter. If we find ourselves a few goals down at quarter time then it is most definitely game on!

Take the last 3 PF's we've played...

2011 - Coll 2.3 vs. Haw 2.4 (without the week rest)
2012 - Haw 2.6 vs. Adel 4.1 (with the week rest)
2013 - Haw 3.5 vs. Geel 4.0 (with the week rest)

In all PF finals we've started off inaccurate in front of goal (5.11 to 8.1 in the last 2 PF's alone), with the rested side behind at 1/4 time in each of the PF's

 

[MrFujiMoto]

Agree. I guess my point was that if you look at the numbers provided, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have effectively mirrored each other for quarters won in the second half of games. Given we've had the weeks rest I can see the biggest threat for us being the 1st quarter. If we find ourselves a few goals down at quarter time then it is most definitely game on!

Take the last 3 PF's we've played...

2011 - Coll 2.3 vs. Haw 2.4 (without the week rest)
2012 - Haw 2.6 vs. Adel 4.1 (with the week rest)
2013 - Haw 3.5 vs. Geel 4.0 (with the week rest)

In all PF finals we've started off inaccurate in front of goal (5.11 to 8.1 in the last 2 PF's alone), with the rested side behind at 1/4 time in each of the PF's

Last year was a bad start in front of goal for sure. Doubled their scoring shots and went in to the break behind. IF we kick accurately we should be able to put this to bed. Port's a far bigger chance to win based on how we convert than them purely outplaying us. We need to take our chances, whenever we have done that this year we have put sides away, regardless of who they were.

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

...Thinking on this a bit, and I think the big call needs to be made to bring McEvoy back....

Now that Sandi is out of the finals McEvoy comes back into contention. Supercoach is flawed but it is a metric, it has McEvoy way in front so he does have a case for selection. Hale is easily the best forward/ruck in the comp so he is safe.

I would have Cegs as our most effective tap ruck but Hit Outs in general are a fairly useless stat. Where I prefer Cegs is his defensive work. Last match where he corralled Rivers and caused a turn over is something I do not believe McEvoy can do.

BHH form for our rucks does not shed much light other than they are all too good for VFL. McEvoy named in best 4 times from 6 games, Cegs named 5 times in 8 games and Haler got 1 best from 2 games. I saw that other game and Haler was stiff not to be in the best.

 

[Jones Boy]

Agree. I guess my point was that if you look at the numbers provided, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have effectively mirrored each other for quarters won in the second half of games. Given we've had the weeks rest I can see the biggest threat for us being the 1st quarter. If we find ourselves a few goals down at quarter time then it is most definitely game on!

Take the last 3 PF's we've played...

2011 - Coll 2.3 vs. Haw 2.4 (without the week rest)
2012 - Haw 2.6 vs. Adel 4.1 (with the week rest)
2013 - Haw 3.5 vs. Geel 4.0 (with the week rest)

In all PF finals we've started off inaccurate in front of goal (5.11 to 8.1 in the last 2 PF's alone), with the rested side behind at 1/4 time in each of the PF's

Yes but we have worked on our goal kicking as a KPI in a very structured fashion which should address those poor conversion rates . . .

 

[badgrill]

Agree. I guess my point was that if you look at the numbers provided, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have effectively mirrored each other for quarters won in the second half of games. Given we've had the weeks rest I can see the biggest threat for us being the 1st quarter. If we find ourselves a few goals down at quarter time then it is most definitely game on!

Take the last 3 PF's we've played...

2011 - Coll 2.3 vs. Haw 2.4 (without the week rest)
2012 - Haw 2.6 vs. Adel 4.1 (with the week rest)
2013 - Haw 3.5 vs. Geel 4.0 (with the week rest)

In all PF finals we've started off inaccurate in front of goal (5.11 to 8.1 in the last 2 PF's alone), with the rested side behind at 1/4 time in each of the PF's

Those last 2 - if we kick straight (as hopefully we should with our more accurate kicking this season), we're about 3 to 4 goals up at 1/4 time.

 

[TazHawk15]

Now that Sandi is out of the finals McEvoy comes back into contention. .

I read it the other way round.

Now that Sandi is out I think this lessens McEvoy's chances.

 

[Hawkk]

Yes but we have worked on our goal kicking as a KPI in a very structured fashion which should address those poor conversion rates . . .

Preliminary Final weekend it Preliminary Final weekend though!

You can't train for this...

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

I read it the other way round.

Now that Sandi is out I think this lessens McEvoy's chances.

I don't think any of our guys can beat Sandi but they should be able to mitigate his influence. McEvoy was insipid against Sandi and was dropped. McEvoy got flogged by Sandi when he was with the Saints so he does have priors.

 

[hawksalltheway]

I read it the other way round.

Now that Sandi is out I think this lessens McEvoy's chances.

yep me too -- i dont think they will bring him in this week...but if Cegs has a quiet game, big boy may get the infamous GF call up....and if he does, i might throw a sneaky pineapple on him for old Normie....just got a feeling, like i did with hodgey in 08, broken ribs and all!

 

[hawksalltheway]

Preliminary Final weekend it Preliminary Final weekend though!

You can't train for this...

our advantage is all our boys have been to a prelim or three....we are primed for this...no excuses

like some others have said, i to feel our resolve this year has been phenomenal, and out of all our great recent seasons, there just seems to be something different about this one....like we have got all the monkeys off our back....here's hoping anyway

 

[MrFujiMoto]

I don't think any of our guys can beat Sandi but they should be able to mitigate his influence. McEvoy was insipid against Sandi and was dropped. McEvoy got flogged by Sandi when he was with the Saints so he does have priors.

I'm with you, if you were going to get beaten in the ruck anyway you may as well use your strength in other areas to even up the contest. I was hoping we played Cegs against Sandi. Push forward hard to run Sandi off his legs and Cegs is far quicker off the mark to defend Sandi when he goes forward.
Against Lobbe I think we stick with Hale and Cegs. Run Lobbe into the ground and let Hale take advantage of him in the last deep forward.

 

[Brishawk]

Now that Sandi is out of the finals McEvoy comes back into contention. Supercoach is flawed but it is a metric, it has McEvoy way in front so he does have a case for selection. Hale is easily the best forward/ruck in the comp so he is safe.

I would have Cegs as our most effective tap ruck but Hit Outs in general are a fairly useless stat. Where I prefer Cegs is his defensive work. Last match where he corralled Rivers and caused a turn over is something I do not believe McEvoy can do.

BHH form for our rucks does not shed much light other than they are all too good for VFL. McEvoy named in best 4 times from 6 games, Cegs named 5 times in 8 games and Haler got 1 best from 2 games. I saw that other game and Haler was stiff not to be in the best.

This is exactly why he is preferred in my opinion. He is effectively an extra player at ground level when compared to McEvoy.

 

[MrFujiMoto]

This is exactly why he is preferred in my opinion. He is effectively an extra player at ground level when compared to McEvoy.

Yep McEvoy can run all day but he is a lumbering Ruckman. The fact that Hale, the preferred ruck forward when in form, is also a lumbering type means it is hard for the MC to select both of them in the same side, especially against a quicker side.

I think while Hale is the ruck / forward, it makes it hard to justify McEvoy unless he gets a little quicker or nimble. That's part of the reason I hope we can keep hold of Lowden. Very mobile and quick but has the size and ability to also be a no.1 ruck. I would be surprised to see McEvoy come in this week against Port, or next week if we make it against the Roos. He might come in if we got through to play the Swans possibly.

 

[Taskmaster]

I don't think any of our guys can beat Sandi but they should be able to mitigate his influence. McEvoy was insipid against Sandi and was dropped. McEvoy got flogged by Sandi when he was with the Saints so he does have priors.

Put Poppy in the ruck against Sandilands. Cause hit outs is a comple f..ken joke stat. Thats why our ruckman have an advantage, they actually know how to play the game and not just base a career on hit outs.........

 

[onthemoney]

I really don't understand all the worry.

I over heard Luke hodge talking to the team, this is a direct quote "I hope Port come out and kick the first seven goals" I didn't need to listen any more after that as I knew the Hawks had it under control.

haha solid post!

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Put Poppy in the ruck against Sandilands. Cause hit outs is a comple f..ken joke stat. Thats why our ruckman have an advantage, they actually know how to play the game and not just base a career on hit outs.........

Mate, that undersells Sandilands. He has spent his career tapping the ball down the throats of his on ballers. You need to play a ruckman who is not afraid to jump into him and try to negate this. And then that guy has to run off him all day.

I agree that hit-outs are a largely useless stat. Most ruckmen are too busy trying to get first hands on the pill without concerning themselves where they actually tap the ball. Sandilands knows exactly what he is doing in this area though and is an absolute champion of the game. Plus, he is no mug around the ground.

 

[Hoogmeister]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned on here before, but if we can win this game and outscore our opponents on the following Saturday, then Hawthorn will become the most successful club of the last 100 years.

 

[Hawkk]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned on here before but if we can win this game and outscore our opponents on the following Saturday, then Hawthorn will become the most successful club of the last 100 years.

Spot on. Equal with Carlton on 12 (the Blues won a flag in 1915). We'd take outright #1 in 2015 assuming the Blues don't salute.

Since 1925 we're joint #1

Hawthorn , Carlton , Melbourne 11
Essendon 10
Collingwood, Geelong 9
Richmond 8
Fitzroy 8
South Melbourne / Sydney, West Coast, Brisbane Lions 3
Adelaide 2
Port Adelaide, St Kilda, W Bulldogs 1
Brisbane Bears, Fremantle, University, GWS 0

Could be a topic worthy of taking to the Bay

 

[cryptor]

Agree. I guess my point was that if you look at the numbers provided, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have effectively mirrored each other for quarters won in the second half of games. Given we've had the weeks rest I can see the biggest threat for us being the 1st quarter. If we find ourselves a few goals down at quarter time then it is most definitely game on!

Take the last 3 PF's we've played...

2011 - Coll 2.3 vs. Haw 2.4 (without the week rest)
2012 - Haw 2.6 vs. Adel 4.1 (with the week rest)
2013 - Haw 3.5 vs. Geel 4.0 (with the week rest)

In all PF finals we've started off inaccurate in front of goal (5.11 to 8.1 in the last 2 PF's alone), with the rested side behind at 1/4 time in each of the PF's

Given we've made a measurable improvement to our goal conversion this stat has me excited. If we were to kick 6.2, 7.1 or 8.0 in the first quarter and keep Port to just a couple goals that would go a long way to putting them away early. Port only came back against Freo because they wasted their opportunities and then lost their own belief to keep running when Port got a run on.