MARCH Daily Punt....

[FallingLiefs]

Great run sole power. thought Peniaphobia honest and tough aswell.

Little disappointed in TTW on my one viewing of last 800m(on my phone). Missed parade footage so I can't really make a judgement on fitness either which I'm dark on. Will wait until I do recap later this week but I think TTW still poses an almighty threat in the QE. Anyone who saw him parade of the opinion he was a bit big? Rolling out first up under pressure against a third up genuine stayer no biggie in my book.

Surely Harp star for the Sheema, won't be having a bet as I just don't know enough but it is fantastic watching.

 

[Jugada]

Great run sole power. thought Peniaphobia honest and tough aswell.

Little disappointed in TTW on my one viewing of last 800m(on my phone). Missed parade footage so I can't really make a judgement on fitness either which I'm dark on. Will wait until I do recap later this week but I think TTW still poses an almighty threat in the QE. Anyone who saw him parade of the opinion he was a bit big? Rolling out first up under pressure against a third up genuine stayer no biggie in my book.

Surely Harp star for the Sheema, won't be having a bet as I just don't know enough but it is fantastic watching.

Only if you were looking to nit pick, basically he looked good in the yard. Im sure he will have that extra 5% fitness next time but I wouldnt be using it for an excuse for today

 

[Main Man]

TTW looked to be a little bit big to my eye but that is the first time I have seen him up close, maybe that is just the way he is? Other than that paraded a treat, no sweating or anything like that and was very relaxed in the yard, this along with a little bit of an early move in the betting were the reasons I backed him.

I will wait until I can do the figures on the race before witting him off but based on the hype around him it's hard not to think he was a disappointing.

Taking all things into account, first up run in Australian 2400M and the like, if you are a World class animal which is is supposed to be you beat Beaten Up & Whoshotthebarman by a reasonable margin, I think Protectionist in his Spring form is a very good horse but he is no where near that level this time in.

He obviously underperformed yesterday but I can't help but think some so called experts have had their hand on it getting carried away with him, so highly rated on 1 run, yes it was against elite performers but it was a bunched finished and just because they are elite horses it doesn't necessarily mean that particular race was an elite "performance", the others have proved themselves time and again as superstars, he finished close to them once.

He was being talked up based on potential not what he has done to date, don't get me wrong he is obviously a very good horse but not the best we have ever seen on our shores as some dribblers in the media were suggesting.

I'm annoyed with myself for taking it hook, line and sinker, one of my rules is not backing Internationals first start in Australia (particularly in big races at short odds) but given the hype and the previous performance of the so called 2nd rate Japanese I couldn't help myself.

In regards to the Queen Elizabeth, if its a race that will lack pace then Contributer is an odds on shot, if it is a truly run 2000M he is still the one I want to be on at this stage but it brings him back to the pack a touch, much like First Seal yesterday.

 

[Main Man]

Done the figures on the race, a long way off World class based on my ratings.

They walked the first 1600M of the race, speed really went into it at the 800M with To the Worlds 200M ratings dropping off from there, the last 200M was a significant drop off which may have been fitness but honestly there is nothing that absolutely stands out about the performance that says back me next time at 2000M against quality opposition.

He will need to improve significantly to beat Contributer and even a horse like Criterion will beat him based on that run yesterday.

Very disappointing for mine, maybe these Japanese middle distance stayers need races with a strong tempo to show their best? They won't be getting that in the Sydney WFA races, for the most part walk sprint up affairs.

I can't buy that though given Admire Rakti overcame a super slow tempo in the Caulfield Cup to win?

I personally can't back him in the Queen Elizabeth, if he improves and beats them then so be it but at this stage he can do it without me.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

TTW looked to be a little bit big to my eye but that is the first time I have seen him up close, maybe that is just the way he is? Other than that paraded a treat, no sweating or anything like that and was very relaxed in the yard, this along with a little bit of an early move in the betting were the reasons I backed him.

I will wait until I can do the figures on the race before witting him off but based on the hype around him it's hard not to think he was a disappointing.

Taking all things into account, first up run in Australian 2400M and the like, if you are a World class animal which is is supposed to be you beat Beaten Up & Whoshotthebarman by a reasonable margin, I think Protectionist in his Spring form is a very good horse but he is no where near that level this time in.

He obviously underperformed yesterday but I can't help but think some so called experts have had their hand on it getting carried away with him, so highly rated on 1 run, yes it was against elite performers but it was a bunched finished and just because they are elite horses it doesn't necessarily mean that particular race was an elite "performance", the others have proved themselves time and again as superstars, he finished close to them once.

He was being talked up based on potential not what he has done to date, don't get me wrong he is obviously a very good horse but not the best we have ever seen on our shores as some dribblers in the media were suggesting.

I'm annoyed with myself for taking it hook, line and sinker, one of my rules is not backing Internationals first start in Australia (particularly in big races at short odds) but given the hype and the previous performance of the so called 2nd rate Japanese I couldn't help myself.

In regards to the Queen Elizabeth, if its a race that will lack pace then Contributer is an odds on shot, if it is a truly run 2000M he is still the one I want to be on at this stage but it brings him back to the pack a touch, much like First Seal yesterday.

….

 

[rideclutch]

He was being talked up based on potential not what he has done to date, don't get me wrong he is obviously a very good horse but not the best we have ever seen on our shores as some dribblers in the media were suggesting.

I would've been happy to back him on his 3YO form and take the unspruiked price, the Arima Kinen was just icing. I couldn't tip anyone into him now, but for those of us already set I'm going glass half full about it...

What did you make of Criterions' last run? It was obviously very good; gap to 3rd, but I thought he half turned it up.

 

[FallingLiefs]

1U Straight girl. Japan.
2U Tick Tick Bloom. Pinjarra.

 

[FallingLiefs]

1U Straight girl. Japan.
2U Tick Tick Bloom. Pinjarra.

Great run Aerovelocity. Thought Straight girl would turn the tables on its home soil but showed nothing. looked quite on pace dominated which helped him but the track is deplorable and Aerovelocity is just tough.

Interesting though on TTW, the trio the trainer brought over all blew up last 200 and in World Aces case never really got going. Whereas the lower ranked Real Impact with different trainer who was quite out of form prior to his last start before coming here was forward enough to win supremely well first up. Just an observation.... may be acclimatisation, may be fitness, may be talent(not IMO). Will be very interested to gauge World Aces improvement this week as he's the first we'll get to see. Also TTW I though looked quite a gross horse in that track work video, some like that really take improved fitness from a race in their wind and insides even when fit on outside.

 

[HeathySure]

Great run Aerovelocity. Thought Straight girl would turn the tables on its home soil but showed nothing. looked quite on pace dominated which helped him but the track is deplorable and Aerovelocity is just tough.

Interesting though on TTW, the trio the trainer brought over all blew up last 200 and in World Aces case never really got going. Whereas the lower ranked Real Impact with different trainer who was quite out of form prior to his last start before coming here was forward enough to win supremely well first up. Just an observation.... may be acclimatisation, may be fitness, may be talent(not IMO). Will be very interested to gauge World Aces improvement this week as he's the first we'll get to see. Also TTW I though looked quite a gross horse in that track work video, some like that really take improved fitness from a race in their wind and insides even when fit on outside.

i think you guys write off horses lile TTW too quickly. Fitness is the most important thing form analysis in my opinion and To The World raced like it needed the run. it did loom up and then Hartnell put a length on it or TTW ran out of condition. I don't like that To The World is coming back to 2000 metres quickly though so will the QE2 will probably be a watch race. Unless it gets to ridiculous odds. And i do think Contributer is an extraordinary horse. Does anyone know if it and Hartnell was always with the Godolphins or did they purchase them after they raced?

 

[ABitWoofy]

Can anyone see Kermadec or Suavito getting a run in the Doncaster?

 

[RobbyRoy]

I'm in the group that thinks it wasn't all that bad a first up run for TTW, but they have to having a laugh putting him at $4.50 for the QE.

 

[Aussie Assault]

I'm in the group that thinks it wasn't all that bad a first up run for TTW, but they have to having a laugh putting him at $4.50 for the QE.

Yep, I'm in the same boat. Will not be writing him off in 2 weeks.

 

[Main Man]

I would've been happy to back him on his 3YO form and take the unspruiked price, the Arima Kinen was just icing. I couldn't tip anyone into him now, but for those of us already set I'm going glass half full about it...

What did you make of Criterions' last run? It was obviously very good; gap to 3rd, but I thought he half turned it up.

Criterions 2 runs this time in have been very good, his runs in the Spring were also good and wouldn't surprise to see him win the Queen Elizabeth but as you say the fact that he has not won for some time is a concern, hard to back him with great confidence.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Ive taken the $81 on Leebaz in the Doncaster. Think the Japanese horse is the one to beat but i can't say no at that price.

Money around on Saturday for him leads me to believe he's going alright, even if the run looked very plain, was coming again on the line. Quick back up Saturday (assuming he's alright, all in markets and me aren't good friends) and he will go around a whole heap less than that if he runs.

Drops to 50.5kgs. Giddy up.

 

[Main Man]

Ive taken the $81 on Leebaz in the Doncaster. Think the Japanese horse is the one to beat but i can't say no at that price.

Money around on Saturday for him leads me to believe he's going alright, even if the run looked very plain, was coming again on the line. Quick back up Saturday (assuming he's alright, all in markets and me aren't good friends) and he will go around a whole heap less than that if he runs.

Drops to 50.5kgs. Giddy up.

I backed him Saturday and thought he was putrid to be honest, the run looked plain and rated poorly, got a very moderate tempo and was a beaten horse on the turn.

Heard a whisper last week that he has had some niggles this time in, I was conscious of that on Saturday but was happy to back him when the money came, on his best form he would have won that race comfortably but he is below his best based on 2 this time in, first up I thought he was okay and set a platform for him to elevate to his peak level on Saturday but he went backwards.

The Ryder is the right form for this race in my opinion, if Real Impact improves at all he will be winning, probably only needs to run to the level he did first up to win.

Rain forecast this week but hoping it's not a bog like last year.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I backed him Saturday and thought he was putrid to be honest, the run looked plain and rated poorly, got a very moderate tempo and was a beaten horse on the turn.

Heard a whisper last week that he has had some niggles this time in, I was conscious of that on Saturday but was happy to back him when the money came, on his best form he would have won that race comfortably but he is below his best based on 2 this time in, first up I thought he was okay and set a platform for him to elevate to his peak level on Saturday but he went backwards.

The Ryder is the right form for this race in my opinion, if Real Impact improves at all he will be winning, probably only needs to run to the level he did first up to win.

Rain forecast this week but hoping it's not a bog like last year.

Yea i agree he was very plain on Saturday but I'm taking the positive which was his last 100m when he looked deadset ready to drop out, Im not going stupid or anything just spec betting at odds, can do a lot worse backing him at $81 carry 50.5kg, some rain may benefit him also.

Real Impact the horse to beat with me as well as i mentioned.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Will be interested to see if there is any interest in World Ace. You're now getting pretty much the reverse odds of what he and Real Impact ran in The Ryder.

That run was too bad to believe, as MM mentioned, paraded like crap and ran accordingly, wonder if he has come on since.

 

[Main Man]

James McDonald doesn't get a hell of a lot wrong but he had his pants pulled down by Shinn on First Seal, having watched the race it appeared that they went faster than expected killing off her sprint but having now looked at the shape of the race it was in fact the complete opposite.

They weren't going fast at all, was only moderately run early with strong section late, First Seal as usual running strong late ratings but was a bridge too far for her with Fenway pinching a break early in the straight.

Personally I think First Seal was a little disappointing but McDonald was far too conservative on her, I had her 3rd in the run getting the lovely trail & to be honest there is no reason why he couldn't get there, I think he got caught up thinking she was too good for them and as a result was happy to race midfield.

 

[bombers21]

James McDonald doesn't get a hell of a lot wrong but he had his pants pulled down by Shinn on First Seal, having watched the race it appeared that they went faster than expected killing off her sprint but having now looked at the shape of the race it was in fact the complete opposite.

They weren't going fast at all, was only moderately run early with strong section late, First Seal as usual running strong late ratings but was a bridge too far for her with Fenway pinching a break early in the straight.

Personally I think First Seal was a little disappointing but McDonald was far too conservative on her, I had her 3rd in the run getting the lovely trail & to be honest there is no reason why he couldn't get there, I think he got caught up thinking she was too good for them and as a result was happy to race midfield.

My exact thoughts on Jmac. Was far too pretty on FS

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Not for me, and i had plenty on FS.

She was very flat at the top of the straight which isn't usually her. She let down well at the top of the straight even in the Coolmore despite being 3 and 4 wide.

Im the first to bag a s**t ride with plenty of cash on (see Nash on Kermadec) but she had every chance Saturday.

 

[Main Man]

Not for me, and i had plenty on FS.

She was very flat at the top of the straight which isn't usually her. She let down well at the top of the straight even in the QOTT despite being 3 and 4 wide.

Im the first to bag a s**t ride with plenty of cash on (see Nash on Kermadec) but she had every chance Saturday.

I do think First Seal was a little disappointing but she would have won with a positive ride, no doubt about it. She may have looked a little flat at the top of the straight but that was more a case of the others getting it soft in front and being able to sprint off the bend that made it appear that way.

The 2000M obviously brought her back to the pack a bit but if McDonald had been positive and got to where most had her in the run then she would have out sprinted the others, as I said there was no reason he couldn't get there as they weren't going fast and she jumped well, a lazy almost arrogant ride in my opinion.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

And…Leebaz is out of the Doncaster.

You couldn't make this s**t up, i bet, 30 minutes later, withdrawn. Me and all in markets

Oh well $25 down the drain, no probs Ladbrokes, no probs, happy to help you battlers out.

 

[rideclutch]

The 2000M obviously brought her back to the pack a bit but if McDonald had been positive and got to where most had her in the run then she would have out sprinted the others, as I said there was no reason he couldn't get there as they weren't going fast and she jumped well, a lazy almost arrogant ride in my opinion.

Blake Shinn won it, Jmac didn't lose it.

 

[Jugada]

And…Leebaz is out of the Doncaster.

You couldn't make this s**t up, i bet, 30 minutes later, withdrawn. Me and all in markets

Oh well $25 down the drain, no probs Ladbrokes, no probs, happy to help you battlers out.

 

[Main Man]

Blake Shinn won it, Jmac didn't lose it.

Agreed, not suggesting it was a shocking ride but it wasn't one of his best either, it was a lazy ride in my opinion, he thought she was that much better than them that she could win from wherever she got to in the run, at the time I thought that he put her where she was because there was more pace than expected but that was not the case.

He had Adrifts back after the jump, he was there to take up a spot in 3rd or 4th but chose to drift back to 7th or 8th in the run, he had the opportunity to get the run of the race and chose not to take it, he had just ridden Catkins a treat and he should have done the same on First Seal.