MARCH Daily Punt....

[Main Man]

G ‏@LongBallToNoOne 2m2 minutes ago Chuo-ku, Tokyo

2014 Arima Kinen (Gentildonna) star studded but slow times. Admire Deus 4.9s quicker in a G2 on Saturday #ToTheWorld

This guy lives in and follows the Japanese racing very closely, he couldn't stop spruiking To the World last week, admittedly he did say he was a rising star and not a superstar yet but he was talking as though he was across the line in the BMW.

Then he tweets this tonight, couldn't have told people this last week (yes I know Admire Dues hadn't run yet but surely he knew that the Arima Kinen was a slow time)? Times do vary from day to day but not 30 length on the same rated surface, obviously early pace in the race impacts overall times but 30 lengths is a substantial difference regardless of early pace and I thought that most of the Japanese races were run at a strong tempo?

For mine this is the problem with doing ratings based purely on the horses that finished around them, whilst it is a factor when assessing or validating a performance it can be misleading at times and I think that is the case here, he is obviously a good horse but being totally blown out of proportion based on this run, as I said yesterday just because you finish close to some good horses doesn't necessarily mean it is an elite performance, the Newmarket 2 weeks ago an example, LOTS & Arreonautical finished close to the 2 highest rated sprinters in the World, does that make them world class horses, no it doesn't, Just A Way, Gentildonna and co are superstars but they have done it at the highest level time and time again, To the World has not.

The blanket finish in that race worried me a bit but unfortunately believed the hype.

I couldn't get any figures on his overseas performance so was going in blind a little bit but if I had of known this so called "highest rated race" of the year had produced such a slow overall time I wouldn't have been betting.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not suggesting it is 100% correct but is still the best guide.

I backed Gordon Lord Byron @ 29 on Betfair, $17-$21 in betting is not a big drift, 1% or something like that, bit different different from being $1.90-$2.50.

Contributer might have been a little bit easy but Noble Protector still ran well.

Thats two examples, how many examples of it going the other way, It's Somewhat, Real Impact & Tales of Grimm to name of few over the last month to 6 weeks.

It is still the best guide to performance of the unknowns.

So you've named three against my two.

Personally I think its irrelevant - if they are good enough they will win - their ability is the best guide - not the betting moves.

 

[ABitWoofy]

http://www.racing.com/news/2015-03-30/suavito-a-step-closer-to-doncaster-start

Would be keen if the weather outlook was more promising, unproven on a soft or heavy deck with all strong performances on a good 3 or better

 

[iluvparis]

Does anyone know if it and Hartnell was always with the Godolphins or did they purchase them after they raced?

He was owned by the Crown Prince in the UK (i.e. Godolphin guy's son) so I'm not sure how they are running it in Oz but it may just be they run everything under the Godolphin banner down there?

Scary to think that he was only the 5th or 6th best staying 3yo of his generation in the UK (let alone older generations) and has just bolted up in our only WFA Group 1 at a staying trip. He was beaten 5 lengths by Romsdal who Australia stuffed by 4 lengths in the Epsom Derby.

 

[HeathySure]

He was owned by the Crown Prince in the UK (i.e. Godolphin guy's son) so I'm not sure how they are running it in Oz but it may just be they run everything under the Godolphin banner down there?

Scary to think that he was only the 5th or 6th best staying 3yo of his generation in the UK (let alone older generations) and has just bolted up in our only WFA Group 1 at a staying trip. He was beaten 5 lengths by Romsdal who Australia stuffed by 4 lengths in the Epsom Derby.

Thanks for that. Usually Godolphin takes the Aussie horses and races them in Dubai and Europe. this is the first time i can remember them bringing over horses to race in Australia. They are kicking our horses heads in. I wish he left his jockey over there though.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Thanks for that. Usually Godolphin takes the Aussie horses and races them in Dubai and Europe. this is the first time i can remember them bringing over horses to race in Australia. They are kicking our horses heads in. I wish he left his jockey over there though.

When O'Shea took over from Snowden they swapped from Darley to Godolphin, which then allows the flow back instead of just talent loss to the international circuit. So hopefully we can expect a few more competitive horses coming over lifting the bar for WFA classic/staying events.

 

[bombers21]

G ‏@LongBallToNoOne 2m2 minutes ago Chuo-ku, Tokyo

2014 Arima Kinen (Gentildonna) star studded but slow times. Admire Deus 4.9s quicker in a G2 on Saturday #ToTheWorld

This guy lives in and follows the Japanese racing very closely, he couldn't stop spruiking To the World last week, admittedly he did say he was a rising star and not a superstar yet but he was talking as though he was across the line in the BMW.

Then he tweets this tonight, couldn't have told people this last week (yes I know Admire Dues hadn't run yet but surely he knew that the Arima Kinen was a slow time)? Times do vary from day to day but not 30 length on the same rated surface, obviously early pace in the race impacts overall times but 30 lengths is a substantial difference regardless of early pace and I thought that most of the Japanese races were run at a strong tempo?

For mine this is the problem with doing ratings based purely on the horses that finished around them, whilst it is a factor when assessing or validating a performance it can be misleading at times and I think that is the case here, he is obviously a good horse but being totally blown out of proportion based on this run, as I said yesterday just because you finish close to some good horses doesn't necessarily mean it is an elite performance, the Newmarket 2 weeks ago an example, LOTS & Arreonautical finished close to the 2 highest rated sprinters in the World, does that make them world class horses, no it doesn't, Just A Way, Gentildonna and co are superstars but they have done it at the highest level time and time again, To the World has not.

The blanket finish in that race worried me a bit but unfortunately believed the hype.

I couldn't get any figures on his overseas performance so was going in blind a little bit but if I had of known this so called "highest rated race" of the year had produced such a slow overall time I wouldn't have been betting.

I think a lot of people are jumping off TTW too soon. He came here with a big wrap and with that sort of wrap he should have won but I still like to look at it as a 1st up run over 2400m and will gain improvement fitness wise from that.

 

[iluvparis]

First two preps he improved heaps from his first up runs (albeit generally with 6 week breaks)

Offsetting that last prep he ran a career worst at his second run back - but then was put out for 2 months so maybe something went amiss that day?

 

[Main Man]

So you've named three against my two.

Personally I think its irrelevant - if they are good enough they will win - their ability is the best guide - not the betting moves.

TTW on Saturday was 2.45 to 2.90 in the last 10 minutes of betting.

Market fluctuations is every bit as important as ability particularly with horses that are unknowns on Australian soil, it's all very well having the ability but if they are not their to run to their peak then they are unlikely to be winning.

Market is not alway right but is more often than not

 

[Main Man]

I think a lot of people are jumping off TTW too soon. He came here with a big wrap and with that sort of wrap he should have won but I still like to look at it as a 1st up run over 2400m and will gain improvement fitness wise from that.

Not writing him completely off, just suggesting he has been overrated based on that one run.

A horse like Orfevre would have won that race by 10 lengths if he was anywhere near his best, I know TTW was not talked about as being on that level but he was talked about as world class.

That performance on Saturday was miles off World class, if he he comes out and wins the QE by 4 lengths I might change my mind but he needs to improve significantly to do that.

 

[iluvparis]

Market is not alway right but is more often than not

Disagree - still think you are completely cherry picking but each to their own.

Harntell runs below par and TTW wins easily. It's not like he bombed.

What about The Great Gatsby in Dubai on the weekend - $4.00 on race morning, starts $2.50 - smashed by the early morning fave.

 

[FallingLiefs]

My disappointment with TTW wasn't form based, he's better than that and I'm certain of that fact. TTW's 3yo form is still superior to anything we have in AUS. The Arima Kinen was the difference between taking 3.5 and 2.2. You only have to look at Isla Bonita, One and Only and Harp Star. We'll see his best in the QE but I was really hoping for a genuine superstar that would wipe the floor with our horses. I still think he's the best and I hope he has turned up in aus at least up to the standard of those 3yo runs.

 

[Main Man]

Disagree - still think you are completely cherry picking but each to their own.

Harntell runs below par and TTW wins easily. It's not like he bombed.

What about The Great Gatsby in Dubai on the weekend - $4.00 on race morning, starts $2.50 - smashed by the early morning fave.

Fair enough, I still think it is a good guide, not suggesting that every horse that moves in the market are the ones I wan't to be on but if I have a horse of interest but have some unknowns about like TTW on Saturday I use the market moves as a good guide.

Not every horse that firms in the market wins but the ones that drift and drift alarmingly generally do not win, TTW was 2.6 into 2.45 with about 15 mins to go on Saturday, he had paraded well and I thought the move was on for him, from that point on they couldn't stop winding him out, he got out to 3s on Betfair, at that point I thought my money was more than likely done.

He is either not as good as some suggest (thats my view at present) or he severely underperformed, either way the big players didn't want to be on and hence drifted late.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes and as I pointed out Contributer was a big drifter on his debut - his rival (who had inferior European form) was hammered into favouritism. However, he won easily.

I just think looking at price movements is seeing monsters under the bed/jumping at shadows. If there is that much inside info going around I'd rather just not play.

 

[Main Man]

And…Leebaz is out of the Doncaster.

You couldn't make this s**t up, i bet, 30 minutes later, withdrawn. Me and all in markets

Oh well $25 down the drain, no probs Ladbrokes, no probs, happy to help you battlers out.

Leebaz has apparently or will accept for the race as will Ninth Leigon which leave Sweynese and Kermadec without a run, Kermadec was a genuine threat to the Japanese horse for mine but if he is not there the race looks a little easier.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Leebaz has apparently or will accept for the race as will Ninth Leigon which leave Sweynese and Kermadec without a run, Kermadec was a genuine threat to the Japanese horse for mine but if he is not there the race looks a little easier.

Dont know why he was taken down completely from everyones (i mean everyone, not one bookie had him in the market) all in markets yesterday then?

Maybe my $25 sent a shiver through the bookies and they thought something was up?

Anyway, he will be scratched between now and race time, my all in market love affair will remain, you just wait and see.

Baring that he is obviously a complete moral and I'm on at $81!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

God bless the people who fell into the $1.28 10 length maiden winner at Tamworth R6……

$6.90 for 2nd fav who had been racing in much better races. Thnx guysth xox

Admittedly, the kid who rode the fav will probably never get another ride again.

 

[iluvparis]

Any concern that Real Impact is 1 win from 14 attempts at the mile?

All his best runs in the last 2 years have been 1400-1500m. I reckon if the race is run at a decent clip he could be gasping for air in the last 100m.

 

[Main Man]

Any concern that Real Impact is 1 win from 14 attempts at the mile?

All his best runs in the last 2 years have been 1400-1500m. I reckon if the race is run at a decent clip he could be gasping for air in the last 100m.

The Ryder was run at a very fast pace, he did all the work and still ran the 3rd fastest last 200M in the race, I'm not going to look too far back into his form and what he has done in Japan, too hard to know the circumstances of each run and those that he was up against, based on his one Australian run I have no issue with him running 1600M.

I do however have an issue with him on a S5 or worse track, how the track ends up is going to play a big part in who wins this race I would think, at the moment I'm a little confused.

Provided its not super wet it wouldn't surprise me if you're favorite Happy Trails ran a very big race.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes given he won an Emirates with 58 giving weight to Fawkner you'd think he is actually pretty well in here with 56.5.

Against that he has been rolled by Mourinho twice this Autumn so perhaps this is a prep run for a Winter Championship campaign

 

[Main Man]

I have been guilty of underrating Mourinho in the past but he is actually a reasonable horse, much better than some would think.

As for Happy Trails, he generally takes 3-4 runs to get to his peak, comes back from a genuinely run 2000M which seems to be a reasonable pattern for the Randwick 1600, he draws well and is reasonably well weighted with 56.5kg, he has been racing against the best at WFA for a long time now and gets back to handicap, a bit to like.

 

[iluvparis]

MOURINHO was an average Country Cup horse who at the age of 7 has stepped up to be one of our better WFA performers. Either the trainer has a good chemist or our WFA stocks are at an appallingly low level.

 

[iluvparis]

On another point - WTF is going on with the NSW handicapping system? You are supposed to base order of entry on weight carried v WFA not absolute weight you complete morons.

Any system where Kermadec and Sweynese don't get into the field EASILY is a complete joke. Kermadec is a Group 1 winner FFS!

 

[Main Man]

When did Kermadec win a Group 1? He is a Group 3 winner.

 

[iluvparis]

When did Kermadec win a Group 1? He is a Group 3 winner.

Haha fair point - confused the Coolmore with the Carbine.

Still - the original premise still stands - it should always be weight relative to WFA that is the determining factor.