I too have gone through the fixture and calculated wins & margins for each game. For my predictions, I have assumed that Hird remains coach and that Essendon suffer no penalties throughout the season
1. Port Adelaide (17-5): Will improve massively. Have a better percentage than Sydney & Hawthorn, partly because they have four very young sides in the last six weeks.
2. Sydney (17-5): I was surprised to have them higher than the Hawks, but I had them undefeated after their bye.
3. Hawthorn (17-5): Still a quality side, I've got them dropping both their games against Port, otherwise they'd be higher
4. Fremantle (16-6): They're still a strong team. I've predicted them to go undefeated at Subi
5. Geelong (15-7): Will still be a force for most of the season. Probably lucky to get 15 wins.
6. North Melbourne (12-10): I'm still unsure about North. They'll drop games they should coast through, win ones they shouldn't
7. Gold Coast Suns (12-10): Young team, they'll start off well, and tire as the season goes on.
8. Richmond (11-11): They'll stagnate. I'm predicting a late resurgence (again) after being 4-8 after twelve matches
9. Adelaide (11-11): About the same as last year, but with a new coach this shouldn't be a concern. Tex Walker to win the Coleman in my opinion.
10. Brisbane Lions (11-11): Will improve quickly with Beams & Christensen added. Still have the potential to bleed goals and have their percentage slashed as a result.
11. Essendon (11-11): I don't see much opportunity for improvement. Their best players are already ageing. I have reservations about Hird's coaching ability, so I've got them sliding
12. Collingwood (9-13): Beams has left, Swan another year older etc. They're beginning a development phase. They'll unearth a few more good kids.
13. WC Eagles (9-13): I don't rate their kids, but 13th still seems a bit harsh on them.
14. GWS (9-13): Will start well and trail off throughout the year. They claim their first wins over North Melbourne and Essendon
15. Carlton (6-16): In a rebuilding phase, will go backwards with a couple of blowout losses
16. Melbourne (6-16): Still young. Will occasionally give a top 8 side a scare
17. Western Bulldogs (5-17): Losing Griffen will hurt a lot, and with a new coach they'll struggle. Without doing it game-by-game, I'd have placed them above Melbourne though.
18. St. Kilda (4-18): Developing, get a couple of wins, but blowout losses are still an issue
Other predictions/quirks:
- Richmond defeat NM to squeeze into the eight on the last Saturday of round 23, replacing the Crows who lose to Geelong.
- Malthouse gets sacked following a heavy loss to Gold Coast in round 13 which sees them drop to 18th
- Port Adelaide and Fremantle play at Adelaide Oval for two consecutive weeks, over round 23 & the QF
Finals predictions
Week 1
Port Adelaide def. Fremantle
Sydney def. by Hawthorn
Geelong def. Richmond
North Melbourne def. Gold Coast Suns
Week 2
Fremantle def. Geelong
Sydney def. by North Melbourne
Week 3
Port Adelaide def. North Melbourne
Hawthorn def. Fremantle
Week 4
Port Adelaide def. Hawthorn
1. Port Adelaide (17-5): Will improve massively. Have a better percentage than Sydney & Hawthorn, partly because they have four very young sides in the last six weeks.
2. Sydney (17-5): I was surprised to have them higher than the Hawks, but I had them undefeated after their bye.
3. Hawthorn (17-5): Still a quality side, I've got them dropping both their games against Port, otherwise they'd be higher
4. Fremantle (16-6): They're still a strong team. I've predicted them to go undefeated at Subi
5. Geelong (15-7): Will still be a force for most of the season. Probably lucky to get 15 wins.
6. North Melbourne (12-10): I'm still unsure about North. They'll drop games they should coast through, win ones they shouldn't
7. Gold Coast Suns (12-10): Young team, they'll start off well, and tire as the season goes on.
8. Richmond (11-11): They'll stagnate. I'm predicting a late resurgence (again) after being 4-8 after twelve matches
9. Adelaide (11-11): About the same as last year, but with a new coach this shouldn't be a concern. Tex Walker to win the Coleman in my opinion.
10. Brisbane Lions (11-11): Will improve quickly with Beams & Christensen added. Still have the potential to bleed goals and have their percentage slashed as a result.
11. Essendon (11-11): I don't see much opportunity for improvement. Their best players are already ageing. I have reservations about Hird's coaching ability, so I've got them sliding
12. Collingwood (9-13): Beams has left, Swan another year older etc. They're beginning a development phase. They'll unearth a few more good kids.
13. WC Eagles (9-13): I don't rate their kids, but 13th still seems a bit harsh on them.
14. GWS (9-13): Will start well and trail off throughout the year. They claim their first wins over North Melbourne and Essendon
15. Carlton (6-16): In a rebuilding phase, will go backwards with a couple of blowout losses
16. Melbourne (6-16): Still young. Will occasionally give a top 8 side a scare
17. Western Bulldogs (5-17): Losing Griffen will hurt a lot, and with a new coach they'll struggle. Without doing it game-by-game, I'd have placed them above Melbourne though.
18. St. Kilda (4-18): Developing, get a couple of wins, but blowout losses are still an issue
Other predictions/quirks:
- Richmond defeat NM to squeeze into the eight on the last Saturday of round 23, replacing the Crows who lose to Geelong.
- Malthouse gets sacked following a heavy loss to Gold Coast in round 13 which sees them drop to 18th
- Port Adelaide and Fremantle play at Adelaide Oval for two consecutive weeks, over round 23 & the QF
Finals predictions
Week 1
Port Adelaide def. Fremantle
Sydney def. by Hawthorn
Geelong def. Richmond
North Melbourne def. Gold Coast Suns
Week 2
Fremantle def. Geelong
Sydney def. by North Melbourne
Week 3
Port Adelaide def. North Melbourne
Hawthorn def. Fremantle
Week 4
Port Adelaide def. Hawthorn
