Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions
- Thread starter Connar
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kaiserchief13
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- Jul 12, 2011
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Nah will win at least 2 games which would be at least good enough for 3rd or 4th
finish 2nd still brah
IMO it will come down to Sydney rolling Hawthorn at home in the final round for us to get in.
ShaunWCEFC
All Australian
There could well be a team, even maybe two at a stretch, on 13 that doesn't make it.
kaiserchief13
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That would be unlucky. Don't think it has ever occurred. has it? As unlucky as 16-6 getting 6th spot in 2016 and 15-7 7th spot
The bottom four teams have won just 15 games between them and the top four have lost 23. That probably means more mid-table wins. In turn that would push the average of the mid-table to better than 11-11 and correspondingly makes the edge of the eight a bit higher.
I'm not sure what that spread of top teams dropping points and bottom teams gaining them normally is. I would have most years the good teams lose as many as the strugglers win but perhaps not.
Last year the top four lost 25 (not counting draws) and the bottom four won 23.
21 and 16 in 2016. 22 and 18 in 2015. 21 and 21 in 2014 (9th,10th,11th all finished 11-11 that year).
An eight game differential in top teams dropping games and bottom teams winning seems quite high (on limited data in the 18 team era).
I can't see how Richmond don't win the Grand final again this year, i thought Collingwood would be their biggest challenger but with their injuries i dont see them beating richmond, West Coast would be also but they tend to not play too well on the G and again with the injuries they have with their forwards and even at full strength i can't see them winning. GWS and possibly Melbourne are the only other teams that may be able to match the tigers. I can't recall but did Hawthorn at their strength come off as impressive as Richmond are at the moment? It's theirs to lose imo
Mitch1Brown
Sporg Brennan
In my eyes I didn't rate them high enough and thought they'd bow out in a prelim in 2014 and was surprised when they won it. 2015 it was obvious to me that no matter what happened they were winning it. Even in 2013 I was certain they were winning the flag.
- Oct 27, 2016
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Pies just need to win 3 out of the next 4 to make top 4. Freo + Bris are freebies (at least I hope so), so that just leaves us to beat either Swans or Port which if you asked me about 6 weeks ago I would've had those two in the bag. We are a decent chance at beating the Swans, Port may be a little harder but will depend on how Port perform at the MCG.
Anyway, here's my prediction. Some may say wishful thinking but the ol' saying "on any given Sunday" applies here. GWS may be able to mount a massive upset. Would love to see this grand final though. GWS have been slogging it out in the past 2 Prelims but just haven't gone all the way yet, they deserve a chance to prove themselves. But they will get knocked off by the Weagles, too strong.
Was trying to find a way to fit Hawks into here but North and Dees just have too easy of a finish.
Anyway, here's my prediction. Some may say wishful thinking but the ol' saying "on any given Sunday" applies here. GWS may be able to mount a massive upset. Would love to see this grand final though. GWS have been slogging it out in the past 2 Prelims but just haven't gone all the way yet, they deserve a chance to prove themselves. But they will get knocked off by the Weagles, too strong.
Was trying to find a way to fit Hawks into here but North and Dees just have too easy of a finish.
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* knows but 9th and 10th to miss on percentage
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We should have Kennedy back and Darling is there, but will be stretch without Gaff and Natanui
Schods
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\1.| Richmond |18|4|0|137.2%
\2.| West Coast |16|6|0|121.0%
\3.| Collingwood |15|7|0|118.3%
\4.| GWS |14|7|1|118.5%
\5.| Melbourne |14|8|0|129.9%
\6.| Geelong |14|8|0|122.9%
\7.| Port Adelaide |14|8|0|113.2%
\8.| Hawthorn |13|9|0|118.8%
\9.|North Melbourne|13|9|0|109.7%
\10.|Sydney|13|9|0|107.3%
\11.|Adelaide|12|10|0|99.6%
\12.|Essendon|11|11|0|101.6%
\13.|Fremantle|8|14|0|79.1%
\14.|Western Bulldogs|7|15|0|74.5%
\15.|Brisbane Lions|5|17|0|90.6%
\16.|St Kilda|4|17|1|76.0%
\17.|Gold Coast|4|18|0|62.6%
\18.|Carlton|2|20|0|62.1%
QF2: WEST COAST v Collingwood
EF1: MELBOURNE v Hawthorn
EF2: Geelong v PORT ADELAIDE
SF1: GWS v Melbourne
SF2: COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide
PF1: RICHMOND v Collingwood
PF2: WEST COAST v GWS
GF: RICHMOND v West Coast
- Oct 9, 2003
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I said it elsewhere, but my tip is it will come down the very last game of the year of us v Saints, with us needing to win by something like 70 points to make it on %, and we only win by 40 or 50.
The good news is we are getting key players back at the right time: Waite last week, Higgins this week, possibly Hartung next week, with Jacobs also now back in training.
- Oct 9, 2003
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Last year the Bombers finished 7th with 12 wins and a paltry percentage of 106%. Very different story this year to finish 7th and 8th.
Forward Press
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West Coast vs Melbourne at Optus becomes a clash with huge ramifications for top 2 and top 4 prospects. It's a 50/50 without a doubt, they beat us at Subi last year so travelling to Perth holds no fear for them.
Creepen
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- Oct 1, 2017
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I’d take this
But as a demons supporter I’m still afraid of missing out on finals completely
yeah I actually rate us in this game - like our last 3 are super hard but for some reason I think with no NicNat, potentially Kennedy and now Gaff we should be a good chance. Darling always kills us though haha!
Right now looking at the top 8, reckon there will be at least one change. Think Geelong will be inside the top 8 by the end of round 23, harder to pick who will go out but if I had to choose I'd say Sydney.
- Mar 28, 2018
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So did we, but you're a better team this year. The Dees are ferocious at the ball, and whether your guys handle that will decide the outcome I think.
00Stinger
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TigerTime_89
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- Apr 3, 2018
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So I have come up with a realistic scenario where all 4 Finals in the first week are played in Melbourne and all are being hosted by MCG tenants. But, with the contact that Etihad Stadium, MCG and the AFL have signed, the MCG can only host a maximum 3 Finals in that week. So, which game is played at Ehihad. How do they decided it? Is it by predicted crowd size or is the lowest ranked final played at Etihad?
Have to be all at the g in this circumstance, 4 mcg tenant clubs none should give up the g.
Thursday night hawks v eagles
Friday night tigers v giants
Saturday night Melbourne v cats
Sunday pies v power
Following week
Friday night loser of tigers/giants v winner of dees/cats
Saturday night loser of hawks/eagles v winner of pies/port
For what it’s worth I don’t think the ladder will finish that way so won’t be an issue the AFL will have to deal with this season.
