Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[TDS7]

If the beggars are spooked by go home factor with curtain why aren’t they spooked with mckercher? Wouldn’t you choose the most suitable to your list needs and that’s curtain and duursma and if you’re spooked they’re taking duursma and Watson no?

Well Colby is from Launceston, so I'm not sure the pull home is quite as strong.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Well Colby is from Launceston, so I'm not sure the pull home is quite as strong.

Tassie team in 2026 or something might think otherwise.

If you don’t have confidence in keeping talent at your club then fold.

 

[projectdingley]

Sam Butler and Conor MacDonald both ended up averaging 4.8 tackles a game in the NAB league their top-age seasons. Neither have been tackling machines in the AFL when playing as forwards, and it has been a point of contention with both AFL and VFL coaching staff. It just isn't as easy as "go watch Kozzi picket and do that". Why don't we simply watch some Plugger footage and then kick all our set shots instead of missing 40% of them?

Watson can close the gap as fast as anyone, but when playing as a forward he doesn't stick the tackles you'd expect from a pressure forward. That is because he isn't a pressure forward. He generates scores, off his own boot or by setting up his teammates, and he breaks open games from contests in the forwardline. He doesn't make sure the ball stays in the forwardline, thats just not his role.

This is exactly why I wouldn’t read much into tackle statistics. Doesn't show the whole picture. You can have pressure merchants in u18s that turn into cats at AFL level, as well as cats at u18 that go on to become pressure machines at afl level.

 

[projectdingley]

Ginnivan proves my point about small forwards.
We just got one who kicked 40 goals in a season at age 19 for the price of steak knives.
Why would we use pick 4 on Watson?
Is he really going to be better than Rachele, Rankine, Pickett etc?
Doubt it.

Here's a table of the top non-KP forwards for 2023 and the picks used the last time they were drafted.
Sorted by draft type, then descending order or picks.

View attachment 1834997

2023 goals by non-KP forwards <- click

Do not use a top 5 pick on a small forward!

discl: may contain errors, compiled by chatgpt.

There’s reasoning why Ginnivan was traded for steak knives. You aren’t getting a premium small forward like Charlie Cameron for steak knives.

Cyril Rioli wasn’t a top 10 pick either. Given hindsight, he’s the first drafted in just about any draft.

 

[The Chad and I]

There’s reasoning why Ginnivan was traded for steak knives. You aren’t getting a premium small forward like Charlie Cameron for steak knives.

Cyril Rioli wasn’t a top 10 pick either. Given hindsight, he’s the first drafted in just about any draft.

I clearly showed that most elite small forwards are drafted outside the top 10… and even further down the draft order.

 

[projectdingley]

I clearly showed that most elite small forwards are drafted outside the top 10… and even further down the draft order.

Small forwards are no different to any elite player taken outside of the top 10, if you’re given hindsight, you’re taking them in the top 10.

 

[H00t]

Easily improved at the level. I’ve seen vision of him running and bringing down opponents double his size.

He is 1kg heavier than Kozzie Pickett in his draft year. Kozzie averaged 2.7 tackles in the SANFL U18’s. Watson averaged 3.7 tackles a game this season for the Rangers.

Kozzie is now a pressure, tackling, and goal kicking machine at AFL level. Watson is a better talent than Kozzie was at u18 level that’s for sure. Just tells you how good he could become.

Watson’s average tackles a game is 2.1 a game. Had a total of 3 tackles in his last 5 games.

His tackle game dropped right off. Not saying he couldn’t be a good player. Would have liked to have seen him play VFL level this year though.

 

[H00t]

This is exactly why I wouldn’t read much into tackle statistics. Doesn't show the whole picture. You can have pressure merchants in u18s that turn into cats at AFL level, as well as cats at u18 that go on to become pressure machines at afl level.

Problem for Watson is players will get a lot bigger than him than the u/18s he’s been trying to compete against.

No one is saying he isn’t a talent. Just that he has flaws to his game. Like all players do.

 

[The Chad and I]

Small forwards are no different to any elite player taken outside of the top 10, if you’re given hindsight, you’re taking them in the top 10.

You are not making sense — and with that, I bow out.
Thx.

 

[projectdingley]

You are not making sense — and with that, I bow out.
Thx.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Watson is not a tackling machine, and he will not be a high tackle forward at senior level. Based on what has been plain to see that's an unfair expectation.

Right now he's been playing against players that will likely get exponentially bigger than Watson will once they hit the AFL system. It's going to be harder to do it against bigger AFL seasoned bodied.

But that's OK as it's not his game. He is elite with ball in hand and around goals though, and will command the best small defenders from every side. It will help Ginnivan and the other small forwards too.

If we can't draft Duursma I hope we draft Watson, and I won't be upset when North take that option out of our hands as a forward line with Breust, Watson, Wingard and Ginnivan running around will be damn exciting to watch.

 

[tommyk72]

If the beggars are spooked by go home factor with curtain why aren’t they spooked with mckercher? Wouldn’t you choose the most suitable to your list needs and that’s curtain and duursma and if you’re spooked they’re taking duursma and Watson no?

They know that they'll be moving to Tassie by then.

 

[The Chad and I]

I am very interested in who we take after McCabe.

Mark McKenzie does his best work After pick 30.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I am very interested in who we take after McCabe.

Mark McKenzie does his best work After pick 30.

Dear and that’s it. We won’t have the list spots.

 

[The Chad and I]

Dear and that’s it. We won’t have the list spots.

I thought he was favoured for the Rookie draft.

 

[I got the outside word]

I thought he was favoured for the Rookie draft.

Apparently has some interest due to late form.

I think we also need spots open for all our picks?

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Dear and that’s it. We won’t have the list spots.

We will need to take 6 list spots into the draft to use all our picks for points matching

 

[rei154]

Give me Duursma any day of the week.
I think he's 50 50 to be there at our pick with North taking two of Duursma, McKercher and Curtin.
I think him having a year with Gunston to learn from would be truly excellent, and Ginni coming in I think covers for Watson.

 

[chopflop]

Dear and that’s it. We won’t have the list spots.

We could move back in before or after McCabe. If we came back in after McCabe we would probably be splitting an F1 for two late first, one 2023 and one 2024

 

[projectdingley]

Watson is not a tackling machine, and he will not be a high tackle forward at senior level. Based on what has been plain to see that's an unfair expectation.

Right now he's been playing against players that will likely get exponentially bigger than Watson will once they hit the AFL system. It's going to be harder to do it against bigger AFL seasoned bodied.

But that's OK as it's not his game. He is elite with ball in hand and around goals though, and will command the best small defenders from every side. It will help Ginnivan and the other small forwards too.

If we can't draft Duursma I hope we draft Watson, and I won't be upset when North take that option out of our hands as a forward line with Breust, Watson, Wingard and Ginnivan running around will be damn exciting to watch.

Judd2Sewell, you my friend have had an epiphany. Great to see you’ve changed your stance on Watson.

Agree he won’t be a tackling machine, but he can certainly tackle. I’ve seen it with my own eyes and have no doubts he’ll be able to bring bigger bodies down.

A forward line with Ginnivan, Watson, DGB could make us the most hated forward line in the league. That’s the unsociable hawks we know and love.

Yes agree with your point regarding Duursma. If North takes him, it means no loss to us. I have maintained all along, and will continue to do so, that Watson will be the better player at AFL level. I see Duursma kicking a maximum of 25 goals next season if he plays 23 games. Realistically I have him kicking between 10-20. Watson I see kicking anywhere between 35-45.

Duursma just hasn’t got the elite attributes in my opinion. You can spin it all you want, but his elite ‘overhead marking ability’ would get absolutely towed up by a defender like Conor Idun or similar. He failed to have an influence in the VFL this season and struggled in the AFL academy games against bigger bodies.

Clips attached for viewing. There is just no way you can watch this video, analyse his statistics against VFL/Reserve sides and think this kid is will be elite at the HIGHEST (AFL) level.

He’s been overhyped by our fan base.

 

[smish]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there's just something about Duursma that makes me feel he won't live up to the hype at AFL level.

Let North have him.

 

[Millsie69]

Let’s say Duursma and Watson are off the board by pick 4, or we’re not quite as keen on Watson, now that we’ve picked up Ginnivan, would we entertain a swap with Melbourne for their picks 6 and 11?

Could end up with two quality youngsters instead of one?

 

[projectdingley]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there's just something about Duursma that makes me feel he won't live up to the hype at AFL level.

Let North have him.

Spot on. Xavier Duursma is great evidence to this. Those that can’t accept this metric as judgement are simply clutching at straws.

They are absolutely comparable and are built very similar. Kg and Cm wise.

Xavier had a good first two years but has done nothing since. Just traded for a packet of chips to the drug cheats. A very replaceable player.

Same DNA. One brother won’t miraculously be quicker/stronger than the other.

 

[HigginsHawk]

Let’s say Duursma and Watson are off the board by pick 4, or we’re not quite as keen on Watson, now that we’ve picked up Ginnivan, would we entertain a swap with Melbourne for their picks 6 and 11?

Could end up with two quality youngsters instead of one?

You don't think Dodoro would take great delight in bidding on McCabe at their pick 9? We would end up with pick 6, still get McCabe and only a few extra points to shw for it. I will be very surprised if neither Swans or Bombers bid on McCabe with their first rounders.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Just take Wiz and turn Butler into a mid.
CMac, Moore, Ginnivan, Wiz is a great mix.

Yep Butler has to train with the mids this preseason.