mattys123
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2013 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND SIX
COLLINGWOOD VS ST KILDA
ETIHAD STADIUM
FRIDAY 3RD MAY 7.50PM
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It may only be round six of the 2013 AFL Premiership season but already this Friday night's matchup between Collingwood and St Kilda at Etihad Stadium is a must win for both teams. Collingwood come into the game with a 3-2 win/loss record and will see this as one they simply must win if they are to be any chance of all of finishing in the top four. St Kilda come into the game with an even worse record, as they have only managed to notch up one win and that was over GWS. The loser of this game will begin to lose sight of their desired finishing position which makes this game one of the most vital games of the season so far.
Of course these two clubs have some wonderful history dating back to 1966 and one of the most famous Grand Final's of all time where the Saints recorded their only premiership victory by one point over the Magpies. 34 years later and the two sides went head to head again in the 2010 Grand Final and it didn't fail to deliver once again with a stunning draw being the result of the first of two grand finals that year. St Kilda looked like winning late in that game before some heroic efforts by Magpies captain Nick Maxwell and others like Sidebottom and Thomas got the Magpies a replay the following week that would ultimately produce their 15th AFL/VFL premiership.
Since that game though the Saints have dropped off the pace in a significant manner to the point where they are now being talked about as being in a rebuilding phase, something no supporter wants to hear.
PREVIOUS FORM
Last Thursday both clubs took part in their respective ANZAC Day matches with the Saints making history over in New Zealand by playing Sydney in the first game ever for premiership points outside of Australia and Collingwood playing in their annual blockbuster against Essendon in front of the fourth highest home and away crowd of all time.
In the second game played on ANZAC day the Saints took it right up to the reigning premiers and at one point they closed within 10 points late in the last quarter, before the Swans steadied, kicking the last goal to record a 16 point win. The Saints were lead manfully by two of their greatest ever players in Nick Riewoldt and Lenny Hayes who just do not know how to quit under any circumstances. Jack Steven and Leigh Montagna also had an influence on the game in tricky conditions but it was Sydney's midfield that won out on the day much in thanks to their ruck duo of Pyke and Mumford who gave the Swans first use with 20 more total hitouts. It was a commendable performance from the Saints but it left them with a 1-4 win/loss record and in danger of losing touch with the final eight already.
Earlier in the day, Collingwood took on Essendon in the traditional ANZAC day blockbuster at the MCG in front of more than 93,000 people and despite kicking the first two goals of the final quarter to close within two goals, the Magpies were well beaten as the Bombers ran away with a 46 point victory. The low point of the match for Collingwood though wasn't the result with reliable medium defender Alan Toovey going down with a season ending ACL injury in the dying minutes to turn a bad day into a shocking day for the Pies. The Magpies didn't have a lot of winners on the day but Pendlebury, Swan, Sidebottom, Reid, Lynch and Brown could hold their heads high despite the loss. The result left the Magpies sitting at a precarious 3-2 after 5 games and on the edge of themselves losing touch off their season target, the top four.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
The Pies have copped a caning in the press this week with criticism based on their inability to stop top teams from over running them late in games, and in some case that criticism is warranted, but in most cases the current long injury list is not mentioned at all. The situation on the injury front will is slower getting better at the Westpac Centre (Collingwood's training centre) with Darren Jolly, Alan Didak, Andrew Krakouer and Ben Johnson all fit and ready to be considered after missing most of the season so far respectively. Jolly's absence was felt at it's highest point last week as although Ben Hudson tried hard he couldn't compete with the double act of Hille and Bellchambers, although Quinten Lynch more than held his own once again as the second ruckman. What the Pies do lack though is scoring options up forward, as even last week they lead the inside 50's statistical category late into the game yet failed to convert once in their forward zone.
The Magpies are far too reliant on three scoring options, Cloke, Elliott and Sidebottom and when even one of those options is restricted the side suffers a great deal. At the selection table Nathan Buckley and his coaching staff reacted savagely to their bad loss last week with 5 changes, and as expected Darren Jolly and Andrew Krakouer are among those inclusions. The inclusion of Krakouer and debutantes Kennedy and Witts should help this as all have showed goal kicking ability in the VFL. In the VFL last week the Magpies reserves side had one of it's biggest wins in recent memory with a 116 point win over Bendigo and along with the names mentioned above there are surely a few others that will be considered after that dominant performance. Probably the most heartening sign out of that VFL game though was the return of the one and only Luke Ball after almost 13 months out with a knee injury. Ball looked like his old self winning the hard ball and leading the way before he was benched in the last quarter. Unfortunately Ball is still a few weeks away from making his senior return but the Magpies do have some options to replace those who have been under-performing at senior level of late.
This is a game everyone at Collingwood will be expecting to win but it's also a must win game so the pressure will be on the club to perform on Friday night.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS.
It's amazing to see how St Kilda has fallen since that epic Grand Final series against Collingwood, especially when you compare them to the Magpies current playing stocks. The loss of coach Ross Lyon in bizarre circumstances certainly didn't help the club but their list also seems to lack the depth required to be a top side any more. There is long term hope for Saints fans though with a few young players already showing talent and a few more who have yet to make their debut showing impressive signs in the VFL. That is the future for St Kilda, at the moment they need to build up through the draft rather than target older free agents and coach Scott Watters has made no secret of the fact that his team is in a rebuilding phase based primarily on youth. That's not to say that the Saints don't have any experienced talent though as they still have plenty of players left over from their Grand Final teams.
The Saints forward line is still a dangerous area of their team and of course it's led by the ever reliable Nick Riewoldt who showed last week that he is far from being near the end with another amazing performance that almost got his team a remarkable win. The problem for the Saint seems to be finding a second tall forward to help him though, with Beau Maister out injured and Justin Koschitzke really struggling they have tried several different options without much success. Rhys Stanley is one player who has shown promise to be that second tall options but he has also spent time in the ruck which means they probably need another option also. The Saints also have some young options in Tom Lee and Spencer White but most good judges say they are still a little bit raw for senior football yet. St Kilda does have a strength up forward though in it's small/medium sized forwards, an area that has worried the Magpie so far this season and will be even more troublesome with the absence of Toovey for the rest of the season. Depending on who is selected for the Saints they will have names like Milne, Saad, Dennis-Lane and their resting midfielders annoying the heck out of the Collingwood defense. Milne was suspended last week but in a big game like this you think he'd return, although he might run into his nemesis Ben Johnson who has a great record on him. St Kilda's forward line will worry the weakened Magpies defense but the problem for the Saints may be getting the ball down there enough and with accuracy.
During their time near the top the Saints midfield was as good as any going around especially in the contested possession area and that was of course led by the ever enduring Lenny Hayes, who despite a year off with an ACL injury has returned as good as ever as shown last week in New Zealand. Also helping out Hayes are other club stalwarts Dal Santo, Montagna and Jones who were also there in those grand finals a few years back. The Saints have struggled to give these players support since but have found a reliable option in Jack Steven who has now become deserving of being included in the same sentence as those experienced stars. In the ruck division St Kilda has a very good number one option in Ben McEvoy who after several years of development is finally becoming the player the club wanted him to become, although he does seem to be lacking in any real support as shown last week when he had 27 hitouts and the rest of the team had just 9. With Darren Jolly returning and Quinten Lynch serving as a more than capable assistant the Saints may struggle to overcome the Collingwood pairing in the ruck when McEvoy has to take a rest. The positive for the Saints this week is they won't have to deal with Luke Ball and Dayne Beams and as seen over the past few weeks other teams have exploited the Magpies in the midfield because of their absence. St Kilda's midfield is still strong and they will back themselves to get on top of the talented Pies midfield that at the moment is lacking in depth.
The St Kilda backline is under rated in it's performance really with only one side kicking a score of over 100 points against them so far this season, and that was the on fire Bombers a few weeks back at Etihad Stadium. St Kilda relies heavily on key talls Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher and they usually deliver for the team. This week though they will face Travis Cloke and surely St Kilda will have to consider bringing in another tall defender to help those two out against Cloke and also Quinten Lynch. St Kilda's strength out of their backline is their run though with the inclusion of Dylan Roberton this year and the form of Jarryn Geary giving them some quick and accurate ball movement out of defense. Obviously the Saints are missing Brendan Goddard in several areas and down back is one of those areas with his long kicking creating plenty of scoring opportunities for the Saints in the past. But the Saints had to move on and they may consider bringing in Gwilt this week to give them a little more run out of the backline also. Collingwood's forward line has been proficient in scoring against lesser opposition so far but has struggled to put a score on the board against the Hawks and Bombers and I'm sure the Saints will study those two games to see how to restrict the Pies forward line this week.
St Kilda will set themselves for this game, just like they did last week and the fact that this is a Collingwood home game at St Kilda's home ground (no idea why) will no doubt help them because the Saints do play their best football under the roof at Etihad. Injury wise St Kilda are in a better position than Collingwood and they will be confident of testing a Collingwood team that is struggling just a tad at the moment. The recent history between these two sides means there will be no love lost and the intensity of the game is sure to be on from the first minute and coach Scott Watters will ensure his team are fired up early on. Whether St Kilda can match the Pies intensity and output for four quarters is probably the big question here but St Kilda finished well against Sydney last week so they will take that confidence into this match up.
TEAMS.
TIP.This game has become a vital game for both teams if there are to meet their respective season goals and as such should have a finals like feel to it from the beginning. Add in the recent history between the two clubs and the hatred that the St Kilda fans seem to have for the Pies (who doesn't hate the Pies though I guess) and the atmosphere on Friday Night inside Etihad Stadium should be electric. Last week saw St Kilda probably out perform Collingwood and that alone will give them some confidence coming into this big match up. Collingwood on the other hand responded well after their most recent defeat with a strong win over the Tigers and you would expect them to respond in a similar manner here.
The return of Jolly and Krakouer adds another dimension to a Collingwood side that desperately needs to get it's game going with a very tough stretch of matches coming up. Dale Thomas has struggled a little so far this year he tries to gain match fitness after pre season setbacks but Thomas showed last week that he is close to getting back to his best and he has always played well against the Saints. I think if there's an area that Collingwood will dominate it will be their forward line and it may well be the difference in the game, much like it was against Richmond two weeks ago. Even with the injuries that the Pies have they will go into this game as firm favourites and you would think the bookies have this game about right and despite the Saints putting up another strong effort the Pies should come away with a rather easy win.
PIES BY 27 POINTS.
GO PIES.
Oh, and before I forget here's a new initiative from the heads of Bigfooty, feel free to try it out during the game;
