Amazing coincidences in football

[radiojake]

Is that a coincidence or more of an interesting stat?

 

[Baird]

Is that a coincidence or more of an interesting stat?

It's not really interesting at all actually

 

[Ari]

Sydney had a shocker of a week last week. Hawks had a shocker of a week this week.

And the coincidence? They were playing Essendon both times. *cue twilight zone music*

 

[Dan26]

Is that a coincidence or more of an interesting stat?

Well, I guess both.

Technically a coincidence is: "a striking occurrence of two or more events at one time apparently by mere chance"

This is 48 events, each one not particularly noteworthy or statistically significant on its own, but combined over 48 consecutive occurances, it is extremely unlikely.

 

[NorthernLights]

Sydney had a shocker of a week last week. Hawks had a shocker of a week this week.

And the coincidence? They were playing Essendon both times. *cue twilight zone music*

No coincidence. Teams often play down to competition against Essendon.

 

[Ari]

Well, I guess both.

Technically a coincidence is: "a striking occurrence of two or more events at one time apparently by mere chance"

This is 48 events, each one not particularly noteworthy or statistically significant on its own, but combined over 48 consecutive occurances, it is extremely unlikely.

You could also argue that 48 occurrences demonstrates it's no coincidence at all.

I've woken up every day since birth. Coincidence?

 

[Dan26]

You could also argue that 48 occurrences demonstrates it's no coincidence at all.

I've woken up every day since birth. Coincidence?

But your chances of waking up every day, not having died in your sleep are about 99.999999999%. The chances of this 99.999999999% chance happening for 10,000 consecutive days in a row is still about 99.9999%

The chances of a footy team NOT starting 0-3 is exactly 0.875 (7 in 8)

The chances of an 87.5% chance happening 48 consecutive times is only about 1 in 600.

That's 48 consecutive times where the 12.5% chance doesn't pop up. Not even once in any of those 48 times.

If something is a 12.5% chance of happening, and there are 48 consecutive chances of the 12.5% bobbing up, it is almost certain that the 12.5% will happen somewhere, sometime. But it hasn't. Not once in 48 years.

 

[PowerForGood]

But your chances of waking up every day, not having died in your sleep are about 99.999999999%. The chances of this 99.999999999% chance happening for 10,000 consecutive days in a row is still about 99.9999%

The chances of a footy team NOT starting 0-3 is exactly 0.875 (7 in 8)

The chances of an 87.5% chance happening 48 consecutive times is only about 1 in 600.

That's 48 consecutive times where the 12.5% chance doesn't pop up. Not even once in any of those 48 times.

If something is a 12.5% chance of happening, and there are 48 consecutive chances of the 12.5% bobbing up, it is almost certain that the 12.5% will happen somewhere, sometime. But it hasn't. Not once in 48 years.

Agree that it is something that is unlikely, and a nice trivia fact, better than anything I've ever noticed, but not a coincidence though.

 

[MightyHawks]

Hawthorn win back to back flags in 1988-1989, and start the next year by thrashing Geelong in Round 1 and losing to Essendon in Round 2
25 years later
Hawthorn win back to back flags in 2013-2014, and start the next year by thrashing Geelong in Round 1 and losing to Essendon in Round 2

 

[radiojake]

that's a coincidence

 

[Rotayjay]

Hawthorn win back to back flags in 1988-1989, and start the next year by thrashing Geelong in Round 1 and losing to Essendon in Round 2
25 years later
Hawthorn win back to back flags in 2013-2014, and start the next year by thrashing Geelong in Round 1 and losing to Essendon in Round 2

Does that mean the Pies will be premiers this year?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Does that mean the Pies will be premiers this year?

Or will Essendon lose the GF by 48 points?

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Hawthorn won the flag in 2013 and 2014. 13 + 14 is 27. Matt Spangher wears number 27. Matt Spangher is Jesus. Easter celebrates Jesus' resurrection. Matt Spangher unfurled the premiership flag on Easter Monday. Illuminati confirmed

 

[emuboy]

One from the WAFL; in 1997 Tony Micale coached the East Fremantle Sharks, which finished runner up to the South Fremantle Bulldogs in the Grand Final. The following year, Micale coached East Fremantle to the 1998 premiership with a win over the West Perth Falcons. Then in 1999, Micale moved to South Fremantle as coach, but the Bulldogs lost the Grand Final to West Perth. Then Micale moved to East Perth, coaching the Royals to three successive premierships in 2000, 2001 & 2002, with the sides beaten to achieve these flags East Fremantle, South Fremantle and West Perth!

 

[Ron The Bear]

The last time Essendon started 0-3 was 1967

That was the only time. The two longest sequences in the VFL/AFL, back to back. Remarkable.

 

[Rooboy 34]

Robbie Tarrant is #25. Ben Brown is #50. 25 x 2 = 50 and, coincidentally, Brown has already produced twice the output Tarrant ever has.

NM has 3 Ben's on our list - Ben Jacobs (5), Ben Cunnington (10) and Ben Brown (50). 5 x 10 = 50...

Not a coincidence but just an interesting play on numbers...

 

[Rooboy 34]

In our last 2 Premiership years, the Prelim Finals results have been:
- NM defeated Brisbane
- Our GF opponent (Sydney / Carlton) defeated Essendon by 1 point

 

[Rooboy 34]

In September 1997, Pat Rafter won the US Open, Robert Harvey won the Brownlow, Adelaide won the Premiership & Andrew MacLeod won the NS Medal.
In September 1998, Pat Rafter won the US Open, Robert Harvey won the Brownlow, Adelaide won the Premiership & Andrew MacLeod won the NS Medal.

 

[MightyHawks]

Or will Essendon lose the GF by 48 points?

you seem excited about losing a grand final... must have been awhile

 

[Back One Out]

2015 is the 48th consecutive season that Essendon has NOT started 0-3, meaning that Essendon has recorded at least two premiership points during the first three rounds of each of the last 48 seasons.

The last time Essendon started 0-3 was 1967

The chances of this happening (assuming all matches are 50-50) is approximately 1 in 600.

Essendon were winless in the first 3 rounds of 1969, 1971 and 1993

2 losses and 1 draw in each of those seasons

You've assumed all games are 50/50, but you've failed to take into account the mathematical chance of a draw

 

[Air_Chester]

2015 is the 48th consecutive season that Essendon has NOT started 0-3, meaning that Essendon has recorded at least two premiership points during the first three rounds of each of the last 48 seasons.

The last time Essendon started 0-3 was 1967

The chances of this happening (assuming all matches are 50-50) is approximately 1 in 600.

That was the only time. The two longest sequences in the VFL/AFL, back to back. Remarkable.

Essendon were winless in the first 3 rounds of 1969, 1971 and 1993

2 losses and 1 draw in each of those seasons

You've assumed all games are 50/50, but you've failed to take into account the mathematical chance of a draw

I like to view it as Essendon having only started 0-3 once in 116 seasons. That's absurdly consistent.

 

[melbournemartin]

Chris Scott and Brad Scott were born on the same day.

 

[emuboy]

The 1999 premierships in the four major leagues were won by teams that were dominant at the time; North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL), Casey/Springvale Scorpions (VFL), West Perth Falcons (WAFL) and Port Adelaide Magpies (SANFL).

However, these premierships seem to have been poisoned chalices, with the Kangaroos, Scorpions and Magpies not winning another premiership to date. Only the Falcons have enjoyed premiership success (2003 & 2013) since then, but even then West Perth experienced 10 years without winning a single finals game.

 

[Eshay187]

I prefer the term "magic" to coincidence.

 

[coldlunch]

But your chances of waking up every day, not having died in your sleep are about 99.999999999%. The chances of this 99.999999999% chance happening for 10,000 consecutive days in a row is still about 99.9999%

The chances of a footy team NOT starting 0-3 is exactly 0.875 (7 in 8)

The chances of an 87.5% chance happening 48 consecutive times is only about 1 in 600.

That's 48 consecutive times where the 12.5% chance doesn't pop up. Not even once in any of those 48 times.

If something is a 12.5% chance of happening, and there are 48 consecutive chances of the 12.5% bobbing up, it is almost certain that the 12.5% will happen somewhere, sometime. But it hasn't. Not once in 48 years.

that doesn't make it a coincidence, though.
if i buy a lotto ticket this week and my numbers come up, that's a highly unlikely result, about 1 in 50,000,000, but you wouldn't characterise it as a coincidence.

a coincidence would be something like a team going 48 years without starting 0-3 and then the streak ending in three consecutive 48-point losses.