How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[Juddism]

Yep and news that Briggs has been publicly circulating pictures of the PS he has supposedly made unwanted advances to and breaching the Privacy Act shows parliament really isn't full of big thinkers!

http://www.pedestrian.tv/news/arts-...male/1d2fbdc9-ead3-4bdb-b355-95a926c73838.htm

Dutton decided to get involved too..

just gets better!

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ced-after-texting-mishap-20160103-glyll6.html

Immigration minister Peter Dutton has been left red-faced after he referred to a journalist as a "mad f---ing witch" then accidentally sent the text message to the journalist herself.





Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ing-mishap-20160103-glyll6.html#ixzz3wDER8Amc
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

 

[pazza]

Turnbull needs to get a hold of Dutton and deal with him quickly. Can't afford to have attacks that are heading Dutton's way.

 

[Schache It Off]

Liberals to win 52-48 2PP if held late 2016. If early, 54-46.

Shorten and Labor are cooked.

 

[The Punter]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the polls as people get back from holidays, start to realize it is an election year and start to consider their vote more seriously.

 

[GOAUS!]

Libs timed the controversies well with them all appearing whilst the government (and many others) are on holiday.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Coalition outdo their TPP % from the 2013 election. Will be very interesting to see how well the Nick Xenephon Team does (could pick up a few seats in the House of Reps + a few senate spots). I expect the PUP vote to collapse too.

 

[The Punter]

Can a SA expert tell us where Xenophon is likely to win in the HoR? Certainly a chance to poll over 20% primary in some seats, but that may just change who comes second in some places. Also have no idea whether he'll take votes away from Libs or ALP.

 

[GOAUS!]

Can a SA expert tell us where Xenophon is likely to win in the HoR? Certainly a chance to poll over 20% primary in some seats, but that may just change who comes second in some places. Also have no idea whether he'll take votes away from Libs or ALP.

Sturt is the major one. By all reports Pyne was a bit agitated when he saw the polling for his electorate.

"“The two-party preferred results reveal that not only is Mr Pyne facing a massive swing away from him towards Labor (52-48 LIB ALP 2PP, compared with 60-40 LIB ALP 2PP at the last election) but that if Senator Nick Xenophon stands a candidate for the seat, that person would win with a 62-38 2PP,”"

http://indaily.com.au/news/2015/07/29/union-poll-shows-pyne-at-risk/

Roy Morgan had Nick Xenophon Team on 18% at the state level in South Australia taking 7.5% from the ALP, 3.5 % from the Coalition and 2.5% from the Greens. Xenophon will be a lot stronger in South Australia than elsewhere though.

This was before the switch to Turnbull which might have changed things a bit, I'd be keeping an eye on the seats of Sturt, Mayo (Jamie Briggs), Hindmarsh (Matt Williams) and the ALP seats of Adelaide (Kate Ellis) and Makin (Tony Zappia).

 

[The Punter]

I would think Xenophon would only win HoR seats in SA.

For Pyne to lose 62-38 to anyone, his primary would have to be below 38%. Pyne polled 54% primary vote in 2013, 48% in 2010, 47% in 2007, 52% in 2004, 51% in 2001, 48% in 1998, 54% in 1996, and 39% in 1993. So except for his initial election (GST election, no personal vote) his vote would have to seriously collapse to lose like that.

On the other hand, apply that 18% primary (and breakdown from other parties) to the 2013 Sturt result and that leaves Pyne on 50.5%, the ALP on around 22%, the Greens Party on around 7.5%, and Xenophon on 18% (with others totaling 2%).

On those numbers Pyne wouldn't want to get too much lower on primary votes than 48%. A lot would also depend on who the Greens Party directs their preferences to (ALP or XEN), and then if the ALP beats XEN, who XEN directs their preferences to (ALP or LP).

 

[Gough]

I would think Xenophon would only win HoR seats in SA.

For Pyne to lose 62-38 to anyone, his primary would have to be below 38%. Pyne polled 54% primary vote in 2013, 48% in 2010, 47% in 2007, 52% in 2004, 51% in 2001, 48% in 1998, 54% in 1996, and 39% in 1993. So except for his initial election (GST election, no personal vote) his vote would have to seriously collapse to lose like that.

On the other hand, apply that 18% primary (and breakdown from other parties) to the 2013 Sturt result and that leaves Pyne on 50.5%, the ALP on around 22%, the Greens Party on around 7.5%, and Xenophon on 18% (with others totaling 2%).

On those numbers Pyne wouldn't want to get too much lower on primary votes than 48%. A lot would also depend on who the Greens Party directs their preferences to (ALP or XEN), and then if the ALP beats XEN, who XEN directs their preferences to (ALP or LP).

Pyne had his scrawny arse saved when Abbott was dumped, he didn't go down well with the doctor's wives. I'd be surprised to see him lose it now.

 

[Xsess]

The 2016 election will be a disaster for taxpayers regardless of which bunch of self serving arseholes "win".

 

[Maggie5]

Well this year has started well, just received a notice from my gas supplier that gas rates are going up yet again.
From 1.4421 per c/Mj to 1.9184.
There goes that $100 leg of lamb.

 

[pjcrows]

Coalition easily returned.

 

[RUNVS]

Well this year has started well, just received a notice from my gas supplier that gas rates are going up yet again.
From 1.4421 per c/Mj to 1.9184.
There goes that $100 leg of lamb.

But I thought removing the Carbon Tax would make everything wonderful.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

On Mayo, ReachTel poll:

LIB: 43.9 (-9.9)
ALP: 17.2 (-3.9)
NXT: 15.4 (+15.4)

Over the course of a campaign, Xenophon could top Labor on first preferences, but I'd imagine minor party preferences would see him jump irregardless.

44% would probably lose it for the Liberals

 

[Jascave]

- September
- L/NP 2PP of ~51%
- L/NP retain government with ~80 seats
- Biggest swings to Labor in SA, WA and Victoria
- Abbott and his rabid right-wingers stand for re-election, serve to embarrass the party over the year
- Turnbull's net approval rating erodes to zero by election time
- Xenophon takes two HOR seats
- Greens vote eclipses the 2010 high, no further HOR seat gains, retain all senators
- Clive Palmer defeated

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to Tony Abbott. What % swing is needed for Abbott to lose his seat?

And speaking of seats, which one would be the most critical seat to win on election night?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[medusala]

If turn bull turns out not to.be too.big a corporate who're.

ex Vampire squid.

#horsealreadybolted

 

[pazza]

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to Tony Abbott. What % swing is needed for Abbott to lose his seat?

And speaking of seats, which one would be the most critical seat to win on election night?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Abbott won last time 63-37. Probably safe.

There are 54 seats held on margins of 5% or less.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Unfortunately I think Turnbull is going to win, as Shorten is just too right wing and too unlikeable/uncharasmatic to be elected. I just hope Turnbull will be able to clear out/marginalise the far right and religious element of his party.

That is not his problem imo

 

[Gough]

This is interesting.
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...tion-seats-back-global-ban-new-coalmines-poll

A global ban on new coalmines and a transition to renewable energy enjoys support from a majority of voters in four key Coalition electorates, new polling shows.

The findings coincide with further steep declines in Indian coal imports, prompting warnings about the viability of new mines in Australia including Adani’s Carmichael proposal in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.

The phone poll, conducted by ReachTEL in the federal electorates of Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce, Peter Dutton and Kevin Hogan, was commissioned by the Australia Institute, a vocal supporter of a worldwide halt on new coalmines.

Voters were told a global moratorium would mean all countries would stop building new coalmines and expanding existing ones, but current mines would continue to operate.

About 57.3% of respondents in Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah voiced support for the idea, while 23.4% said they were opposed.

The support-to-opposition level was 50.5% to 33% in Joyce’s regional New South Wales seat of New England, 52.2% to 28.9% in Dutton’s south-east Queensland seat of Dickson, and 53.3% to 28.5% in Hogan’s northern NSW seat of Page. The remaining respondents were undecided.

Also to be noted is the nearly 50% reduction on coal exports to India, one of the narratives used in support of new coal mines.

 

[Slax]

A whole lot of promises about what they will do even more ads about what the Libs have failed to do and how Labor is owned by the unions.

In the end they will deliver about 3 of the promises, blatantly break 50% of them by doing the opposite and ignore the rest so they re-promise them the next election.

 

[JoseMourinho]

In the end they will deliver about 3 of the promises, blatantly break 50% of them by doing the opposite and ignore the rest so they re-promise them the next election.

Isn't that all political parties in a nutshell?

 

[Fire]

Isn't that all political parties in a nutshell?

It's not unusual for parties to break promises.

However it is extraordinary how many this government has done.

 

[JoseMourinho]

It's not unusual for parties to break promises.

However it is extraordinary how many this government has done.

It is actually pretty normal. The only reason why you're noticing it because they actually have a tracker for it.

I still think the ABC one is very harsh on stating that SGC being frozen is something that is "adverse" to Superannuation. It is barely a drop in the ocean and easily avoidable if a person wants to put more in.

Something "adverse" would be lowering the contribution caps or upping the tax rate to 20% or having pension phase only being taxed at 5% instead of 0%.

 

[Slax]

Isn't that all political parties in a nutshell?

It is when you have a corrupt two party system where lobbyists and unions make sure politicans remain insulated from the impact of their decisions.

Two party systems of government do not lead to good government.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I agree with the general sentiment of it being closer than expected. People don't mind Turnbull, but there aren't just question marks about most of his team - there is damning evidence of their incompetence.

If Malcolm responds to that and moves all the Abbott nuts out he will both have an inexperienced team and a bunch of angry Abbott ants undermining him. I suspect that's why he's gone so quiet. It'll be a budget followed by an election and he needs to shut up now so people aren't sick of his waffle in 6mths time.

It won't be hard for Labor to point out their fierce critics are the same people who backed Abbott - i.e. They were people who didn't know what they were talking about. On the angry internet you'll find people hating on Plibersek, Wong, etc. but in hindsight they can very easily look measured and experienced relative to a much-changed LNP. I see it being all about Shorten and how he presents himself, but I'm (eternally) hopeful that it will be about policy and both sides appear to be lining up to offer a proper policy portfolio for the election. In theory, that means Australia should win.