List Mgmt. OFFICIAL: Scott Selwood moves to Geelong as free agent

[Kwality]

Selwood named emergency in the GF and Eagles are prepared to match the Cats offer?
Have you heard of ...DOES NOT COMPUTE!

Talk about a complete bluff. Even if I was generous at the trade table all I'd throw in is Jansen or whatever pick we get for Jansen from the Lions.

Did you come down in the last shower of rain?

 

[Lana]

Games played won't be accurate as GHS hasn't played anywhere near as many games at the same time. Regardless in his 5th season he was a best and fairest winner. George is in his 5th year next year.

At the same age:

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...1=2322&tid2=10&pid2=3520&type=A&fid1=O&fid2=O

To deal with comparing players who have different games played and game time per game I use a measurement I call time on ground per stat. A smaller value indicates a higher rate of accumulation of the stat.

S.Selwood and GHS had a very similar rate of accumulation in disposals and contested possession



I included some other Geelong (and potential future Geelong mids to have something to compare their values to)

 

[one eyed cat]

M


Mackie signed a one year deal.

smith acl reconstructed, couldn't get a game at Gold Coast with only 25 fit players this year, small ie not Goldstein, Sandi, gets pushed around, calf injured constantly, hasn't done anything since doing his knee. hmac, Clarke, stanly? Let's get another injury prone tall....madness.
Bates has played 8 vfl games in two years, another injury prone player to add to the list. Has a year left available on the rookie list, they'll use it.
So doms, enright your 2 and Mackie(unless he has an amazing season) will be 32 at end of year. Thats 3.

Motlop doesn't even consider geelong his home, he's in Darwin right now.Guarantee if we get a great offer for him from Perth or Adelaide and he's gone this year. Geelong have signed up all there players this year to make sure they have trading power to avoid a Christensen situation. I think he's a jet but by the fact he only signed a two year deal, will be a free agent by then it basically means he's gone in 2 years (a la dangerfields last contract).
Simpson? 30 games in 8 years? Ok yeah let's keep him. Gone.

Of corse we will loose 9 and 27 at least for danger and "Henderson" (my bad). How else are we going to get them once they adelaide match? Plus probably next years rd1.

Fact geelong have had 5 top ten picks since wells has been there. Corey, bartel, Mackie, selwood, tenace. 80% hit rate. Plus cocky last year which is unknown at this stage.
Would you trade mackies and Corey's 26 year plus careers for 5 of dangers? Plus with the consequence of additional spots to fill with 6th and 7th round picks? That's madness!! Even tenace and selwood??? Still madness!!
Carlton judd? Ring a bell?

My point is can you seriously see a well thought out strategy here? I trust wells and co but open your eyes, something has to give. If you seriously think having 5 plus picks post the forth round in a shallow draft is something to not worry about that's crazy.

Something has to give I'm guessing it's Motlop, great value at his age, contracted and in demand. Let's face it we're not in a window and won't be for a few years, why mortgage the future? What about 2020-2025? Danger, selwood, Hawkins, Taylor, all gone. What then? No top end talent.

I don't want to believe we don't have a plan, I just can't see one. Watch this space because wells is not stupid enough the fill 5 plus spots with bottom end talent from this draft, because long term....it's madness.

Motlop was holding out for a 3yr deal, GFC would only give him 2yr deal and he still signed.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Heard Leigh Matthews unequivocal (on Melbourne radio ) that Bris will take short term pain for long term gain by forcing James Aish into the draft if wants to leave. Same dance, different step to the Eagles matching on Scooter.

But what's the point of doing that to Aish?

 

[pussygalore]

Heard Leigh Matthews unequivocal (on Melbourne radio ) that Bris will take short term pain for long term gain by forcing James Aish into the draft if wants to leave. Same dance, different step to the Eagles matching on Scooter.

Don't agree with Leigh on that one. You are just damaging the clubs reputation. You have to do right by the players.

 

[Lana]

Don't agree with Leigh on that one. You are just damaging the clubs reputation. You have to do right by the players.

He's doing to try to fix their reputation, won't work but he gets a gold star participation ribbon for trying.

 

[pussygalore]

But what's the point of doing that to Aish?

Exactly, just makes the club look stupid

 

[porgy]

Motlop was holding out for a 3yr deal, GFC would only give him 2yr deal and he still signed.

Why would geelong offer a player they wanted so badly to stay who had north and richmond chasing him only a 2 year deal? It's his management and himself setting things up for free agency offers. It's pretty obvious. His big pay day will be in 2 years time as a free agent.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Exactly, just makes the club look stupid

It does!

BTW I just LURVE your name! Actually, I'm very jelly

 

[CharacterFirst]

To deal with comparing players who have different games played and game time per game I use a measurement I call time on ground per stat. A smaller value indicates a higher rate of accumulation of the stat.

S.Selwood and GHS had a very similar rate of accumulation in disposals and contested possession

View attachment 179555

I included some other Geelong (and potential future Geelong mids to have something to compare their values to)

I like it, but I need it explained.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

+1

 

[pussygalore]

Did you come down in the last shower of rain?

I hope you do match the Selwood offer on the table and keep him. Paying good dollars for a guy to watch from the sidelines really proves a point.

 

[Teriyakicat]

To deal with comparing players who have different games played and game time per game I use a measurement I call time on ground per stat. A smaller value indicates a higher rate of accumulation of the stat.

S.Selwood and GHS had a very similar rate of accumulation in disposals and contested possession
View attachment 179562


I included some other Geelong (and potential future Geelong mids to have something to compare their values to)

If you used that to look at effective disposals, I think GHS would overtake SS, too, 10lana.

 

[one eyed cat]

SNAP!!! I only just moved to a new town three weeks ago! I think we're a pretty welcoming lot here + everyone is part of the Geelong family So welcome to BF + I hope you enjoy it as much as we are enjoying your contribution.

Thx HK, I am enjoying the whole thing, I usually spend 40min's or so reading every ones posts giving likes where needed and commenting on some that I feel I have some to offer. Cheers HK keep on posting, I enjoy all of them

 

[Teriyakicat]

I like it, but I need it explained.

+1

Please don't ask!! Look what happened the last time 10lana tried to explain his theory to me:

 

[Lana]

I like it, but I need it explained.

+1

When players have a large difference in game time you can't get a meaningful comparison by using average per game since a player can't accumulate stats when they aren't on the ground.

Consider the average disposals of a player who averages 60% game time to 80% gametime. When people just compare there averages they are implying that those starts represent the expected output of those players. Which naturally wouldn't be fair.

What I'm doing is calculating the average per % of gametime that the player is on the ground (rather than average per game). Unfortunately it gives you a result that is hard to understand at a glance. So what I did is took the reciprocal. Instead of disposals per % of game time, it is % of gametime per disposal.

Each number reflects the % of gametime on the ground that it took an average for a player to accumulate the stat. A smaller number means that a player takes less time to accumulate the stat which means that they are a more productive player. It provides away to compare players without worrying about how many times a player was the sub or missed half a game because of an injury.

In the case of GHS and S.Selwood, they both accumulate disposals and contested possessions are a very similar rate during the year of 2015. There was a negligible difference.

 

[darren forssman]

To deal with comparing players who have different games played and game time per game I use a measurement I call time on ground per stat. A smaller value indicates a higher rate of accumulation of the stat.

S.Selwood and GHS had a very similar rate of accumulation in disposals and contested possession
View attachment 179562

can you break it down to time on ground in the midfield?

 

[one eyed cat]

Why would geelong offer a player they wanted so badly to stay who had north and richmond chasing him only a 2 year deal? It's his management and himself setting things up for free agency offers. It's pretty obvious. His big pay day will be in 2 years time as a free agent.

Don't you read the the news. show us ur proof.

 

[Lana]

can you break it down to time on ground in the midfield?

Maybe if Champion data wasn't such a tease.

 

[Teriyakicat]

When players have a large difference in game time you can't get a meaningful comparison by using average per game since a player can't accumulate stats when they aren't on the ground.

Consider the average disposals of a player who averages 60% game time to 80% gametime. When people just compare there averages they are implying that those starts represent the expected output of those players. Which naturally wouldn't be fair.

What I'm doing is calculating the average per % of gametime that the player is on the ground (rather than average per game). Unfortunately it gives you a result that is hard to understand at a glance. So what I did is took the reciprocal. Instead of disposals per % of game time, it is % of gametime per disposal.

Each number reflects the % of gametime on the ground that it took an average for a player to accumulate the stat. A smaller number means that a player takes less time to accumulate the stat which means that they are a more productive player. It provides away to compare players without worrying about how many times a player was the sub or missed half a game because of an injury.

In the case of GHS and S.Selwood, they both accumulate disposals and contested possessions are a very similar rate during the year of 2015. There was a negligible difference.

Thanks 10lana. Now look what you made me do!



Now I'm going to have to spend the rest of the evening wiping my brains off the wall!

Hey Hell Kitty- got any more marbles?

 

[Lana]

Please don't ask!! Look what happened the last time 10lana tried to explain his theory to me:

View attachment 179567

I actually changed it a bit, I don't think I used the reciprocal the last time I posted it, the problem before it was before was that it was hard to compare players at a glance.

 

[darren forssman]

Maybe if Champion data wasn't such a tease.

make them up, no one would know the difference.

if only afl had a site a like basketball reference which you could make these comparisons.

 

[Lana]

make them up, no one would know the difference.

if only afl had a site a like basketball reference which you could make these comparisons.

I couldn't never use stats for evil ... unless ...

 

[Teriyakicat]

I actually changed it a bit, I don't think I used the reciprocal the last time I posted it, the problem before it was before was that it was hard to compare players at a glance.

How would it look if you factored in effective disposals %? I know that, overall, GHS's were high- high 70s from memory, while SS's would've been about 10% less.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

When players have a large difference in game time you can't get a meaningful comparison by using average per game since a player can't accumulate stats when they aren't on the ground.

Consider the average disposals of a player who averages 60% game time to 80% gametime. When people just compare there averages they are implying that those starts represent the expected output of those players. Which naturally wouldn't be fair.

What I'm doing is calculating the average per % of gametime that the player is on the ground (rather than average per game). Unfortunately it gives you a result that is hard to understand at a glance. So what I did is took the reciprocal. Instead of disposals per % of game time, it is % of gametime per disposal.

Each number reflects the % of gametime on the ground that it took an average for a player to accumulate the stat. A smaller number means that a player takes less time to accumulate the stat which means that they are a more productive player. It provides away to compare players without worrying about how many times a player was the sub or missed half a game because of an injury.

In the case of GHS and S.Selwood, they both accumulate disposals and contested possessions are a very similar rate during the year of 2015. There was a negligible difference.

Yep and it's very good to get a clearer picture especially given the sub rule so that helps.

I guess the point I was making earlier to P is that Selwood has shown himself to be and have played far superior football to that of George. Hence why combined with West Coast being a better team than us at present it's not alarming that he's on the periphery. He'd slot into our midfield comfortably and contribute in two areas of need. Clearances and run with roles.