Obviously this is educated guessing and its only for fun, but this is my shot at the top 30 picks. I have tended to presume clubs prefer players from their own state where possible - not because of the go-home factor - just because they will have a better knowledge of that player. The players I have not seen much of I have assessed on video clips, stats, general reading and other peoples ratings of the player although I admit that outside the first round it becomes highly subjective. It is subject to update following the draft camp and TAC cup finals and feedback! Interested in what you think;
Pick 1 Melbourne, Tom Scully
Melbourne to take the best player with its first pick.
Pick 2 Melbourne, Jack Trengove
I don’t think Melbourne will worry about positional needs with the second pick in the draft. Trengove is the second best player. Melbourne will appreciate one of their youngsters having senior experience and being ready to play.
Pick 3 Richmond, John Butcher
Richmond have needs all over, however a key forward target is probably their greatest and Butcher suits perfectly as he is a true forward target. Especially as they probably wont miss out on a decent midfielder with their second pick.
Pick 4 Fremantle, Anthony Morabito
Next best available player being from WA suits Fremantle with pick 4. With runners Palmer, Hill and Morabito they’ve got a bit of everything from the last 3 drafts.
Pick 5 North Melboourne, Ben Cunnington
Cunnington, Rohan or Martin and Im guessing Cunnington will just get the nod. North will be very happy with another young strong bodied midfield gun.
Pick 6 Sydney, Gary Rohan
Next best available and this attacking midfield/forward is probably not a bad fit with Sydneys other young players. Would like a ready made key forward to go with Johnson, however cant see them trading pick 6 and Rohan is too good to look past here.
Pick 7 West Coast Eagles, Kane Lucas
Next best available player being from WA suits WCE with pick 7. Probably need a small forward but not with pick 7. Another young rolls royce midfielder for the Eagles who will be deadly at stoppages by the time Natanui is developed.
Pick 8 Port Adelaide, Dustin Martin
Port would be thinking carefully about Tapscott here - but Martin is just too good to refuse at pick 8. Many have him at pick 3 or 4.
Pick 9 Hawthorn, Daniel Talia
Hawks don’t need forwards and the midfield is good so they will add the All Australian CHB to their defence.
Pick 10 Essendon, Koby Stevens
Next best available and last of the 'elites' in this draft (imo). Strong and aggressive inside midfielder to compliment their existing midfield pace is a good fit.
Pick 11 Carlton, Ben Griffiths/Matthew Panos
Would be thinking about a succession plan for Fevola and wouldn’t want Kruezer in the goalsquare. I think they will go for Griffiths but am hedging my bets with Panos.
Pick 12 Brisbane, Andrew Moore
Its getting tricky - and there are no glaring positional requirements at Brisbane which is why I guess this utility player who can play several positions well and would be considered the next best by many.
Pick 13 Adelaide, Luke Tapscott
Adelaide would be happy if this South Australian goal kicking/attacking midfielder was still around. The best kick in the draft to hit Tippett and Walker on the lead from midfield or kick goals when moved forward.
Pick 14 Collingwood, Vardy
Collingwood would be satisfied if the only decent ruckman (imo) in this draft was available here as they search for an additional and future ruck option. There is a chance that they rate others too high to take Vardy now, but it can be justified if they take him.
Pick 15 Bulldogs, Panos/Griffiths
Well documented that the Dogs are missing a lead up forward. I think Panos' lack of versatility might scare a couple of others off the All Australian full forward and the Bulldogs will pounce.
Pick 16 Geelong, Duncan
No particular positional requirements here either so I have gone for this as a forward/utility type as many have him a lot higher than pick 16. I could happily swap him with Moore at pick 12.
Pick 17 St Kilda, Christensen
Starting to guess a little on next best with this one - but most have Christensen going pretty high so St Kilda might be happy if he slides this far.
Pick 18 Melbourne, Jake Carlisle
Given their current young crop of ball carrier types it would take a very good mid-fielder for Melbourne to pass on Carlisle (or any of the tall forwards mentioned above) if they take Scully and Trengove with the first 2 picks. Gysberts would make them think though.
Pick 19 Richmond, Gysberts
If they get Butcher with their first pick, they would be happy with a utility/midfielder here and if Gysberts was around they'd be very happy with this draft.
Pick 20 Fremantle, Colyer
Fremantle wouldn’t mind a tall KPP but this All Australian midfielder is a long way ahead of the next best tall KPP (imo).
Pick 21 North Melbourne, Andrew Hooper
Larke Medal winner and All Australian is worth a decent second round pick.
Pick 22 Sydney, Jesse Chrichton
Inside ball winner who always has time and uses it well. Game style would suit the SCG and he'd be a good replacement for Kirk and the retiring Crouch.
Pick 23 West Coast Eagles, Lewis Jetta
Ive let him slide only because he's a few years older than the others. However there are big wraps on Jetta so if he makes it to WCE second pick they'll be wrapped as he'd fit a small forward positional need as well as playing on the ball if required.
Pick 24 Port Adelaide, Ah Chee
Mark Williams loves talented indigenous players and Ah Chee is quick, skillful and had a great carnival. Port might like to add some outside pace to the slightly inside Hartlett and Martin.
Pick 25 Hawthorn, Sam Shaw
Wanted to get Shaw in as not many others have mentioned him after an average carnival, but imo he still looks very good. Good sized utility who has played predominantly across half back this year and impressed for Oakleigh. Can play as a tall midfielder or rebounding defender which would suit Hawthorn.
Pick 26 Essendon, Ryan Bastinac
No reasoning for this position other than that I had to get Bastinac into my top 30 and he's probably the next best available. Could go higher.
Pick 27 Carlton, Brad Sheppard
All Australian who could be looked at anywhere from the second round onwards imo.
Pick 28 Brisbane, James Craig
Had a good carnival but even with the lack of talls on offer I believe the All Australian ruckman could slide.
Pick 29 Adelaide, Jack Fitzpatrick
I think Fitzpatrick will slide and as I have Collingwood taking Vardy with pick 1, Ive offered him to Adelaide. Collingwood may also be interested if they choose a midfielder or forward with their first pick. Many have him high in the first round.
Pick 30 Collingwood, Harwood
All Australian deserves to be in the first few rounds. Difficult splitting Harwood, Sheppard, Hooper and Colyer and Im open to suggestions as to who is better.
Pick 1 Melbourne, Tom Scully
Melbourne to take the best player with its first pick.
Pick 2 Melbourne, Jack Trengove
I don’t think Melbourne will worry about positional needs with the second pick in the draft. Trengove is the second best player. Melbourne will appreciate one of their youngsters having senior experience and being ready to play.
Pick 3 Richmond, John Butcher
Richmond have needs all over, however a key forward target is probably their greatest and Butcher suits perfectly as he is a true forward target. Especially as they probably wont miss out on a decent midfielder with their second pick.
Pick 4 Fremantle, Anthony Morabito
Next best available player being from WA suits Fremantle with pick 4. With runners Palmer, Hill and Morabito they’ve got a bit of everything from the last 3 drafts.
Pick 5 North Melboourne, Ben Cunnington
Cunnington, Rohan or Martin and Im guessing Cunnington will just get the nod. North will be very happy with another young strong bodied midfield gun.
Pick 6 Sydney, Gary Rohan
Next best available and this attacking midfield/forward is probably not a bad fit with Sydneys other young players. Would like a ready made key forward to go with Johnson, however cant see them trading pick 6 and Rohan is too good to look past here.
Pick 7 West Coast Eagles, Kane Lucas
Next best available player being from WA suits WCE with pick 7. Probably need a small forward but not with pick 7. Another young rolls royce midfielder for the Eagles who will be deadly at stoppages by the time Natanui is developed.
Pick 8 Port Adelaide, Dustin Martin
Port would be thinking carefully about Tapscott here - but Martin is just too good to refuse at pick 8. Many have him at pick 3 or 4.
Pick 9 Hawthorn, Daniel Talia
Hawks don’t need forwards and the midfield is good so they will add the All Australian CHB to their defence.
Pick 10 Essendon, Koby Stevens
Next best available and last of the 'elites' in this draft (imo). Strong and aggressive inside midfielder to compliment their existing midfield pace is a good fit.
Pick 11 Carlton, Ben Griffiths/Matthew Panos
Would be thinking about a succession plan for Fevola and wouldn’t want Kruezer in the goalsquare. I think they will go for Griffiths but am hedging my bets with Panos.
Pick 12 Brisbane, Andrew Moore
Its getting tricky - and there are no glaring positional requirements at Brisbane which is why I guess this utility player who can play several positions well and would be considered the next best by many.
Pick 13 Adelaide, Luke Tapscott
Adelaide would be happy if this South Australian goal kicking/attacking midfielder was still around. The best kick in the draft to hit Tippett and Walker on the lead from midfield or kick goals when moved forward.
Pick 14 Collingwood, Vardy
Collingwood would be satisfied if the only decent ruckman (imo) in this draft was available here as they search for an additional and future ruck option. There is a chance that they rate others too high to take Vardy now, but it can be justified if they take him.
Pick 15 Bulldogs, Panos/Griffiths
Well documented that the Dogs are missing a lead up forward. I think Panos' lack of versatility might scare a couple of others off the All Australian full forward and the Bulldogs will pounce.
Pick 16 Geelong, Duncan
No particular positional requirements here either so I have gone for this as a forward/utility type as many have him a lot higher than pick 16. I could happily swap him with Moore at pick 12.
Pick 17 St Kilda, Christensen
Starting to guess a little on next best with this one - but most have Christensen going pretty high so St Kilda might be happy if he slides this far.
Pick 18 Melbourne, Jake Carlisle
Given their current young crop of ball carrier types it would take a very good mid-fielder for Melbourne to pass on Carlisle (or any of the tall forwards mentioned above) if they take Scully and Trengove with the first 2 picks. Gysberts would make them think though.
Pick 19 Richmond, Gysberts
If they get Butcher with their first pick, they would be happy with a utility/midfielder here and if Gysberts was around they'd be very happy with this draft.
Pick 20 Fremantle, Colyer
Fremantle wouldn’t mind a tall KPP but this All Australian midfielder is a long way ahead of the next best tall KPP (imo).
Pick 21 North Melbourne, Andrew Hooper
Larke Medal winner and All Australian is worth a decent second round pick.
Pick 22 Sydney, Jesse Chrichton
Inside ball winner who always has time and uses it well. Game style would suit the SCG and he'd be a good replacement for Kirk and the retiring Crouch.
Pick 23 West Coast Eagles, Lewis Jetta
Ive let him slide only because he's a few years older than the others. However there are big wraps on Jetta so if he makes it to WCE second pick they'll be wrapped as he'd fit a small forward positional need as well as playing on the ball if required.
Pick 24 Port Adelaide, Ah Chee
Mark Williams loves talented indigenous players and Ah Chee is quick, skillful and had a great carnival. Port might like to add some outside pace to the slightly inside Hartlett and Martin.
Pick 25 Hawthorn, Sam Shaw
Wanted to get Shaw in as not many others have mentioned him after an average carnival, but imo he still looks very good. Good sized utility who has played predominantly across half back this year and impressed for Oakleigh. Can play as a tall midfielder or rebounding defender which would suit Hawthorn.
Pick 26 Essendon, Ryan Bastinac
No reasoning for this position other than that I had to get Bastinac into my top 30 and he's probably the next best available. Could go higher.
Pick 27 Carlton, Brad Sheppard
All Australian who could be looked at anywhere from the second round onwards imo.
Pick 28 Brisbane, James Craig
Had a good carnival but even with the lack of talls on offer I believe the All Australian ruckman could slide.
Pick 29 Adelaide, Jack Fitzpatrick
I think Fitzpatrick will slide and as I have Collingwood taking Vardy with pick 1, Ive offered him to Adelaide. Collingwood may also be interested if they choose a midfielder or forward with their first pick. Many have him high in the first round.
Pick 30 Collingwood, Harwood
All Australian deserves to be in the first few rounds. Difficult splitting Harwood, Sheppard, Hooper and Colyer and Im open to suggestions as to who is better.
