Millky95
Starchild > You
It'd be cool to have a pre-season prediction squiggle. Have a squiggle essentially "predicting" the entire year before round 1 then compare at the end of the year?The LIVE Squiggle
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It'd be cool to have a pre-season prediction squiggle. Have a squiggle essentially "predicting" the entire year before round 1 then compare at the end of the year?The LIVE Squiggle
That would mean the poor bastard would have no life on Friday and Saturday nights, let alone Sunday afternoons foregoing his usual Sunday session in St Kilda.The LIVE Squiggle
By the way, I'm taking suggestions on how to improve/modify that thing over the off-season.
i like this version, clearly shows the emphasis we have put on defence this year. Being nearly the only side to change that way so much may explain some of the inconsistency. Good to see we have moved into the position of competing with Geelong and Port who have regularly been talked up as flag hopefuls. I think its where we go from here next year that could have us either competing for the top 4 or staying around the bottom of the 8Round 22, 2014
Interactive squiggles!
Since it's late in the season and there are SQUIGGLY LINES EVERYWHERE, I have tried to clean up the chart a little.
North is hidden behind Geelong and Port at the moment.
Here is a version that draws a straight line from a team's starting position before Round 1 and now:
From pre-season to Round 22:
On thing this highlights is how much ground GWS and Melbourne have made up over the course of the year. They are still bad (especially Melbourne), but there is no longer an enormous gap between those two teams and everyone else. We are getting back to something resembling a normal competition, where the worst teams are at least competitive.
Sydney's year is amazing. That's a very large gain, shifting into very impressive territory.
But it's hard to ignore all those premiership cups around Hawthorn. The Hawks have moved to their flag-winning position of 2013 like it's magnetic.
Ah well I guess we are toast now.
Enjoy the finals those that are left.
Freo is least painful option for me, takes it a looooong way away, and I don't know even 1 Freo supporter!
For footys sake, I'll say go Hawks! But s**t that hurts! Cheers
Reckon Hawks had a good night last night. Didn't rock up early, Pies skills meant the lead didn't blow out, saw it was dangerous to flirt with the form, Pies were too stuffed to turn it into a real scrappy grind so had a nice tune up and will be set to go next Friday.
Given it is a very open year and you will need to win 3 finals against quality Hawthorn are the favourites imo. At their best near unstoppable and unless they have a bad day (possible) I just don't see any of the contenders going with them.
Depends on injuries but I'd be inclined to agree. The biggest final is without a doubt, Hawks vs Cats, because the winner will be almost guaranteed a finals spot, and will play either Port or Fremantle (Assuming Swans & Port win). I would say that any top 4 team at home should win their final regardless who they play.If we beat Geelong we're a good shot. If not we're not going to beat Sydney or Fremantle at home.
That's what the interactive squiggle is! Click the "Start" button then "Next Round" repeatedly to play through the season.
By the way, I'm taking suggestions on how to improve/modify that thing over the off-season.
Hawks look kind of lonely up there
Correct, they are essentially even. To split hairs, Hawthorn's aggregate is 70.75 to Sydney 70.57.If I am not mistaken, the Squiggle now rates Sydney and Hawthorn equally.
ANZ: Yes, there are VENUE algorithms that consider this. They analyze the difference between the expected and actual result and assume that some of it is due to the venue. But it's not enough to convince them to tip Freo.Final Siren is there an algorithm that gives Sydney a 1 or 2 goal disadvantage for playing in the wet and also at ANZ?
Weather introduces too much bias and there's too much error in forming an educated analysis. You would have to develop some sort of trend of team vs team at a venue with specific weather conditions to be able to objectively analyze it. This is only possible in retrospect, not so useful in forecasting, unless of course you use Roby's method of "make the s**t up as you go". Also, the data will be irrelevant, because you're only looking at the last 1-3 years, and some teams don't play at venues (eg. Swans don't play Freo at Subi & vice-versa at ANZ, Pies @ SCG).Weather: No, none of the algorithms consider this.