Stats from winning the spoon to flag since 2000

[Brant]

Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.

Chill bro, we got this

 

[mknaven]

Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.

Interesting read. Should point out that WCE made the granny if 2015 so the turnaround was 5 yrs for them. They also made the prelim in 2011 so turned it around real fast - albeit they did finish 2nd last in 2008, which is their proper rebuild starting point following the departures of Judd & Cousins.

A few other points regarding the WCE rebuild - they never got the #1 pick. The Suns concessions meant WCE got pick #4 (Gaff). In 2008 they got Nic Nat at #2 (an absolute jet imo), so key position then mid.

The problem w/ our rebuild starting back when we drafted Will Day was that it only means we started doing what every other team in the comp was doing and actually using our 1st round pick, we weren't necessarily investing in the draft more than other clubs, so relatively speaking, our rebuild isn't that advanced. This is reflected by the stat that our youth is inexperienced. Most other clubs around us in the age parameter have a significant edge in games exp.

Regarding draft quality, an interesting watch for me is Ward & CMac vs Owens & Windhager. Saints had NGA access but I'm watching that with interest, think the Saints did well with that.

 

[Argy]

Hey we're only 2 games and percentage out of the 8

And equal on points with the reigning premiers.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

This is a fun read.
OP “You can’t argue with stats”
BigFooty “Hold my beer”

to be fair you absolutely can argue with stats. Stats are just numerical represenations of a certain metric. It's still on humans to interpret them, and they can be skewed, biased or misrepresented very easily

 

[Big Hotdog]

* you blokes...I'm on a pre game high and I(we) plant to win by 15 goals tomorrow.

Spoon...syhmoon...

 

[Alex_au]

Don't rule us out to avoiding the spoon, I see us winning some games this year.

We are definately a genuine bottom 4 team though along with Gold Coast, Adelaide and Geelong.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Don't rule us out to avoiding the spoon, I see us winning some games this year.

We are definately a genuine bottom 4 team though along with Gold Coast, Adelaide and Geelong.

I'll bet you everything either of us own that Geelong do not finish close to the bottom four.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

I'll bet you everything either of us own that Geelong do not finish close to the bottom four.

 

[smeltitdeltit]

Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.

So if we win the spoon we have a 20% chance of a flag the next 20 years?? * not bad in an 18 team league. Go hawks!!

 

[Dewnior]

Would like to see the stats for teams coming from 17th, 16th, 15th and so on to get to a GF or win it

On SM-F711B using BigFooty.com mobile app

There would be more teams that have done this than haven't.

$wans did it last year

 

[hfc70]

Luke Hodge was the last real No.1 pick that had a direct impact on winning flags in my opinion. Walsh & Weitering may change that, but there’s you go.

This Harley Reid, may not be the next Hodge, but better judges than me can answer that. Also we recruited fairly well through that period , even leading up to Lewis, Roughead & Farklin draft period.

Would prefer Reid in our team than not but I guess time will tell.

 

[TylerDurden]

Luke Hodge was the last real No.1 pick that had a direct impact on winning flags in my opinion. Walsh & Weitering may change that, but there’s you go.

This Harley Reid, may not be the next Hodge, but better judges than me can answer that. Also we recruited fairly well through that period , even leading up to Lewis, Roughead & Farklin draft period.

Would prefer Reid in our team than not but I guess time will tell.

They're saying Reid would've gone at 1 last year as a 17 year old. Shows how special he is.

 

[mknaven]

I've only watched limited clips on Reid - i think he's fantastic - but one of the reasons we love his game is cos of his confidence to take the game on and the fend-offs. If he can bring the fend-offs game to AFL level I'll be stoked. We remember the SPP fend-off on silk, Dusty is great at it - and so is Punky. Pretty sure Punky held the record for most fend-offs in a season for a while and he's not a massive bloke, it's just a skill he's really good at, so there's a fair chance Reid can bring it to the next level.

Winning premierships aside, I wanna watch Reid play regularly and would definitely prefer to watch him in hawks colours than neutral colours.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Harley Reid is looking like the kind of player that will help transform the club. He's an eite talent that can impact the game anywhere in the field, but will ultimately settle as a mid/forward. He will help generate interest in the club and probably will help bring fans to the games.

In a perfect world Moir (SA) or Curtin (WA) both have absolutely dominant seasons and both Adelaide and/or WCE finish below us and are spooked by any perceived go home factor with Reid, so they take their home-state talents.

 

[lordbob]

Was just interested to see what the stats were. It will have no bearing on what happens from here but does give a good guide.
I actually hope we don’t win the spoon

Only stats that matter are that the hawks win at least 1 flag every decade. so at most a 6 year rebuild

 

[peetoo]

Should the hawks win the dubious spoon, how does the spoon droughts compare?

Port Adelaide. Never won th spoon in about 25 years
Carlton who won their first after over 100 years in vfl afl
Collingwood who won their first after 80 years in vfl afl
Essendon who had over 80 years between flags
Geelong who last won one over 70 years ago
Hawthorn who last won one 68 years ago
Next richmond 43 years between