Analysis Sydney's depth - an analysis

[The King!]

Id like more decent opportunity to the untried talent when selected next season, too much chopping and cutting in and out

Leaves a big gap when players retire

 

[swansfan51]

Now that the list has been finalised for 2016, here is the updated status. For newbies: in the past decade we have used 31-36 players throughout the season.

Players 1-28 play a lot of matches and are the ones that matter.
The 29th - 36th guys will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players have never played a game in that period.

Experienced senior players:

1. McVeigh
2. T Richards
3. Franklin
4. Grundy
5. K Jack
6. Kennedy
7. Tippett
8. McGlynn
9. Hannebery
10. Smith
11. Parker
12. Reid
13. Rampe
14. Laidler
15. Rohan
16. Cunningham
17. Lloyd
18. Mitchell
19. Talia
20. Sinclair

Others who have played seniors: (8 will have to form part of the best 28)

21. B Jack
22. Towers
23. Jones
24. Derickx
25. Heeney
26. Nankervis (5 games)
27. Rose (1.25 games)
28. X Richards (1.25 games)
29. Robinson (2 games, 2 1/4 games)
30. Naismith (0.5 games)

Pick 3 players yet to debut who will get a couple of games (pick more if you think some of the above won't play, such as Derickx):

31. [Hewett]
32. [Davis]
33. [Hiscox]

On average 2 draftees will debut:

34. Mills
35. [Draftee 2]

36. Johnson

EDIT: Number fixed, thanks S120

 

[The King!]

Rebuilding year


A few worries in the 21 to be brutally honest

Some of the players are borderline cooked

 

[doona]

Now that the list has been finalised for 2016, here is the updated status. For newbies: in the past decade we have used 31-36 players throughout the season.

Players 1-28 play a lot of matches and are the ones that matter.
The 29th - 36th guys will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players have never played a game in that period.

Experienced senior players:

1. McVeigh
2. T Richards
3. Franklin
4. Grundy
5. K Jack
6. Kennedy
7. Tippett
8. McGlynn
9. Tippett
10. Hannebery
11. Smith
12. Parker
13. Reid
14. Rampe
15. Laidler
16. Rohan
17. Cunningham
18. Lloyd
19. Mitchell
20. Talia
21. Sinclair

Others who have played seniors: (7 will have to form part of the best 28)

22. B Jack
23. Towers
24. Jones
25. Derickx
26. Heeney
27. Nankervis (5 games)
28. Rose (1.25 games)
29. X Richards (1.25 games)
30. Robinson (2 games, 2 1/4 games)
31. Naismith (0.5 games)

Pick 2 players yet to debut who will get a couple of games (pick more if you think some of the above won't play, such as Derickx):

32. [Hewett]
33. [Davis]

On average 2 draftees will debut:

34. Mills
35. [Draftee 2]

36. Johnson

Talia has played 30 games in his career and never established himself as a first 22 player at the Bulldogs.

For example, Heeney has played less games then him, but is a first 22 team player.

Talia would be in the "played seniors" category.

 

[bedford]

Talia , will improve with us

 

[RW]

Speaking of improvement, apparently Towers has been training the house down according to the Swans website, get on him for the Norm Smith!

 

[The King!]

No houses left in sydney by end of pre season with all the houses being trained down

 

[bedford]

Speaking of improvement, apparently Towers has been training the house down according to the Swans website, get on him for the Norm Smith!

He is flying like the whole club, could win the Coleman as well

 

[swansfan51]

Talia has played 30 games in his career and never established himself as a first 22 player at the Bulldogs.

For example, Heeney has played less games then him, but is a first 22 team player.

Talia would be in the "played seniors" category.

Who I put in each category is irrelevant (as are the nominal names like Hewett and Davis), the numbers are what matter. You can nominate whichever players you like

 

[S120]

swansfan51 you've got Tippett in there twice at 7 and 9. Perhaps Aliir is brought into the fold in the Hewett/Davis category.

 

[bedford]

Best 1 -liner of the pre season

 

[swansfan51]

swansfan51 you've got Tippett in there twice at 7 and 9.

Yep once as a forward and once as a ruckman

Seriously though, good pickup and my error. It is all McGlynn's fault, I went down in order of games played and was going to drop him from that category due to his utterly scrubbish 2015 but decided to keep him there. He was right before Tippett and I must have got mixed up

 

[S120]

Rebuilding year


A few worries in the 21 to be brutally honest

Some of the players are borderline cooked

I presume you mean McGlynn and Ted? Talia/Rampe/Grundy will surely be taking some of the slack this year from Ted finally and while when he's fit McGlynn is still easily a best 22 player, I don't think he's quite as essential as he used to be with Cunningham seemingly growing a bit of a spine and Heeney, Mills around as a bit of developing class across HF. A full season in the forward line would be ideal from McGlynn (and Rohan, mind you, he really needs to get a kick on though I'm not confident it'll happen).

I think we'll be off the very best 2 or 3 teams in the comp but we'll still be a finals side that pushes for the 4 IMO. The current period reminds reminds me a little of the lead up to 2012. This year being 2010 and I think next season could be something like 2011. Consolidating with some younger guys taking on more responsibility while some of the older flock see themselves out.

That's the optimist in me anyway. Could be train wreck, but I doubt it.

 

[RUNVS]

No houses left in sydney by end of pre season with all the houses being trained down

Towers improved so much in the last 5 weeks of last season so I am not going to dismiss those reports at all.

 

[Jack2Jack]

Group 1. The top end of our best 22. has a lot of quality, and you would need a fairly nice run to that group of players to be finals side.

Group 2. The players in the best 22 who need to take the next step, as usual, there'll always 1 or 2 a year who do but to be a serious finals side (i.e a side who could some damage) we probably need a couple more than usual.

Group 3. The fringe 'kids' some who've been in and out who need to step up and become consistent role players. Again there will be 1 or 2, but if we're going to cover injuries at all we need a couple extra.

Group 4. The actual kids, who you can't expect too much from, but as always 1 or 2 will come from nowhere and play a lot of football in 2016, which helps the depth a bit.

Not too concerned about the guys in group 1 a few go missing mosre than they should, but they've been the heart of our relative success under Horse. Group 2 is where it gets a bit concerning, there's more players in that batch then there should be, which means some players aren't developing at the rate probably expected (there's a few genuine and understandable reasons but never the less it still hasn't happened). There's a huge drop in experience from group 2 to group 3 which highlights a real lack of quality (or at least proven quality) depth.

So... if the stars aligned and we had a good injury run, with a few extra players than usual going to the next level we could maintain a top 4 status. On the flipside though an average-bad injury run (to the guys in the top 10-12) with little improvement from those who need to step up could see us plummet big time (as in bottom 4).
If you were betting you'd expect a bit of both, probably lose a couple good players to injury, a few guys will step up and a few others will disappoint, a few kids will excite, probably leaving us with a 5th-8th finish at the end of the H & A season.

Of course this is ignoring external factors, if Hawthorn & WC dropped a level with no one else stepping up, we'd have to be a sneaky chance in a weak/even year (if dream scenario above occurred). If it's the type of year where there's 1 or 2 really dominant teams I can't see us doing it (even if the dream scenario above happened).

 

[The King!]

Towers improved so much in the last 5 weeks of last season so I am not going to dismiss those reports at all.

We were forced to pick him and he actually got a few kicks and was reasonable as well he should be at his age. Needs to prove he is reliable

 

[Neverwas]

Now that the list has been finalised for 2016, here is the updated status. For newbies: in the past decade we have used 31-36 players throughout the season.

Players 1-28 play a lot of matches and are the ones that matter.
The 29th - 36th guys will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players have never played a game in that period.

Experienced senior players:

1. McVeigh
2. T Richards
3. Franklin
4. Grundy
5. K Jack
6. Kennedy
7. Tippett
8. McGlynn
9. Tippett
10. Hannebery
11. Smith
12. Parker
13. Reid
14. Rampe
15. Laidler
16. Rohan
17. Cunningham
18. Lloyd
19. Mitchell
20. Talia
21. Sinclair

Others who have played seniors: (7 will have to form part of the best 28)

22. B Jack
23. Towers
24. Jones
25. Derickx
26. Heeney
27. Nankervis (5 games)
28. Rose (1.25 games)
29. X Richards (1.25 games)
30. Robinson (2 games, 2 1/4 games)
31. Naismith (0.5 games)

Pick 2 players yet to debut who will get a couple of games (pick more if you think some of the above won't play, such as Derickx):

32. [Hewett]
33. [Davis]

On average 2 draftees will debut:

34. Mills
35. [Draftee 2]

36. Johnson

When you look at the best 22 on paper it is an extremely strong team (even though there are a number of inexperienced players such as Heeney, Mills, Towers, Jones and Sinclair in my 22). But once there are injuries you have very few player with experience to choose from. In my book, the only 3 who have any experience at all to speak of are McGlynn (can't have him in the best 22 after last season) Talia (30 games) and BJ (27 games, who could force his way into the 22). Rose, Robinson, Naismith, Nankervis and XR have about 15 games between them.Depending where the injuries fall, that could force the selection of debutants earlier than expected, with Aliir, Davis and Hewett all in the running.

Not particularly concerned at the prospect of the youngsters getting a game because I think most of those that have had a go have performed well when given the chance (Niasmith's debut excluded, but he is much more mature now) because they have been in our system for a while and they won't have gone backwards.

 

[Leg End]

Don't underestimate the importance of having some ruck depth, at last.
Pyke and Mumford were stellar for us.
Pyke alone - with a shot knee - was always going to be tough.
Tippett, Sinclair and possible backup in Naismith plugs a big gap.

If we get to the ball first more often - we will still smash most sides.

Still not sure how we plug the biggest gap - (18-6 free kick against us in one half in prelim on our homeground) - but still working on it. More to come.

 

[Cadsky]

Still not sure how we plug the biggest gap - (18-6 free kick against us in one half in prelim on our homeground) - but still working on it. More to come.

Sack all the biass umpires. Oh wait... then whos gonna umpire?

 

[RUNVS]

For me

Category 1 - Players we know are in our best 22 every week if fit
1. Franklin
2. Grundy
3. Hannebery
4. Heeney
5. K.Jack
6. Kennedy
7. McVeigh
8. Mitchell
9. Parker
10. Rampe
11. Reid
12. Rohan
13. Smith
14. Tippett


Category 2 - Players who are in the best 22 right now but could be pushed out due to form or age
1. Cunningham
2. Jones
3. Laidler
4. Llyod
5. T.Richards
6. Talia
7. Sinclair
8. McGlynn


Category 3 - Players who have not fully proven they are best 22 quality yet but have shown signs
1. Towers
2. Robinson
3. X.Richards
4. B.Jack
5. Rose
6. Nankervis


Category 4 - Drafted players we strongly suspect will be a best 22 player in 2016
1. Mills

Category 5 - Player who when fit is in the best 22 but can't be relied on to be fit
1. Johnson


Including Johnson that is a grand total of 30 players. If Johnson is not fit that is only 29 players meaning we only need 7 injuries before the Swans are selecting unknown players in terms of what they can produce at an AFL level.

 

[doona]

Who I put in each category is irrelevant (as are the nominal names like Hewett and Davis), the numbers are what matter. You can nominate whichever players you like

Why have the categories then for the players? If the emphasis is on the brackets/numbers?:

Players 1-28 play lot of matches and are the ones that matter.
The 29th - 36th guys will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players have never played a game in that period.

Then add the relevant additional topics/numbers like draftees that emphasis what you are writing?

Would just make the idea of the posting clearer in my opinion.

P.s I love your ideas, stats etc...

 

[stew42]

Decided to make a 2nd XI for us. I understand that we use a few Academy kids/other ringins for our NEAFL side, but it's interesting to see where our depth really is. Was particularly tricky given our smaller list size.
And yes, Derickx isn't in there. Personal bias


B: L Melican - A Aliir - N Newman
HB: T Leonardis - X Richards - H Marsh
C: J Hiscox - J Foote - S Murray
HF: B McGlynn - T Nankervis - D Towers
F: J Rose - A Davis - K Galloway
Fol: S Naismith - D Robinson - G Hewitt
INT: B Jack - C O'Riordan - T Papley - J Dawson

 

[RUNVS]

Decided to make a 2nd XI for us. I understand that we use a few Academy kids/other ringins for our NEAFL side, but it's interesting to see where our depth really is. Was particularly tricky given our smaller list size.
And yes, Derickx isn't in there. Personal bias


B: L Melican - A Aliir - N Newman
HB: T Leonardis - X Richards - H Marsh
C: J Hiscox - J Foote - S Murray
HF: B McGlynn - T Nankervis - D Towers
F: J Rose - A Davis - K Galloway
Fol: S Naismith - D Robinson - G Hewitt
INT: B Jack - C O'Riordan - T Papley - J Dawson

So apparently we have depth almost no where

 

[stew42]

So apparently we have depth almost no where

It is a bit worrying, isn't it? The only guys I'd be "comfortable" with playing in the seniors are BJack, McGlynn and Towers

 

[scaryness]

More worried about the 30+ year olds than the depth.