The next country

[Allan Shorty]

Since Ukraine is now struggling to even support the west and hold that part of the nation together, Donetsk and Lugansk are looking more firm by the day. The only ones who have real will to keep the break away provinces are in the USA or wear "SS" symbols. However they might go the way of Crimea in any case.

There's breaking away and then there's actual statehood. Those ones surely will just freeze - like Abkhazia, nagorno k, transdnistria, etc. Etc. Bougainville is the only one I know of where a referendum has been agreed.

Somaliland is another one. What's the hold up there why don't they get international recognition?

 

[Allan Shorty]

Haha Kosovo, what did people expect by giving a swathe of land to a bunch of terrorists and gangsters involved in drug and gun smuggling and people trafficking across Europe?

Kurdistan has been "promised" before. I don't know if the Kurds have had their own army and as much autonomy as they now enjoy in northern Iraq. If they play their cards right they might get more support in Syria.
The problem with Kurdistan is how do you convince the Iraqi's? That's a s**t load of oil revenue that they'd be letting go.
The other problem is how will the dust settle in Syria? Assad was meant to be long gone by now.
Another problem is Iran.
Iraq is one of two major obstacles. The other is Turkey. Sure, give the Kurds in Iraq or Syria independence. What about the Kurds in Turkey? The Turks have been fighting a war against the PKK terrorist group for years.
On the Turkey-Syria border the town of Kobane(I think, spelling?) has been the scene of heavy fighting between ISIS and the Kurdish forces.
The Turks have massed on their side of the border and shut it down for Kurds trying to flee.
People are being butchered, and the Turkish army, a NATO army, stands by watching it happen. That's how much empathy they have with the Kurds, especially when Syria is concerned as Assad is accused by Turkey of having supported the PKK in Turkey.

agree re Kosovo. A joke of a state and destabilising for the region, particularly Macedonia. They got lucky.

 

[FPPF]

agree re Kosovo. A joke of a state and destabilising for the region, particularly Macedonia. They got lucky.

It wasn't that they got lucky exactly, it was more that they had a few people in the halls of power in Washington that were sympathetic to their cause because their cause allowed the Americans to further their own agenda..namely creating a transit route and hub for those illicit things I mentioned. It's well known that US intelligence or factions within, are involved in those illicit global trades. The infamous black budgets aren't funded entirely by federal funds you know.. Heroin production in Afghanistan exploded after the American invasion and occupation..to the point where at one point something like 70-80% of the heroin in the world was coming from Afghanistan's poppy fields.

There's some things you don't mess with on the geopolitical arena..and that is the Banksters and the American's interests(both overt and covert).
All these countries that are under the hammer right now, or have had regime change, or civil wars, or colour revolutions, or spring uprisings and so on, have in some way messed with those things.

The problem now is that those same Albanian terrorists, terror groups that are basically the one group changing their name to suit the region..have been emboldened by the result in Kosovo.
That's why in FYROM they cause problems. At one point during I believe the war in FYROM, the authorities there had surrounded and cut off a group of Albanian terrorists. But then they were told to hold their positions and not attack or capture them, as American helicopters arrived and pulled the terrorists out. The Albanian problem for FYROM has never really gone away..the Albanians envisage taking practically half of FYROM, and together with parts of Greece, Montenegro, and more parts of Serbia, and Kosovo of course, forming a Greater Albanian state.
Trouble is that many of the Albanians in FYROM are actually refugees from the Kosovo war. In Greece almost all the Albanians are illegal immigrants, many of whom have had kids there now anyway.
The next problem for the region could come if Greece destablizes further with the economic situation. It was only a few years ago that the Albanian terrorists made "threats" against Greece. If Greece is destablized, they might try their luck. They'll be crushed becaues the Greek military isn't the FYROM military and there wont be any NATO helicopters coming in to rescue them, but they might just be dumb enough to try. Un;ess the Albanian government reigns them in(which they deny having any involvement with them, but come on, you'd have to be blind freddy to believe that), which I doubt they ever will.

The problem with all these new countries and potential new countries is that the method of granting them independence isn't fair and isn't uniform, and double standards are applied.
If we can give Kosovo independence from a sovereign Serbia and recognize Kosovo, we should be giving it to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, etc.
But politics and agendas get in the way.
I mean, if it's the right thing to do for Kosovo, it should be the right thing to do elsewhere as well.

 

[awaremind]

It wasn't that they got lucky exactly, it was more that they had a few people in the halls of power in Washington that were sympathetic to their cause because their cause allowed the Americans to further their own agenda..namely creating a transit route and hub for those illicit things I mentioned. It's well known that US intelligence or factions within, are involved in those illicit global trades. The infamous black budgets aren't funded entirely by federal funds you know.. Heroin production in Afghanistan exploded after the American invasion and occupation..to the point where at one point something like 70-80% of the heroin in the world was coming from Afghanistan's poppy fields.

There's some things you don't mess with on the geopolitical arena..and that is the Banksters and the American's interests(both overt and covert).
All these countries that are under the hammer right now, or have had regime change, or civil wars, or colour revolutions, or spring uprisings and so on, have in some way messed with those things.

The problem now is that those same Albanian terrorists, terror groups that are basically the one group changing their name to suit the region..have been emboldened by the result in Kosovo.
That's why in FYROM they cause problems. At one point during I believe the war in FYROM, the authorities there had surrounded and cut off a group of Albanian terrorists. But then they were told to hold their positions and not attack or capture them, as American helicopters arrived and pulled the terrorists out. The Albanian problem for FYROM has never really gone away..the Albanians envisage taking practically half of FYROM, and together with parts of Greece, Montenegro, and more parts of Serbia, and Kosovo of course, forming a Greater Albanian state.
Trouble is that many of the Albanians in FYROM are actually refugees from the Kosovo war. In Greece almost all the Albanians are illegal immigrants, many of whom have had kids there now anyway.
The next problem for the region could come if Greece destablizes further with the economic situation. It was only a few years ago that the Albanian terrorists made "threats" against Greece. If Greece is destablized, they might try their luck. They'll be crushed becaues the Greek military isn't the FYROM military and there wont be any NATO helicopters coming in to rescue them, but they might just be dumb enough to try. Un;ess the Albanian government reigns them in(which they deny having any involvement with them, but come on, you'd have to be blind freddy to believe that), which I doubt they ever will.

The problem with all these new countries and potential new countries is that the method of granting them independence isn't fair and isn't uniform, and double standards are applied.
If we can give Kosovo independence from a sovereign Serbia and recognize Kosovo, we should be giving it to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, etc.
But politics and agendas get in the way.
I mean, if it's the right thing to do for Kosovo, it should be the right thing to do elsewhere as well.

This is the exact (sensible) argument the Russians are making about Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, cant have it both ways.

 

[Allan Shorty]

I won't engage in the ensuing argument but come on, FYROM?, its Macedonia. Let's grow up a bit.

Luck and timing has a big part to play in successful independence movements.

 

[FPPF]

I won't engage in the ensuing argument but come on, FYROM?, its Macedonia. Let's grow up a bit.

Luck and timing has a big part to play in successful independence movements.

It's FYROM.
The United Nations recognizes them as Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as does the Australian government and all major international organizations and bodies.
When they stop claiming the history of my ancestors, I'll consider calling them Macedonia. But I don't think that's going to happen any time soon when they are busy building statues of Ancient Greeks and naming things after them.
Calling them Macedonia, when they continue on with irredentist policies, simply emboldens their stupidity.

You can call them Macedonia if you want.

Luck and timing have nothing to do with the Albanian problem in the Balkans.
The Albanian problem existed before the Americans got involved and gave Kosovo independence, and will exist long after the American's interests change in the region.

These people want independence not because they are being persecuted or oppressed, but because they have a hatred of the other peoples in the region and have the idea(and mentality), that all these other lands somehow belong to them. Their belief is that all these other peoples should be removed from these lands and these lands united with Albania. That is their ultimate goal.
Such people with such mentalities do not belong in a union with other European nations. Europe should be thankful that there's other reason they haven't been eligible to join yet. Because if western Europe thinks problems with Albanian organized crime gangs are bad till now, wait till Albanians get visa free travel across the EU.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Cyprus is another contender for next new state

I've spent time in western Macedonia. Surprised they've held it together so long with hostile neighbours on every side and inside. As for the Albanians, I think the promise of the EU can work as a bait for reform as it has fairly well for many others in the region.

 

[FPPF]

Cyprus is another contender for next new state

I've spent time in western Macedonia. Surprised they've held it together so long with hostile neighbours on every side and inside. As for the Albanians, I think the promise of the EU can work as a bait for reform as it has fairly well for many others in the region.

Cyprus is already a state.
I think you mean the occupied north of Cyprus. It can't be recognized as a separate state because there's UN resolutions in place regarding the military occupation. Recognizing northern Cyprus as a separate state would also be taking a huge sh** on the Geneva convention, which Turkey has violated and continues to violate there.
But the way our side, the West, applies double standards and makes and breaks rules at a whim, I wouldn't be surprised if at some stage in the future it is recognized(assuming the status quo on the island remains).

FYROM doesn't have any hostile neighbors. No country that borders FYROM anyway. What they have is a few pissed off neighbors. Pissed off because the government and institutions in FYROM are taking bits and pieces of practically all neighboring countries histories and heritages and claiming them as their own, in some pieced together botch job of a make believe national history.

In any case, the Albanians there wont create a new state, what they want is to split the west/north west of FYROM and join it with Kosovo or Albania..the ultimate goal for them being a greater Albania. It wont happen any time soon though because Kosovo was a one off as it gelled with US interests.
Breaking the Balkans up further at this stage isn't in US interests, because the Russian's are on the prowl. What the US needs is stable countries now.

 

[Slax]

Since Ukraine is now struggling to even support the west and hold that part of the nation together, Donetsk and Lugansk are looking more firm by the day. The only ones who have real will to keep the break away provinces are in the USA or wear "SS" symbols. However they might go the way of Crimea in any case.

Can see this happening before end of 2016. Bouganville will be before it. Kurdistan is also not too far away.

ISIS is an interesting one, they have put in place a number of systems which are the making of government including taxes. I can see a time when they will consolidate. What they end up being called though will remain to be seen as I can't see Islamic State being agreed to as a name. They have formed themselves into more than a rag tag army of fundamentalists.

 

[The Speaker]

Can see this happening before end of 2016. Bouganville will be before it. Kurdistan is also not too far away.

ISIS is an interesting one, they have put in place a number of systems which are the making of government including taxes. I can see a time when they will consolidate. What they end up being called though will remain to be seen as I can't see Islamic State being agreed to as a name. They have formed themselves into more than a rag tag army of fundamentalists.

IS have no intention of entering into the wider world. They will not stop until they bring about their Caliphate across the world, and you have to either submit, or die. The borders of sovereign states have little meaning to them, beyond forcing them into using 'provinces' for their offshoots.

They are well organised, but that doesn't mean they subscribe to the Westphalian idea of statehood.

 

[Slax]

IS have no intention of entering into the wider world. They will not stop until they bring about their Caliphate across the world, and you have to either submit, or die. The borders of sovereign states have little meaning to them, beyond forcing them into using 'provinces' for their offshoots.

They are well organised, but that doesn't mean they subscribe to the Westphalian idea of statehood.

Even with them being organised there is only so far they can grow before they have to start looking at how to properly service their Caliphate. Those that have fought won't want to forever and then if they are left living in poor conditions they will grow restless.

 

[The Speaker]

Even with them being organised there is only so far they can grow before they have to start looking at how to properly service their Caliphate. Those that have fought won't want to forever and then if they are left living in poor conditions they will grow restless.

Most of those fighting are young men who have been taught the end of the world is near, and they are happy to die to bring it about. The intention being for them to fight to the death, and bring in more young men from abroad. IS gains its legitmacy from expansion.

 

[MaddAdam]

South Sudan was the last. What will be the next?

I should say I support the creation of viable states. I never thought Kosovo was viable and it has become a criminal state like transdnistria Really but there it is.

Bougainville likely. Kurdistan looks likely soonish. Scotland a bit later. West Papua is miles Off. Quebec miles off. Abkhazia has no chance. Chechnya is possible post Putin.

Scotland very likely within 5 years.

 

[blackcat]

Cyprus is already a state.
I think you mean the occupied north of Cyprus. It can't be recognized as a separate state because there's UN resolutions in place regarding the military occupation. Recognizing northern Cyprus as a separate state would also be taking a huge sh** on the Geneva convention, which Turkey has violated and continues to violate there.
But the way our side, the West, applies double standards and makes and breaks rules at a whim, I wouldn't be surprised if at some stage in the future it is recognized(assuming the status quo on the island remains).

Turkey is strategically vital to the Americans.

What the US needs is stable countries now.

depends. if Russia or China have interests in Africa or the ME, the Americans wish to foment an instability.

 

[MaddAdam]

Turkey is strategically vital to the Americans.

depends. if Russia or China have interests in Africa or the ME, the Americans wish to foment an instability.

Hence the Americans now literally playing all sides of the Al-Sham and Land of the Two Rivers War - bombing ISIS and flying direct close air support for IRGC commanded militia in Iraq. Now sending rebels in to take on Assad in Syria and providing them with air cover from Turkey and keeping the Kurds just strong enough to stand up, but not strong enough to actually win.

The real US game is "pivot to Asia", everything hangs on that - its what TPP is about ffs, Marines in Darwin, jeez, there's joint Vietnamese-US war games these days.

US needs to keep Iran, the Gulf and Russia all enmeshed in Syria/Iraq and prevent the Chinese getting access to the cheap oil the Iranians would love to sell them (given Iran/"Shiastan" has the world's largest oil reserves , since it controls Iraq's government).

That Syria/Iraq fight is being deliberately managed and kept burning at just the right remperature so nobody can win, but nobody can pull out.

Obama (who has said publicly he doesn't forget what happened in Kenya in the 50s) using masterly British empire tactics that Bush, who used 1940 German tactics, could have learned from.

 

[MaddAdam]

Hence the nicey nicey lately with the Iranians - keep your friends close and your enemies even closer.

 

[blackcat]

Hence the nicey nicey lately with the Iranians - keep your friends close and your enemies even closer.

they also wanna take back control of their ME fopo from Tel Aviv and Bibi.

which if Bushjnr gets in, Bibi wont have the protection of congress, because the GOP will have a guy in Whitehouse, they wont play to Bibi to try to wedge a Democrat in the Whitehouse.

But Hilary is more partial to Israel than both Bush and current POTUS Obama. not that Obama was not partial, but he did not surrender holus bolus to Bibi.

I wonder how many latino votes a GOP candidate can snare in the forthcoming election.

 

[FPPF]

The muslim world is at war with it self these days. Doesn't take a genius to figure out whose behind that.

Divide and conquer. Probably as old as prostitution, and still just as effective.

 

[MaddAdam]

The muslim world is at war with it self these days. Doesn't take a genius to figure out whose behind that.

Divide and conquer. Probably as old as prostitution, and still just as effective.

Yeah, the Sunni/Shia split has been going on for a bit longer than the events we're discussing.

 

[CountryRace]

Yeah, the Sunni/Shia split has been going on for a bit longer than the events we're discussing.

True but there is truth in op statement also

 

[MaddAdam]

True but there is truth in op statement also

I just read biography of Saladin. He was a Sunni Kurd who faced initial real problems with the Shia in Egypt before he decided to take on Christians who had come from Europe.

Plus ca change as the Froggos would say.

 

[blackcat]

The muslim world is at war with it self these days. Doesn't take a genius to figure out whose behind that.

Divide and conquer. Probably as old as prostitution, and still just as effective.

Bernard Lewis and Ze'ev Jabotinsky had this right.

the antecedents are actually Sykes Picot and Balfour. not what i think you are intimating, but i could be wrong on what you are implying?

 

[MaddAdam]

Bernard Lewis and Ze'ev Jabotinsky had this right.

the antecedents are actually Sykes Picot and Balfour. not what i think you are intimating, but i could be wrong on what you are implying?

Seen the IS video where they bulldoze the border berm between Syria and Iraq? Its called "The Death of Sykes-Picot" or similar.

I'd post it here but I'm not sure how Chief feels about links to Da'esh vids on his site.

 

[FPPF]

Yeah, the Sunni/Shia split has been going on for a bit longer than the events we're discussing.

Well yeh, and it's now being exploited by the West.

 

[MaddAdam]

Well yeh, and it's now being exploited by the West.

It has been exploited by the West for the better part of a thousand years.