Lets say both Pies and Tigers are only a 20% chance to win (statisically overstating it) and WC has a 60% chance to win .
The odds on all 3 happening (Pies and Tigers losing and WC winning) is roughly 25%.
I'd put the odds of Richmond beating Sydney in Sydney at about 2-3%. I'd put the odds of Collingwood beating Hawthorn at about 5-10%. I think 60-65% is about right for us. All up I think its about 50/50 we make it, maybe just under when we take Adelaide into account.