Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[mcnulty]

In case I need to make it clear, I'm not a Putin supporter. Can't I be interested in his response?

You can be interested in it all you like. If it informs your opinion I genuinely feel sorry for you.

 

[JayJ20]

You can be interested in it all you like. If it informs your opinion I genuinely feel sorry for you.

What are you on about? I never said I'll adopt Putin's opinion. I said it's interesting to see what he says and how he justifies it.
The US reportedly warned them of this attack and they seem to have ignored it. So what justification is he going to provide?

All I'm saying is that I'm interested to know.

 

[Rob R]

I think Russia has only just figured out that they don't have the capacity to take on NATO.

I don't think their plans were based on that reality.

Do you think they will change their plans, or try to change military reality?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't think they thought the.west would do anything just like Xi thinks with Taiwan (encouraged by our failure to introduce well deserved sanctions in response to Hong Kong, Bhutan, seizure of West Philipine sea islands etc) and Hitler thought until he pushed it too far in Poland.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

Many Russian republics have a significant Muslim population going back to the Mongolian / Ottoman empires of which Mosovia invaded / annexed much of.

They wanted independence post USSR era. These terror attacks are an internal Russian issue.

Maybe the worlds a better place if the RF dissolves into independent republics. Russia becomes it's original form - Moscovia / Grand duchy of Moscow.

 

[Thrawn]

Do you think they will change their plans, or try to change military reality?

If they're successful in Ukraine, they'll use that country as a buffer. They'll already have the trillions of dollars worth of natural gas and other resources, so I don't really see the cost-benefit analysis being on the positive side if they decide to invade Poland and beyond.

 

[EagleMan87]

If they're successful in Ukraine, they'll use that country as a buffer. They'll already have the trillions of dollars worth of natural gas and other resources, so I don't really see the cost-benefit analysis being on the positive side if they decide to invade Poland and beyond.

But, doesn't Crimea have trillions of dollars worth of natural gas and other resources?

Russia got that, for free, and then decided to invade the rest of Ukraine anyway.

 

[Mobbs]

Currently reading reports that seems to be confirmed about those who attacked the Crocus, so I'll try to summarise.

Natives of Tajikstan, residents of Russian towns in Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, Samara regions.

Escaped in the same vehicle which brought them to the Crocus, which overturned when shot at by authorities - this happened in Bryansk oblast. One member of the group was detained there, and has been treated for injuries following the car accident. His name is Mukhamadsobir Fayzov - he's 19. I think they're getting most of their info via him.
Edit: Recently there are reports of locals in Ivanovo threatening to burn down the barbershop where Fayzov had been employed.

Edit: Two persons of interest are Ismonov Rivojiddin and Nasridinov Mahmadrasul, though the Tajik Ministry of Internal Affairs report that they are confirmed to be at home in the respective homes in Tajikstan. [BAZA TG]

Another suspect is Ruslan Nazarov, though he was not at the Crocus. However it might be simply that he's a suspect because he used to own the car. He saw his name come up among media reports and went to his local police station to clear it up. [ASTRA TG]

Mostly gleaned from BAZA TG - Here's one [post link] but the info is scattered over other posts which follow afterwards as well.

Edit: A detained participant was interviewed and said he was to be paid 500,000 RUB for his actions. [BAZA TG (video of the Q&A)]. There is no solid evidence that this is a legitimate video or suspect. [DOXA TG]

It's important to note that this info is mostly coming from Russian authorities. Russia have a patchy history with past terrorist attacks, where commonly they eventually capture and charge someone from a neighbouring region (eg Ingush, Ossete) and show them off as "found the terrorists" despite substantial evidence that they had nothing to do with it.

Edit: Deaths estimate is now increased to 115 people. [SOTA TG]. Further edit: Now 143 [BAZA TG]. Worst attack on Russian territory since the Beslan School massacre.

More links :
Six people were originally in the car. 4 escaped the Crocus in it. When it was shot at in the Bryansk region, it overturned, and 2 escaped on foot. 2 others were detained. [SOTA TG]
11 people in total have apparently been detained in various places, including 4 wanted terrorists. [SOTA TG]
FSB stated that the escaping terrorists were hoofing it to Ukraine, where it is claimed they had some contacts within Ukraine. While this is not verified, the vector of their flight is generally in the Ukraine direction. [SOTA TG]
It's noted that the car was intercepted at a crossroads town where both Ukraine and Belarus could have been next stop on the trajectory. A lot of the Ukraine claims are coming from the usual hyperbole mouthpieces eg Simonyan. [ASTRA TG]. The car was initially reported to have been stopped closer to Belarus, but the location was updated later [ASTRA TG]
Tajikistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges all to be wary of claims which might not be official Russian government announcements. Among the legitimate information, there have been dubious claims as well. [ASTRA TG]
At least 3 Tajik suspects are said to be have been nowhere near Russia, not to mention nowhere near the Crocus, when the event occurred. [DOXA TG]

 

[Zidane98]

If they're successful in Ukraine, they'll use that country as a buffer. They'll already have the trillions of dollars worth of natural gas and other resources, so I don't really see the cost-benefit analysis being on the positive side if they decide to invade Poland and beyond.

They're already massively in the red from the invasion. Trillions of dollars of natural resources that will largely be obsolete within 40-50 years. Natural gas & Urals oil prices obliterated after an initial post invasion spike.


Meanwhile they have to sell it at a discount to those who will deal with them. China is making Russia pay for a new pipeline to take gas off them at half price.

Russia is in a terrible state and every day Putin continues a frivolous war is another day deeper in the red for him.


If Russia wants to secure natural resource income for the near future a complete withdrawal from Ukraine is an absolute must.

 

[Visions]

As sure as night becomes day, the ******* Russians are blaming this on Ukraine.

After their intelligence services being embarrassed because they spend more time chasing phantom threats than real ones like this, they spent the better part of a day having to come up with a cover up, and the best the mentally inept muppets could come up with was this.

 

[jatz14]

If they're successful in Ukraine, they'll use that country as a buffer. They'll already have the trillions of dollars worth of natural gas and other resources, so I don't really see the cost-benefit analysis being on the positive side if they decide to invade Poland and beyond.

It wouldn't be on the positive side if I ran Russia, or if you ran Russia.

But Putin does.

I don't think he adds these things up the way we do.

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[Jamolad]

As sure as night becomes day, the ******* Russians are blaming this on Ukraine.

After their intelligence services being embarrassed because they spend more time chasing phantom threats than real ones like this, they spent the better part of a day having to come up with a cover up, and the best the mentally inept muppets could come up with was this.

Wonder how many copies of the Sims 3 game they were carrying

 

[Mobbs]

Explosions reportedly in Sevastopol recently:
View attachment IMG_6206.MP4
[ASTRA TG] (crediting Crimean Wind)

About 20 explosions have already been counted in Sevastopol, subscribers report. Razvozzhaev said that the air defense shot down more than 10 missiles. There was an arrival at an office building, and shrapnel also damaged several residential buildings. One woman was injured. [ASTRA TG]

Edit: It's been suggested these were Storm Shadows, and they struck the main communications centre for the Black Sea Fleet. Interesting target in light of the recent mass wave of attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which were fired mostly from the Black Sea.

 

[Thrawn]

They're already massively in the red from the invasion. Trillions of dollars of natural resources that will largely be obsolete within 40-50 years. Natural gas & Urals oil prices obliterated after an initial post invasion spike.


Meanwhile they have to sell it at a discount to those who will deal with them. China is making Russia pay for a new pipeline to take gas off them at half price.

Russia is in a terrible state and every day Putin continues a frivolous war is another day deeper in the red for him.


If Russia wants to secure natural resource income for the near future a complete withdrawal from Ukraine is an absolute must.

I think that number of years is very optimistic. You'll still need fossil fuels to manufacture certain things, short of getting fusion power to become viable, I don't think there'll be some massive paradigm shift within 100 years.

 

[Mobbs]

There have apparently also been arrivals in other locations on the Crimean peninsula, including Belbek airfield. [Voice of Crimea TG]

Among the various posts re the Sevastopol explosions, is a conversation among residents as they watch explosions outside their window, where it is said "Why do we even live here?" answered by "Don't cry. It's like this everywhere now."

 

[Zidane98]

I think that number of years is very optimistic. You'll still need fossil fuels to manufacture certain things, short of getting fusion power to become viable, I don't think there'll be some massive paradigm shift within 100 years.

Natural gas isn't going to be worth mutch by 2050. Developed countries are already dumping it for residential use.

If Putin could actually not be a raging fascist invader he could focus on maximising Russia's financial return on natural gas while it is worth something.

 

[Millky95]

Well ISIS have released GoPro footage of the attack for all the non-believers:

Spoiler: GRPAHIC NSFW

 

[Mobbs]

"We are faced with a plan to massacre civilians." - Putin

It's part of his statement on the Crocus tragedy, but try reading it alongside this report of a RF drone attack on a POI in Kherson region:
It became known about three people injured as a result of a drone attack on the Point of Invincibility in the Kherson region. A 74-year-old woman with a mine-explosive injury and a hand injury and a 61-year-old local resident with a concussion were taken to the hospital. A 54-year-old man was also injured. Doctors diagnosed him with a mine-explosive injury, a head injury and a contusion, the OVA clarified. (Kherson/Kakhovka news TG - channel is secured against sharing links)
* "Point Of Invincibility" is a dedicated building strengthened similar to a bomb shelter, a Ukrainian initiative to give safe harbour to residents when shelling is imminent. POIs have been developed in most Ukrainian cities.

 

[Mobbs]

Well ISIS have released GoPro footage of the attack for all the non-believers:

Spoiler: GRPAHIC NSFW

I've seen the full video including the horror mentioned in that text. Absolutely horrific. It's on Denys Davydov's channel in full for those who want to see, but I'd steer away from it tbh.
There's also a video of one of the apprehended suspects getting their ear cut off and threats to feed it to him, by the security forces who apprehended him.

 

[Mobbs]

Security forces were commended for the competency and promptness in dealing with the terrorist attack, as quoted here by BAZA TG :

The FSB officers were given the task by their leadership to take everyone involved in the terrorist attack alive. Several sources of the Base report this.

As a result of the operation, thanks to competent and prompt actions, the security forces managed to complete this task: all four terrorists who attacked people in Crocus were detained.

At the same time, intelligence officers were able to quickly identify the shooters’ accomplices. This helped to find out the terrorists' route in time.

In addition, according to the Base, FSB officers instructed operational services to pay attention to phones lost in Crocus City Hall. Thanks to this, it was soon possible to actually find the phone number of one of the terrorists in the hall. This discovery should help identify everyone involved in the crime.

And yet the response teams (despite being located quite close by to where the Crocus is located) were actually criminally slow in getting there (K1 TG) :

SOBR entered Crocus an hour and a half after the shooting began. The terrorists stayed in the building for a little more than 15 minutes

Journalists from Beware Media reconstructed the chronology of the terrorist attack at Crocus. According to their data, the terrorists arrived at the building at 19:55. Three minutes later, shooting begins in the Crocus lobby.

At 20:01, terrorists enter the auditorium and open fire on people, starting to set fire to chairs. At 20:08, some of the spectators run away from the building, breaking windows in an attempt to escape.

At 20:13, a white Renault with four terrorists leaves the parking lot.

12 minutes later a fire breaks out in the building.

At 20:26 TASS writes about the evacuation of people by emergency services, and firefighters are on their way to the scene. At 20:30, the publication’s journalist reports that the police and doctors are already at the scene, and ambulances are parked.

At 20:45, an operational headquarters was created on the spot, and the regional governor headed to the building.

At 21:07 TASS writes that riot police and special forces arrived at the building.

At 21:39 SOBR enters Crocus.

Gives a stink of decisions made to prioritise apprehension of the attackers over the preservation of civilian life, and potentially maximizing the death toll for purposes of reaction in the aftermath.

 

[dumb]

you're a very confusing man, putin. is it ok to kill civilians or not?

 

[Millky95]

 

[Visions]

Security forces were commended for the competency and promptness in dealing with the terrorist attack, as quoted here by BAZA TG :



And yet the response teams (despite being located quite close by to where the Crocus is located) were actually criminally slow in getting there (K1 TG) :


Gives a stink of decisions made to prioritise apprehension of the attackers over the preservation of civilian life, and potentially maximizing the death toll for purposes of reaction in the aftermath.

If theres a terrorist attack in Russia, you’re ****ed either way.

If the terrorists don’t kill you, the so called Russian special forces will.

Take the 2002 Moscow theatre attack. The Russian special forces ended up killing more civilians than the gunmen with their brilliant plan of first gassing them to death and then storming the building and shooting civilians at will.

Special forces my ass. They’re a bunch of cowboys.

 

[Visions]

There's also a video of one of the apprehended suspects getting their ear cut off and threats to feed it to him, by the security forces who apprehended him.

The security forces who cut the ear off were full blown Russian Nazis with the black sun insignia emblazoned on their chests.

But trolls here tell us its the Ukrainians with the Nazi problem.

 

[Mobbs]

If theres a terrorist attack in Russia, you’re ****ed either way.

If the terrorists don’t kill you, the so called Russian special forces will.

Take the 2002 Moscow theatre attack. The Russian special forces ended up killing more civilians than the gunmen with their brilliant plan of first gassing them to death and then storming the building and shooting civilians at will.

Special forces my ass. They’re a bunch of cowboys.

Nort-Ost was textbook Putin criminality.

 

[Visions]

Well ISIS have released GoPro footage of the attack for all the non-believers:

Spoiler: GRPAHIC NSFW

First off the fact that Russian forces acted so slow and let the gunmen get away despite their propaganda shows they weren’t prepared for the attack. Especially considering ISIS gunmen would normally fight to the death.

Secondly l doubt that the guys that so calmly and cold heartedly killed people at will were the same ones that were shown cowering in he videos being apprehended. They were scapegoats because the Russian police have no idea who they really are and have to pin it on someone to stop their own embarrassing stance. Even Tajikistan (where the alleged gunman are from) have come out and claimed it couldn’t be them as they were elsewhere at the time.

Finally if ISIS continue with more terrorist attacks on Russian territory, Putin has a huge problem on his hands. Which country are Russia going to attack to get rid of them?