What is the real state of the economy?

[Little Big John]

"We object to a state-enforced equality. Then they say that we are against equality"

You cut off half the quote. Opportunity vs outcome. Two very different things. Only a fool would believe in the latter.

I cut nothing. Just didn't emphasise what I didn't wish to.

Do you genuinely believe that outcomes have no bearing on future opportunities?

 

[MaddAdam]

Hahaha medusala "education won't improve outcomes" gold m8 keep them coming.

As if history teaches us increased education leads to increased everything.

 

[Mofra]

the link you posted demonstrates the demand is increasing

The value is decreasing though - and that's the problem.
Abbott & Co have tied their colours to the mast of yesterday's economy and are actively rewarding party backers by destablising any competitors to the fossil fuel industry - the same industries we were once regarded as world leaders in and could have provided valuable diversity in the domestic economy.
Labor started the decline in R&D (cuts to the CSIRO) and the Libs continue to cut. We're at virtual banana republic status and we want to dissuade investment outside of our two biggest 9and declining) industries

 

[MaddAdam]

The value is decreasing though - and that's the problem.
Abbott & Co have tied their colours to the mast of yesterday's economy and are actively rewarding party backers by destablising any competitors to the fossil fuel industry - the same industries we were once regarded as world leaders in and could have provided valuable diversity in the domestic economy.
Labor started the decline in R&D (cuts to the CSIRO) and the Libs continue to cut. We're at virtual banana republic status and we want to dissuade investment outside of our two biggest 9and declining) industries

Abbott and Hockey are economic illiterates.

 

[Gough]

Naomi Klein said that in Australia it's hard to know where the government ends, and the mining companies begin. It's hard to argue with that when somebody like Twiggy is writing welfare policy.

 

[Long Live HFC]

Abbott and Hockey are economic illiterates.

and yet he (tony) has an economics degree. baffling.

 

[MaddAdam]

and yet he (tony) has an economics degree. baffling.

He didn't exactly set Oxford on fire with the white heat of intellectual brilliance.

He is far too micro-ideological in his running of the economy.

 

[Mofra]

He didn't exactly set Oxford on fire with the white heat of intellectual brilliance.

He is far too micro-ideological in his running of the economy.

He obviously didn't develop any sort of coherent opinions or ideology in his time - a one-time backer of an ETS now proposing a policy that is less efficient and more expensive that will have little effect, anti-economic diversity, willing to destroy any type of competitive advantage Australia may have in the region, and now saying boo as Hockey plays the Koch-family hymn (we've got a revenue problem - I know, let's cut taxes for the wealthy who largely invest rather than spend additional income!).
Doesn't seem willing to learn from recent experience either - even Greenspan in his updated autobiography challenges neo-liberal ideology with respect to the GFC, formerly blaming a "miscalculation of risk" but now admitting there are serious structural issues with the international banking system.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

In his own Battlelines book he says that student politics was the main reason he got the Rhodes Scholarship: "As much, I'm sure, through my role in student politics as through academic or sporting prowess, I was chosen as a NSW Rhodes Scholar at the end of 1980."

Student politics is also the main reason he objects so strongly and repetitively against things he advocated for only a few years prior.

As I quoted here he himself doesn't like economics, and is considered innumerate by senior Liberals: "I have never been as excited about economics as some of my colleagues... I find economics is not for nothing known as the dismal science".

He's been groomed for politics from a young age from the likes of Santamaria. I think it's fair to say he wasn't focussed primarily on the economics degree at Uni. Commerce degrees are often only 12-14 hours a week. Economics is more theoretical. Given his political perspective I imagine he would've had all the right-wing arguments of the time on hand in order to get the marks he needed to pass. And it is an 'imprecise' science so his complaints about it aren't that whacky.

Dyson Heydon was on the selection panel to give him his Rhodes Scholarship based on his politics... I thought Unis were meant to be 'hot beds of Marxist insurrection'?

 

[MaddAdam]

In his own Battlelines book he says that student politics was the main reason he got the Rhodes Scholarship: "As much, I'm sure, through my role in student politics as through academic or sporting prowess, I was chosen as a NSW Rhodes Scholar at the end of 1980."

Student politics is also the main reason he objects so strongly and repetitively against things he advocated for only a few years prior.

As I quoted here he himself doesn't like economics, and is considered innumerate by senior Liberals: "I have never been as excited about economics as some of my colleagues... I find economics is not for nothing known as the dismal science".

He's been groomed for politics from a young age from the likes of Santamaria. I think it's fair to say he wasn't focussed on the economics degree at Uni, and no doubt got some help to get the 50% he needed to pass. Dyson Heydon was on the selection panel to give him his Rhodes Scholarship based on his politics... I thought Unis were meant to be 'hot beds of Marxist insurrection'?

He's fighting culture wars daily, but unfortunately the country is precariously poised and the economic decisions made now will affect us for decades to come. It is no time for his dated 70s uni politics s**t.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

He's fighting culture wars daily, but unfortunately the country is precariously poised and the economic decisions made now will affect us for decades to come. It is no time for his dated 70s uni politics s**t.

Be thankful, therefore, that he is doing so little. He has added to the debt considerably, but if Labor gets back in his legacy will primarily be made up of removing Rudd from Labor and a uniform change for Customs.

 

[MaddAdam]

Be thankful, therefore, that he is doing so little. He has added to the debt considerably, but if Labor gets back in his legacy will primarily be made up of removing Rudd from Labor and a uniform change for Customs.

I'm not entirely sure Labor is the answer. But they would struggle to be worse.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I'm not entirely sure Labor is the answer. But they would struggle to be worse.

My perspective has always been shaped by how full of BS the Liberals under Abbott have been. Labor's response to the GFC was good. Arguments can be made about what else they got up to, but on the big economic call, they got it right. They did a lot to cut back government spending too, which is why the Liberals abandoned promises like cutting 12,000 public servants once they got into govt. Cuts to the CSIRO and to single-mother welfare obviously aren't a Labor priority, but they did those things in order to help the bottom line.

It will be interesting to see what reforms Labor put forward in the election battle. Their proposals on neg gearing and Super concessions have been conservative, but surely the temptation would be there to get a decent surplus in their sights to help with the long-term Labor brand?

If Turnbull takes over maybe the Liberals will have more to offer (Morrison & Bishop I don't know enough about, due to the lack of transparency or reliance on spin). But so much of their party has been peddling lies it's hard to reward them with Govt for that, and it's hard to imagine them suddenly discovering the ability to generate decent policies, when for 6 years they have put forward bugger all good policies.

 

[MaddAdam]

My own view that things have to get a lot worse before the public will accept the gravity of the reforms that need to be made.

In a perfect world the electorate would be smart enough to reform ahead of the pain, but it just doesn't work like that.

As Keating said, always back self interest.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

My own view that things have to get a lot worse before the public will accept the gravity of the reforms that need to be made.

In a perfect world the electorate would be smart enough to reform ahead of the pain, but it just doesn't work like that.

As Keating said, always back self interest.

6 years of talk about debt and deficit might end up back-firing on the Libs: People might be more open to tax increases than usual.

Obviously the Libs would want that to be a GST increase, while Labor are probably debating internally about what the best approach is, but removing the Howard/Rudd income tax cuts could be an option seeing as they didn't bring in the supposed benefits people always claim income tax cuts will bring.

Hoping for the world economy to fix itself was Abbott's tactic and it's failed, so you'd hope Labor didn't go into an election with the same thinking, but the LNP have been so bad they may think it's the most electable approach. The problem is a lot of the calls for reform are from business lobbies who just happen to think 'reform' equals a shedload of things business always want (cheaper employees; less tax). If Labor increases the GST I don't think they will broaden it, so there's still more needed you'd think to lessen the debt projections, especially with things like Gonski still considered the best policy.

Ideally they would work out a way to make people and companies pay the tax they're morally meant to, but unless there's a drastic change in people's worries about 'big brother' type Govt surveillance, I don't know what the easy answer is to make that happen.

 

[MaddAdam]

Increasing GST is an incredibly retrograde step.

My own view is that the inevitable housing crash will give a decent government the mandate to reform stuff like negative gearing. Similarly people with SMSF losing hard will give the opportunity to reform super breaks.

The problem though is the Boomer (generational, not champion North midfielder/forward) bulge. Though as a recent piece I cbf finding suggested, the idea that the Boomers will trend right as they age may not hold.

That said, I return to Keating's maxim about always backing self interest.

Hard to see the Bomers voting to make their so-called hard worked for retirements less cushy for the good of the country.

 

[sproketman]

My own view that things have to get a lot worse before the public will accept the gravity of the reforms that need to be made.

What reforms specifically?

 

[Baldy Head]

We're on the verge of banana republic status given our over-reliance on coal and iron ore exports yet people still want to turn our economic troubles into and "anti-left" rant. I know who struggles with economics here and it isn't people wanting to invest progressively instead of regressively.

In what way are we over reliant on coal and iron ore?

Exactly what should we be doing instead?

Please explain how things like Interpretive Dance can be exported to the same dollar value as coal & iron ore?

 

[Gough]

What reforms specifically?

If you look at the government's current policies, and do the polar opposite. That would be a good starting place.

 

[Baldy Head]

The value is decreasing though - and that's the problem.
Abbott & Co have tied their colours to the mast of yesterday's economy and are actively rewarding party backers by destablising any competitors to the fossil fuel industry - the same industries we were once regarded as world leaders in and could have provided valuable diversity in the domestic economy.
Labor started the decline in R&D (cuts to the CSIRO) and the Libs continue to cut. We're at virtual banana republic status and we want to dissuade investment outside of our two biggest 9and declining) industries

Yesterday's economy???

Do you think we can export solar power?

Mining goes in cycles, just because we have come off the high and look likely to be going to a low point, doesn't make it yesterday's economy.

People said the same nonsense in the lead up to the Dot Com Crash and we all saw how that panned out.

 

[pazza]

Honestly I think the country is in major trouble.

In the real world, not on paper, it's bloody hard to get a job out there. Low interest rates are a sign the economy has hit the wall. Mining is down thanks to the issues with China.

 

[MaddAdam]

In what way are we over reliant on coal and iron ore?

Exactly what should we be doing instead?

Please explain how things like Interpretive Dance can be exported to the same dollar value as coal & iron ore?

Well, there's this thing called THE INTERNET right.

At one point, we were good at it: we invented wi-fi for example.

Have a look at Berlin to see how you can very quickly grow a huge industry employing hundreds of thousands by using this INTERNET thing.

 

[MaddAdam]

Yesterday's economy???

Do you think we can export solar power?

Mining goes in cycles, just because we have come off the high and look likely to be going to a low point, doesn't make it yesterday's economy.

People said the same nonsense in the lead up to the Dot Com Crash and we all saw how that panned out.

Indeed, the online economy is far huger than it ever was before the crash, the world's most valuable company is not a miner but a tech company.

 

[Lebbo73]

Honestly I think the country is in major trouble.

In the real world, not on paper, it's bloody hard to get a job out there. Low interest rates are a sign the economy has hit the wall. Mining is down thanks to the issues with China.

The main problem is that most of the world is in trouble. Money printing has failed. It has only made the inevitable crash that is coming worse.

 

[Baldy Head]

Indeed, the online economy is far huger than it ever was before the crash, the world's most valuable company is not a miner but a tech company.

Oh, so with Govt funding administered by the wonderful Labor Party, Australia will produce the new Apple or Google or Microsoft?

How old are you?