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- #51
Again you completely misunderstand. I'm asserting a philosophical position in relation to probabilities and the coaches' influence upon improving a club's chances. Coaches are very important absolutely, but the fact that a coach has in the past won a flag does not always necessarily assert that they would be the best person for a job to win future flags at a different club. There is always the possibility that they were to a degree lucky and/or that they wouldn't be able to recreate that success at a different club as well as a different untried candidate. My problem with STO's assertions was the certainty of "proven" coaches which is a logical fallacy as no coach is proven in their task of winning future premierships, unless you believe in dual-directional time travel.
I may have missed the mark a little on your other post, but not this one.
when you talk about possibilities of being lucky etc. then you are clutching at straws. certainly there are wrong styles and types for clubs and lists - but you have absolutely set out your stall on the fact the luck factor.
which I would want some evidence of before giving it any creedance.
proven is always better than unproven - but there are suitability issues too. Neither Blight or particularly Matthews has shown any penchant and/or ability to rebuild a list. they're finishers, not builders.
putting a finisher into a building scenario is not going to work, which is not the same as just saying that the former was lucky or not really very good.
any argument that suggests someone is definitively capable of "finishing" without having proven that is tenuous just as suggesting that someone who has crossed the line, lucked out and may not be able to do it again.
there is always faith involved with unproven coaches, and in some cases it works out well - but that is not an argument against someone who has done it, has achieved it, has experienced what is required.
the only certainly in STO's positions is the certainty that someone who has done something, has certainly proved they can, that innately in the right circumstances they have the ability to meet the challenge. there is no such certainty with someone who has not. that is not a logical fallacy as you fancifully claim.
put another way, if you put Craig and Matthews in the coaching pool at seasons end you can be damned sure that one of them would attract first attention. and no amount of vague and baseless supposition will change that.





Guess you'll just have to kick it every now and then.
. Don't think they'll progress very far though once they get there.
