Quigley's 2009 Mock (Warning: longer than ever)

[Quigley]

Okay as per usual my mock is very long. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

I will also give my usual disclaimer that I have not seen a huge amount of each of these guys but I have seen a few games of most of them and have watched and read as much as I can. In the games I do watch I try to pay attention, I make a heap of notes and generally think I have a reasonable eye. My opinion is going to be different to a lot of you on here and to the order that they are drafted in but I make no apologies for that. I have for the most part put guys where I rate them and to hell with everyone else (although admittedly I did get a bit lazy and went with group think a bit on some guys). Having heard how the Adelaide team rated the first round last year I have come to the conclusion that there is a big disparity between how players are rated even at a professional level and my own ratings are probably not as off the wall as some may believe.

Up front I acknowledge that I have borrowed a bit from Offsider, Snoop and FOJ1 and their mocks who I rate as the best mocks this year and from the player profiles on afldraftinfo.com.au (great work TBU keep up the good work). A big boo to Telstra. The AFL guys go to all the trouble to put together highlight packages of the draft prospects and your media player makes it virtually impossible to watch. Incompetence of the highest order but just the sort of thing we have come to expect from them.

I have thrown up a few guys earlyish in the draft and I probably do not expect them to go that high but I honestly rate them that high and think that if they are taken where projected in other mocks they will be huge steals. I have also thrown a few Queenslanders up at the end of the draft to get their names out there and provide a bit of info if they happen to be take at some stage. For the last third of the draft I have also preferenced guys who are not getting much of a mention on here and who I think are genuine chances. There are guys who I have left out who are also good chances but the guys not getting much publicity on here have gotten a mention with me where there is a toss up between the two guys.

I have put most effort into the top 50 guys so you will find a bit more insight into these guys. For the last 25 or so I have done my best but I don’t have access to a lot of vision on them and so it tends to be a fair bit of stuff that is already out there.

Overall I think this is a very good draft if you are after a midfielder in the top dozen or so picks. After that there is a pretty significant drop off and whilst you will get a steal or two there are going to be more busts than usual in the next 20 or so picks. From then it is the usual crap shoot with the talent being very even and it is going to suit teams who have seriously done their homework.

As mentioned there is some genuine midfield talent available this year with the guys in the top 10 being as good as any draft in recent times. Disposal skills might be the thing which marks them down a little as a group but apart from that they are very impressive. If you are picking later in the draft and need a HBFer there are likely to be several good options. That is probably the deepest position this year I think although there are not many first rounders amongst them.

Key positions are very weak with even the best talents available having huge question marks over them. This is not a draft where I would be comfortable coming in needing to pick a KP early. After the top few there are the usual group out there who will be pushing for selection but they are hugely hit and miss and for the most part have not shown much. As a group the key positions tested well (better than the mids actually imo) but almost without fail each individual had one test or measurement which would raise significant concerns for recruiters. There are a couple of mature agers who might get a look late for teams needing immediate help.

Rucks are the weakest I have seen. Usually I am prone to rating the ruck talent higher than the professionals and it will be interesting to see if I go the other way this year. There is only one ruck who I rated this year and that is Zac Smith who has already been wrapped up by the Gold Coast. The rest are a singularly unimpressive lot and there is not any I would be comfortable with my club taking in the top 25. This is a little harsh on Craig but under 195cm he is never going to be a number 1 ruck at AFL level.

I have tried to go with what I think the order is for live picks but is if I have gotten any of the order wrong I don’t care. I have also not used passes or included recycled players even if it is highly probably that a team will take them on the day. I have tried first and foremost to get a bit of info out there on potential new guys.

And so without further ado.

 

[Quigley]

1st Round

PICK 1 – MELBOURNE

It’s a foregone conclusion that Scully and Trengove will go 1 and 2 in this draft. Scully has been the top rated prospect all year and has only enhanced his reputation with his play this year. Trengove came in with more modest (but still good) credentials and just kept getting better and better the further the year went culminating in a dominant performance in the SANFL semi against senior company. Both are very worthy number 1 selections but for pure money reasons I am very confident they will go with Scully number 1. If you are a Victorian club you go with the Victorian boy as he is going to be worth more to you in the publicity stakes. You also don’t want to take the chance on the go home factor hitting (not saying it would but theoretically it could) and Trengove demanding a trade after you have invested a number 1 pick on him and made him the centre piece of your marketing.

Tom Scully (Dandenong Stingrays, VIC)
Height: 182cm, Weight: 74kg, DOB: 15/05/91


The best true in and under prospect to come onto the AFL scene in quite a few years. He is phenomenal in the ruck contest. He reads the ball off the ruckman’s hand beautifully, gets to the position well and has the quickest hands you will see on anyone. He is very clean below the knees and rarely ever fumbles once he gets his hands on the ball. In close he has great awareness of where his players are around him and shoots he shoots his handballs out exceptionally quickly to what is invariably the best option. The other thing is the way he moves through the contest. He does not have the evasiveness of someone like Melksham but it does have that ability like Judd to pick a straight line to the ball and get up to speed quicker than anyone else and either get to the ball or to make an option for the person who gets the ball. He just seems to be moving a step quicker than others in the contest. Apparently his attitude is first class as well and is someone who refuses to be outworked. He is hugely professional as an under 18 player in that he trains like a professional and is determined to get the most out of himself. He also does not drink and captained Vic Metro and the Stingrays this year and he is the kind of captain who when he sees something that needs to be done just goes and does it himself with a follow me kind of attitude. I don’t think he is a natural leader though more of just a lead by example style. He has great endurance and it was a shame he did not test at Camp as he could well have given the record a real shake. On the park he uses that endurance to continually get open and he is the very definition of a ball magnet both getting the ball in tight and working hard to get free in open play. He also works hard both ways and will throw himself into a contest and attack the ball handler. He is an effective tackler although he perhaps does not get as many as I would like. At the Champs he only managed 3.2 per game which was a little low considering the abilities he has to get to the man and the contest. Overall at the Champs he was second in disposals with 25.2 per game (he also averaged over 26 in the TAC). For someone his size he is a good contested mark and is very strong in the contest being able to hold good body position and absorb contact. All this despite the fact that he is still pretty slight and he has short arms and tiny tiny hands. Okay there is a hell of a lot to like what about the negatives? Well there has been quite a few questions about his kicking and rightly so. His style is pretty good off either foot but there are issues. Not only is the execution of his kicks a worry it is also that when he goes longer I do not think he shows great decision making ability. He kicks it to contests a LOT and unlike his work in close he often does not take the best option. He also kicks it the opposition a fair bit when he goes down field. He is also not a goal scoring option out of the midfield and that is the case even when playing up forward. At the Champs he only managed 3 goals despite at least one game playing significant time as a HFFer. In the TAC he also managed only one goal every 5 games. So all up he is a fantastic in and under prospect who still has a few holes in his game before he can be considered a great all around player.


PICK 2 – MELBOURNE

Melbourne more than anything else need some class and guys who are going to stand up when the pressure is on. I do like some of their youngsters but the talent levels drop away significantly in the bottom half of their 22. Scully and Trengove are both guys who will work for you all day and lead the team through the hard patches. They are just the kind of guys that Melbourne need. There are certainly other holes but two huge ones have been filled.

Jack Trengove (Sturt, SA)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 02/09/91
HFF/Mid

He is another extremely good prospect who will have Melbourne fans rightly salivating. He is a different type of player to Scully in that he is not the in and under prospect that Scully is but there are aspects of his game where he is clearly better than Scully. He is definitely a midfield prospect but he has the ability to go forward and he is dangerous up forward. He is good overhead for his size and has strong hands in the contest. He is very balanced in contested situations and holds his feet very well. In the ruck contest he does not have the ball reading, close vision or exceptionally quick hands that Scully does but he is up there with most others in this draft. In tight he does not tend to have that extra second that the top guys do and is often rushed and will often just put the ball to his boot rather than picking out a target. At AFL level I think he will win plenty of his own ball but I don’t see him ever being considered one of the best in and unders in the competition. He could well be considered one of the best all around midfielders though. He will play inside and out and will go forward and kick goals which is very handy from a midfielder. He works very hard on the field and is another who is blessed with great natural athleticism. He was playing in the SANFL final and so missed Camp but in the SA State Screening he ran over 15 in the beep and under 3 in the 20m. This is a guy who looks like a natural, smart footballer and when you combine that with top shelf athleticism you have an asset on your hands. He captained the surprising SA this year and has good leadership skills. He is another star player who works both ways and do the little things that help his team to win and his hard at it style will also be an asset to Melbourne. At the Champs he managed a very respectable 22.8 disposals per game and kicked 5 goals and 10 goal assists in his 5 games. The other thing with Trengove is that he continued to improve as the season went on playing in senior company in the SANFL culminating in a dominating 30 possession and goal saving mark game in the semi. He has shown he is more than capable of playing against men and will be right to go in round one next year. There have been a lot of questions about his kicking similar to those about Scully and again there is some basis for concern. To me it looks like he has been working very hard on his kicking to try and correct his style and whilst he is usually pretty good occasionally he reverts and he tends to pull the ball up a little before dropping it and when he does his accuracy drops away. His option taking seems good however and when he gets things right he weights his passes very well. I think as the new kicking style becomes more engrained his kicking overall will improve with it.


PICK 3 – RICHMOND

Richmond have had a big clean out of experienced players and have needs all over the ground. To put it simply if Richmond are not bringing up the rear of the field next year I am going to be shocked. They could use help in the forward half but with Butcher dropping away that pretty much leaves them with the next best midfielder which I am agreeing with most on here is Martin. Martin is a better user of the ball than both Scully and Trengove but does not win the same amount of ball and does not seem to have the drive of the other two. That being said he is a big talent and if Cotchin can get on the park they will have some very skilled additions to the midfield next year.

Dustin Martin (Bendigo Pioneers, VIC)
Height: 187cm, Weight: 86kg, DOB: 26/06/91

Unlike a lot of the top midfield prospects available this year Martin is a very good kick. He has good but not great penetration (will kick goals from 50) but also weights his kicks very well when kicking for accuracy. He is a right footer but kicks well off either foot. His vision and game sense are extremely good and he reads the game a step or two ahead of those around him. Quite simply he is a very smart footballer who takes the good options and has the skills to be an elite player at the next level. One major question is whether he can step up athletically to the next level. I did have some question marks about his athleticism and was very surprised how well he tested at Camp. His 2.89 was much quicker than I expected and he was the second quickest there over 5 metres. His endurance is solid but not any more than that and is something which he is going to need to work on. His agility and jumping are also just in the average category so neither a strength nor a weakness there. Martin is predominantly and inside mid as junior level but I would be surprised if he didn’t start on a flank at AFL level. He is good overhead and his reading of the play would be an asset. Longer term I think he might be an inside out player. Whilst he has pretty clean hands I do not think he has the really quick hands that you see of the top inside mids and his work in the phone box is not to the level of Scully or Trengove. That being said I think he is serviceable in that role and around the ground he should excel as an inside out player. He was an All Australian selection for Vic Country and justly deserved the accolade being one of the best players at this Champs. In the TAC he continued on the good form as a ball magnet. He will throw his body into the contest and will come out the other side with the ball. Not a big tackler and tends to get taggers (although are not called that) most weeks so the defensive aspects of his game have not been on show. This is something which will need to be worked on at the next level.


PICK 4 – FREMANTLE

Freo drafted exceptionally well last year but most of their acquisitions were outside smalls or at least played that way (ie Suban). Ideally this year they would get a couple of key positions and some in and under help. I know there midfield was hit hard by injury but even still they have very few players who can win their own ball. They really need a physical presence under the packs to win the ball and free up their outside runners. Everyone has the Dockers taking Morabito here but I don’t think he suits their needs at all well (then again neither did Hill really). He is big but does not win nearly enough of the ball for their needs imo. I know that Freo didn’t go with the guy who fitted their needs the most last year but they really need a genuine hard at it in and under who is going to run through walls to get to the ball and the best of those this year is:

Ben Cunnington (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 30/06/91


Reminds me a lot of Jack Grimes as a junior. Very hard at it inside mid who just goes hard at it all the time and wins more than his fair share. He also spreads well and gets to space and gives his teammates options. He can move forward very competently, is good overhead, has excellent strength in the contest and is a pretty reasonable shot at goal. His hands are very quick and he works well in the telephone box. His pace seems adequate as does his endurance although both will be worked on significantly once he gets in an AFL environment. He did not test at Camp so I am going with the old eyeball test on those observations. Body wise he has good height for a midfielder and he is solid enough to step in and play next year. Down the track he should develop into a very powerfully built player. He has good strength for a midfielder and is a power athlete who holds his feet well in the contest. The big weakness as I see it is his disposal which, also like Grimes, I consider to be below average. He tends to loop both his kicks and his hand passes and he too often sets his receiver up to be crunched. Similarly I also am not sure of his decision making and vision as he takes some strange options at times and again too often passes the ball to players who are in a worse position than himself. He seems to have a great attitude and has the kind of warrior mentality that everyone loves to have in their side. He is not going to die wondering and you know he is someone who will go the extra yard. He seems to be a team first guy who will do the little things that help teams win. To put it simply he is going to make whatever team he is in better on attitude if nothing else and there is plenty of other things there to like. He played very well for Vic Country at the Championships making the All Australian and continued it on with some great games for Geelong in the TAC post Champs.


PICK 5 – NORTH MELBOURNE

North don’t have a bad bunch of young talent coming through and could surprise a few next year if they can keep on the park. A true full forward would be helpful but they have a few guys who could potentially fill that spot already there. Their biggest need I think is to replace some of the ball winning ability in the middle they have lost. I am going with a guy I think could be absolutely fantastic in combination with Zeibell and is the first real surprise of my draft. Melksham did not have a great year all up but finished hugely impressively and is just a great combination talent that I could not ignore if I was picking here. He is also a Victorian boy which can only help. With he and Zeibell in the middle suddenly there is a lot more skill and precision in the middle than is the reputation for the shinboners.

Jake Melksham (Calder Cannons, VIC)
Height: 182cm, Weight: 69kg, DOB: 29/8/91

At his best this kid looks like a star in the making and his ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft. When on song he looks all class looking like a combination of Nick Dal Santo and Lenny Hayes. He has been a little inconsistent this year and did not have a great Champs but its hard to imagine a player finishing the year more impressively and I am going to focus on where he looks like he is at now. I am a definite fan. He is a smart, athletic footballer, with great vision and a very nice kick. He probably is going to be an outside in style midfielder capable of winning his own ball but who does his best work when he receives the ball and has that little bit of extra time to make his disposals count. When he gets the ball he is virtually impossible to pen in as not only does he have great elusiveness and very nice speed, but he also knows the seams and can exploit them. He has a great little shimmy and baulk and holds the ball well in both hands making it hard to know what he is going to do. He will take the time he needs and back himself to stay out of trouble and that extra little bit of time allows him to balance, assess the options and take the right one. In the open he glides along and has that ability to ramp it up a gear and put the hammer down when needed. He has reasonable length on his kicking (I have seen him easily get the distance from 50) but seems to play more of a medium to short kicking game. He can kick well off either foot and is a very efficient user of the ball who almost always delivers a pass where it is going to be to the best advantage of his teammates. When needed he can punch in a nice low kick but tends to weight passes by feel a bit more at the moment. His kicking is a major strength and he is up there with the very best in this draft as far as use of the ball goes. By hand he is also very good and can go with either hand and on his dominant he can rip out a 20m handball on occasions which is uncommon for kids of this age. He doesn’t mind having a fly for a mark but he is probably only average in this regard. In tight his hands are okay but again he does not have the kind of super quick hands that I like to see from in and under prospects. That said he wins his fair share in tight, commits his body to contests and does not look out of place by any means. He is one cool, calm and collected guy on ball. Another thing I love is the 1%ers that he does. If you see one of his teammates break from a contest and look it will be him putting on the block. He shepherds, blocks, smothers and all of those other little things which coaches love and helps team win more than most supporters realise. When he plays through the middle he gut runs with the best and one minute he will be contesting a boundary throw in the forward pocket and the next he will be receive in the back pocket. At the moment though his recovery time is pretty extended and he will have significant breaks on the bench or resting up forward or down back. He tested well for endurance at camp so teams are not going to be worried in this regard (14.38 in the beep). In fact he tested exceptionally well all around also showing very good speed and excellent agility. He was taller than advertised and had put on a little weight although he needs to put on significantly more to stand up to the AFL week in week out. Probably the only thing that was a little below par was the size of his hands but I am sure teams will not be overly concerned there. Teams might be a little concerned that he did not dominate at the Champs but he still managed a very respectable 18.2 possessions a game and performed reasonably well for Vic Metro.


PICK 6 – SYDNEY

Sydney have some ball winners but really need some good ball users. Skill is in short supply in the younger crop of Sydney midfielders and so it would not surprise me at all if they overlooked the likes of Cunnington and Lucas if available to take someone like Tapscott or Rohan who bring with them a bit of X factor that is missing currently. As it is I have Morabito falling to them and so “the next Adam Goodes” gets to learn from the current Adam Goodes. Morabito is a definite handful and I think would do well running around on the smaller SCG.

Anthony Morabito (Peel Thunder, WA)
Height: 190cm, Weight: 90kg, DOB: 29/10/91

Very highly regarded player who is a great physical prospect for a midfielder. He is a smidge under 191 and looks taller but moves very much like a mid 10cm shorter. He has very nice pace and is very nice mover being very balanced both with the ball and without. He has excellent strength for a midfielder and uses it well in the contest. He has massive hands (by far the largest at camp at 26.2cm) and the ball sticks in the mitts whether above his head or on the ground. There are very few mids who are likely to outmark him. He has been pegged as an outside mid and whilst I think that is where he will end up he is very much a modern outside mid capable of winning his own ball. At the Champs he won a very respectable 7.6 contested possessions and 3.2 clearances per game. Whilst the numbers are okay his hands are not what you want from your inside mids and his handballing from contested situations is similarly below what you would like from an in and under. As an outside player he gets out and runs very well and is a very physical presence with the ball in his hand. My major issue with him as a highly ranked outside mid prospect is quite frankly he does not get enough of the ball. At the Champs he averaged 16.4 possessions a game despite playing mostly through the middle. If this is all he could get in junior company will he be able to get more of it at AFL level? He has a very effective fend at U18 level which I hope he manages to keep in the AFL but I am sure he will get drilled a few times next year when he tries it. When he has time he has a very nice kicking style and has very good penetration. When he is rushed though he misses his fair share of targets. He will kick you some goals as a midfielder but is not the most accurate shot going around either (at the Champs he kicked 4 goals and 6 behinds and these are also the types of numbers he put up in the WAFL). With his size you would also expect him to be a better tackler than he is. He just does not bring his physical style to this aspect of his game and tends to go with his arms too much and gets brushed off entirely too easily. He seems keen to get in there but his tackling technique is very ordinary. He reads play well generally and gets himself into good positions. His option taking with ball in hand is probably not to the same standard but he is not bad by any stretch but he doesn’t always put the ball in the place that best suits his team mates or choose the right option. He very rightly made the AA team last year and has been playing seniors all year. In the WAFL he won the rising star award. Expect him to play early next year with the team who picks him as he already has sufficient bulk to play at AFL level. He did not test at camp due to quad issues. Not sure how serious this is (expect not very) but quads are very tricky and teams could be a little leery of it and it might affect the amount of work he can do this offseason.


PICK 7 – WEST COAST

West Coast has a plethora of guys who can win a mass of their own ball but once they do they turn it over time and again. Blue collar is often used to describe those types of players. Here I am thinking of the likes of Masten, Priddis, Swift and the newly acquired Dalzeill. Even Kerr was a clanger king this year. So if they went with a lower possession guy who uses it very well it would not surprise me (yes Jetta who is in the mix here apparently). The other major need for them I think it up forward where they need a tall who can kick some goals. I know a lot of West Coast supporters are still hoping that Brown might stand up but I think he will settle in down back very nicely and not venture up forward again. Given the number of picks that have gone into the midfield lately I think West Coast might go with a forward here and although Butcher might be the pick of many I am going with Griffiths who I think is easily the most talented forward available this year. If he can get his body right he is a massive guy who can kick goals very a lot of years to come. His body is the only thing stopping him being a top 5 pick this year and if a team is comfortable with the prognosis he will go higher than many expect.

Benjamin Griffiths (Eastern Ranges, VIC)
Height: 198cm, Weight: 97kg, DOB: 17/09/91

For me he has the most talent of any key position in the draft. The big problem for him so far is that he seems to be made from tissue paper and is always injured. Notwithstanding that I still take him at the ahead of any other key position because I think he is the only one I can see being a dominant 75 goal per year full forward. Teams that have taken the risk on injured top talent in the last few years have been well rewarded and I see that continuing for whoever ends up with Griffiths. I will be betting there are a few teams picking in the teens that are praying he gets through to them. Lets start first with size and this guy is massive man already. At 198.5cm tall and already 97kgs he is going to worry virtually any fullback in the competition. When you combine that with very strong hands and pretty good athleticism he will be giving them nightmares. This is not a failed ruckman or ruckman wanna-be forward, this is a legitimate forward who has the height of a ruckman. He played at both full forward and half forward during the champs and although he showed he can move nicely and provide a marking target as a half forward I do not think there is any doubt that his best position is at full forward. He did not test at camp so I am a little in the dark on his actual speed but from the naked eye he seems pretty good without being great and I would expect him to be between 3 and 3.1 over the 20. He may struggle a little for separation at AFL level but he has enough pace to cause issues. On top of his height he has good jumping abilities and can get up for the ball both off one leg and off two. In fact his jump and mark from a stationary or contested pack situation is a feature of his game. At half forward he tends to play a little high and this takes him out of being a goal threat and, as he is primarily a goal scoring player, he needs to consider this. Also when he is playing at full forward I notice that he tends to lead to the pockets a little too much. He does seem comfortable slotting them from there but I believe he goes there as his first option too often. As mentioned he does kick them pretty comfortably from the pockets and unlike players like Butcher he is a very good kick for goal. He is a thumping kick with a range out to at least 55 and he is a dead eye dick to boot. He has good technique, very big hands, controls the drop well and really follows through nicely. Around the ground he is a reasonable but not great worker and does chase back defensively a bit. He is not a big tackler but does finish them nicely when he gets his hands on the ball carrier. When he gets the ball outside his range he takes good options and handballs well and is a nice field kick with good penetration and weighting on his passes. He does not get a huge amount of possessions outside 50 though and I think his endurance levels are not what they could be. This is a likely by-product of the amount of time he has spent on the sidelines with injury. Below the knees he has very nice clean hands for a big man. I watched his game against NSW at the Champs live and his first half was as dominant a performance as you will see from a full forward at that level. He was unstoppable and with the package he has I do not see any reason why he could not do the same at AFL level. He has the potential to be the next Plugger and someone will take a punt on him and a lot earlier than most expect. I would have no trouble taking him between 5 and 10 if I needed a forward.


PICK 8 – PORT ADELAIDE

Port have talent but need an attitude adjustment more than anything else. That is a bit much to expect from first year players so I guess I will have to go with other team needs. Quite simply their biggest needs are a key position forward and players who can win their own ball. It just so happens that there are two good prospects available in the next two picks who fit their needs down to the ground. First up I have them taking Butcher who was rated as a top 3 prospect for much of the year. He could do very nicely at Port where he will be given every opportunity to succeed and (if they ever get their act together) would have the benefit of a very talented midfield.

John Butcher (Gippsland Power, VIC)
Height: 197cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 03/07/91

Has been the big faller in the second half of the year but for me he was always a bit overrated and is now returning to his true level. Okay firstly the good. Butcher is seriously tall for a forward and he plays tall making him a very difficult guy for defenders to cover. He loves to play in front and has an excellent pair of hands overhead. He has big hands, jumps well and times his jumps well to take the ball at the top of his jump. His marking ability is his main weapon. He is exceptionally quick off the mark and I mean quick for anyone not just a tall. He creates separation within a couple of steps and has enough pace to maintain the separation. He ran a 2.99 in the sprint which was impressive on the day. Below the knees he is also good for such a tall guy. On the other side of the coin his kicking for goal is not very good. He seems to have altered his drop this year and whilst it looks better I think it has affected his kicking accuracy. Also he has a bit of a funny hitch in his last step which seems to move him sideways and this also affects his accuracy. His body is several years away from holding his own at AFL level and it is worth noting that he was regularly outmuscled at U18 level. He is moved too easily around by defenders and does not have great balance. He will ruck up forward and is not too bad in this role and directs his taps pretty well. Defensively he goes through the motions without really committing himself to making a difference. He needs to work harder. And that is probably a bit of moral of his game all around – he needs to work harder. There are a few quiet rumours around about attitude issues which also will not help him get drafted at the pointy end. He has been very inconsistent this year and has not put two good games together all year. Teams seem to have worked him out and he has not worked out how to break free. His head goes down a bit and again he just does not work hard enough when things are not going his way – think Richo or Fev. Put him on the end of a dominant midfield and I think you might have a very good player. Put on the end of a midfield whose service is not great and I am not sure you will get much out of him.


PICK 9 – PORT ADELAIDE

Port’s biggest need after a key position forward is an in and under. Melksham might be a chance here on the day but if he and Cunnington are gone then you have to go with best available and Lucas I think is that. Lucas is an outside player but he is fairly physical and can win his own ball when needed it is just not his strength. Small forward is probably a bit of a strength at Port but Lucas can play a bit more up the field and his defensive skills are definitely needed. If Port get Butcher and Lucas they will feel very happy with themselves as both were rated top 5 picks by many immediately after the Championships.

Kane Lucas (East Fremantle, WA)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 26/06/91

Lucas is just one of those guys who makes things look effortless on the field. He never seems rushed and seems to have that extra half second that others don’t. His main problem is the inconsistency with his kicking. Some days he looks okay but at others he has trouble hitting the side of a barn. I think it comes down to his ball drop which seems variable. Sometimes it looks very good and you think there is nothing wrong but at others it is all over the shop. He seems to have good vision and is a very smart footballer so if he can sort out his kicking issues he will be a very good player. His kicking is not terrible merely middle of the road and you expect more of someone as highly rated as he is. Another of his big weapons is his strength. He is very strong in the contest and he outmuscles virtually all of those he matched up on at junior level. He will find that different when he hits the AFL but he has a frame that looks like it will fill out and make him a very powerful athlete. Overhead he is good for his size and he has sticky hands. His kicking at goal is not as certain as you would like. Defensively he is solid but it is certainly not a strength of his. On the park he looks reasonably athletic but does not stand out in this regard. Given how well he tested at Camp he needs to work on bringing this into his game. He was in the top group in all the jumps and speed (2.93) tests as well as the 3km. He lead the way in the agility test being the only guy this year to go under the 8 sec barrier. So it is safe to assume he is gifted all around athletically but he just needs to work out how to use that on the park a little more effectively. He is another one with very small hands for what that is worth. He played against men this year and did well and he should play next year and play well. He will play next year as a half forward flanker but he should move into the midfield in due course. He is very clean below the knees and is very much a one touch player. He was a central part of WA’s Champs winning team and was justifiably an All Australian.


PICK 10 - ESSENDON

Essendon for mine still lack a bit of quality all over the ground and the departure of Lloyd and Lovett are not going to help things. There is quite a few key position prospects on the list but really only Pears and Hurley have stood up but I am sure that the Dons will like the chances of a couple of Gumbleton, Neagle, Hooker, Daniher or Still standing up for them. There is talent there but also a lot of question marks. Unless Butcher falls to them here I think they will go with a midfielder, preferably one who can win his own ball. Bastinac I think is very underrated on BF and I think will be a very good player for whoever takes him. He is a quality user of the ball and this is something that Essendon do need. It is very possible that the Bombers might try to replace like for like and take a quick player with X factor and Rohan and Jetta are big possibilities. Bastinac has the ability to play inside and out and that gives him the edge for me.

Ryan Bastinac (Dandenong Stingrays, VIC)
Height: 183cm, Weight: 74kg, DOB: 22/06/91

I really like Bastinac but I am going to go with the negatives first. Body strength and pace off the mark are the two biggest things he needs to work on I think. He really lacks explosiveness in his first 3 or 4 steps and I am talking the kind of thing you expect from a ruckman rather than from your midfielders. Once he is up and going he has pretty reasonable pace and he is definitely not slow. Therefore I think with some fairly intensive work he could get his explosiveness up a fair bit. He also needs to spend a lot of time in the gym. He is pretty lanky at the moment and has below average body strength. He gets bumped off the ball and goes to ground in the contest too easily. He also has a tendency to fumble when body pressure goes on. Despite that I see him as an inside player in the AFL. One talent that sets him apart from most other prospects is his innate knowledge of where his players are around him. He has very quick hands and sometimes you would swear there was no way he could know his teammate was there before he shot the handball off too him. He is also smart and does little things regularly which would not occur to most players e.g. like tap ons when he would be tackled if he took the ball. At the moment he does tend to seagull contests a lot. That is, he tends to hang around the outside of the pack and once the chip gets free he swoops in quickly and grabs it. He is not an overly physical player and doesn’t charge each pack but he does read the ball off hands very well and works very well in tight being elusive and not being rushed to get rid of the ball. He has very big hands for a midfielder and controls the ball well when he gets his hands on it although as mentioned he can fumble when physical pressure goes on. He plays inside and out and has fantastic endurance (15.08 in the beep test and 10.03 in the 3km at camp). He will outrun most players who match up on him and he will work both ends and will rack up possessions. He has played all over the park this year and although he picked up 18 TAC goals this year I don’t see him as a forward option. He does not have the pace to get separation and he is prone to missing his shots at goal (1 goal 4 behinds at the Champs). Speaking of the Champs he averaged 19.8 disposals for Vic Country quietly going about business accumulating possessions (he averaged 22 possessions a game in the TAC). Notwithstanding all of this the thing which will really help him get drafted possibly in the first round is his kicking. He has a nice relaxed kicking style, has excellent penetration on his kicking and will hit targets. When he gets into an AFL environment he is going to be drilling frozen rope over 40-50 metres into his forwards. Good kicking is becoming more and more important and with his range he is going to be attractive. He is able to get it behind defences which helps teams a lot structure wise. He also has pretty good range on his handballs and might be one of the better exponents of the skill in the draft. Also unlike most he can handball off either hand which you don’t see much. He is a real chance to become an elite in and under in my opinion.


PICK 11 – MELBOURNE

Melbourne seemed locked in with the two top rated midfielders in the draft at one and two and indications are that they will go tall here. There is some talent at both ends in the tall dept but there is no question that more is required. They could also use some help moving the ball from defence with the departure of Whelan and Wheatley especially if Grimes and Morton are moved into the midfield more. Accordingly if I was Melbourne I would be lining up on Talia who is easily the best KPD next year. What’s more he is a very nice mover and is an asset going the other way. Getting the best two midfielders and the best key position defender from this draft is a pretty decent result for the Demons. I have heard they would desperately love Butcher to fall to them but I can’t see it myself. Black and Griffiths are also chances here as is them taking a faller.

Daniel Talia (Calder Cannons, VIC)
Height: 194cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 02/10/91

Easily the stand out key position defender this year Talia should be a safe first rounder who could go as high as 6 but more likely around the 8 to 12 mark. Where he excels and what will make him a valuable commodity at AFL level is his ability to read the play. Time and again he puts himself in the right position going both ways. He cuts off incoming balls with seeming ease and just positions himself better than his opposition. I think he will be an ideal third tall defender playing a bit lose like a Maxwell or Harley. He very clean below the knees for a big guy, so much so that he played significant time on ball for Vic Metro at the champs including at centre bounces. I found this a bit odd at the Champs and wondered what the coaches were trying to achieve as although his clearance skills are pretty good for a key position guy they are below a lot of the genuine mids he was keeping out of there. Overhead he is solid rather than spectacular and he is not a big contested mark taker. He gets his fair share of marks but most of these tend to be courtesy of his superior reading of the play or getting open going the other way. He is a good punch however and makes good decisions about when to mark it and when to punch it away. He tends to have a pretty deliberate kicking style which could look a little clunky but it doesn’t and I think this is because he seems so well balanced over the ball. He does not have super range on his kicks but it is adequate and he generally is a pretty accurate kick. His handballing needs some work and this takes on greater significance when you consider that he is of a handball first type of player. His handballs tend to float too much and does not get much distance on them. I see a lot of preseason work on this skill. At the Champs he averaged 18.6 disposals, 4.6 marks and 3.6 tackles and his good form was rewarded with a well justified All Australian selection. He measured in well at Camp with good height, weight and skin folds. He did not test however with a hamstring issue so he is another that I have to go with the old eye test. I think he has solid but not great pace and he often seems to be going up and down on the one spot with the short stride that he has for a tall player. He is a pretty agile guy for his height and his endurance is pretty good I think. He has a nice build and I think will develop into a powerful presence at the back and could well develop into a great run off CHB.


PICK 12 – CARLTON

Everyone has Carlton going with a KPF here and that is certainly on the cards with Black and Griffiths possibilities. Personally I do not rate Black as highly as a lot of people and think with the way the cards have fallen the chance to add that X factor to their current team is too hard to ignore. Having another player who can run the lines, deliver well into the fifty and score goals themselves is something any team would want and Carlton more so than most. Accordingly I could easily see them going for Rohan or Jetta if available. I have gone with Rohan largely because he is the local boy.

Gary Rohan (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 07/06/91
Forward/Mid

Has come from nowhere at the beginning of the year to be a virtual certain top 10 pick (notwithstanding that I have him at 12). He has that combination of great speed, line breaking style and penetrating kicking that makes him a very attractive prospect to AFL teams. He has the X factor that teams look for. His speed gets a lot of comment and timed at 2.93 it is certainly good but there are going to be plenty in the AFL who are quicker. Looking at him with the naked eye it seems to take him a few strides to get up to speed but once he gets there his top speed is impressive. He uses his speed well offensively to get separation and to break the lines but he does not use it defensively as much as I would like. When he gets into an AFL environment he will be expected to chase more than he currently does. At the moment he does have a few chases each match but he is not consistent and he does not effect many tackles. He is a spectacular player both with his pace and with his liking for going for the speccie. He can get up there and once up there he takes a few. His hands are probably not top shelf but are above average. He has good penetration on his kicking and will slot them from 50. Around the ground he seems to have reasonable vision and although his kicks are not lasers by any stretch they are not rainbows either. He weights his passes well and is usually an efficient user of the ball. He lead the Camp in the new kicking test which surprised many (me included) because he does have a tendency to miss a few targets during games. These tend to be kicks when at full pace and he does not take that steadying stride to balance himself before he kicks. He looks to start his career as a HFFer who will float up onto the wing as an outside mid. His kicking for goal is not a strength and for the amount of chances he gets he should kick more. At the Champs he managed 4 goals 7 behinds. He has a tallish lanky build and its unlikely that he will ever be particularly huge. Word is that the kid has a very good attitude and is not afraid of hard work which again is something teams love to see. He does have one huge problem though that its going to be difficult for him to overcome – he is a bloodnut. Having a redhead brother and sister I can tell you they are always trouble. He reminds some people of Bleese who was drafted by Melb last year and like Bleese one problem he has is that he simply does not get much of the ball. He makes his possessions count but if he cannot find it at junior level how is he going to go in the AFL. This is the main reason why I think he might go lower than many on here expect much like Bleese did last year. In addition to good speed tests at Camp, Rohan had good jumping results, reasonable agility and below average 3km times. He did not do the beep test for some reason and is another with very small hands.



PICK 13 – ADELAIDE

Adelaide have a pretty well balanced squad and there are not any glaring needs. Although they have quite a good crop of youngsters coming through you have to say that they still rely on their old stagers a fair bit and with only about a year left in Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards a quality small / medium would not go astray. I had been considering passing on Tapscott with this pick just because he was an SA guy but at the end of the day I think he suits the Adelaide needs very well. With Dangerfield likely to move into the midfield he could well slot in up forward or alternatively he could play behind the ball and really make use of his kicking skills. His kicking is a weapon that I am sure Craig would make good use of. That being said it would not surprise me if Tapscott slipped down the order a bit. The other guy I think suits Adelaide down to the ground is Sheppard who I think is a big chance here.

Luke Tapscott (North Adelaide, SA)
Height: 180cm, Weight: 86kg, DOB: 28/06/91

Tapscott is going to benefit a lot from the success Rich had this year. Like Rich Tapscott is a solid guy who has a cannon of a leg. He can kick it 60 metres and makes 40 metre passes look like effortless chips. Unlike Rich though he is not a ready made midfielder but rather a HFF who can do stints in the middle. Note though that his North Adelaide coach described him as an inside mid who can score goals. Another point of differentiation from Rich is that he does not have the fantastic vision that Rich has that allows him to take the best option whether long or short. Tapscott invariably looks long. The better comparison which is also often mentioned is probably Shannon Hurn and like Hurn he could well develop into a player who year in year out is expected to move into the midfield but never does. That is probably a worst case scenario though and he has the potential to be a good midfielder I think and one whose length of kick gives his teams a weapon allowing them to get behind modern defences. He is a very solid 18 year old but one who I think has too much of a body builder physique rather than a footballers. That is he has obviously worked hard on this arms and chest in order to impress the chicks. At the moment he seems a bit top heavy and in need of building up his lower half for stability and injury prevention purposes. Despite being a little top heavy he does manage to keep his feet very well and has good balance in the contest. Playing up forward he is dangerous in that he has the smarts to get himself free and is a big body who is difficult to contain for someone his own size. That said though he might struggle against AFL footballers initially as he is not going to be able to use his strength and he is not a particularly strong mark overhead. He gets his hands to a lot of marks but not all that many of them tend to stick in the marking contest. In the middle he reads the ball off hands reasonably well and he is fairly clean below the knees. He had hamstring issues and didn’t test at Camp but on the ground he seems to have reasonable pace and gets to space well. I do think he needs to work on his endurance quite a bit though if he is going to move to the midfield at AFL level. He played 5 games in the SANFL this year and acquitted himself well from all reports. Stepping up to play against men next year is not going to be an issue and depending on which team selects him he is probably a reasonable chance to play earlish in the year.


PICK 14 – SYDNEY

Sydney really do need to start restocking their key positions but they do seem to consistently take best available in the first round. For me that player is Andrew Moore who I think could end up being a great replacement for Micky O. He and Vez up forward would make a dynamic tandem who would be difficult to match up on. Sydney have did exceptionally well in trade week and Kennedy and McGlyn should strengthen the midfield, Seaby and Mumford will surprise many in the ruck and Bradshaw will exceed the production they were getting from Hall. They desparately need some key defence help but unless Talia falls to here I do not see anyone worth the pick. Do not rule Sheppard out here either although Sydney do not tend to go with many WA youngsters.

Andrew Moore (Eastern Ranges, VIC)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 81kg, DOB: 30/05/91

Has been very much a utility to this stage of his career capable of playing all over the ground and on draft day this could be held against him as he has not really established himself as a first rate prospect in any particular position. For me though I think he has shown enough as a HFFer to get him selected pretty early. At the Champs he played a variety of positions but mostly up forward and whilst he looked pretty good he did not get a lot of the ball. He averaged only 13 possessions to go along with 5 marks and 2.7 tackles per game. He did managed to kick a respectable 7 goals 3 behinds over his 5 games. He has nice height for a running player and as you might expect he moves very nicely. He has a long body and has a physique very similar to Tom Collier. He will develop into a pretty powerful small medium who can break tackles and is very difficult to contain overhead. His hands overhead are okay but not fantastic (they are serviceable) but it is his leap that makes him an extremely hard match up for someone of his size. He recorded the highest leaps off both his left foot and right foot at Camp. He virtually has to be picked up by the third tall defender if he sets up as a marking target. He is very quick off the mark and recorded a good 20m time at Camp. His 8.17 in the agility test was also in the top few and his beep test was above average. Interestingly his repeat sprint test was relatively poor which could indicate he does not have a high top speed over a longer distance. Alternatively it might be that he was not in great condition and his poor skin folds may back up this proposition a bit. The thing which might count against him a bit is his kicking. He has an unusual style and a high ball drop which causes a bit of variability in his kicking accuracy. He is prone to scrubbing a kick once or twice a game but mostly he finds his targets and usually weights his passes pretty well. He does not have great penetration and will struggle with distance from 45m out. He is a right footer but is reasonable off his left although he does not use his left too much. Out of the field he will often direct traffic for his team and has a lot of confidence in himself. With the ball on the ground he has reasonable hands but I am not sure we will ever see him as a true midfielder. On a flank at AFL level you would like to see him up his workrate a bit and get free more and rack up possessions. I like him though as a prospect and is a guy who like Rohan and Jetta has that bit of X factor about him and in all probability he will be available 6 or 7 spots below those guys in this draft.


PICK 15 – WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs window is now and expect them to take a player who can contribute right away. They still need key positions but anyone they here is not going to be ready for a few years. Expect them to go big later in the draft but take a play right away sort here. A small forward would be handy for them and Tapscott or Moore are not without a shot here. For me though Jetta offers . They do have a couple of his type of players in Hill and Harbrow but he has a very high ceiling and could really excel playing with the Bulldogs good, quick, running midfield.

Lewis Jetta (Swan Districts, WA)
Height: 178cm, Weight: 72kg, DOB: 04/05/89

If you wanted to have a player who represented the stereotypical aboriginal player it would be hard to go past Lewis Jetta. He is a skinny as a rake, with long arms and legs like pipe cleaners. He is quick and very elusive with a great side step. He is very balanced on the move and glides across the turf even if at full pace. His pace is a feature of his game and although it might not be elite at AFL level (he managed a very respectable 2.95 at Camp), the quickness with which he gets up to full pace will put him up with the best. He has great vision and seems to know where everyone is around him. He has great ability to pick up the ball on the deck at full pace and make it look easy. He does not lift his vision enough though imo and tends to go short virtually every time. He is very dangerous going forward, knows where the goals are and will sniff out a goal given half a chance. On the other side of the coin he also is a very outside player who shies away from physical confrontations entirely too much and rarely wins the contested ball. He will get out and chase on the tackle but does not have great technique and gets brushed off fair bit. He looks taller than his listed 180 but rarely gets into marking contests perhaps because he is so easily outbodied. He is a year older than most draftees at 19 year old and has been playing against men all year in the WAFL and doing it very well for the most part. He represented WAFL against SA this year and was amongst the best on ground. He has pretty good penetration on his kicking and can kick them from 50 given the chance. He kicking is a little up and down and he has shown at times to have good touch on his passes and at others that he turns it over too much. He also goes through periods where his handballing is woeful. He has played on the wing in the WAFL and probably projects there in the AFL as well. At Camp somewhat surprisingly he did not test all that well in the agility test (not bad just but not as well as I expected – average overall). He also did not run the beep test and did poorly in the 3km. His two foot leap and off his preferred side were both very good. He needs though to improve the physical aspects of his game before I think we will see him too much in the AFL (although I thought that about Hill as well so what do I know on this point). This is going to be a bit hard given there is also a significant need to up his endurance base. Overall I think he is a pretty good prospect although one I think is a bit overrated. First rounder – sure, but I think 7 is too high.


PICK 16 – PORT ADELAIDE

I can’t see Sheppard falling past here as he is the kind of disciplined player that is really needed at Port. He is a quality all around player without a lot of holes but not really a lot of exceptional skills as well. He is someone Choco can rely on week in week out (although Choco seems to shy away from these types of players). Any indig or flashy player is a chance here as is a forward like Black or Griffiths if available.

Bradley Sheppard (East Fremantle, WA)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 23/05/91
HBF/BP

There is a bit of fluidity about where Sheppard could go as he has some very nice attributes that teams could fall in love with and cause them to take him a fair bit higher than he is rated by others. I had concerns over his disposal skills coming out of the Champs but looking at the WAFL footage those concerns have been assuaged. It is worth noting that he took kick outs for WA at the Champs and also for East Freo this year as a 17 year old which gives you an indication that his kicking is highly regarded by his coaches. Even at the Champs where he missed a few targets I thought his vision looked very good and he consistently took the best options. He had good awareness of where both his own and the opposition players where. He has pretty good penetration on his kicking although he does reasonably regularly miscue which sees his kicks fall short. By hand he might be the best long handball exponent in this years draft and can punch out a 20 metre handball to great effect. It is his short handballs though which are often the problem as, when he is rushed, his handballs tend to be quite poor. He played predominately as a half back at the Champs and at club level and although he can sneak up for a go in the midfield or up forward I think clubs have to be looking at him in a HBF role. He can take a mark overhead but rarely flys and when he does it is usually to spoil and I would not say that aerial skills are a strength of his game. His tackling similarly leaves a lot to be desired tending as he does to go in for the cuddle rather than drive in to break up the play. As a consequence his tackles tend not to be effective even if he is there on time. Defensively he manages to keep pretty close but looks to run off at every opportunity and he tends to get to space to receive very well. He is not in the elite category pace wise but he certainly has good pace and uses this to good effect both in defence and going forward. He likes to get out on the run and can break the lines. He has a pretty good frame and looks like he will develop into a very solid player with a few preseasons under his belt. At present he has a pretty low centre of gravity with powerful upper thighs and glutes. He matched up on Rohan in the Champs and did a pretty fair job. Late first round seems like where he should end up on draft day.


PICK 17 – GEELONG

Geelong are hugely hard to predict because they really like to go their own way and have no trouble taking a guy in the first round that others only rate a third rounder. They also are not adverse to taking a mature aged player in the first round and do not usually go with guys who are not right to play in the first round. That being said I hear that they really like Bartlett and if they want him they are going to have to take him here I think. Geelong’s game style is based on all their mids being able to win the contested ball but he has the potential to do so and his kicking skills certainly fits in. His pace is also something which would be of use to the Cats. Others that might be a chance here are Black if he fell or perhaps Carlisle given the Cats were exposed a bit this year when injury struck. Talia would be ideal for them but I can’t see him falling this far.

Callum Bartlett (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 179cm, Weight: 75kg, DOB: 19/06/91

It is going to be interesting to see where he goes in this draft. He was highly regarded last year and a lot was expected of his this year prior to his knee injury which put him out of action this year. The big negatives for Bartlett are his knee injury, the fact that he has a reputation as being very outside and not winning his own ball and that he is not a big possession getter. It is the last one of those which is of most concern to me. As an outside player he really needs to up his work rate and get more than the 14 possessions a game he got in the TAC last year. Looking at it another way though 14 possessions from a first year player in the TAC is pretty reasonable and you would have expected him to up that a fair bit this year if not for the injury. On last year’s form he needed to improve his endurance and his knee injury is going to seriously affect the amount of running that he is going to be able to do this offseason. Accordingly I can’t see him being any chance to play AFL football in the first half of next year and realistically not until 2011. So he would suit a team that can afford to be patient with him. If your team takes him though there is a lot to like. He has a reputation as being very quick and a good user of the ball and that is certainly the case. He is a little on the short side but has a solid build that looks like he should fill out nicely. As mentioned he is quick but he is also very elusive and has a nice sidestep and swerve which makes him very difficult to tackle. He is not a player who will carry it 50m and then kick it but more often bursts through with a 20m carry and then delivers it nicely to his target. He is more of a power runner than a smooth mover and he has power in his hips that should stand him in good stead in his AFL career. He is a left footer and is pretty one sided although not completely so and he can deliver short passes with his right without too much drama. With his left he is excellent and he delivers it quick and lace out to his targets. Unlike most juniors he already can deliver those flat, bullet-like passes which are so effective at AFL level. He has good penetration but not great and 50m is about his limit. His delivery into his forwards is very good and he leads his forward very nicely and will hit him where only his forward can get it. He does not mind getting forward himself and should end up with 20 or so goals a year playing through the midfield or off a HFF. He is not a big guy and has a reputation as being very outside but he does not mind getting a bit of body contact and is quite good at using his body to free himself up. He is not easily outbodied. He tends to be a bit of a one way player at the moment and is not a big tackler. Given his pace and where he plays this will be expected to change at AFL level. He was rated by some last year as a top 5 prospect and I think could end up as a second round steal for someone this year.

 

[Quigley]

2nd Round

PICK 18 – MELBOURNE

Having gone with two midfielders and then a tall I think they will go for who they consider to be the best available here. Given that Black is right in contention for the number 11 pick I think they will take him here if he is available. This is still higher than I actually rate him but I am giving in to reality a bit given most commentators have him going before now. The others who might get a look in here are Griffiths, Carlisle and Vardy if they want to go tall or Menzel or McMillan-Pittard if they want to go short.

Aaron Black (Peel Thunder, WA)
Height: 193cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 29/11/90

The WA, 19 year old has very much become the flavour of the month and is now considered by most to be a first rounder. I am not as enthused myself. I still have serious concerns about whether he is really a key position or more of a tall utility. He is only 192 which is tall enough but certainly not ideal for a key position. He has gotten a few bags up front for Peel this year and it is the few games where he really racked up the possessions playing in a variety of positions (including the ruck) that has gotten a lot of attention and people’s expectations up. At camp he was up there with the top few in both the standing and running jumps. His sprint results were pretty good for a key position overall but he was a little slow of the mark. I am reading into this that he might not have great explosiveness but he has very nice top speed. His agility is a real concern and he finished very close to the bottom of those tested which would worry teams given he is a slightly short key position already. If he has the turning circle of a prime mover that is going to make him very much a one trick pony. His endurance results were also toward the bottom of the pile. He does however seem to have pretty good skills and he has good but not great hands. As mentioned he is a year older than most of the draftees this year but physically he still has some way to go to cut it with the big boys. With that said he did play a few senior games in the WAFL toward the end of the year and acquitted himself very well. His coach certainly thinks he should be right to go next year. For me there are a lot questions about him and I would feel much more comfortable taking him in the second round rather than the first.


PICK 19 – RICHMOND

Richmond need someone who can kick a few goals and I think they are likely to go in that direction here. If any of the key position forwards that I have off the board are still available I expect them to get a long look here. The most highly rated key position of the rest is probably Carlisle who I don’t rate so I am going to go with the guy who gets compared with Steve Johnson and a Stevie J type in the Richmond forward line would be very handy. Fyfe repeats a little of what they have with Morton but they need a consistent goal threat and he is probably the best available.

Nat Fyfe (Claremont, WA)
Height: 187.4cm, Weight: 75.1kg, DOB: 18/09/91

This guy is one of Irel’s favourites and as he is usually pretty close to the money in regards to the WA boys. I have taken a good close look at him and think as usual he might be onto a winner. Taylor has been the one who has been exciting a lot of people whose teams are picking around here but the one I think they should be looking to as the medium forward with X factor is Fyfe. He has variously been compared to Steve Johnson and Brett Burton and there are definite similarities there to both. Fyfe will play as forward in the AFL either in a pocket or more likely as a half forward. For his size he is probably the best mark available in this draft. He has a very nice leap and when he gets his hands on the ball it usually sticks. Like Johnson he does not have top shelf speed (he tested pretty ordinary in this respect at Camp) but has very good endurance for a half forward and will often try and run his opposition player into the ground working up onto the wings. He also reads the game exceptionally well and despite lacking a little pace he gets to the right spots at the right times and a step ahead of his opposition. He can do some very clever things when he gets the ball and whilst they often come off there are times when he is left looking a bit silly. Still at this stage I would not be trying to stifle his creativity and would be encouraging him to practice these things. If you want amazing you have to practice it and this kid, like Taylor, can do things around goal that set them apart from anyone else in this draft. He has a great awareness of where the goals are and unlike Taylor he is actually a good shot for goal. Whilst Taylor will frustrate supporters with his inconsistency in front of goals and missing the easy ones Fyfe should just keep converting. He is not an elite kick around the ground but he consistently hits his targets. Fyfe is a one touch player when the ball hits the deck and he has good hands to set up others when he has to. At Camp he had a bit of a mixed bag and the biggest surprise for me was how poorly he tested for agility. On the park he looks pretty agile but he didn’t test that way for some reason. He improved a great deal this year and his potential to continue to improve is there for all to see. At present I think the biggest issue for him is to find ways to get more of the ball. He is a low possession winner at present and whilst he still has an influence on the game his endurance should allow him to get more of it than he currently does. He did some very nice things at the Champs for WA and in the WAFL colts he had some very big games including one where he picked up 8 goals from 16 marks.


PICK 20 – FREMANTLE

Freo are definitely a team that needs forward help especially tall forward help but again I do not rate anyone high enough to take them here. Fyfe I think might be a big chance if available and Colyer and Duncan are not without a chance given Freo’s love of the WA boys. There has been a lot of talk about Taylor being taken here but I think this is way too high for him personally so he is one I have a fair way down my list. The other thing I think Freo need is some quality in their kicking and that is something I think they could address here. Having a true quarterback at the back who can use their kicking to hurt opposition teams coming out of defense. For that reason I am going with Menzel here.

Daniel Menzel (Central District, SA)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 77kg, DOB: 13/09/91

Is highly regarded by a few good judges whose opinion I respect and whilst I do not have him in my first round I do think he should go in the top half of the second. He is capable of playing a variety of positions including forward and back but his most value is going to be in the quarterback role at the back. He is a smooth mover who covers the ground with ease. He has reasonable but not great pace but enough to close down most players he comes up against. Defensively he is reasonable and he can do a job if he is given one. He is not a tackler though only managing 0.6 per game during the Champs. At the Champs he played mostly in the quarterback role but did play some games in the forward half. He averaged a very respectable 18 possessions and 6 marks a game but did not score any goals and only had 4 clearances in total. He managed 6.2 contested possessions and 11.8 uncontested possessions per game. What makes him a very good prospect more than anything else is his kicking. Like Tapscott he has excellent penetration and when playing off half back has the ability to kick over top of the forward pressure which is the flavour of the month in the AFL. He generally weights his kicks well and takes good options. He is a right footer but he also has excellent penetration off his left if he has time to balance himself. There has been some talk of him being a potential midfielder but I do not see it myself. He does not have great hands (they measured in very small) and he is not clean enough for me to play through the middle. Overhead he is fairly poor and does not take many contested marks and this more than anything might affect his ability to play up forward. He did not test at Camp pulling out with a quad complaint. I am not sure of the seriousness of the complaint but quads are a particular problem for young AFL players and they can take a fair while to get right. This could affect his preseason and ability to play early next year. I do like him as a prospect however and he very much fits the mould of a modern half back.


PICK 21 – NORTH MELBOURNE

North are going to have to start planning for Harvey’s retirement pretty shortly and this year they have a guy who could well step up to the plate and fill that small, quick midfield / forward role. At the start Colyer is not going to win the ball that Harvey does but he has a fair bit of potential and if you can get past his size he has a lot to offer. He is a ball carry who is very dangerous with ball in hand and will be through defenses before they know what to do

Travis Colyer (Claremont, WA)
Height: 173cm, Weight: 67kg, DOB: 24/8/91

Colyer looks like an elite runner. Not only is he exceptionally quick he also has good endurance and can run with the best of them in this draft. He gets to space well and gives an option and once he gets the ball he loves to attack the defence with the ball in hand. He uses his pace extremely well to get separation on his man and then he will bounce it and run as far as he can. He shows good bouncing technique and rarely loses control. Think of Justin Sherman or Rhys Shaw in this regard. What he is not is tall and comes in well under the magical 180 mark which seems to be a requirement for modern footballers. Camp measurements were also not kind to him taking a couple centimetres off his advertised height and 6kgs off his weight. He also had the shortest arms and second smallest hands at Camp. His pace though makes him draftable. He is a flanker who can go into the middle for periods and play on ball. His best work though is as an outside player where he can receive and use his pace. A few people have suggested playing him in the forward pocket as a crumber and chase down forward but I do not think he would be good in this role. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he reads the ball off hands particularly well and quite frankly he does not have great goal sense. He scores a few goals but he has plenty of opportunities and tends to spray it a bit. His field kicking is not elite but neither is it poor. He does not have great penetration and struggles from 45. He does not stab the ball but his passes tend to get where they need to go. He loops his handballs a bit and for me he handballs too much and too often to teammates who are not in a great position. Marking wise he does okay but at his size he is always pushing it uphill. He shows good tackling technique and realises what his pace can do for him defensively and does not mind working the other way. When playing onball he is serviceable but his hands are not as quick as you want from your specialist inside guys. In addition to measuring disappointedly at Camp he also did not test as well as I am sure he would have liked. His 20m time of 2.96 was higher than expected (apparently he has tested much quicker than this previously) and his 3km time was only average. He was in the top few in the agility test and repeat sprint which redeemed things a bit. His beep test was also pretty good. He has come in and played senior games in the WAFL and has not looked out of place playing some nice games and getting a bit of it. I like him as he is a player who takes the game on and has the weapons to make him a dangerous player.


PICK 22 – WEST COAST

Even if the Eagles take Jetta in the first round I still think they will look to take a small forward option here or at 23. Jetta is not a true small forward (more a goal scoring wing) and they could use someone with a bit of magic in the forward pocket who will get back and chase hard when needed. I am sure that WC fans will be groaning again with my pick (especially after reaching in the first round as well) but hey I really rate this guy and think he would suit your team down to the ground. He is a local boy and can come in and play straight away. The Eagles are a lot closer to contending than a lot of people think and their biggest need I think is some flair and TDL would offer that.

Trent Dennis-Lane (Subiaco, WA)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 76kg, DOB: 30/08/88

Dennis-Lane is a guy who has been on teams’ radars for a couple of years and has flashed real talent before but he finally got it all together this year on a consistent basis. He finished second in the WAFL in goal kicking this year with 67 playing out of the forward pocket. He looks like a player who has worked hard to get the best out of himself and I think someone will give him a shot this year. He looks very much like the type of small forward that many teams are looking for. He has top shelf pace that he uses effectively both ways. He is not a great tackler at the moment but he does work very hard defensively and he applies a lot of pressure on opposition players in his area. On the lead he gets good separation and his hands are solid and he reads the ball in flight well to arrive at the drop to his best advantage. Importantly for AFL purposes he is also a good crumber who is very clever when the ball hits the ground. When he gets the ball he is very elusive and is difficult to get his hands on. He has a tendency to go to ground a bit but he recovers exceptionally quickly. He will go to ground one second and be up chasing the next. The thing with him as well is that he can go straight in and play next year as a mature aged recruit. He is not very heavy but he is used to playing against men. He was not invited to Camp but set the WA State Screening on fire. He managed a 2.88 in the 20m, 14.6 in the beep and 93cm off one foot (this was significantly higher than was done by anyone at Camp). A fantastic result by any standard. I really like this guy and think he should be snapped up earlier than most expect. I note that he has been given permission to train with Freo. I am not sure what this says or what affect it will have on his draft credentials. I know that he suits Brisbane’s needs down to the ground and if we reached for him in the second round I would have no trouble with it and think we did pretty well.


PICK 23 – WEST COAST

Okay I have reached a bit for West Coast’s first two picks so I am taking pity on Eagles fans and playing this pick by the book. Duncan is just a solid all around footballer who could play forward or through the midfield. He and LeCras could split time between the forward line and midfield. He is an improving player and would be another nice addition to the West Coast stable of midfield options.

Mitchell Duncan (East Perth, WA)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 81kg, DOB: 10/6/91

Was more highly thought of immediately after the Champs but is now no longer a sexy pick which is a shame. Duncan is just a good footballer without any real holes in his game but on the other side of the coin he doesn’t have any exceptional qualities either. He was an important element in the WA Championship winning team and was rewarded with an All Australian Selection. He averaged 19.6 disposals per game playing mostly on the wing or on a flank and he kicked a respectable 8 goals 2 behinds for the Champs. He also played a handful of senior games for East Perth in the WAFL as a half forward who floated up onto the wing. He was serviceable overall and did have a very nice 3 goal game against Peel in round 18 in front of the ABC cameras and that kind of thing never hurts your draft stock. He has some nice size about him and whilst I wouldn’t say he has really sticky hands he is pretty reasonable overhead. He does find space well and positions himself well to receive the ball. He has great awareness and vision and takes very good options when he has the ball. He is not a big handballer but when he does it is usually to advantage and he is someone who usually makes his handballs count. I don’t think I have said that too often in this mock. Kicking wise he is solid without being exception but he does tend to weight his kicks pretty well. He can get good penetration on his kicks but he is not usually a long kick in general play. Against Vic Country he kicked a goal from 52 out which is pretty much the extent of his range at the moment. At Camp he disappointed a bit with a fairly slow 20m time but somewhat redeemed himself with a respectable 30m repeat sprint time. He was one of the slowest off the mark of anyone tested and he takes his time to wind up to full speed. His top speed is reasonable. He did manage a very nice agility time and his endurance tests were good, particularly his 3km. He was top ten in the agility and 3km tests. Overall like I said he is just a very solid footballer who should go on to become a very serviceable AFL player. He has not shown much propensity yet to win his own ball but I think there is scope there to add that to his game.


PICK 24 – ESSENDON
Essendon have two picks coming up and might use this pick to grab the player who many consider the best ruckman available this year. Personally I do not rate him particularly highly as you will see from my write up but he does represent solid value here and the Bombers were found out a bit for ruck depth this year. Ryder showed some good development and Hille should be back next year but after that there is not much. Bellchambers was patchy at best. As I write this I have thought that Vardy reminds me a bit of Hille both the good and the bad and it will be interesting to see how he develops.

Nathan Vardy (Gippsland Power, VIC)
Height: 198cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 25/06/91

Vardy is likely to be the first ruck taken but in most years he would be well down the list. He has just gotten lucky that the rucks are so ordinary this year. The AA ruck this year was only 194cms tall and the best AFL ruck prospect by a fair margin has already committed to the Gold Coast. Vardy is billed as a ruck / forward probably more so because he is a bit short for an AFL ruck rather than from any true likelihood that he is an AFL forward prospect. He does not have a good set of hands (which are small for such a big man) and he just does not attack the ball in the air. He struggles to get separation, does not use his height advantage and is most often outmanoeuvred by the defender in the marking contest. His kicking for goal is adequate but not more than that. In the ruck he gets his hands to the ball often enough but really needs to learn what the hell he is doing when he gets a clean tap. He does not get the ball often enough to advantage. He is also not a modern possession ruck who is going to give you anything much around the ground. Another thing which is not going to help him is that he has quad issues which caused him to miss draft camp. Quads are very difficult to get right and he will most likely have to be carefully managed if the best is to be gotten out of him. That is likely to mean an abridged first preseason for whichever team takes him. So my assessment is he is a short, low possession, not very skilled ruck and a forward who is not likely to actually get you many goals whose development might be slowed by injury. Overly harsh? Yeh probably. On the positive side he is a nice mover for a ruckman who covers the ground well and has reasonable pace. In the ruck he can tap using either hand and there is plenty to work on. Also for a guy who does not seem to jump much he times his jumps well to contact the ball at his highest point. Body wise he looks like he will fill out and will be powerful through the trunk. Once he grows into his body he should be a powerful figure on the field. Overall I think he will be a journeyman ruckman and part time forward but is hard for me to see him as more than that.


PICK 25 – NORTH MELBOURNE

North could use a running tallish backman to replace Gibson and Smith and also a forward who can actually kick a few goals. In both cases there are guys on the list who North seem happy with at this stage so I am going to go midfield again with this pick. North could use a bit of ball winning grunt in their current midfield crop and so I am going to go with an All Australian who has improved a great deal this year. This is about the stage where Harwood is likely to go and he adds a different dimension to the North on-ball brigade. Stevens is the other I seriously considered here.

Ryan Harwood (Tassie Mariners, TAS)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 08/07/91

For some reason over the last few years teams have marked down the Taswegians and they have been taken lower than I and others expected. Robinson, Cornelius, Collier and certainly Joseph all were taken lower than I think was warranted based on talent and performance and for the most part they should each have caused the recruiters to reconsider why they have been marking down these guys. For that reason it is going to be interesting to see where Harwood goes as despite having a good few quality strengths he also has quite a few holes in his arsenal which could cause him to fall. First the good, he is a very good in and under player who wins plenty of contested possessions. He is aggressive in the contest and attacks with good physical intensity. He also brings the physical side to his defensive work. He is a good tackler and he finishes his tackles off well. He is a guy who thrives on the physical aspects of the contest and will love the step up to the AFL. He has good, quick hands in close and he takes consistently good options feeding the ball out from contested situations. He holds his feet well in the contest and moves well in contested situations. At Camp he did very well in the kicking test apparently and it is interesting that his disposal skills are probably the biggest knock on him. Like quite a few of the top prospects this year on the park he has been seen to miss too many targets and can lack penetration. His good test results might cause a few teams to reconsider on this issue. Combine his kicking though with below par athleticism and you have some decent sized question marks over him as an AFL player. Personally I see him making it. He is a footballer and his inside talent is something which sets him apart from all but a few available this year. He has shown great improvement over the last year and had a very good Champs this year. He averaged 21.4 disposals a game, 5.6 clearances (best in the Champs) and 4 tackles per game. According to his coach he has had some “off field issues” which he has worked through and he is a guy who his coach believes will really benefit from being in an AFL environment. If you are in need of an in and under you could definitely do worse than Harwood.


PICK 26 – ESSENDON

Rather than trying to replace like for like with the departure of Lovett I think Essendon should look for quick player who are also ball winners and thus can take the pressure off the likes of Watson to shoulder the load there. The guy I think fits the bill here is Crichton who plays quick (although he timed very poorly), he wins his own ball and is a great tackler (another thing which they could use with their departures). He is light and more than a little inconsistent but if the Bombers are patient he is likely to represent good value here. A replacement for McPhee is also on the cards with one of these two picks but you have to think that they will want to give Myers a good run next year.

Jessie Crichton (Tassie Mariners, TAS)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 72kg, DOB: 18/06/91

Was a little disappointing this year after coming in with a lot of expectations on him. Playing for Tasmania he got a lot of attention from the defensive midfielders at the Champs and struggled to have an impact in some of the games. Still he managed to average 20 possessions a game so he did not do too badly. He is very much on the skinny side at the moment and is probably unlikely to ever be particularly big but he should fill out a bit once he gets into an AFL program. It might take him a year or so to get his body up to AFL size and it is worth noting he did put on 6kgs between his advertised weight and what he measured at Camp. Despite not having a great year I still see him getting drafted fairly highly because he is the type of player who seems ideally suited to the modern game. He is tall with long arms, has good pace and endurance and is capable of working inside and out. What he does do exceptionally well is tackle through the midfield. He really works hard defensively and he uses his pace to chase down and tackle opposition players and you know this is a valuable commodity in AFL football. He wins plenty of contested ball and is not afraid to throw himself into the contest and has reasonably clean hands in the contest. He has good vision and awareness of where his teammates are around him and makes good decisions. His kicking needs some work and he does not have great penetration currently. Another thing which would appeal to AFL teams is that he sneaks forward a lot and is a regular goal kicker. There have been some rumblings about attitude issues but he seems to come from a nice, down to earth family so I am disregarding that as an individual getting him on a bad day. For me personally Crichton’s performance might have been the most disappointing of anyone at Camp. I am hoping that his performance can be put down to trying to chock on the weight to show that he can and be right for AFL football next year. As mentioned he has put on 6kgs this year and his skin folds at Camp were in the bottom third (ie most fat). Also the speed that was his trade mark was not there and he ran very poorly especially in regards to his pace off the mark. His repeat sprints were better but still not great. His shuttle run was middle of the road and again much lower than I expected and his 3km time poor. The only decent performance was in the agility test where he came in the top 10. In the jumps he was good off his right but poor off two feet and off his right. What was going on? Did he come in injured? I don’t know but these results were much worse than I expected.


PICK 27 – BRISBANE

Okay we have gotten to the Lions pick and I have pretty much already allocated those that I like for the Lions to other teams. The Lions need and inside mid (best case for me would be Bastinac but chances are slim and after him maybe Harwood would be good and Crichton not bad either), a small forward who can score goals and has good pace (I would have absolutely no problem if the Lions took Dennis-Lane here and it would actually make a lot of sense) and key positions (can’t see Griffiths being available and Panos is a little similar to Cornelius but if we ended up with those guys it would be good). A quick mid with good skills would also be handy (thinking Bartlett here). As it is I am going to go with a Qld local who is quickish, good in and under and can go forward when required. The fact that we would be stealing him from Collingwood is an added bonus.

Josh Thomas (Redlands, QLD)
Height: 176cm, Weight: 74kg, DOB: 01/10/91

As has widely been reported he had a pretty nice deal on the table form the Gold Coast apparently so it is pretty clear that he has gotten a promise from someone. It has been widely suggested that it is Collingwood but no-one knows for sure. He is a Brisbane supporter so it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he might be holding out for the Lions to select him. He is a little on the short side and measured a couple of centimetres under his advertised height but he does play above his height. He is this year’s Dayne Beams and plays a lot like him. Predominantly an insider player he is very good in the clearances with a great ability to move to assume front position and then burst onto the ball and out the other side of the contest. He reads the ball exceptionally well off hands and is just one of those who always seems to be in the right spot to get the tap. He has quick hands and can pick it up below the knees and shoot out the handball before you know what is happening. I think he is much better handballing from the contest rather than kicking which I think he does a little too much. He is not someone who seems to have a lot of time in the contest and will often just get the ball and throw it on the boot without looking where he is kicking it to. He kicks to the contest a bit too much in broken field play as well. He does not have great penetration on his kicking but neither is he particularly short with his kicks. He is a right footer who is pretty reasonable off his left. On the left he does not look natural but he is very effective hitting targets at short to medium range. His effectiveness might be better on the left rather than the right because he knows his limitations a bit more with the left I believe. He is pretty reasonable overhead for a small guy but is not really a goal kicker. This is despite the fact that his Qld coach seems to think he is a half forward option. For me he is an in and under midfielder and not likely to be much else. On the outside he works hard and makes good space and gets himself open for his teammates. He hurt himself at Camp during the jumps and did not test but he seems to have good pace especially from a standing start and his endurance is very good. Overall he is a very solid second or third round selection in this draft.


PICK 28 – GEELONG

Geelong’s biggest needs are key positions particularly forwards. Panos and Carlisle are the two highest regarded key positions left and I think Geelong go with the guy who lead the Champs in goals. Panos has slipped from where a lot of people initially saw him and on the day he could slip a lot further. Still he is a relative new comer to the elite level and has shown a good propensity to put the ball through the big sticks which is very much a skill in demand.

Matthew Panos (Norwood, SA)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 25/01/91

Is falling a bit and now expected to go in the second round. Taken then I think he could well be a steal. The big problem that Panos has is that he is slightly shorter than you would like for a key position and does not have the upper echelon athleticism that teams usually like to see. He falls into the category of just being a very good footballer. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could fall in the same way that Cornelius fell last year although he did test a bit better than Aaron. Panos tested in the upper quarter for leap which was very handy and although he tested in the bottom third for pace it was probably better than many like myself feared it might be. He is not quick in the first few metres but once he is up and running his pace is adequate for him to survive at AFL level. He tested in the top third for agility which was very good for a key position and shows his indoor soccer roots but he only had average endurance tests. Panos has played his football as a true key position forward as a junior and I hope he gets an opportunity to play there as a senior. He is most dangerous inside 50 but can also do some damage outside 50 as his delivery into other key targets is excellent. He has good hands both up high and down low and for a key position it is great to see how clean he is below the knees. He is very well balanced kicking the ball and he is just one of those guys who makes kicking the ball to his targets look effortless. Inside 50 he has a great ability to time his jumps to take the ball at his highest point and once he gets his hands on the ball it usually sticks. He is one of the best kicks for goal in this year’s draft and can slot them out to 50. He needs to work on his repeat efforts on the leads but I think it is a mistake to just lump him in as a straight ahead forward. He has a good turning circle for a key position and a smart football brain that gets him to good spots. He also reads the ball better than his match up on most occasions and positions himself to advantage. Defensively he can be a little inconsistent in his effort but I have seen him work hard defensively and pressure and tackle the backs going out of defence. He will also work for his other forwards setting blocks to free them up. For the Champs he returned 14 goals 4 behinds which was a good return for SA. I have heard him compared to Heath Grundy as a junior and at AFL level I think that is his floor. At his best he could be a Bradshaw type player. Certainly a solid prospect and one I would be very happy to get if he fell to my team in the second round.


PICK 29 – ADELAIDE

A KPD is probably not the Crows biggest need but they will definitely take one at some stage in this draft given that they delisted a couple of tall backmen. All of the key positions from here on have major question marks and Craig has as much if not more of a chance of making it as anyone.

James Craig (North Adelaide, SA)
Height: 195cm, Weight: 91kg, DOB: 18/04/91


Oh to be 3 or 4cm taller. As it is the All Australian ruckman is probably too short to be a number 1 ruck in the AFL given he measured in under 195cm. He did pretty well against most of the bigger named rucks this year including Vardy but struggled against the guy I consider to be the best ruck prospect this year in Zac Smith. Smith is 204cm and Craig could not use his athleticism to get over top of the bigger and equally athletic type like he would get week in week out in the AFL. At camp he lead the way in the standing vertical (not that great based on historical figures but still fairly good) and was right up there in the jumping off either foot. So despite his lack of an inch or two of height he can get up there and when he does he is a very good ruck technician who directs his taps to his players better than anyone else available this year. He is not a possession ruck and averaged only 9.8 possessions a game at the Champs. At the Champs he played a bit up forward and got a couple of goals but I don’t see him as a forward option at AFL level. I think his best chance in the AFL is playing as a full back who can do a bit of back up rucking to help out a dominant ruck. He would need to work on his agility though which although not terrible is certainly a fair bit below what you need from your KPDers in the AFL. He does have the pace though and he can get to contests and seems to be a good read of the ball in the air. He has fair hands overhead but being down back and being able to spoil as his first option would suit him. Below the knees I think he is better than most big guys going around and his time in the ruck will stand him in good stead here. He likes to throw his weight around and get into a wrestling match and although he needs to build up a bit I think his game style would adapt well to playing at the back. His kicking around the ground is good and I think he has pretty good game skills. He has his work cut out for him having to adjust to a new position but I think there is certainly plenty for teams to work with and that should see him get drafted.


PICK 30 – COLLINGWOOD

Okay its Collingwood’s pick lets give them someone I don’t rate Realistically Carlisle is likely to be well gone before now and Collingwood are probably more likely to go with an in and under like Thomas, Harwood or Crichton. They do however need some talent in the key positions. I am sure the Collingwood fans will be quick to scream telling me about Dawes, Reid, Brown yadda yadda yadda. The fact is though that none of those guys have really stepped up and established themselves as top shelf AFL players. If they had the chance to get Carlisle at 30 I am sure they would take him.

Jake Carlisle (Calder Cannons, VIC)
Height: 197cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 01/10/91

A lot of people on BF rate Carlisle some very highly as seen with him going at 8 in the phantom draft. Personally I don’t rate him much at all. I see him as too slow and not agile enough to play as a backman at AFL level and not enough of a goal scoring threat to play as a forward. In fact if I was picking him it would not be until well into the second possibly third round and it would be with the view to making him into a Mitch Clark-like ruckman. He is a little undersized but has grown this year is only a half centimetre under 198 and when you combine that with very long arms (third longest at camp after Gawn and Vardy) he has a definite chance imo to make it work. Playing in the ruck would allow him to float around and use his good judgement to influence games. He has struggled to step up and have a significant influence on the game against top quality opposition and I was not impressed with him at the Champs. Similarly in the TAC GF when he played as a third tall and towered over his opposition. If he could not take advantage of that situation I struggle to see him doing it against AFL quality players. When he is given a clean run at the ball he seems to have good hands and takes the ball at the highest part of his jump. When he is bodied though or there is pressure on the contest I have not seen anything to indicate that his hands are anything other than poor. He is a pretty good kick over short and medium distances again similar to Mitch Clark and he has had a few big possession games when he has been given a bit of freedom. He does not have good body strength and is regularly outmuscled by smaller TAC players. At Camp he tested poorly finishing bottom 5 in the repeat sprint and bottom third in agility. His 20m time was not good and he was very slow off the mark. It has also been reported recently that has a back problem which further devalues him in my eyes.


PICK 31 – WESTERN BULLDOGS

As mentioned in the first round the Bulldogs are in their window but it is also worth remembering that there next generation looks very good as well with their two father sons next year likely to steals for them and set up their next generation midfield. They still need key positions and they have to get someone capable of taking a mark up forward. I am reaching here taking Temel but he might be the best mark available this year. I would not have considered taking him anywhere near here prior to State Screening but my attitude now is that this is a kid who is definitely taking a punt on if you can afford to go high risk high reward.

Serhat Temel (Calder Cannons, VIC)
Height: 195cm, Weight: 95kg, DOB: 18

Is he just a big kid beating up on smaller kids who will be found out when he comes up against guys just as big and just as strong as himself? Perhaps but in this draft there is not much key position depth so chances are he is going to get picked up at some stage. This is all the more likely when you consider how accurate a kick he is. Prior to the TAC final he had kicked 53 goals (and a further 5 in the GF) and only 20 behinds and that was from less than a full year up forward. His kicking style is okay although he has an unusual grip on the ball. He has very big hands though and he controls the drop well and so has a nice consistent drop and kick. This kid shot to prominence with a dominant TAC finals performances where he kicked multiple bags of goals. The longer the season went the better he got. He plays tall and I was expecting him to measure taller than 195 but there you go. He still has a significant amount of body fat that will be worked off in a professional environment. He has very powerful legs and once he is set he is very difficult to move. Where he is going to struggle is that does not create separation and takes all his marks with a defender breathing down his neck. He does have fantastic hands though and everything that comes his way overhead he grabs. He is a terrific mark of the ball. He does not work below the knees and anything on the ground is a lost cause around Temel. On the ground he plays very slow and I was expecting him to time very poorly at camp. It was a significant surprise to me when he showed pretty reasonable pace. So as a forward there might be a bit of speed there for an AFL team to work with there especially when it looks like he has never done speed work in his life. What might be leading to his poor playing speed could be his lack of endurance. To put it simply I cannot recall a prospect ever scoring worse in the beep test. Again this is not necessarily a bad thing as it shows teams that there is plenty of upside when they get a few kms into him. It is going to be painful for him though. The team that takes him is also going to want to work on his jumping as he struggles to get off the ground atm. When he gets up the ground his around the ground kicking is pretty ordinary and does not seem to have great vision. He also is very much an old fashion forward and does not chase defensively although with his lack of endurance that is not that much of a surprise. I am sure a lot of teams will be interested in him given his goal scoring ability and I think he might go higher than a lot expect. Personally I would take the risk in the third round given that his upside is so great and there are not a lot of sure fire options available then in any event.


PICK 32 – ST KILDA

Jasper McMillan-Pittard (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 186, Weight: 71, DOB: 1/1/91

He is currently getting first round attention thanks to some very positive comments coming out of the Sydney camp after their interview with him at draft camp. Apparently he interviewed exceptionally well and impressed them a lot with how much he thinks about the game. As a player I think the first round is a little high but he seems a solid second round pick. He is likely to be a flanker of some description in the AFL with the betting at the moment to be in favour of the back half. He seems suited to one of those lose checking / run-off roles which are finding their way into modern football. He is not particularly defensive minded but coming out from defense he is very good and he is one of those guys who teams want with the ball in his hand. He will carry it 30 metres and then deliver a nicely waited pass into his forwards. It is his forward entries which I think are a highlight of his game as he is very good at putting it to the advantage of his forwards. He is not a particularly long kick though so I do not think I can see him in the quarterback role at AFL level. That means he is going to need to man up and work on his defense more than he currently does. He is not a particularly strong tackler and again this needs to be worked on. At the Champs he averaged 16 possessions and 5 marks a game and he was a key member of the dominant (at least until they go to the finals) Geelong team. For some reason at Camp he only tested in the two foot jump and the 3km timetrial. His 3km time was pretty good. On the park he seems like a good mover and is someone who reads the play well and arrives at the right time. When he has the ball he has very good vision and takes the best options 9 times out of 10. I think there is a fair bit of potential for development in Jasper and he could become a very nice player for a good team but there are definitely some holes to fill first.


PICK 33 – ESSENDON

The Bombers will continue to build their midfield I think in the second round with the likes of Harwood and Crichton being in contention although I also would not right off a running backman like Menzel if he was available. Stevens I have dropped right down because I do not really rate him but I fully expect him to be gone before now on draft day.

Koby Stevens (Gippsland Power, VIC)
Height: 187cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 18/06/91

Does not really have any stand out qualities that are going to sell him as a high draft pick to teams. He is just a solid player all around but I am not sure I would be wanted to drop a high draft pick on him. He also didn’t test at camp pulling out with groin issues (ie OP). A good performance at camp would have helped him a fair bit I think but I would not be surprised to see him slip down the order a bit. Athletically he is solid with reasonable but not great pace, similarly with endurance and agility. His kicking is solid but nothing to write home about and if anything he doesn’t use it as well as he should. He can get a little handball happy and he looks to handball first and second. He also tends to look short too much and should lift his eyes more to see down field options. When he does kick he has a pretty nice style and has pretty good penetration. At the Champs he was one of the best mids for Vic Country combining well with Martin and Cunnington. At the Champs he managed 18.6 possessions per game to go along with 3 clearances and 6 tackles per game. He lead the Champs in tackles. He has a good physique, with pretty good height and a nice frame. He is good overhead for a mid although he tends to fly for a lot more than he brings down. He does not mind throwing himself into the contests but I would not say he is hard nut. Overall I think he is a fairly plain vanilla type player who will be a solid 22 player but highly unlikely to ever be a star. He just does not have the weapons. Added to the fact that he has been diagnosed with OP and I would be surprised if he did not slip into the second round come draft day. The only way he goes higher I think is if someone determines that his performances this year were materially inhibited by his OP and once right he should have more weapons than he showed this year.

 

[Quigley]

3rd round

PICK 34 – MELBOURNE

Melb might be starting to consider passing for the PSD or taking recycled players here. If they decided to use the pick they could pretty much go any way. Given I have them taking two key positions with their previous two selections I think they can go small here with a guy who might be come in and replace what they lost with McLean’s departure and might actually be the goal scoring midfielder that McLean was not. I know a lot of people rate Christensen but given his size and injury issues I would not be surprised to see him drop more than a lot on here believe is appropriate. I certainly could easily see him going lower than this.

Allen Christensen (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 176cm, Weight: 77kg, DOB: 19/05/91

I’m not totally sold on Christensen despite him having a pretty good junior career. He is a prolific possession winner at TAC level and did pretty well at the Champs as well averaging 19 a game. He is an undersized mid / forward who has above average pace and pretty reasonable endurance. He has put a bit of weight this year but most of it seems puppy fat and I am sure that once he gets into an AFL environment that will soon be turned into muscle. At the moment he has a bit of an unusual body shape but he has a low centre of gravity and holds his feet very well in the contest. His disposal skills are pretty middle of the pack. What he does do I think whether in the middle or up forward is read the play well and move to the right places. This is a very underrated skill and he seems to read the play a step or two ahead of others. At AFL level I think he might end up being a forward pocket player and on the field he reminds me a bit of Milne. The big difference though is he is not a great shot for goal. His technique in front of goal looks pretty good but he consistently pushes it wide. He gets plenty of opportunities and if he could sort this out he could be a nice acquisition up front. He gets out on the lead well and is good overhead with strong hands despite his lack of height. As mentioned also he reads the play well off hands and with his body strength he creates things. Still with his height and issues in front of goal he is up against it from the start. Then you need to consider the OP issues which stopped him testing at Camp. A lot of people love him but I think there are plenty of better options available in the first couple of rounds.


PICK 35 – RICHMOND

Richmond have holes all over the park and I think they just have to keep taking the best available all through this draft. When they get to this position Gysberts is probably the best available and he could maybe end up as a replacement for Kane Johnson.

Jordan Gysberts (Eastern Ranges, VIC)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 11/06/91

Gysberts is somewhat overrated on Bigfooty I think. If my team picked him in the first round I would be a bit disappointed because quite simply he turns the ball over entirely too much. Quite simply he is poor by foot, misses targets and often taking the wrong options. He has a lot of good qualities but if you are a liability when you get the ball you shouldn’t be a first round selection. Okay a few good things. He has very nice size for a midfielder being almost 190cm tall. He is fairly thin at the moment but looks like he should fill out nicely when he gets into an AFL environment. He moves very nicely on the field and is one of those guys who almost glides across the park. He is a very balanced mover and is strong over the ball and rarely goes to ground. He is versatile and can play all over the park. The other side of that though is he really hasn’t established himself as a specialist in any particular position. In the midfield he is a bit of an outside in player who regularly goes forward. He is a regular goal kicker at TAC level averaging just under a goal a game and he managed similar production at the Champs where he picked up 6 goals in his 5 games. He managed 16.5 disposals a game at the Champs with 6.2 contested and 10.2 uncontested possessions a game. Although he looks best out and running he was fairly effective in the contests shovelling the ball out. His hands are not as quick as I like to see for an inside mid but he has done well enough to date. He tends to take a second or two more to dispose of the ball than the top in and under prospects. Defence has not been his forte and it is something which needs to be improved if he is going to make it as an AFL player. He does not commit to the tackles and he only averaged 1.8 tackles a game at the Champs. Up forward he leads well and has solid but not fantastic hands (which measured definitely on the small side). He did not test at camp so I relying on the eye ball test here but he seems to have reasonable but not top shelf pace and similar endurance.


PICK 36 – FREMANTLE

Freo have done very well in the last couple of years taking value when it was offered. I don’t see Taylor as being value at 20 but at 37 it is a different story. The risk / reward equation is very high with this guy and with the question marks over him he should not be taken before this. Freo have been the team consistently linked with Taylor and if things develop as they hope he could significantly address the lack of goal scoring options in the Freo forward line.

Troy Taylor (NT Thunder, NT)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 75kg, DOB: 12/09/91

A big late riser who I think is being overrated quite a bit being mentioned as a first round or even early second round prospect. From where he has come from though it is pretty amazing. This kid has been in some very serious legal trouble for the last two years culminating in him spending 4 months in detention earlier in the year. On coming out of detention though he has seemed determined to turn his life around at least that is the way it has looked to date. He moved from Darwin to Alice Springs and was given an opportunity to train with the NT U18 squad. On far from ideal preparation he made the team and impressed quite a few at the Champs. Playing as a forward at the Champs he averaged 13 possessions, 3.4 marks and 3.2 tackles per game and he kicked 7 goals and 8 behinds. He is a player who flashes brilliance and teams are salivating at the chance of getting him into a full time environment and getting him to play at his talent level on a consistent basis. He is fantastic with the ball on the ground and is a one touch player who will come through packs at speed and snaffle the ball on the way through with others wondering what happened. He is also is a physical presence on the park who will throw his weight around and makes his tackles felt. He is very raw however having played all over the park and his camp results were pretty poor. His skinfolds were high, endurance poor (he finished a distant last in the 3k) and his speed results were significantly below what you would have hoped. He does have very long arms and good height for a small medium and is a reasonable one legged jumper but he is going to have trouble initially I think jumping over players with AFL level athleticism like he does at present. Teams will need to evaluate to what extent the results were a product of a lack of specialist preparation and to what extent they were a product of a lack of natural athleticism. The lack of speed is a bit of a concern for me. The endurance should be fine if he is prepared to work. He is a very good mark and he is a player who has very good balance and strength in the marking contest. There are guys who go up for marks and do not get buffeted around as much in the air and this is one of them. If your team gets him you are buying a natural footballer who is likely to struggle initially with the pace and athleticism of AFL football. To his credit he also broke into the NT AFLQ senior side playing 4 games toward the end of the year. He is likely to start as a half forward and his goal kicking would also have to be a bit of a concern to teams. As mentioned in the Champs he kicked 7 goals 8 behinds whilst in the AFLQ he managed only 2 goals and 7 behinds. At present he is very laconic in his approach to goal and he varies his approach from shot to shot. Sometimes he will only walk a couple of steps, others he will shuffle in and others again he will run with a few abbreviated steps thrown in. I am sure a team that gets him will look to get him into a set routine and this might help his goal kicking consistency. Notwithstanding the accuracy issues he has a good leg on him and 50m out is not a problem. He is a good story but I think a few are getting a bit carried away by it at the moment.


PICK 37 – NORTH MELBOURNE

So I continue to have North building up there midfield depth with another player who has quite a bit to offer. Carey I think represents pretty good value here and is a nice complement to the other players I have them taking. They are likely to go tall either here or at 41 but I thought it best to snap up Carey now.

Alex Carey (Glenelg, SA)
Height: 181cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 27/08/91

He is a bit of an enigma and one I have been having trouble figuring out. He does not fit neatly into any particular box and just when you think you can categorise him as one thing he does something to disprove that theory. Everyone on BF has pegged him as an inside player but I do not see that myself. I think he is an outside in player who can go into the middle and win his own ball but does his best work on the wings finding space. He does not have the quick hands and ability to read the ball off hands that really good inside players have nor does he throw himself into the contests. There are times when you think he is soft for not committing to a contest whilst at other times he has no trouble doing so. It is these types of contradictions that make him a difficult read. At times he seems to have really good vision taking good options but at others you think he has a tendency not to lift his eyes enough. He tends to play short a fair bit but when he lifts his eyes he executes very well to targets 40+ metres away. He looks very balanced and composed with the ball in hands and things look to come easy to him but he misses his fair share of easy targets. He seems largely an offensive player and yet he did a pretty good job matched up on Scully at the Champs. There is however plenty to work with and if Carey gets it all together he could be a very nice player AFL player the talent is certainly there. He is a very nice mover who has a knack for getting open and he finds plenty of the ball. At the Champs he averaged 20.2 possessions a game, two thirds of which were uncontested. He also managed 2.6 clearances and tackles per game which is solid but unspectacular. In short he is a player who should at least be a solid contributor to a good team but has the potential to be much better. He played in the SANFL reserves grand final and tested at the SA State Screening instead and he was largely unimpressive. His jumping was middle of the field and his endurance and agility were slightly disappointing. He tested with glacial speed off the mark and overall a fairly poor 20m. He actually did reasonably well from 5m to 20m but his first 5m were terrible.


PICK 38 – SYDNEY

It is no secret that Sydney need key position depth and as I have yet to give them a big guy I figured it was about time. Houghton is a forward all the way at the moment but I think he could end up as a defender in Sydney. He has the height and athleticism to cover most of the forwards going around and his great endurance would allow him to even step and have a crack at Reiwoldt. He suits their needs very well and I am sure the Swans would be happy to snare him here.

Joel Houghton (WA)
Height: 196cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: ?
CHF

Highly rated on BF but I do not think he should be rated as highly as some do. First the positives, he has good height and has reasonable athleticism. He has good penetration on his kicks and will slot them from 50. He is also a pretty good shot for goal when he gets his hands on it. He has good goal sense and is pretty creative for a big guy. He reads the ball well in the air and times his arrival at the ball well also. He is pretty good below his knees for a key position and his hands above his head are reasonable to. Athletically he is reasonable and tested well at WA State Screening without setting the world on fire. That all sounds pretty good but there are plenty of question marks as well. He was largely ineffective at the Champs and there are major concerns about whether he will step up against guys as big and strong as he is. He rarely takes contested marks and he seems to have trouble maintaining position in body on body contests. He is on the thin side at the moment and he looks like he will fill out fine but if he has trouble against guys a lot smaller than he is now how is he going to go against AFL players? There has also been questions about his attitude and whether he wants it enough to do that work that is going to be required. I do not know the truth of this but certainly it is something that teams will look closely at. In the WAFL colts he only averaged 12 possessions a game and it is safe to assume that he is not going to up that when he gets to the AFL level. He is very balanced in his run up to shoot for goal but around the ground he has a rolling gait particularly with the ball in hand and he loses quite a bit of pace I think when he is carrying the ball. He will make a tackle or two a game but he does not work consistently going the other way.


PICK 39 – HAWTHORN

Hawthorn have to believe they are right in premiership contention but they have two big holes in their team. Firstly they need KPD help and secondly they need help in the ruck where they are now very thin with only two established rucks. It is basically unheard of for 18 year old talls to come in and play a significant contribution to premiership teams. Accordingly I am thinking at this stage in the draft they will start thinking outside the square and go for older or delisted players who specifically address their needs. I am going to have them take a ruck and a KPD who I think can come in and play well straight away and play well. It will be interesting to see what they do on the day.

Brock McCauley (Southport, QLD)
Height: 200cm, Weight: 97kg, DOB: 22

With a few teams in need of a ruck McCauley is going to be looked at very closely you would think. He is mature aged and has mature body on him particularly in the lower half which should allow him to bang with AFL rucks from the word go. He is not hugely heavy but he has excellent muscle tone and low skin folds. In a year where there are not many legitimate 200+ options he is one and that alone is going to get him a look in. He got some attention last year but was overlooked and seems to have gone out and worked to address a few things he needed to work on. Playing for the perennial powerhouse of Southport he looked exceptionally good early this year leading the AFLQ medal after the first third of the season and being picked to represent QLD at senior level. He is a specialist ruck who performed well against all comers in the AFLQ including ex-AFL rucks including Jeff White and Trent Noble. He can tap off either hand and has pretty good control with where his taps go. When resting he can go forward and is a good marking target up forward and who take a grab and finish. Always a big kick he seems to have worked on his touch a bit more this year and it seems to have improved. He was invited to State Screening and performed exceptionally well. His jumping was fantastic and his left foot jump was a full 9cm more than the best at Draft Camp (and 33cm more than Butcher and 18cm more than Fitzpatrick). For someone who is already 200cm tall that is pretty scary. He is also exceptionally quick for someone his size and timed quicker than the likes of Fitzpatrick and even Jetta. He also has a reputation of getting around the field well. So all in all you have to believe someone is going to take a chance on him. The one caveat though is this statement that his coach made about him which worries me more than a little and might indicate why he was overlooked – “He is, at times, hard to coach but he has come a fair way from what he was doing last year.”


PICK 40 – GEELONG

With Harley going and the likes of Milburn getting close to the end Geelong could look for a few guys who can do a job at the back and also just as importantly use it well going forward and give some run doing it. There are a few options about now with McAdam being the one I like. Kennedy might also be on the radar here in a similar role.

Charlie McAdam (NT)
Height: 180cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 05/04/90

The son of Gilbert is very underrated on here imo but is also just the kind of guy that could get overlooked on draft day as well. It is always very hard for the NT boys to get noticed and even more so for the 19 year olds. Charlie is a bit of a late developer but has really started to come into his own in the last year and he did very well at the Champs this year. Playing off the half back flank he finished 4th in total disposals with 24 per game, only 7 of which were contested possessions. He is one of those modern run off HBFers who is a very good user of the ball but who also is very dangerous with the ball in hand. He is a very elusive runner who can step and shimmy with the best of them. He is not particularly athletic and did not test particularly well in any discipline at State Screening. What you are getting with Charlie is a footballer with football nous. He has excellent vision, knows who is around him and knows the right players to go to. His family are traditionally late developers and it seems like that is the case with Charlie as well. It is safe to assume that if he is given a chance he will continue to get better and better for a few years to come yet. Played some senior games for the NT in the AFLQ this year and did pretty well picking up a Rising Star nomination.


PICK 41 – NORTH MELBOURNE

With the development of their young backs it is not a desperate need but the Roos could use someone to play in the same way as Gibson did last year. Getting a guy who could play tall or short at the back and provide reasonable run coming out of defense would be very handy. I am going with Kennedy here who could possibly develop into a key position but is more likely as a third tall rebounding type player. He has a lot of talent but has yet to get it all together but North can afford to be patient with him.

Ayden Kennedy (Eastern Ranges, VIC)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 31/10/91

I think I have him too high but can’t be bothered moving him at this stage (his write up is one of my last). Kennedy at the moment is more of an athlete than a footballer and anyone taking him is going to be taking a pretty big risk on him especially when he is really only a utility at the moment and might never develop into a key position. For those reasons I probably should have dropped him down a bit more. What you are getting though is one of the best athletes in this year’s draft. He was the quickest in the 20m sprint (2.88) and was also in the top few in the agility (8.14). His jumping was also right up there particularly off his right. He did not test on the endurance side leaving a few questions unanswered there especially when his repeat sprint results were only middle of the pack. He tends to not play as quick as he tested and his lack of endurance takes the edge off his speed in game situations where even forwards are expected to provide multiple efforts. Despite my observations I do note that Anthony Parkin of Eastern Ranges has said that he has a good tank. He played predominantly up forward in the TAC this year and showed bursts of talent but he was also invisible a lot of the time. He was selected in the Vic Metro side but played only three games and did not have any significant impact. He tends not to be a great read of the play nor of the ball in the air and is often lead to the ball notwithstanding his pace. His hands are pretty good whether overhead or below the knees and whilst I would not put him in the top bracket in either category they good enough for AFL football. I have read his kicking described as neat and this is a good description in my opinion. His technique is pretty good, he hits targets but he doesn’t have great penetration nor is it something with big hurt power. He can be effective as a chase down tackler but he is a little inconsistent in this area as well. At the moment he is probably only a third tall whether up forward or down back and he depending on the team which picks him he might well be classified as a utility and played all over the park. Longer term I see him more as a defender because I just do not see the football smarts and goal kicking ability for him to succeed as a forward. As a close checking backman though he has the tools that could make him very effective. His potential is the reason why he might go higher than his performances probably warrant. He has only been in an elite environment this year and he has improved significantly in that time. When combined with his athletic abilities I think teams will be intrigued.


PICK 42 – GEELONG

With Mumford leaving and Ottens getting toward the end of his career I would expect Geelong to take a ruck at some stage in this draft notwithstanding that they still have a few guys who might do okay. If they took Gawn and combined him with Simpson it would probably be the biggest one two combination in AFL history. Gawn is still pretty rough but Geelong are in a position where they can take the risk and be patient whilst he develops.

Max Gawn (Sandringham Dragons, VIC)
Height: 206cm, Weight: 97kg, DOB: 28/12/91

Played only a handful of games this year before doing his knee from which he is currently recovering. He was selected for Vic Metro before his injury but was unable to play any games. This year he showed considerable development over the games he played at the end of last year but he is still very much a raw prospect. People love the fact that he is 206cm tall but there are one of these types of very raw, very tall prospects every year that people rate through the roof but who are very rarely develop into serviceable ruckmen. People love the idea of what the guy could be and ignore the reality of the player. In this case Gawn is a guy coming off knee surgery who is still learning the game. He does not use his height particularly well in the ruck and was not great with his taps to advantage even against TAC level rucks. He is a low possession guy who although he moves reasonably well does not have the endurance base to contribute much around the ground. He does present pretty well up forward and is at his best standing straight up in the marking contest rather than being on the lead. On the lead he tends to play short. In the wrestling contest he uses his height and long arms much better. He has pretty good hands overhead and averaged a goal a game this year. He has a high drop on his kicks for goal and this could get him into a bit of trouble. Around the ground his kicking is serviceable and he does seem to have a pretty decent feel for his passes. He is certainly not going to be a tall beanpole as he is already solidly built and once he comes into his full growth he would certainly be a handful for even AFL rucks if he pushes forward. Personally though I think the odds of his ever realising the vision a lot of people have for him are pretty long and if he was picked up as a rookie it would not shock me.

PICK 43 – CARLTON

Carlton were already in need of key position help before they traded Fevola and although I rate Henderson very highly (and was exceptionally annoyed that he was thrown into that trade) I think they need some help at both ends of the park. Fitzpatrick is one guy who I do not rate at all but he has a name and will get pick by someone probably higher than he deserves. If he was available here I am sure Carlton would be keen to get him in and see what he can do.

Jack Fitzpatrick (Western Jets, VIC)
Height: 201cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 26/06/91

A lot was expected of Fitzpatrick this year and he was in the first round of most early mocks. Unfortunately for him he has not lived up to the hype. Touted as someone who could play at either end or in the ruck with equal proficiency he has lived up to that but unfortunately he has been uniformly average all over. We were also told that he was 201cm tall but official measurements have seen him come in a couple of centimetres under that height. To me he is more of a basketballer than a footballer. He is very athletic. He has very good pace and showed that at camp with a 2.96 in the 20m and leading all comers in the repeat sprint with 23.91. That is exceptional for someone of his height. On the park he looks like he has a very wide turning circle but in the camp he was okay for someone his size, not great but okay. He performed well in the jumping showing he can certainly get up in the air and if he knew what he was doing he would be hugely difficult to stop. Unfortunately that is the problem – he is not a footballer. His kicking is very hit and miss and his kicking style needs a lot of work. Similarly with his handballing which looks awkward to say the least. He has big hands but cannot hold a mark and when he does get the ball he reads play very poorly. When he gets the ball it can go anywhere. He is thin at the moment and has poor body strength which saw him being a poor ruck even at U18 level. His poor reading of the play affects his ability to play down back and his poor marking affects his ability to play up forward. In short I think he and the team that take him have their work cut out for them to make him an AFL footballer. What is positive though is the amount of work he will do around the ground. He will put in and give a big effort and you are not left doubting his effort. If that translates to being willing to work hard off the park to improve his skills and body strength then you never know. With his height and athletic prowess someone is going to take him and probably earlier than his skill set dictates.


PICK 44 - RICHMOND

The Tigers could use some flash that is backed up by substance and I think Sumner would be a very nice addition to their side. Playing on the wing he uses it well, will contest the hard ball and will work defensively. They do not have that in one package on the wing at the moment.

Byron Sumner (Eagles, SA)
Height: 174cm, Weight: 68kg, DOB: 16/05/91

When I first saw SA this year I was really looking forward to seeing their indig guys play with names like Wanganeen running around. The guy though who was easily the most impressive of those guys was Sumner. He is an outside player with speed, elusiveness and a physical edge to his game. He has that aboriginal flair about him but looks prepared to do the hard work needed to make it at AFL level. He was invited to Camp but could not attend due to him playing in the SANFL reserves grand final. I do not have the SA State Screening results but I did read somewhere that he went over 15 in the Beep Test. He is very much a receiver who sits just outside packs and gets the ball from the inside guys and who will occasionally flash through to collect the ball. Under pressure he has nice quick hands and seems to have pretty good awareness of what is happening around him. He is a left footer with good penetration and although his kicking needs to be flattened out a bit he does have nice feel on his kicks and hits his targets well. He does have a tendency to go long with his kicks a little too much and he needs to bring his eyes down a bit and hit the intermediate distance targets. He works very hard both ways on the park and he gets to space well. He had a great game against Vic Metro at the Champs but did have a few quiet games and only averaged 13.6 disposals a game which was a bit disappointing. He is not a big tackler but when he gets hold of someone he likes to finish it and make sure the opposition player knows he has been tackled. He is listed at only 68kgs but I would be surprised if he was not closer to 78 than 68. He is reasonable overhead but at only 175 he is likely to struggle a bit in this regard against your typical AFL players. Still with his endurance and flair I think you could do a lot worse than give him a serious look.

PICK 45 – ADELAIDE

After delisting Shirley the Crows could use a tagger and one who can win his own ball on a consistent basis would be very handy. He probably needs a year in the SANFL to work a few of the edges off but he could end up a very nice player for the Crows. I think Ah Chee seems like he will be picked up in the third round at best and teams picking around here could certainly do a lot worse than snap him up.

Roland Ah Chee (NT)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 21/11/90

The fact that he was not invited to Camp surprised me a lot. This is a kid who lead the Champs in disposals and is very athletic to top it off and he can’t even get a Guernsey to Camp. What more does a kid have to do? Play for Victoria I think the answer to that question is. Anyway why is he not more highly regarded? Well the main reason I think is likely to be his disposal. To put it succinctly his kicking is agricultural at best. I haven’t seen him at all apart from the Champs so this could also be a bit of a function of the side he played in but he basically just chucked it on his boot at every opportunity and pumped it long. There was very little regard for where it was going and tends to just kick it without looking up, finding a target and then kicking. Style wise he is also very rough around the edges. His ball drop is all over the shop especially when he is a bit off balance or rushed. There is some evidence that he has been working on his kicking and this is evident a bit more when he has time to gather himself and apparently he has improved a lot in the last year or so. So yes there are a few things that need to be worked on but so does Scully as well and this is the kid that beat him for most possessions at the Champs. He is a ball magnet make no mistake and he can find it inside and out. He can run all day and just continually moves to space. He does not look all that smooth running style wise but he covers a lot of territory. He tends not to get many contested marks because he does move so well but he does get a few and he is strong in the air and maintains position well when challenged on the ground or in the air. His hands are pretty good, in the air or on the ground. After he was snubbed for Camp he went to the SA State Screening and set it alight with a great performance where he excelled across the board. He ran well over 15 in the beep, 3 flat in the 20m and was in the top few in State Screenings across Australia in the agility and all the jumps. He also measured with very long arms and big hands. Its hard to imagine someone doing better across the board. I think he finds himself in a very similar position to that which Joseph found himself in a couple of years ago. Hopefully teams (Brisbane hopefully) learn their lesson and don’t let him fall through to the rookie draft. Given how raw his skills are he is likely to start life as a tagger and with his physical gifts he could be a damn good one just the way Joseph was this year.


PICK 46 – HAWTHORN

There quite a lot of key position guys who are going to be available around here and there is not much to separate them from each other. I have gone with Donaldson because he has very nice height and speed but I could just have gone a number of other ways. Can play at either end but with the Hawks he will be groomed for a spot down back.

Joshua Donaldson (West Perth, WA)
Height: 195cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 04/05/91

He played mostly as a ruck this year but despite growing a bit in the last 12 months he does not have the height to play there in the AFL. He has played a bit up forward and down back and overall has been solid but not spectacular. Whilst he will occasionally take a contested mark I do not think he has the hands or the nous to play up forward in the AFL. I would be sticking him at the back and giving him a job to follow someone around and his natural athleticism I think will serve him well. He performed well at Camp measuring in taller than advertised with very long arms. His right foot jump was very good (7th I think) but his two feet and left foot jumps were not very good. He has 3 second speed and exceptionally good agility for a big man but his endurance needs quite a bit of work. Playing as a ruck he has shown a nice leap and very quick recovery ability, keeping himself in the contest and making plays. He holds his feet well in contests and rarely goes to ground. His ability to read the play is not a strength and is another reason why I would put him behind the ball in a close checking role. When he gets the ball he has pretty good awareness of where people are around him and usually takes pretty good options. He hardly gets any of the ball though so it is a pretty small sample I am going from here. He is very right footed and with a style of swinging out a bit to kick on his right he is often very challenged going to his left. This is definitely something which needs to be ironed out when he gets to the big league. With that said though he has excellent penetration on his kicks and seems to have a good feel for his passes. His has a nice balanced approach when kicking for goal and his technique actually looks a lot better when taking a set shot. He likes throwing his body around and looks like he will have a powerful physique when he finishes developing and after spending a few preseasons in the gym. He is not a big tackler but when he gets his hands on an opposition player he certainly makes his presence. He has an aggressive approach in the ruck which I am sure will appeal to teams. Overall I see him as a very good full back prospect who is probably a couple of years away from making a significant contribution to an AFL team.


PICK 47 – BRISBANE

Brisbane will take a small forward at some stage of this draft, you can bet your house on it. Weedon seems like a likely type although I would like him to be a bit quicker and better defensively but you can’t argue with his talent.

Garrick Weedon
Height: 183cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 25/05/91

An indigenous guy who is rated very highly by some and not at all by others. I am a bit in between and whilst I see talent there I am a bit unsure about him for some reason. He is a Broome boy who played for Claremont this year and attracted a bit of attention. He is one of those laconic indigenous players who seems to be going at half pace whilst everyone else is going full bore. It looks like he has time when ever he gets the ball and that is a fantastic skill in itself. He has played mostly as a half forward this year and he is very dangerous up there. He is very confident in himself and what he can do and pulls out a bit of magic every now and then. He is a very solid guy with a bit of puppy fat on him who is powerful through the legs and has a nice low centre of gravity. He is strong in the contest, has good balance and holds his feet well. When the ball hits the ground he is very good and is a player who can come in at pace, scoop the ball and keep going without breaking stride. Overhead he is rated highly by his coach and from what I have seen he looks pretty good in this regard although I am not sure he would be a big leaping contesting mark type player. He tends to judge his arrival at the ball to best advantage and is strong enough to keep the opposition player away. His kicking is reasonable and neither a particular strength nor a particular liability. He does tend to kick it long to contests a little too much and he needs to lower his eyes a bit. He is not a run down threat up forward and his defensive effort generally needs some work. There seems to be consensus that he can move into the midfield and his ability to read the ball off hands would suggest that this could well be on the cards. He has very good ability to hold his feet in the tackle and clear his hands which should hold him in good stead if he goes to the middle. He will need to work on his athleticism though no matter where he plays. At this stage he looks like someone who has played solely on natural talent and has never done any specialist sprint, endurance or jumping work. His endurance was poor at Camp and I can see a lot of pain for him getting this up to AFL standard. His agility was pretty good and his pace average. Off his right he is good but off his left and off two feet he was pretty poor. Overall I think this is a kid who has a lot of talent and one who has shown a lot of development this year and yet seems to have hardly have scratched the surface. You have to think one club at least will take a punt on him given he has a bit of the Motlops about him.


PICK 48 – FREMANTLE

With Tarrant close to the end and very little else in the cupboard key position defender wise, Freo has to start looking to restock. There are likely to be a number of options available here all with significant flaws. I have gone for Reid over a few other options mainly on his running ability. If nothing else I think he will be a good negating defender and as a starting point that is pretty solid.

Sam Reid (Murray Bushrangers, VIC)
Height: 194cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 27/12/91

Reid is another guy who is all athletic potential and very little performance to date. He is the kind of guy who often excites us amateurs with his test scores but who the professionals overlook because he does not really know how to play the game. It is very possible that Reid could go anywhere from the 2nd round to the rookie draft. He has been tried in a lot of positions this year for the Bushrangers but has not been a stand out anywhere. Similarly at the Championships where he was invisible. In the AFL I can only see him playing at the back as a negating key position. So why is he a chance to be taken in the second round? Well its all about athletic potential. He is a very nice size for a KPD and when you combine that with elite athleticism teams will be thinking about what they can turn him into. His 2.92 in the 20m and 14.7 in the beep show that he has the all around running ability for teams to work with. He also tested very well for agility and in the jumps and measured with very long arms. What he has shown to date is that he is hard to beat in the air and he has reasonable hands himself. He is not a guy who shows particular poise in the air though. His kicking is serviceable and when played in defence his opponents have found him a very difficult prospect most particularly on the lead. He needs to improve his strength and when he has been beaten it has usually been in a body on body situation. He has shown virtually no run off ability though and he finds it very hard to get his hands on the ball. When in defence he tends to focus almost exclusively on his player and does not work once the ball starts to come back the other way. With the ball in hand he is pretty good but he doesn’t do it often enough. He has improved a fair bit this year and someone is going to fall in love with his potential and take him.


PICK 49 – FREMANTLE

Freo usually like to take as much WA talent as they can and if Winmar fell to them here I am sure they would look very closely at him. He would be an excellent HBF option for them I think and certainly give them better disposal from that position then they received this year.

Nicholas Winmar (Claremont, WA)
Height: 189cm, Weight: 77kg, Weight: 27/04/91

You look at this kids highlights package and you think he has top 20 written all over him and in this draft you never know he might well be taken there. Personally though I have him at the bottom of the 3rd round because he just doesn’t get enough of it and there are significant questions about whether he will ever have the tank to play AFL football. Take his tank out of the equation though and there is a whole hell of a lot to like. First up he has very nice height for a wingman coming in just under 190 and he uses that height pretty well. He is a pretty good mark for a midfielder and doesn’t mind going into contested situations. Skills wise he is good whether by hand or by foot and his awareness whether pressured or out in the open is first class. He takes good options and is one of those guys who rarely looks rushed even when players are bearing down on him. His kicking is a huge asset and he would be close to the biggest kick in this draft. I see him starting career off half back and teams using him to kick over forward pressure. He is excellent at picking out targets at the extent of his range and he weights his passes nicely. He is predominantly an outside player but he doesn’t mind getting his hands dirty and will tackle, shepherd and spoil and do all the other things that coaches like to see. His defensive pressure is good and he does not shirk this side of the game. He is capable of winning his own ball inside but this is not a strength of his. He is reasonably evasive when he is out and running but he is not really a big runner with the ball in hand. He is rarely caught when he is up and going though. When the ball hits the deck he is very good and is one of those one touch guys who rarely fumbles even when they are going full tilt and picking up the ball from their toes. For a wingman he is not a goal kicker and tends to play more in the defensive half of the field. For his talent though he should be getting more than the 12.8 disposals per game he got in the Champs. He has high hurt factor with his possessions but as mentioned he needs to get more of them. His Camp results were singularly uninspiring with him finishing in the bottom 25% in the jumps, agility, beep and 3km and only average in the sprints. The agility scores were the surprise as I had thought he would test better than that. The speed was reasonable and there is enough there for teams to work with. Endurance as mentioned is something that has been an issue for him for a while and I am sure that teams would have expected there to have been more of an improvement from him in this area over the last year. He was eligible last year and one of the reasons he was overlooked was because of his abysmal beep test last year. He was a bit better this year but still not good enough imo. Anyone a nice talent but one with some question marks about. Just about what you would expect for a third rounder.

 

[Quigley]

4th Round

Pick 50 - Melbourne

Davies is the kind of diligent, hard working player who I think teams at the bottom need. They are motivated to succeed and appreciate the chances that they are given. I would expect Grimes to move up more into the midfield this year and Davies could slot in down back. Physically he is right to play sooner rather than later.

Marcus Davies (Tassie Mariners, TAS)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 84kg, Weight: 04/06/91

The Tasmanian guys tend to be overlooked a fair bit on BF for some reason (and on draft day for that matter) so I like to plug guys when I can. I can’t understand though why Davies is not in more people’s mock drafts. Playing off half back this is another of the run all day guys who refuses to be outworked. He did a 15.08 in the beep test at camp which was second overall. One of the things he will really need to work on when he gets to the AFL is his explosiveness and pace off the mark. At the moment, despite have nice top end speed he gives away too much in the first few steps. Guys are able to get separation on him too easily and AFL players will take advantage of that. Given that speed is there though I think he might be able to improve this with the specialist work he is likely to have access to at AFL level. Overall defensively he can be a bit inconsistent and some days he can look great whilst at others second rate. I think he has the potential to be able to make life very difficult for his AFL match up and hurt them a lot going the other way. He played loose a fair bit this year in the Champs playing a sweeper type role mopping up at the back. He used his running ability to great effect in this role averaging a very nice 20.2 possessions a game. AFL teams will like the fact that he is not just an outside player but can go in and win his own ball. He has very nice height for small – medium backman and is very capable overhead. He is courageous and does not mind throwing himself around and is a pretty effective tackler. I do not see him as a midfield prospect as I do not think he has the kind of clean hands below the knees and awareness in traffic that you really need to succeed as a full time midfielder. The biggest knock against Davies has been his kicking but he has improved this a great deal this year and there is no reason why this could not continue to improve. Whilst last year he was very much a kick it long and hope sort of player this year he has worked at finding the short and mid range targets more. He has also worked very hard on his technique which has also improved quite a bit. He has pretty good penetration on his kicks. This is a very diligent kid who is motivated to succeed and he has some assets that should allow him to do so.


PICK 51 – RICHMOND

I originally had Delborrello slotted in here but with him deciding to focus on cricket I had to changed tack. Cowen will provide good run and carry for whichever team takes him. Outside HBFers with not great disposal skills may sound familiar to Richmond supporters but he is an interesting prospect that might well significantly higher than this.

Josh Cowan (North Ballarat, VIC)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 72kg, DOB: 16/03/91

There has been some talk of Cowan going much higher than this but I struggle to see it myself given he was hardly a standout out at the Champs and with his broken wrist he missed the chance to shine at the end of the season. That said he did turn up for Camp in very good shape and his trademark endurance was there for all to see (14.92 in the beep and 10.14 in the 3km). His speed is a bit of an issue and his times off the mark were very slow. Once he gets up and going he is fine and his repeat sprint (30m) times rated much higher than his 20m times. Cowan is a very outside player at the moment who plays predominantly off half back with occasional stints up onto the wing. He stands out from the pack a lot with his run and carry. He is only light but likes to take the game on and he provides very nice run from the back. He reads the game very well, cuts out balls and picks good times to run with the ball. His marking is good and he averaged 6 marks a game in the TAC. Once he gets the ball he is composed with it and makes good decisions. He improved his kicking a lot between last year and this and although I think it still needs to improve a bit it is now pretty reasonable and indications are that it could improve further. He also needs to get better at winning the contested ball. As mentioned he is very much an outside player at the moment and not many of his 20 possessions a game in the TAC came from contests. In successful modern football even the outside guys need to be able to go in and win their own ball on occasions. He does have a reputation as a very hard worker though and is apparently very coachable so he will take on board feedback and do what is needed to improve. He also needs quite a bit of time in the gym as he is still very light. He does like to throw what little weight he has around though and is a good tackler for his size.


PICK 52 – FREMANTLE

It is getting to the stage where Freo usually like to take locals and Hutchings fits nicely into that category. He is not a flashy player but his leadership skills and tenacious, hard at it attitude would be a real positive for a team looking to overcome culture problems. At worst he offers a nice back up to Crowley.

Mark Hutchings (East Perth, WA)
Height: 181cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 25/05/91

Another player who could go anywhere from the second round to not at all. Hutchings is an inside mid and was one of the number of good midfielders that WA was able to throw at their opposition this year. He is a footballer first and foremost and there is not a lot of flash about his game. Inside he has fairly quick hands and pretty good vision but I don’t think he reads the play or the ball off hands as well as other inside mids who I have rated ahead of him. I think in the AFL he maybe likely to play as a tagger who is capable of winning his own ball once he gets to the contest. He was used in this role in the WAFL games he played this year. Playing as a tagger he could be lead to the dangerous spots which I don’t think he gets to often enough now especially for a guy who is an elite runner. He can run all day and is a very tenacious and disciplined player who is more than willing to do the team thing. He does what is needed to win games and won’t be outworked. He is a leader who gets the best out of those around him. By foot he is pretty reasonable but can miss targets occasionally and he generally lacks penetration. One of his other big question marks is his pace and at camp he did test fairly poorly in this regard. The problem appears to be mostly pace off the mark more than top end speed and he was noticeably better over the slightly longer 30m repeat sprint. He tested better for agility at the Camp than I expected and being in the top 25% in this would have surprised many I believe. He tested very well in the endurance tests though which was not a surprise. As mentioned his biggest strength is the ability to run all day but it is poignant to note that at the Champs he averaged only 16.6 disposals and 1.8 clearances per game. For the type of player he is I would have liked to see more in both of those categories. He did however average 5.8 tackles (second best) per game which emphasises the defensive aspects of his game.


PICK 53 – NORTH MELBOURNE

North’s forwards really underperformed this year both the bigs and the smalls and a small physical presence in their would not go astray. Fowler is a pretty good prospect that could come in and play early for them.

Matthew Fowler (Western Magpies, QLD)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 18 years old

Was Queensland’s best forward and probably most consistent player at that Champs this year and would have to be a read chance of being drafted. He played predominantly as a lead up forward for the Gold Coast and Queensland but is capable of playing through the midfield with good effect. He is one of the better small – med lead up forwards available this year. He is exceptionally good overhead and teams virtually have to put a taller player on him. He is also deceptively quick and I think it is easy for his opposition to underestimate how quick he is. He creates good separation within a step or two and has enough pace to hold the game. He also has a powerful body and can wrestle and hold position well. When he gets the ball he is a long accurate kick for goal at least usually. In the game against NT this year he had an off day kicking only 1 goal 4 behinds but he did have 23 possessions and 14 marks to go along with it. In his 4 games for the Champs he averaged 15 possessions and 7 marks (the best in the Champs) per game and kicked 8 goals and 9 behinds in total. He was not invited to Camp but attended State Screening where he tested solidly and well for speed. Around the ground Fowler is a very nice kick and his delivery inside 50 is first rate. He gets a bit of the ball for a lead up forward and he is more than capable of winning his own ball. He chases pretty well up forward but does not get a lot of tackles. When he does though he usually makes them felt. He needs to work on his endurance base I think if he is going to be able to step up at the next level. As a crumber he is not bad and he works hard to recover and get to the best position when the big guys fly.


PICK 54 – SYDNEY

Not your typical pick for Sydney but if they want to get the best out of their couple of years with Bradshaw they probably need to move out of their comfort zone a little. Barlow could play a similar role to O’Keefe and it was clear last year that Sydney need a few more runners of the calibre of O’Keefe and Barlow is that if nothing else. I think this would be a very nice get for Sydney here.

Mick Barlow (Werribee Tigers, VIC)
Height: 189cm, Weight: 92kg, DOB: 21 years old

Surely will be given a chance this year after being the runner up in the JJ Liston, winning the Fothergill Medal in the VFL and smashing the Werribee B&F. 4 of the last 5 winners of the Fothergill have gone on to play AFL (Firrito, Aaron Davey, Valenti and Nahas) and everything about Barlow screams that he can play at the AFL level and do it well. He is only 21 and it is not like things have passed him by and there is no potential for improvement. He has been at Werribee for only two years training on a semi-professional basis whilst attending Uni. He is a ball magnet averaging over 30 possessions a game this year in the VFL and is quite simply a running machine capable of getting the ball at will. When he gets the ball he also uses it well displaying very nice skills. This is not just a runner who can’t hit the side of a barn. He has a lot of football smarts about him and works to the right spots and takes pretty good options once he gets the ball. He started off playing as a half forward flanker and that is where he is likely to start in the AFL but he has played some midfield this year for Werribee and even some CHF which he is able to do in the VFL given his height. For a running player he has very nice height and combine that with his running ability and you have once guy very difficult to match up on. Defensively he has shown an ability to keep an opposition quiet and with his running ability he could well start his career as a tagger who can hurt his player going the other way. He tested at the Vic State Screening and did particularly well going at 15 in the beep test (that was expected) and 2.89 in the 20m (this was definitely not expected). I have seen it reported that he lacks a yard or two of pace but the stop watch seems to be saying something else. Provided the 20m time was not a mistake there is certainly plenty of pace to work with there and a team could feel very comfortable looking at ways to bring his pace more into his game. His agility test was not great and neither were his one foot jumps although he was pretty good off two feet. There has been pretty solid talk of Barlow getting picked up by someone since the middle of the year and I am pretty sure someone will take him. Lets face facts he has done everything anyone could possibly ask of him and is in reality banging down the AFL door. If he does not get selected more than a few Vic based scouts should take a long hard look at themselves.

PICK 55 – WEST COAST

Tossing up here between Florio and Luff and at the end of the day went with Florio because of the quality of his disposal. His kicking is pretty much as good as anyone in this draft and West Coast are sorely in need of some help in this regard. They are also a little one paced and with Florio being very quick he helps in this regard as well.

Michael Florio (Perth, WA)
Height: 190cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 17/10/91

With his package of kicking skills and athletic talent Florio could go anywhere in this draft from the second round on. I could easily see a team loving the idea of what he could become and reaching to take him in the second round. Florio has been rated by a few watchers as the best kick in the WAFL Colts and this might be close to the mark. He is long and accurate and is excellent at picking out targets at short, medium and long range. He does like to bomb away a bit on his kicks and it is a weapon he does perhaps like to use a little too much. He plays on the wing and is a very outside player who plays a bit one way at the moment. He rarely goes into contests preferring to receive and he does not work nearly as hard defensively as he does offensively. His tackling needs work and he is brushed too easily at the moment even when he does get to the man. At the moment he tends not to do the team things and I am sure this will be hammered out of him at the next level where he will be expected to put his body on the line, shepherd, block and smother when it is his turn. He is pretty tall for a wingman but does not really play his height at the moment tending to play a little hunched over. Okay that is quite a few negatives there but he also offers a lot of positives. He has exceptional athletic ability testing at 2.93 in the 20m and 14.7 in the beep at the WA State Screening. His agility tests were very good also apparently although the results I have seen must have a typo in them (probably a 9 has been inserted instead of an 8). He has excellent height for a wingman, long arms and big hands. His jump is pretty poor but given his position and other physical attributes I do not see this as any sort of issue. He likes to get out and run and he is very difficult to catch when he gets into space. When you combine that with his superb kicking skills he has huge X factor with the ball in hand. He likes a goal but has not really been a goal scorer this year for some reason. He was selected in the WAFL Colts team of the year on the wing. If you miss out on Rohan and Jetta in the first round this is a guy you can pick up later in the draft and is someone who has the same kind of potential. He has huge steal potential.


PICK 56 – GEELONG

Geelong are pretty partial to taking Falcons players and I am sure if Dare is here on the day they will take him. He would offer them a great backup for when Milburn retires at the end of the year. He style suits perfectly what they try to do coming out of defence. So much so that I could easily see them choosing him with one of their earlier picks.

Joseph Dare (Geelong Falcons, VIC)
Height: 190cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 17/10/91

He could end up a steal if he was taken here but equally he might struggle to compete athletically at the next level. He was a stand out in the TAC especially in the second half of the year and I will freely admit he has been very late coming onto my radar. Pace is probably the biggest question mark for him as kindly pointed out by his brother when Joe was being interviewed at Camp when he said something along the lines of “pace, what pace he ain’t got any”. He did not test at camp so it is a little hard for me to say exactly how much of an issue it is. On the field I do not think he looks slow and that might well because he reads the play so well. He tends to react a bit quicker than those around him and knows where the ball is going. Defensively he played on a variety of types this year and generally did very well. His skills and decision making coming out of defence though are probably what is going to get him picked. He is guy who is very composed when he gets the ball and tends not to be rushed. He evaluates the situation very well and then takes the right option that sets his team up and going. He is a good kick and he hits targets consistently. His has good penetration on his kicking. I haven’t seen anything to indicate that he is a likely midfield prospect and I think he is going to be firmly entrenched in a backline as soon as he hits an AFL team. He is very much a late developer and is a kid for whom the AFL was never really an option up until this year. He was never the best guy in his team prior to this year but a 10cm growth spurt in 6 months last year (he has grown a further couple this year) has seen him become a very interesting prospect. At 190 he has excellent height for a flanker and some ability to play on a third tall if necessary. He is still pretty rangy but he looks like he will be a pretty solid guy but the time things finish. He is a country boy who quit school last year to work on the farm. He is VERY laid back and down to earth but by all accounts is not afraid of hard work. With the late development teams might well be thinking that there is a fair bit of improvement left in him given he has not been in an elite program for very long. Game style wise I have heard him compared Darren Milburn and that seems as good a comparison as any I think.


PICK 57 – HAWTHORN

I sure it is no surprise to anyone when I say that the Hawks need some KPD help and given that they are in their window now they can’t really afford to wait for an 18 year old to develop. They have been linked to Coad for a couple of years now and he is well worth a shot low in the draft. Even if he is only serviceable against the bigboys he is better than anyone trotted out this year.

Michael Coad (Sturt, SA)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 91kg, DOB: 26 years old

Has been on the Hawthorn radar for a couple of years and might finally get his chance this year although he might prefer to come on board as a mature aged rookie where the Hawks are no restricted in what they can pay him. The Hawks had him lined up last year and he was training with them but there was a stuff up with the paper work and he did not get his nomination in in time. This year there has been no mistake though and he has nominated. He has been a bit of a utility in the SANFL over the last couple of years playing key position forward and back as well as time in the ruck and even out on the wing. He is projected as a KPD in the AFL and most people who have seen him project him to be serviceable at least. The player I have heard him compared to Nathan Bock and I think that is a pretty good comparison. He is not a huge guy but is big enough and with a mature body and strength he can come in and play right away for a team in need of help at the back. The area that he might struggle with with AFL players is their speed. He is not the quickest guy going around and an AFL forward gets the jump on him he is not likely to be making up ground. He does have good endurance though and a reasonable jump and I do think he will be able to do the job. Like Bock he is usually pretty good defensively but can shine rebounding out of the 50. He has a big leg on him and can kick it 55m to targets over modern forward pressure which is going to appeal to a few teams at least you would think. He is also capable of lasering the ball into targets over medium distances. He seems to be a good judge of the ball in flight and gets to the right spots at the right times. When he gets the ball he also takes consistently good options. He can be prone to lapses of concentration and can occasionally get exposed at the back when this happens. He needs to keep focus when playing at the big boys. When he plays up forward he is a solid lead up kind of player with good hands capable of taking a very nice contested mark. He is often a very good mark in traffic seeming to read the flight just that little bit better than his opposition. He is a very straight shot for goal and the length of his kick makes him even more dangerous. He is a couple of years removed now from his knee reconstruction and seems to be back to full strength. He has been one of the best players in the SANFL over the last two years and deserves a shot at the big leagues. For the old time Brisbane supporters out there he reminds me a little of Danny Dickfos although he may convert his game a little better to the AFL.


PICK 58 – HAWTHORN

I am throwing the Hawks another slightly older KPD prospect here mainly because they could still use on. Tapp has excellent height, good speed and defensive capabilities and is another guy who could play sooner rather than later.

Shaun Tapp (Aspley, QLD)
Height: 196cm, Weight: 95kg, DOB: 19/12/88

Tapp is a big mobile CHF who has been working away in the background for a couple of years. This year after an interrupted preseason he took a few games to get his fitness up before having another very good year in which he was virtually never out of the best for his club. He has very nice height and is a natural defender who you can rely on to come in and do a job. He does not provide a huge amount in run off and possessions but he is a very capable shut down defender. He dominated in the U21s game against the Victorian amateur team winning the medal for the best on the ground. He would have gotten a fair bit of attention that day from the scouts present, taking some very nice marks and destroying the forwards he was matched up on. He has very nice height for a CHB and has the speed to go with most forwards running around. He also has a very nice leap which tested well at State Screening so combined with his height there are not going to be many who are going to be further up in the air. He did not test particularly well for endurance but on the park he is a guy that gives you his all and he has not been found out to date at the levels he has been playing. That will change at AFL level and this is something which he will need to work hard on but moving to a full time environment I am sure would help him with that immensely. Skills wise he is pretty solid.


PICK 59 – ST KILDA

The Saints don’t have any urgent needs and could go with a high risk high reward type here. Instead of that I have them going with a guy who is just a good all around footballer who if he weren’t injured might be able to step in and do a job for them next year. Gordon could play the X Clarke role if he was asked to and probably do it pretty well.

Deon Gordon (NT Thunder, NT)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 02/04/91

Gordon is probably 50/50 to get drafted and could well be overlooked because of the ACL injury he suffered in August. For a guy who was by no means assured of selection before that that was a pretty big blow. I have a bit of a soft spot for the NT guys so I am throwing him in and hoping a team picks him up with an eye to the future. Gordon compares himself to David Wirrpanda and that is not a bad description both in playing style and body type. Wirrpanda is probably harder at the ball than Gordon at the moment but his contested ball winning abilities have certainly improved this year. He plays mostly as a small backman either in a pocket or on a flank and is a very good judge of the flight of the ball coming in. He zones off regularly and is not afraid to leave his man to try and cut out balls. He can get burnt and I would not call him a shut down defender by any means although again he has improved in this area this year and has the potential and tools to turn himself into a very good defensive player. He is good in the air and with the ball on the ground and is a clean player able to make difficult things look easy. His kicking is a feature of his game and he has definite hurt factor with the ball in hand. He likes to run off and he positions himself well to receive the ball from team mates. When he gets the ball he reads what is happening well around him and makes good decisions. He has good awareness of those around him and is very poised under pressure. He is apparently pretty good around goals but I have not seen him play in that role myself. Despite his ACL injury he was invited to Camp (a good sign) but obviously he did not test. He is a big bodied guy who needs to tone up a bit but has good strength. His pace seems reasonable as does his endurance although both need to improve to make it at the next level. He was a scholarship holder at the NT Institute of Sport and by all accounts is a good guy who interviews well compared to a lot of the indig guys. He played seniors for the NT in the AFLQ this year winning a Rising Star nomination and getting points in the medal. He was also a very good performer at the Champs averaging over 20 possessions per game. There is a lot of upside in Gordon and if someone doesn’t take him he would be a bargain as a rookie.


PICK 60 – ADELAIDE

Andrew Hooper (North Ballarat Rebels, VIC)
Height: 172cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 18/01/91

Hooper had a great Championships and ended up being named the best player winning the Larke Medal playing mainly off half back for Vic Country. The problem for him is that he is too short to play that role in the AFL I think. At 172 he is going to be a liability against smart AFL forwards who are 10cm taller and more athletic. He is strong overhead but is not a big leap and combined with his height it is a recipe for disaster. He does have pretty good midfield ability but his endurance at the moment prevents him from playing there for long stints. Although he did most tests at camp he was inhibited by a calf strain and did not do the beep test and although he did the 3km poorly. Teams would have wanted him to stand up in these areas as they need him to show he has the ability to develop into a full time midfielder. He is a smart footballer who gets to good spots, gets the ball and then uses it well. He has good clean hands above his head and below the knees. He is a right footer and has a long penetrating and accurate kick. His left is serviceable. He is a good reader of the play and gets the ball to the right people. He has good hurt factor when he has the ball. He is very hard at it and you are never going to die wondering where Hooper is concerned. He is short to the ground and strong but is very quick as well. He ran a 2.90 at Camp which put him in the top 3. He uses his pace very well in game situations. He closes quickly to tackle and accelerates when he gets the ball away from his opposition. He is not a big run and carry guy but when he does he is usually very effective. This is a guy who has done everything he possibly can to get himself drafted and I hope he does. His attitude will be a asset to any team of which he is a part.


PICK 61 – COLLINGWOOD

Its been widely reported that Collingwood consider that they need some inside help and the sooner the better. Going for Sewell not only gives them inside help but also a player who can come in and play right away.

Myles Sewell (North Ballarat, VIC)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 77kg, DOB: 21 years old

Sewell won the JJ Liston Trophy this year and with quite a few teams in need of inside help you have to think more than a couple of teams will have him on their radars and I would not be surprised if he went significantly higher than here. Some time ago his coach has said that 4 teams apparently have made enquiries about him and I would be surprised if that number has not gone up (personally I am hoping that Brisbane is one of them). He has developed into an tenacious, inside mid in the mould of his brother and Sam Mitchell. Both of those guys were also late developers and did things the hard way and Myles is going down that route as well. He has been in the VFL for the last 3 years and played as a tagger (like his brother) for the first two of those. This year he improved his running and skills and was freed up from his tagging responsibilities and he flourished. He significantly improved his outside game and got many more cheap possessions than he had done previously. He remained very hard at it and an excellent in and under ball winner but the outside work really makes him a much more appealing prospect. He averaged 27 possessions a game. The biggest issue with him might be that he lacks a yard or two of pace but with an inside mid I think you can get away with that. He is a little slower than his brother and at this stage does not have as good an endurance base. His endurance though is good and I would expect his endurance to be first class once he gets into a full time AFL environment. Skills wise I think he improved this year but they are still a little below what you would hope for but again using his brother as an example I think there is no reason why they could not be improved significantly with greater time and focus put into them. He has reasonable penetration on his kicking and his in tight work is good. His vision and awareness around the packs is good and his hands are pretty quick. He continued to improve as the year went on and finished the year very strongly. I think this guy could step in and play AFL next year and play it pretty well and he could have significant improvement left in him. He is a lot lower risk than most of the 18 year olds that are going to be available around here and you know that his hunger is strong.


PICK 62 – WESTERN BULLDOGS

It should not be a shock if the Bulldogs take a few key position prospects in this draft and whilst their lack of forward gets a lot of attention the cupboard does not have much in the way of key defenders either. Grimes is a guy who is a pure defender who will do a job and do it well. The Bulldogs have plenty of run off guys and having someone who can shut down a dangerous opposition key forward.

Dylan Grimes (Northern Knights, VIC)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 16/07/91

Grimes is one of the best shut down defenders in this draft and that is a skill which teams can build around. What he is not is a rebounding, run off defender who is going to provide an option coming out of defence. He does not seem to even try to get involved and I am not sure whether he just does not have the instincts about where to get to to receive the ball. When he does get the ball his disposal skills seem okay and his technique is solid. He does not have an attacking mindset though and usually takes the obvious option rather than necessarily the best one. He is not a particularly good mark of the ball and I can see him being a big exponent of the punch at the next level. He is a too light at the moment and is likely to start his career as a third tall and it will be interesting to see if he can develop into a key position (I think he can). He does not have a particularly big frame and whilst he is pretty strong for his size he might well struggle against the physical AFL forwards. He has a little less than ideal height and combined that with fairly poor jumping ability he might struggle with the taller AFL forwards as well. He does tend to be a pretty smart defender though and is intensely competitive and that sees him rarely beaten. He has excellent closing speed and good agility and those allow him to cover leads and recover quickly. That speed and agility also allows him to play comfortably on smalls as well as talls. His endurance is also good for a key position although I am sure that will be worked on at AFL level. His strength is also something which will be given a lot of attention. Personally I quite like Grimes and would feel comfortable taking him. I would also be more comfortable giving him a game early knowing that he can do a job for me rather than playing someone who might offer more offensively but lacks defensive instincts. I think it is easier teach someone about where to run to to receive rather than teaching someone how to shut down a tricky forward.


PICK 63 – ST KILDA

Planning for down the track I think the Saints could use another ruck on their list and taking one at this stage is a pretty low risk sort of proposition. I am going with Tom Hill who disappointed me a bit this year but he is reasonable value here. He could play back up ruck for the Saints behind McEvoy and also give them another target up forward.

Tom Hill
Height: 200cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 07/04/91

I had high hopes for Hill last year taking him in the phantom around the 40 mark from memory and he was overlooked. I thought he would ideally suit a team with a dominant ruck and I had high hopes for him as an around the ground ruckman who could double as a dangerous forward option. He is a similar style of player to Mitch Clark and he has a lot of potential. Putting that potential into practice is the issue. He has a lot of injury issues and rarely seems to be 100%. He also did not show anywhere near the improvement I would have been hoping for this year. As a consequence he is now a marginal prospect in real danger of being overlooked again. He was invited to Camp and had some interesting results. He was one of only two guys to measure over 200cm but also had fairly short arms. Consistent with the way he plays he performed well in the jumps and excellent in the agility test for a guy his size. His endurance testing was at the lower end but it was his speed tests that held my interest. He tested as very quick off the mark with there being very few quicker than him over 5 metres but his top end speed was poor. From 5 metres to 20 metres there were not many slower than he was and similarly his repeat sprint results were not good. On the park Hill looks like a guy with good pace but after the first few steps this is not the case. Still at 200cm and with a good leap he has the weapons to cause AFL backman issues. He has predominantly been a forward in his junior career and he is a can take a nice mark and he is a good shot for goal. His kicking in general is good and his hand skills are also pretty good. He recovers quickly and stays in the contest. He needs to work on his body but he has a pretty good frame that should fill out nicely. For me though I think his best bet is to make himself into a true ruckman who can go forward. He has a much better opportunity to succeed in that role and his forward ability would be a very nice compliment. At this stage in the draft Hill is a pretty low risk high reward type of selection that could make you look very clever in taking him and you lose very little if he doesn’t work out.

 

[Quigley]

PICK 64 – MELBOURNE

Melbourne could use a third tall rebounding defender and although Roberton is more of a medium defender at the moment I think he might develop into that type of player if a team focused on that side of his game. The ability to play on talls and shorts would be very handy for the Demons.

Dylan Roberton (Dandenong Stingrays)
Height: 191cm, Weight: 81kg, DOB: 21/6/91

Roberton will get a fair bit of attention from teams because as a 191 HBFer (he has grown a bit this year as well) he has the ability to play on both talls and shorts. Teams are always looking for someone who can fill a third tall role whilst having the ability to go to small / mediums depending on match ups. Roberton has come from the clouds a bit this year and has improved a great deal from where he was last year. He has been much more focused on the defensive side of his game and the work he has put into improving his endurance has allowed him to run out games and do things he was not previously able to. He has also improved his strength which has allowed him to match up better on taller players. He still needs to improve his strength to compete at the next level but that is going to be the case for any 190+ player going into the AFL. What you have at the moment is a versatile backman who reads the ball very well coming in, is not afraid to leave his man if needed and gives great run going the other way. He is not a tight shut down defender and is a bit of a gambler but he can do a job and usually his gambles pay off. He can get shown up for pace playing on a lead up player and this is one of my big concerns for him at the next level. Given the pace and strength issues I do not expect to see much of him next year but with a year to work on these issues he could come in and play well in 2011. Going forward is where he stands out though. He breaks early when the ball is turned over and gets to space well to receive. When he gets the ball he is good off either foot. His hands are good both above his head and below his knees and in contested situations he is a pretty good handballer out of the contest. I do not see him as a midfield prospect. For the Stingrays in the TAC this year he averaged 18 possessions and 5 marks per game. He was invited to camp and tested very well in the endurance events finishing top 10 in both (14.46 in the beep and 10.13 in the 3km) but his speed was very poor (bottom 3) and his agility not much better. The results were pretty much expected but do show accurately what teams have to work with.


Pick 65 - RICHMOND

With Raines departing I am going with a guy who I could see stepping in at the back and giving the Tigers as much as Raines did and with much better disposal skills to boot. Another HBFer admittedly but again a guy who offers something a bit different and with whom there is a lot to like.

Gavin Roberts (Norwood, SA)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 72kg, DOB: 13/3/91

This is a guy who has largely gone under the radar on here who I think could well go pretty high on the day. There is a lot to like about Roberts and the OP that has kept him out of the second half of the year should allow teams to get him at a bargain price. He has very nice height for a small/med but is all skin and bones on him so teams are going to have to be patient with him not only to allow him to recover from his OP issues but also to build up his frame to allow him to withstanding the pounding he will get at AFL level. He was the Norwood U18 capt this year and had an excellent state trial game before going down with OP and not playing for the rest of the year. He was invited to State Camp and jumped and did the sprints but not do an endurance testing. As expected he tested well for speed but given he had previously run a 2.90 this was not a surprise. His jumping was also excellent and his arms measured very long and his skin folds very low. He compares himself to Andrew Mackie and actually moves and plays a fair bit like him. He is a very balanced mover who has good height for his position but is not likely to ever be strong enough to play as a key position. He runs off well, keeps his eyes up and uses the ball very well to advantage. He is a very good kick and usually picks the best option to pass to. He is pretty good overhead but not so good below the knees where he fumbles a little bit too much. He plays off a flank at either end and some time on the wing but at AFL level I see him as a HBFer. He was played as a sweeper this year and that bit of height he has and acceleration would entice a few teams to play him behind the ball and let him run forward. He is a very outside player however who needs to learn to put his head over the ball more and that is going to put off a few. Even before the OP Roberts needed to work on his endurance and with the OP that is going to make it a bit difficult to build up the running power he needs to play AFL football. Still his combination of skill, pace and height is going to intrigue more than a few teams I believe and if he gets through this draft I would be pretty confident that he would be picked up as a rookie.


Pick 66 – HAWTHORN

I think over the next couple of years the plan will be to move Cyril more and more into the midfield ala Gary Ablett and so there is going to be a spot up forward for a speedy small forward crumber. Hicks is a bit on the small side but ticks all the other boxes and I think could do well at Hawthorn.

Robbie Hicks (Calder, VIC)
Height: 176cm, Weight: 68kg, DOB: 10/9/91

Hicks is very much a one position player and lucky for him speedy forward pockets are in vogue. Its his body though that makes him a marginal prospect but at worst you have to see him getting picked up as a rookie. He is under 180, is very light and does not look like he has a frame which is going to support too much weight. All of that hurts his chances but there are plenty of indig guys who have shown you don’t need much meat on your bones to play the game effectively and Hicks actually plays the game a lot like those indigenous guys. He is very quick, will chase hard, is pretty good in the air, is very tricky and knows where the goals are. He was invited to Camp and as expected tested well in the speed events. I was a little disappointed in his 20m time and looking at it a little closer he was very slow in the first 5 metres (0.14 slower than Kennedy) but was easily the quickest there between 5 metres and the 20 metres. He was also better (2nd overall) in the slightly longer repeat sprints. I found that quite surprising as he always seems very quick off the mark on the field and I thought if anything the results would be the other way around. Still once he is up and going he is the quickest guy going around. All of his other tests were pretty average. On the park he seems to work hard both ways. He will buzz around when the ball comes in leading and getting back to the contest. He is good overhead for his size and is a good lead up player who uses his pace to create and maintain separation and thus negate his height disadvantage. He is also a good crumber reads the ball well off hands. He is usually very balanced and composed with the ball but physical pressure does worry him at the moment and he is a little prone to coughing the ball up or disposing of it poorly when the physical pressure goes on. He is capable of some very smart things around goal and usually has a good sense of where the goals and those around him are and he takes good options about when to pass and when to go for the goal. He can pull out some spectacular goals but on the whole he does tend to be a little wasteful particularly on the run at full pace. He needs to just to drop it back 10% for a step and balance himself for his shot. I really like the way he sets up his other forwards and he is very good at delivering both by hand and by foot inside 50. Outside 50 he is also excellent going into his forwards and weights his passes well to the forwards advantage. He does not have much penetration on his kicking at the moment though and struggles from outside 40. As he does a bit of weight training teams will be hoping that improves. His chase and tackle are reasonable but his effort is a little inconsistent. He seems to work pretty hard on the park but I think he lacks endurance at the moment and with greater running power and focus I think he could be a really good run down player. He is not a high possession player but then few true forward pockets ever are. When he does get it though he is very dangerous.


Pick 67 – RICHMOND

I am going with Kerr as much for attitude as anything and think Richmond could definitely use someone who will do all the little things that teams need to win. He is a nice hard at it kind of player who will start up forward but should eventually play in the midfield. He is a footballer and Richmond need a few of those.

Rohan Kerr
Height: 184cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 18

As with a lot of prospects in this draft it is hard to judge where he might go. He could go in the third round or not at all. He was overlooked for a Draft Camp invite which is not a great sign but not fatal. I like Kerr because he is a tough nut that can play up front as a small forward and go into the middle and win the ball and do each equally well. In the AFL he should start his career as a small forward. He has reasonable, but not great pace and is a good contested mark on the lead. He reads the ball extremely well off hands both in the ruck and crumbing up forward. He is good below the knees, very clean and retains an innate sense of where the goals are. Having crumbed the ball he will quickly swing around and kick the goal across the body. He has good balance, a low centre of gravity, is strong and holds his feet well in contests. He also recovers very quickly and is never out of a contest. Delivering into 50 he can laser it in there which again teams and big forwards love to see. He is a hard worker and does a lot of 1%ers that helps teams win. He will smother, shepherd and tackle with the best of them. He has reasonable height for a small medium. What is going to hurt him is that his agility test at State screening was abysmal and as bad as you will ever see from a small / medium. In games he tends to show reasonable agility in tight situations so I am not sure how much weight teams will give to this result. He did not make the Vic Country side.


Pick 68 - BRISBANE

The Lions need to build their young midfield brigade so I am going with a highly regarded guy who did not really live up to his billing this year. He is a footballer though which seems to be a prerequisite for the Lions now and his pace would certainly be very handy. The fact that he is also a Brisbane supporter also shows he is a person with good taste and only helps my decision here.

Liam Tobin (Sandringham, VIC)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 31/07/91

Was rated as a top 25 player in the Prospectus prior to the start of the season and I am thinking that getting him here might not be such a bad punt despite the fact that he did not have a very good season all told. Still he did represent Vic Metro although not in all the games and was solid in what he did. He was not invited to Camp but did go to State Screening and did well there pulling out a very nice 2.94 in the 20m. His jumping, agility and endurance were all pretty middle of the road. In game situation he uses his pace well to burst through with short 20 to 30 metre runs. He does not really get out on the long line breaking runs but that may come as he builds his endurance. He does back himself with the ball in hand and is not afraid to take a tackler on and beat him for pace. He seems to have a good feel for when to take the game on. He is a good mark for a midfield type and does not mind floating down to the 50 for a shot at goal. He reads the ball well in the air and positions himself well to mark it or if a pack is forming to rove the pack. He is not really a clearance player but can seagull stoppages reasonably effectively where he will either try and use his pace to get through the pack or throw it on the boot. His kicking is pretty good but there is a fair bit of development to be had there. He has a pretty reasonable feel with his passes but does not really punch them through to his target and he does lack a little penetration. He will occasionally effect a tackle but again this is something which he needs to work harder at especially when his pace could see him be very effective in this regard. He is a guy I see as a footballer first and foremost who has plateaued a bit this year but with a fair bit of development left in him. I would expect him be maybe a late round pick or probably more likely a rookie selection.


Pick 69 – COLLINGWOOD

Here I have Collingwood going with a guy who has disappeared off the radar a bit because of injury. He seemed to be really coming on early in the year and Collingwood are a team that can afford to stash him and see what develops.

Mitch Golby (Gippsland, VIC)
Height: 183, Weight: 82, DOB: 3/10/91

Has been a bit of the forgotten man as he has very much been out of sight out of mind. He suffered a knee injury in a Vic Country practice match and he has disappeared off a lot of people’s radars. I think he is going to end up a very nice late round or perhaps rookie selection for an astute drafting team. He is a powerfully built player who is likely to start his career as a half back where he was pegged to play for Vic Country. It is worth noting that he also played through the midfield for Gippsland although more as an outside player rather than an inside player. When playing further up the park he a definite goal scoring threat who delivers into the forward 50 very well. His kicking is his strength and he has a very strong leg for a young player. His accuracy is good and he weights his passes well. He is a left footer who is solid on his right although his technique looks a little awkward on the right. He has a bit of a crouched approach when kicking for goal but he seems to maintain reasonable balance and kicks through the ball well. He will kick them from 50. With the lay off his skin folds are very high and he will come into a team who takes the risk on him way out of shape. Word is he should be right to go for the start of next year but it is going to take him some time to get into playing shape. Turning up in Dew like shape is going to cause more than a few teams to question his dedication and he certainly has done himself no favours in this regard. When fit he is a reasonable mover and seems to have okay pace. He reads the play well and is solid overhead. It is a bit of a shame he did his knee when he did as he was in good form and could have made quite an impression on the Champs and the draft.


Pick 70 – RICHMOND

Richmond lost a few key positions this offseason so will be looking to restock. Hartigan might be one they will look at.

Kyle Hartigan (Western Jets, VIC)
Height: 194cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 7/11/91

Very popular amongst the TAC watchers because he finished the year off well and they figure he is ripe to take the next step. This is often the way that things go so I am not necessarily bagging that concept and I note that recruiting staff often weight end of season games highly. What concerns me is that he was a non-factor at Champs and did not seem to be able to handle the step up in class. Will he be able to make the 3 or 4 steps up in class necessary to make it at AFL level? That is my main concern. Being a Victorian I do think someone is going to give him a go if not in the ND then as a rookie. He played forward and back this year but looks definitely like he is going to be a back at the next level. He has good size and reasonable athletic ability. He is capable of doing a nice defensive job and running off and making his opponent work the other way. With ball in hand he makes pretty good decisions and is a reasonable kick without being a stand out. Similarly he reads the play and ball in the air pretty well but I would not put him in the top bracket there either. All around he is just a solid player who has a reasonable shot at stepping up at the next level but is by no means a certainty. He was not invited to Camp but did the Victorian State Screening. His jumping and endurance were very good being in the top 20% for each. His agility was below average but not by much and was solid for a big guy. His pace off the mark was poor but he showed pretty good top end speed so there is something to work with there although his explosiveness needs to improve to make it at AFL level. He has very short arms for such a big guy but I am not that concerned as he has pretty good height and a good leap. Overall he is a guy worth a shot at this stage of the draft but not someone I would be comfortable taking much higher.


PICK 71 – SYDNEY

I am continuing the rebuilding of the height in the Sydney team by taking another KP / utility who can play at either end of the park. Gunston is a versatile player who although a bit undersized has shown he can perform.

Jack Gunston (Sandringham, VIC)
Height: 191, Weight: 74, DOB: 16/10/91

Height is obviously the biggest concern hanging over Gunston’s head. At a little under 191 and only 74kgs there is no way he is playing key position in the AFL any time soon. There are plenty of KPs that tall but they are becoming fewer and fewer as the years pass. Most are now playing as third talls and this is likely to be the position we end up seeing Gunston play in the AFL at least at the beginning of his career whilst he puts some meat on his bones. He played at both ends this year for Sandringham including a 6 goal performance on Sam Reid who is rated highly by quite a few people. He has been pretty good wherever he has been thrown and I am not yet willing to pigeon hole him at either end of the ground. He is a good mark of the ball on the lead and is a good long, accurate kick for goal. Around the ground his kicking is solid and again he has good penetration. At the other end he is disciplined and sticks to his job commendably. In defence he will mark when he can but will also punch where it is safer to do so. He provides an option going the other way but I would not say he is a big rebounding defender. He works hard no matter where he is playing and in the forward line is not afraid to offer multiple leads. His head does not go down if the first lead is not honoured. He has very nice pace and gets separation well in the forward half and closes well in the back half. He did a 2.98 in the 20m at the State Screening. His agility was good, jumping solid but his endurance was poor. He acknowledges himself that his endurance is one of the major things that he needs to work on. If he gets picked up I foresee many painful miles on the running track for him this offseason. He will also be spending a lot of time in the gym as his strength needs to improve as he is too easily outbodied and moved around at present. As his weight increases this should improve naturally but I foresee a lot of protein shakes and weight lifting for him for the next few years.


Pick 72 - BRISBANE

The Lions are in need of a bit of pace and foot skills into their side and at this stage I am putting up a guy who would give them those in spades. There will certainly be worse players taken then Jack this year.

Jack Lawler (Morningside, QLD)
Height: 175, Weight: ?, DOB: 10/8/87

I do not really know much about this guy but I am taking a very positive recommendation from thoselionslads and putting him in here. Jack is a short indigenous guy capable of playing at either end who has elite pace and very good skills. He was unfortunate enough to break his leg just before the finals which has kept him even more under the radar than he otherwise might be. Prior to breaking his leg he was in fantastic form and being talked about in QFLQ circles as a definite chance to find his way onto a list next year. Apparently there is at least one team who are very interested in him. He is very highly rated within Morningside and his coach apparently puts him right up there on talent with Armitage and Urquart who he coached. Playing off half back Lawler provides great run and carry and he uses his pace to great effect. Wherever you see anything about Lawler there is also a mention of his “silky skills” and his ability to hit targets in the best position sets his team up. He has been around for a few years and has nominated the last few without getting picked up but he has continued to improve. In a year where there seems a lot of candidates under 180cm being looked there is no reason why I think Lawler might not be another. He was selected in the AFLQ Team of the year as a HBF. Realistically he is more of a rookie selection but you never know.


PICK 73 – COLLINGWOOD

I have heard a whisper that Collingwood is interested in Jesse O’Brien and given that he is a Collingwood supporter he is probably also interested in them.

Jesse O’Brien (North Adelaide, SA)
Height: 184, Weight: 71, DOB: 13/02/91

Was eligible last year and despite a bit of late interest ended up being overlooked. This year he again he started pretty slow before improving later in the year and even playing a couple of senior games. I am not sure to what extent playing for Rostrevor College interrupted his year. At this stage of the draft teams are looking to either plug holes or for guys who stand out in come respect and O’Brien has that bit of X factor about him that makes him stand out from the crowd. He is an outside player who can pick the ball up, break the lines and open a game up with his carry. He is not the quickest guy in the world but he uses what he has well. His kicking is good off either foot and he takes good options. He is not flustered when pressured and takes the time needed to hit the right man at the right time. Capable of winning his own ball although that is not a big part of his game at the moment. He seems to work well in traffic with quick hands and that is important if he is going to step it up to the next level where even outside players are expected to get their hands dirty. He sneaks forward well and is a goal kicker from the midfield which again is something that teams like to see. He was selected for SA this year but only played one game and he was not hugely impressive gaining only 12 disposals. He does tend to fade out of games a bit and needs to focus on staying involved in games even when things are not falling his way. He prides himself on his endurance and running ability but it was interesting that he did not test particularly well in that regard at State Screening. His pace and agility were also below average but his jumps were very good. He is not really a marking target at the moment and being very light tends to get buffeted around a bit in contested situations. With some time in the gym in a full time AFL environment though this could change. He is currently training with Port as one of the plethora of players they invite each year. This does not usually mean a whole hell of a lot.


PICK 74 – SYDNEY

Sydney are a team which place an enormous amount of importance on culture and a guy who more than anyone else who epitomises what Sydney like in its players it is McNeil. He is a leader who plays hard ever game all game.

Dylan McNeil (Murray, NSW)
Height: 175cm, Weight: 75kg, DOB:

This is a heart and soul guy who you know is going to go out there and give his all every game. If there is any justice in the world someone will pick him and as far as skill set goes someone should. The problem that he has is that modern midfielders are all at least 180cm tall and usually significantly quicker than he is. 175cm guys with less than average pace are overlooked year in year out and that could easily happen to McNeil for the second year in a row. What he does offer is a very good in and under midfielder who attacks contests with avengence. He has good quick hands and has good vision enabling him to shoot handballs out from in tight situations. He is strong over the ball, holds his feet well in the contest and recovers quickly when he does go to ground. He reads the ball well off hands and gets himself to good positions. When he gets outside he finds space well and offers his team mates an easy out option. His kicking lacks some penetration but he is reasonably accurate over short and medium distances and he chooses between options well. He is a very tenacious tackler and makes more than his fair share. He will shepherd, block and smother and all the other things needed for team success. He is very much a leader and leads by example. He attended at Camp and as expected did not set the world on fire. His pace was below average but was not terrible, his endurance was good but not exceptionally so, his jumping and agility were ordinary. He is not an athlete but he is a footballer. Overall he is a ball magnet who gets in and has a real go and leads by example.


Pick 75 - BRISBANE

Continuing with the speculative picks I am going with another guy who might be more of a rookie chance but he is someone who has some definite athletic gifts that could stand him in good stead in an AFL environment. The one thing holding him back from being picked up by Brisbane is that he does not seem like an out and out footballer which seems to be the favoured approach with the new Sheriff. Still I would be comfortable taking a punt on him.

Josh Milani (Gold Coast, QLD)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 92kg, DOB: 03/05/91

Not sure how he found himself on the Gold Coast but he definitely played up there this year and so I am going to give him a preferential mention that I like to do for the Qld boys. Realistically he is probably more of a rookie chance but his athleticism is going to make teams take a second look at him. The fact that he also stands over 192 and weighs in at a powerful 92kgs also is going to help him. He was invited to State Screening and he recorded the fastest time of anyone this year with a fantastic 2.82 and he had the fastest 5m time that I can recall ever seeing. He also recorded the biggest standing vertical jump this year and his running jumps were up in the top couple across Australia and well ahead of Moore who lead the way in that regard at Camp. His agility was good but he tested poorly for endurance. Despite weighing in at a smidge under 92kgs his skin folds were excellent and his hands are massive. On the park he plays mostly as a backman but he can float up into this middle with his man. He is an exceptional contested mark and seems to love getting into the middle of a pack and using his leap and good hands to take the big mark. This has worked out very well at junior level but I think he needs to be a bit more disciplined when he gets to senior level and punch more. He is an excellent read of the ball in the air and positions himself well to make the contest. His kicking is the thing which is really holding him back at the moment and the thing which is likely to consign him to the rookie list for a year or two. His left foot is almost comical at times (although credit too him he does actually use it when he needs to) and his right foot needs a lot of work. He invariably kicks long and almost always to the contest. His technique is not great especially when going for extra distance when he tends to pull the ball up before dropping it. He does not seem to have great vision and will miss the easy short to mid range option. He also does not tend to use his speed much once he gets the ball. He rarely takes off and breaks the lines although this might be to do with his endurance at this stage. I did a google search on him and ended up on his facebook page. That does not do him any favours really although maybe I am just getting old. Overall there is a lot to like I think in this kid and at the end of the draft or in the rookie draft I can definitely see someone taking a punt on him.


PICK 76 – SYDNEY

Sydney with the acquisition of Bradshaw are looking to ensure that they do not bottom out and accordingly might well select a mature aged backman to provide much needed support to Bolton (or barring that a forward who can convert to a backman). Hodgey in the phantom got me thinking of Pedersen and I think he would be a good pick up for Sydney. He is a little undersized but after have Leo Barry at FB for a lot of years (who is only 184) having an undersized player at the back is not going to be major concern you would think.

Cam Pedersen (Box Hill Hawks, VIC)
Height: 191cm, Weight: 91kg, DOB: 17/3/87

Has been looked at by the Hawks closely for a while and if they were to take him this year the Hawks are most likely to trying to make a backman out of him but he could also step in ably to the spot vacated by Williams. Pedersen is a versatile player who was predominantly a forward in the VFL this year but did spend time down back and even in the ruck and midfield when needed for Box Hill. He regularly kicked bags of 4 or 5 goals and ended up with 35 goals for the year and was selected in the VFL team of the year. At 22 he is older than most recruits but still young enough to learn and develop with a team. He has improved steadily over the last few years and took a significant jump this year. He has continued to work to get the best out of himself and this work ethic should appeal to a lot of teams. At 191 he is a little undersized as a key position in the AFL but not fatally so and he has the athleticism and football smarts to compensate. The main problem for him at the moment is strength and he needs to get stronger to compete against AFL key positions. You would think he would play as a third tall his first year before moving to a key position after getting a couple of preseasons in the gym. He is likely to really benefit from being in a full time environment. He is a very good mark of the ball and he times his jumps very well to take the ball at a high point where the opposition has trouble reaching it. Below the knees he is also very good for a key position prospect and he is very sharp once he gets the ball. He sizes up situations well and takes pretty good options. His kicking for goal and around the ground is good although he is a bit one sided. He can fade in and out of games a bit but with some further endurance work and focus he should be able to improve this. He works both ways and when the ball is turned over he chases hard and tackles well. This is a guy not afraid to work on things he needs to and you know he is going to go the extra yard to succeed. He wants to play AFL badly and is highly motivated. He was invited to State Screening and tested well. His speed was very good for a key position prospect (under 3 is usually my marker here) and his jump results were also in the top quarter of those tested. He also has very large hands although just average arm length. His endurance was adequate and his agility something that needs to be worked on. Overall I would have no hesitation in giving Pedersen a shot at the end of this draft as if nothing else you are going to get a guy with a great attitude who is going to push everyone around him.

 

[Xplicit]

Hey Quigley,

That really was long!!!!!

Do you think there is any chance of Kane Lucas slipping down to Essendon.

How keen is Port Adelaide?

 

[Quigley]

I have no inside information and had him going to Port because I thought he just fitted well with what they should be trying to do. As far as the chances of him falling to Essendon I would not rule it out but I would think it would be unlikely. If Melksham is available though do not be surprised if they go with him instead of Lucas.

 

[Toadvine]

Great work Quigley just read the first round and will get around to the rest later.

I agree with you re: Melksham. He showed everyone what he can do when he gets his body right and his fitness up in the TAC GF. well worthy of pick 5 IMO.

 

[LukeHodge15]

Quality Quality Read Mate

 

[Wizard]

Michael Coad - good get mate, i completely forgot about his link to Hawthorn. he had a very good season and is every chance to go there.

 

[UpTheGuts]

The equivalent of takling a 45c entry in Powerball, but worthwhile and warrants consideration.

Would be the lest likely draft ever to have occurred when compared to pre-draft estimations, if it happened.

Certainly would be a lot of cats amongst plenty of pigeons, but I sense you've sought to be more controversial rather than predictive

 

[Love The Game]

Love your work, but no KPF (Big weakness on our list).

 

[Quigley]

The equivalent of takling a 45c entry in Powerball, but worthwhile and warrants consideration.

Would be the lest likely draft ever to have occurred when compared to pre-draft estimations, if it happened.

Certainly would be a lot of cats amongst plenty of pigeons, but I sense you've sought to be more controversial rather than predictive

When is the actual draft anywhere near what we think it will be even in teh first round. May as throw out there what I think and put up a few names to make other people think about it.

 

[Snoop Dog]

F&*k me ..............I know how long mine took to put together and that was horrendous. This is twice as long but an absolutely outstanding read. Love reading some of the better mocks on here, not necessarily for the order but the ranges you have some blokes in as well as the left fielders.

Couple of players;

McCauley - Agree with you. He could be a Renouf type who charges up the order based on need.

Roberts - am a massive fan as well.

Allmond - have you seen him play. Have him ahead of some of the SA boys you had in.

Weedon - agree with you but like Winmar and Taylor clubs will see the potential in them.

 

[Quigley]

Love your work, but no KPF (Big weakness on our list).

Yeh probably right but after the first couple of rounds I couldn't be arsed going back and checking what I had given everyone. Still Fyfe a definate marking target and I did give you Hartigan. Another one or two KPs should have prob come Richmond's way.

 

[Quigley]

F&*k me ..............I know how long mine took to put together and that was horrendous. This is twice as long but an absolutely outstanding read. Love reading some of the better mocks on here, not necessarily for the order but the ranges you have some blokes in as well as the left fielders.

Couple of players;

McCauley - Agree with you. He could be a Renouf type who charges up the order based on need.

Roberts - am a massive fan as well.

Allmond - have you seen him play. Have him ahead of some of the SA boys you had in.

Weedon - agree with you but like Winmar and Taylor clubs will see the potential in them.

I had had enough by the time I was half way through and posting it finally is always a big relief.

I haven't seen Allmond play Snoop and I hadn't heard anything really about him.

 

[WALL-e]

That's a lot of effort right there....

Well done mate.

 

[T4P]

Where's Luke Ball?

 

[Quigley]

As I said in the intro I did not include any recycled players nor did I allow passes. Also I have given some teams (Sydney at least) an extra pick or two.

 

[DrTomSwift]

As much I respect your opinion and admire the effort you put in, I really dislike the prospect of getting Griffiths, TDL and Duncan. Well getting them at those picks anyway, Duncan at 23 is okay though

 

[Cunnington ftw]

Good effort, but unfortunately this cannot be considered passable given you have JMP at 32.

He has impressed because he is good at football.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Not enough effort put in, please try again.

Congrats Quig's, will read over lunch.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Great read Quigley but you're preying on a couple of my fears there, namely that: 1. Griffiths will go before pick 19 (I think he will too but hope like hell he doesn't), and 2. we'd overlook Houghton at 35.

I don't like that you're giving us blokes with disposal issues. Barlow sounds like one of Hardwick's 'find me some gems' types so hopefully we'd look at him come picks 44+.

Great effort though.

 

[INSANE]

**** that's long, good effort, but, calling Swift a blue collar mid who turns it over "time and time again" has me questioning your talent i.d ability.


But, once again, kudos on a good read.