Kevin's Curse

[Daytripper]

I found this amusing.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/sp...ts-lost-to-labor/story-fn5ko0pw-1225909632607

IT'S being called Kevin's Curse. All but one of the seven seats Kevin Rudd visited in the final days of the election campaign were lost by Labor.

The former PM had no magic touch with voters, reinforcing the view of ALP insiders that it was the right call by Julia Gillard to replace him.

Mr Rudd visited the seats of Bonner, Flynn, Herbert, Brisbane and Moreton.

He also made surprise appearances in the electorate of Melbourne and the Sydney seat of Bennelong.

"It's the curse of Kevin," said one Labor insider. "He was not the campaign asset that he claimed to be."

If only the ALP factions weren't smart enough to replace him with Gillard. One intelligent thing they did all campaign.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

I'm inclined to think that if they stuck with Kevin Rudd, labor might have won. Would have been only by a whisker, but better than where they are now.

 

[Clay Davis]

How many people would he meet during his visits to these places? 50? 100? 1000? Would he change any votes by being there?

The 'Labor insiders' are trying to blame everyone but themselves.

 

[jo172]

I'm still waiting for an explanation for the early election regardless of who was leading.

 

[Daytripper]

I'm inclined to think that if they stuck with Kevin Rudd, labor might have won. Would have been only by a whisker, but better than where they are now.

Its 6 for one and half-dozen the other.

On one hand they 'may' not have got belted in Qld as much as they did. But on the other hand Gillard may have saved some seats in Vic and SA. And Rudd may even have performed worse in WA as well.

I'm of the opinion that Gillard saved Labor from a majority defeat.

Rudd simply became unelectable in the end.

 

[The Exorcist]

Been rich to blame Rudd for those losers


Queensland had been considered a loss for Labor before Rudd "rejoined" the campaign


In Melbourne (where i live), Tanner had been fighting off the Greens for years. It was only because of local admiration for him that Labor was able to hold off the Greens previously. What's more, the new ALP candidate Cath Bowtell was only given about 6 weeks to establish herself in a marginal electorate.


ALP's poor performance wasn't because of Rudd, or really Gillard. More to do with these "faceless men" who set the overall strategy and ran the campaign.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Rudd simply became unelectable in the end.

Thats just your extreme rightwing view. Labor didnt lose to the libs, they lost to the greens and independents. Even when deposed, he was still prefered PM. I think Rudd had a lot of currency with non-interested voters. The same voters who deserted labor to the greens

 

[Subprime]

One thing the deposing of Rudd has done is expose the party's innards for all to see and it ain't pretty. That wouldn't have happened if he'd been left to fight the election.

There was an interview with Morris Iemma on ABC radio this morning and he hoed into Bitar and Arbib relentlessly, blaming them for losing votes in multicultural parts of Sydney's ALP heartland. I'd never heard of these guys 3 months ago.

 

[Messenger]

How much of the Victorian result could be put down to Gillard?

 

[Doctor Jolly]

ALP's poor performance wasn't because of Rudd, or really Gillard. More to do with these "faceless men" who set the overall strategy and ran the campaign.

Its these faceless men that Rudd had under control from 2006 to early 2010.
The brought NSW's disease to federal politics.

If you believe the rumour that Rudd had already negotiated the MRRT (modifed one resources tax) and was set to announce it, but the faceless men saw it as an opportunity to get Gillard in and get an early win.

 

[The Exorcist]

Its 6 for one and half-dozen the other.

On one hand they 'may' not have got belted in Qld as much as they did. But on the other hand Gillard may have saved some seats in Vic and SA. And Rudd may even have performed worse in WA as well.

I'm of the opinion that Gillard saved Labor from a majority defeat.

Rudd simply became unelectable in the end.

Hear what you're saying, but the vast majority of votes that Labor lost have gone to Greens / informal / Ind


The Coalition is not impressive, Labor is not impressive


Don't necessary think Gillard saved Labor from a major defeat & Rudd was not unelectable - he won the previous election from Howard, so he knows how to win a campaign. His problem was the campaign machine behind him, who also advised Gillard.


Don't shoot the messager, shoot the message

 

[Doctor Jolly]

One thing the deposing of Rudd has done is expose the party's innards for all to see and it ain't pretty. That wouldn't have happened if he'd been left to fight the election.

There was an interview with Morris Iemma on ABC radio this morning and he hoed into Bitar and Arbib relentlessly, blaming them for losing votes in multicultural parts of Sydney's ALP heartland. I'd never heard of these guys 3 months ago.

I'm not sure about Iemma, but Rees' (prior to Kennelly) was non-factional like Rudd, and had some reasonable reform policies before the factions dumped him.

Its a disease.

 

[Subprime]

I'm not sure about Iemma, but Rees' (prior to Kennelly) was non-factional like Rudd, and had some reasonable reform policies before the factions dumped him.

Its a disease.

I've always liked Iemma, I get a feeling he barracks for the Pies.

He should run for federal politics.

 

[showdownhero]

Thats just your extreme rightwing view. Labor didnt lose to the libs, they lost to the greens and independents. Even when deposed, he was still prefered PM. I think Rudd had a lot of currency with non-interested voters. The same voters who deserted labor to the greens

Labor lost one seat to the greens and one to an independent. All green preferences went to Labor anyway so I'm not sure if I agree with you.

Surely you would agree that in Queensland Labor was defeated (quite comprehensively) by the Libs?

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Labor lost one seat to the greens and one to an independent. All green preferences went to Labor anyway so I'm not sure if I agree with you.

Surely you would agree that in Queensland Labor was defeated (quite comprehensively) by the Libs?

I should have also said, lost a lot to informal votes who were probably disillusioned labor voters p1ssed off the the "faceless" men.

 

[Daytripper]

I should have also said, lost a lot to informal votes who were probably disillusioned labor voters p1ssed off the the "faceless" men.

Its a bit rich to claim they were probably disillusioned Labor voters.

After all, they were most probably Coalition voters whilst Howard was PM and who only switched over at the last election.

I know its hard for people to accept but people did actually vote Howard in four terms in a row. There are a lot of people out there who have voted Coalition in the past.

 

[Inferno]

Been rich to blame Rudd for those losers


Queensland had been considered a loss for Labor before Rudd "rejoined" the campaign


In Melbourne (where i live), Tanner had been fighting off the Greens for years. It was only because of local admiration for him that Labor was able to hold off the Greens previously. What's more, the new ALP candidate Cath Bowtell was only given about 6 weeks to establish herself in a marginal electorate.


ALP's poor performance wasn't because of Rudd, or really Gillard. More to do with these "faceless men" who set the overall strategy and ran the campaign.

To be fair Tanner only announced he was leaving the day Rudd got knifed, and I think the Greens would have won even if everyone knew Bowtell would be the candidate 6 months ago (though not by quite as much).

I think Rudd would have saved a few seats in Qld if he was still in charge, which would easily offset the seats in Vic that Gillard won (and also holding onto Corangamite) that Rudd wouldn't of. The polls for Rudd were about the same as they were on the eve of the election for Gillard, I think an established PM would have had done better. Gillard was almost like an opposition leader rather then a PM, and there was little difference in policy between her and Rudd.

And yeah people within the ALP want to use Rudd as the scapegoat for their own failures. The strategy was ridiculous, both the election strategy and the Rudd knifing strategy. I think in all honestly they expected Rudd to quit, and then they could have just dismissed any leaks as Rudd being bitter.

 

[Chief]

ALP's poor performance wasn't because of Rudd, or really Gillard. More to do with these "faceless men" who set the overall strategy and ran the campaign.

Abbott and Co talk about the "faceless men", then name them. Then next time they get their face on TV they mention "faceless men", then they name them.

These guys seem to be the most well-known "faceless men" in existence.

 

[evo]

Abbott and Co talk about the "faceless men", then name them. Then next time they get their face on TV they mention "faceless men", then they name them.

These guys seem to be the most well-known "faceless men" in existence.

Hehe. It's like the ubiquitous "under rated" player. They talk about him on the footy show, in the paper, thread after thread is started about him.

 

[fairdinkum]

So Kevvie was focussing his campaigning on marginal seats the ALP most feared losing?

Well there is a newsflash if ever I've seen one.