Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Swans Blog]

Yep, that happens when both teams score less than the squiggle expected. Kicking a lower score means you head downward, and holding the opposition to a lower score means you head rightward.

The squiggle expected Adelaide 81 - 83 Collingwood. The real scoreline was 76-55.

At least 90% of pies supporters expected to win and probably 75% of neutrals too.

 

[Seppo]

So according to the squiggle Freo should beat Geelong 76 - 71 this weekend.

 

[Final Siren]

That makes sense, although it then brings weather into account. E.g. play a game in the wet and cold and end up with a 60-30 scoreline as opposed to a 120-60 if the weather had been fine.

Right. I don't think it happens enough to be significant, though. Off the top of my head, this year's unusually low-scoring games have all been under a closed roof at Docklands. Why? I dunno. But I don't think weather is a big deal.

There are definitely some games where weather changes scores, though; one that comes to mind is Richmond beating Port Adelaide 77 to 30 in a torrential downpour in Round 10, 2010. Although looking at the 2010 squiggle, even though this caused the Tigers to take a huge jump to the right, they performed to exactly that defensive level for the next 5 games (before drifting back).

 

[Final Siren]

So according to the squiggle Freo should beat Geelong 76 - 71 this weekend.

Yes! Although what I do when I'm tipping is I remember the squiggle doesn't know anything except scores and which state games are played in. So if it's tipping a close match and I know that one team is getting key players back, or the other has lost someone to injury, I'll tip differently. I might also tip differently if one team is another's bunny, or one team has a strong record at that particular venue.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Yes! Although what I do when I'm tipping is I remember the squiggle doesn't know anything except scores and which state games are played in. So if it's tipping a close match and I know that one team is getting key players back, or the other has lost someone to injury, I'll tip differently. I might also tip differently if one team is another's bunny, or one team has a strong record at that particular venue.

What do you do when tipping Richmond?

 

[Sights]

Final Siren How did you arrive at ±6 for home advantage, and is it possible to include more parameters (e.g., away in SA vs. away in WA or home vs. away intrastate)? Do you think it would be possible to determine them by some best fit of postdictions to historical results?

 

[Pessimistic]

Dont mess with the squiggle !

 

[KillaKanga]

Dont mess with the squiggle !

Waiting in anticipation on the Squiggles tip for Friday Night. How highly does the Sqig rate Stevie J?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Interesting round 9 squiggles. Hawthorn are still sitting in that sweet spot, but Swans & Port are climbing. Port vs Hawks game is massive because I'm sure if the Hawks lose and don't meet minimum scoring expectations, they'll start to drop off. Seen their run-in to the finals? Pies x2, Cats, Swans & Freo - 5 very difficult games. They've had the wood on the Pies recently, but the pies want finals and top 4 and I don't think it's going to be a 1-sided affair in either game.

 

[Hawkk]

Interesting round 9 squiggles. Hawthorn are still sitting in that sweet spot, but Swans & Port are climbing. Port vs Hawks game is massive because I'm sure if the Hawks lose and don't meet minimum scoring expectations, they'll start to drop off. Seen their run-in to the finals? Pies x2, Cats, Swans & Freo - 5 very difficult games. They've had the wood on the Pies recently, but the pies want finals and top 4 and I don't think it's going to be a 1-sided affair in either game.

...and?

Hawthorn have already played the bolded teams and even with injury (Lake, Sewell, Stratton, Hodge, Schoenmakers and even McEvoy) the worm has remained constant. With the way the hyperbole is building about Hawthorn you'd think we had an armchair ride into the season and we are as good as cactus

Past is no precedent but the Hawks have beaten up on some decent Collingwood sides. Over the last 2 seasons Collingwood have finished 4th and 6th (after home and away) and the Hawks average winning margin is 7 goals. In fact if you stretch the run back prior, aside from 2011 (when Collingwood were invincible Geelong withstanding) our record way back to 2007 has been incredible. For what ever reason some teams match up better than others (Geelong and Hawthorn being a good example of this)

I understand that there are probably some posters (and some in the media) that really, really want Hawthorn to drop of their perch but the reality is that irrespective of the Port Adelaide result, Hawthorn will be in the top 4 going into the round 14 Collingwood game (when they can expect Lake, Rioli, Spangher, Sewell, Shiels and obviously Roughead back in contention)

 

[WWSD]

...and?

Hawthorn have already played the bolded teams and even with injury (Lake, Sewell, Stratton) the worm has remained constant. With the way the hyperbole is building about Hawthorn you'd think we had an armchair ride into the season and we are as good as cactus

Past is no precedent but the Hawks have beaten up on some decent Collingwood sides. Over the last 2 seasons Collingwood have finished 4th and 6th (after home and away) and the Hawks average winning margin is 7 goals. In fact if you stretch the run back prior, aside from 2011 (when Collingwood were invincible Geelong withstanding) our record way back to 2007 has been incredible. For what ever reason some teams match up better than others (Geelong and Hawthorn being a good example of this)

Even with our outs we will likely beat Collingwood in both of those games coming up. The only one I'm not confident of winning is the Cats game. IF we can beat Port Adelaide, then we are almost certain to finish in the top four. We've got Hodge, Sewell and Shiels are all back this week against Port Adelaide, while Roughead and Spangher are back for the Greater Western Sydney game next week. We will get back a lot of players in the coming weeks.

 

[SuperSub17]

Even with our outs we will likely beat Collingwood in both of those games coming up. The only one I'm not confident of winning is the Cats game.

How do you figure that?

The main reason Hawthorn has beaten Collingwood the last few times is because they have been a much better team than Collingwood in 2012-13. This year with Hawthorn's outs it's probably not going to be as clear-cut.

 

[WWSD]

How do you figure that?

The main reason Hawthorn has beaten Collingwood the last few times is because they have been a much better team than Collingwood in 2012-13. This year with Hawthorn's outs it's probably not going to be as clear-cut.

We've beaten you without Franklin, without Lake, without Hodge, without Mitchell over the years and it hasn't stopped us from scoring heavily against Collingwood. The last five times against the Pies we have scored 137,138,135,145,119.

I don't care what anyone on here says, but your entire back six has always struggled against Hawthorn and again that will be the Pies biggest test against the Hawks and whether or not they can restrict us from scoring, because if they can't, well you'd have to say your chances of beating us this time around are very slim.

 

[Hawkk]

How do you figure that?

The main reason Hawthorn has beaten Collingwood the last few times is because they have been a much better team than Collingwood in 2012-13. This year with Hawthorn's outs it's probably not going to be as clear-cut.

Well even with our famed outs (Hodge has missed two, Mitchell two, Lake six, Rioli 1.5, Stratton four, Sewell the season and Shoemakers the six) we've probably proven our self superior thus far.

Thing is, our injury report card is probably in better shape than last year when up until this stage we lost Suckling + Schoenmakers to season ending injuries, Birchall, Shiels and Rioli to 7/8 week long injuries.

Aside from Gibson all our current injuries are relatively short term (mostly 3-7 weeks)

For what ever reason Hawthorn has proven themselves a strong pairing for Collingwood, perhaps the best example of this was in round 17 2012 when an injury ravaged Hawthorn side did a demolition job on Collingwood.

 

[SuperSub17]

We've beaten you without Franklin, without Lake, without Hodge, without Mitchell over the years and it hasn't stopped us from scoring heavily against Collingwood. The last five times against the Pies we have scored 137,138,135,145,119. I don't care what anyone says but your entire back six has always struggled against us and that will be Collingwood's biggest test against us and whether or not they can restrict us from scoring, because if they can't, well you'd have to say your chances of beating us would be slim.

When was the last time Mitchell or Hodge hasn't played against us? Seems to me like they've played every time. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

Collingwood's been able to score reasonably well too in those games: 115, 91, 97, 90 and 84, which is pretty good for losing scores. Our defence has been much improved this year also and we haven't conceded any more than 12 goals since round 1. Plus the comp in general has been experiencing much lower scores than usual this year.

 

[WWSD]

When was the last time Mitchell or Hodge hasn't played against us? Seems to me like they've played every time. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

Collingwood's been able to score reasonably well too in those games: 115, 91, 97, 90 and 84, which is pretty good for losing scores. Our defence has been much improved this year also and we haven't conceded any more than 12 goals since round 1. Plus the comp in general has been experiencing much lower scores than usual this year.

Round 17 2012 we were missing Hodge and Franklin, Round 3 last year we were missing Lake

 

[WWSD]

When was the last time Mitchell or Hodge hasn't played against us? Seems to me like they've played every time. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

Collingwood's been able to score reasonably well too in those games: 115, 91, 97, 90 and 84, which is pretty good for losing scores. Our defence has been much improved this year also and we haven't conceded any more than 12 goals since round 1. Plus the comp in general has been experiencing much lower scores than usual this year.

I'm not saying that Collingwood aren't good or that their not capable of beating us, just pointing out that your back line is your biggest issue when facing the Hawks. It's always been an area in which we've been able to expose Collingwood.

 

[Hawkk]

When was the last time Mitchell or Hodge hasn't played against us? Seems to me like they've played every time. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

Collingwood's been able to score reasonably well too in those games: 115, 91, 97, 90 and 84, which is pretty good for losing scores. Our defence has been much improved this year also and we haven't conceded any more than 12 goals since round 1.

Maybe. Hodge didn't play in round 1 or round 17 2012. In all those games Collingwood has been comprehensively spanked, in fact aside from round 1 2012, each game has been padded by late goals...

Hawthorn has a 10/3 record against Collingwood dating back to 2006, in much the same way the famous 13/3 Geelong record over Hawthorn is no coincidence...that sort of domination is no fluke

 

[SuperSub17]

I'm not saying that Collingwood aren't good or that their not capable of beating us, just pointing out that your back line is your biggest issue when facing the Hawks. It's always been an area in which we've been able to expose Collingwood.

Yep that's fair enough

I've seen it play out time and time again so won't be surprised if it does. I just think this year we have a better chance than we have in previous years seeing as our defence has probably been our strong point this year.

 

[Hawkk]

I'm not saying that Collingwood aren't good or that their not capable of beating us, just pointing out that your back line is your biggest issue when facing the Hawks. It's always been an area in which we've been able to expose Collingwood.

In fact, since 2006...

119 (wet), 145 (wet), 135, 137, 65, 65, 98, 59, 121, 116 (wet), 154, 95

Mick appeared to have the model to counter Hawthorn (he won 3 of his last 4 games against us) then they went ahead and sacked him.

I like Buckley as a coach but his previous insistence on not tagging our major ball winners and instead going one-on-one with us just plays into our hands. Collingwood are a pretty good side this year (certainly an improvement on the 2012/13 incarnation) but for what ever reason our record against them is 'crazy good'

 

[SuperSub17]

Maybe. Hodge didn't play in round 1 or round 17 2012. In all those games Collingwood has been comprehensively spanked, in fact aside from round 1 2012, each game has been padded by late goals...

Hawthorn has a 10/3 record against Collingwood dating back to 2006, in much the same way the famous 13/3 Geelong record over Hawthorn is no coincidence...that sort of domination is no fluke

Round 3 2013 was padded by late goals to Hawthorn - Collingwood controlled the first half and Hawthorn ended up winning by 55 points. That really didn't reflect the state of the game.

Round 21 2013 Hawthorn kicked two late goals in the last couple of minutes to push it out to 35 points when the game was probably closer than that too.

I would say the reason it's happened is that Hawthorn has been a better side than us in most of those years. 2007 they finished above us and got a close win that year. 2008 they won the flag and we scraped into 8th - two smashings aren't surprising. 2009 you were still dangerous but that was probably the surprise result. 2010-11 Collingwood was the better team and smashed Hawthorn twice accordingly.

2012-13 Hawthorn have been by far better than Collingwood and were pretty warm favourites going into all those games. It's no surprise that the results have panned out the way they have. You certainly can't compare it to Geelong-Hawthorn when Geelong won 4 out of 5 vs the Hawks in 2012-13 despite Hawthorn dominating the rest of the comp in that time.

 

[Hawkk]

If you look at the score lines over the last 13 matches, Collingwood have defeated us when they have restricted the Hawks to under 10 goals. If you look at the area of the ground where Collingwood have struggled to contain Hawthorn its in score line efficiency. In many of these games you have contained Hawthorn for 75% of the game only for Hawthorn to jump out of the gates at the beginning or end of the game to burst the game open

Evidently Collingwood went in (almost) head to head equal favourites with Hawthorn in round 17 2012, Collingwood was a game in front of Hawthorn and we were heavily undermanned.

 

[SuperSub17]

If you look at the score lines over the last 13 matches, Collingwood have defeated us when they have restricted the Hawks to under 10 goals. If you look at the area of the ground where Collingwood have struggled to contain Hawthorn its in score line efficiency.

Evidently Collingwood went in (almost) head to head equal favourites with Hawthorn in round 17 2012, Collingwood was a game in front of Hawthorn and we were heavily undermanned.

In hindsight Collingwood was at its best in 2012 somewhere in between rounds 4-14. After round 14 we went 6-6 for the rest of the year.

That result stands out to me, you're right, as on paper it looked a pretty even game. I think people heavily underestimated Hawthorn at the time though because of their early season form, coupled with their soft run for the 4-6 weeks before that (round 10 they had the 100-point win over North, round 11 Port, round 12 Brisbane, round 13 bye, round 14 Carlton, round 15 GWS, round 16 WB). Even though they won all those games by 40+ points nobody thought it was good preparation. IMO the signs were there Hawthorn was hitting its straps and Collingwood was starting to fall away.

 

[tazaa]

Hawthorn will annihilate Collingwood. One loss and a few injuries doesnt make the best team in the comp duds. Get your hand off it

 

[The Swans Blog]

We've beaten you without Franklin, without Lake, without Hodge, without Mitchell over the years and it hasn't stopped us from scoring heavily against Collingwood. The last five times against the Pies we have scored 137,138,135,145,119.

I don't care what anyone on here says, but your entire back six has always struggled against Hawthorn and again that will be the Pies biggest test against the Hawks and whether or not they can restrict us from scoring, because if they can't, well you'd have to say your chances of beating us this time around are very slim.

That's always been the case when Franklin has played. I can't really see Collingwood beating the Hawks. I see them providing a good contest but that's about it really. Unless the Hawks have more injuries in their midfield, I'd expect them to beat Collingwood in both games.