Mega Thread Delist/Trade/Draft Supermegaultrathread - Who will we draft? edition

[Patron]

Yeah that is a gross draft for us. Would way prefer Durdin, Goddard, Wright, Duggan over a hurn.

 

[SloppyJoe]

Lycett is a brute, he's big and doesn't mind driving his knee into an opponent

Or into his teammate's face

 

[Suma Magic]

I really don't want Ahern.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Would be pissed if this is how it turned out

http://boundforglorynews.com/luke-mcalisters-november-phantom-draft/

If it did fall like that, I wouldn't be all that surprised if we took Garlett with 11

 

[The Gtrain]

Wow, does this guy despise the Eagles or what? Seems like the most horrible underwhelming draft ever! Here are some "highlights" on the players he picks for us..

Pick 11 Paul Ahern:

Evaluation of his prospects:
I’m not particularly sold on Ahern. I like what he offers and see why he’s well rated but something feels a little off. Even if he pulls all the parts together I’m not particularly sure he’d ever be a genuine A-grader. He projects more as a mid tier/role player and I’m not sure they’re the types you target with first rounders.

PIck 32 Declan Hamilton:

Evaluation of his prospects:
I really want Hamilton to succeed. He seems a good kid and with his bloodlines it’d be nice to have him. But I’m just struggling to see it. He has a lot to like and had a great championships but I just can’t see a dominant part of his game that’d allow him to build from it into an AFL career.

PIck 51 Harrison Wigg:

Evaluation of his prospects:
Wigg is someone who needs to end up in the right system. With his skillset he’s going to have to bang down the door in a state league to get selected as he does have some real natural limitations. He’s going to have to grab his opportunities when given. I can’t help but feel he might be a fringe player for a few seasons before being delisted.

Pick 69 Brenden Abbott:

Evaluation of his prospects:
Abbott is a massive risk. Missing out on the ’12 draft by one day, he was passed over in ’13. He’s had some elite games in the WAFL but also some howlers. His mixture of size, athleticism and boot is just too hard to ignore though – barring smarts he has the whole package and if it comes together he could be something special. That said, I think it’s very unlikely it does.

Can't wait for the draft! If this phantom does not get you exited for our future, what will!?

Just to further your point

See McCartins plays like:

Evaluation of his prospects: As far as the key forwards in this crop go, McCartin is a fairly safe bet. While his skin folds and diabetes are a bit of a concern, he’s dominant enough and consistent enough in that domination to indicate that at the very worst he’ll be someone capable of providing a real option inside 50. The peak for him would be a Fevola level of domination but it’s likely he reaches somewhere inbetween. I personally think he’ll likely join the Petrie, Tippett and Kennedy types in that ‘second tier’ forward range.

 

[Tom Kerrigan]

My ideal draft (being very optimistic with each of these players at least pushing to reach their potential) would be:

11: Cockatoo (Pickett will have gone) - addresses our most dire need of midfielders that actually win games for their team and damage sides. Similar role to Shuey and one being tagged would free up the other (I can see Cockatoo like Shuey sucking at coping with tags)

32: Viojo-Rainbow or any of the best mids if they've slid this far eg Blakely, Garlett, those kinda end of first round picks - if no good midfielders get here it'd be nice to have a slightly looser Hurn-style player in Rainbow to free up our actual Hurn, give Yeo the freedom to play mid and let us be able to phase out Butler etc from our half back line.

51: Clem Smith - has his haters and I'd never consider him as a defender but as a forward (despite not playing there a lot at this point) he'd add mongrel and a bit of energy to our forward line. With the shit kicks coming into Kennedy and Darling from the Vanilla Squad we need someone like a ballantyne to attack the ground ball - LeCras and Hill both are more marking types that'd benefit from playing off Hawthorn's good kicks more than here and Cripps also isn't exactly an aggressive or contested type. Smith would worry other teams more than McGinnity would (I can only really Paddy as a temporary solution unless he develops a scoring game)

69: Caleb Daniel (or rookie him) - We're not gonna get a certain A-Grader from here anyway and we need mids so may as well have a crack at a possible Sam Mitchell type. Could be a complete Ryan Neates bust but has all the skills to make it and if he puts on enough weight to be a nugget rather than a weed maybe he could add something in a few years. The way it sounds he'll either make it and be a Dayne Zorko or someone, or flop and be too small, but at this pick the risk isn't high enough for us to worry.

 

[The Gtrain]

Anybody seen Will fordham play? Just looking through some of the draft machine stuff..looks like a handy player with some pace and takes the game on..could be a good rookie pick up

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-21/draft-prospect-will-fordham

 

[Big Tones]

My ideal draft (being very optimistic with each of these players at least pushing to reach their potential) would be:

11: Cockatoo (Pickett will have gone) - addresses our most dire need of midfielders that actually win games for their team and damage sides. Similar role to Shuey and one being tagged would free up the other (I can see Cockatoo like Shuey sucking at coping with tags)

32: Viojo-Rainbow or any of the best mids if they've slid this far eg Blakely, Garlett, those kinda end of first round picks - if no good midfielders get here it'd be nice to have a slightly looser Hurn-style player in Rainbow to free up our actual Hurn, give Yeo the freedom to play mid and let us be able to phase out Butler etc from our half back line.

51: Clem Smith - has his haters and I'd never consider him as a defender but as a forward (despite not playing there a lot at this point) he'd add mongrel and a bit of energy to our forward line. With the shit kicks coming into Kennedy and Darling from the Vanilla Squad we need someone like a ballantyne to attack the ground ball - LeCras and Hill both are more marking types that'd benefit from playing off Hawthorn's good kicks more than here and Cripps also isn't exactly an aggressive or contested type. Smith would worry other teams more than McGinnity would (I can only really Paddy as a temporary solution unless he develops a scoring game)

69: Caleb Daniel (or rookie him) - We're not gonna get a certain A-Grader from here anyway and we need mids so may as well have a crack at a possible Sam Mitchell type. Could be a complete Ryan Neates bust but has all the skills to make it and if he puts on enough weight to be a nugget rather than a weed maybe he could add something in a few years. The way it sounds he'll either make it and be a Dayne Zorko or someone, or flop and be too small, but at this pick the risk isn't high enough for us to worry.

Good post IMHO. I would be happy with this haul, and agree with your thoughts on other possible picks.

 

[eagles rule]

If it did fall like that, I wouldn't be all that surprised if we took Garlett with 11

Menadue is next speedy mid I would reach for and good height at 188 cm but needs a good feed of KFC as he is only 69 kg .

 

[DrTomSwift]

Who the **** is Luke Mcalisters?

Poster called Skippos

 

[dajesmac]

Who the **** is Luke Mcalisters?

Skippos, the poster on the D&T board. He has a pretty good phantom.

He was the fella responsible for the footage of draftees well before the afl site.

 

[SpaceClef]

Well so far we've been linked with Ahern, Pickett, Cockatoo, Duggan and De Goey in various phantoms and rumours.

I don't think anyone has a clue what we will do. I think all of them are decent propositions so time will tell.

 

[Skippos]

Yep, I'm Luke McAlister. Justifiably I see you're not too happy with how things have panned out.

The good news is that it quite simply won't. Could end up worse, could end up better - but nobody is ever right this far out. I'll just address some comments and stick around if there's any follow up comments/questions. I am sorry to have disappointed you guys though!

I think the eagles would be pissed as well. Highly doubt any one will take **** ahead of us

I'd have thought the same but I got some good mail that the expansion clubs are looking at him too. I expect GWS to target needs and upside above all else - their list is in a position where they can afford to take some risks and look at genuine potential stars as opposed to safe bets. Cockatoo is not only a list fit but has upside unmatched in this crop. My mail could be wrong, but unfortunately it seems to have ****ed things up a bit for you guys in my phantom.

Wow, does this guy despise the Eagles or what? Seems like the most horrible underwhelming draft ever! Here are some "highlights" on the players he picks for us..

Pick 11 Paul Ahern:

Evaluation of his prospects:
I’m not particularly sold on Ahern. I like what he offers and see why he’s well rated but something feels a little off. Even if he pulls all the parts together I’m not particularly sure he’d ever be a genuine A-grader. He projects more as a mid tier/role player and I’m not sure they’re the types you target with first rounders.

PIck 32 Declan Hamilton:

Evaluation of his prospects:
I really want Hamilton to succeed. He seems a good kid and with his bloodlines it’d be nice to have him. But I’m just struggling to see it. He has a lot to like and had a great championships but I just can’t see a dominant part of his game that’d allow him to build from it into an AFL career.

PIck 51 Harrison Wigg:

Evaluation of his prospects:
Wigg is someone who needs to end up in the right system. With his skillset he’s going to have to bang down the door in a state league to get selected as he does have some real natural limitations. He’s going to have to grab his opportunities when given. I can’t help but feel he might be a fringe player for a few seasons before being delisted.

Pick 69 Brenden Abbott:

Evaluation of his prospects:
Abbott is a massive risk. Missing out on the ’12 draft by one day, he was passed over in ’13. He’s had some elite games in the WAFL but also some howlers. His mixture of size, athleticism and boot is just too hard to ignore though – barring smarts he has the whole package and if it comes together he could be something special. That said, I think it’s very unlikely it does.

Can't wait for the draft! If this phantom does not get you exited for our future, what will!?

tl;dr: boring justification of ahern being meh but who i think you'd take not who i would take and hamilton/wigg/abbott all being excellent selections

I'm a South Australian. If anything I hate Victorian clubs. The original 6 non Vic sides all have soft spots for me.

Unlike some of the other phantom drafters - I believe it's necessary to be harsh within profiles. One phantom drafter who I shall not name writes their profiles as if every player is going to be a success. That's not the case. Very few become A grade. A small amount become B grade, a few become role players and the rest do **** all. I believe risk vs reward is an under-covered element in profiles so I like to focus on it. At times I give the illusion of harshness when I actually rate the player.

Ahern is not someone I particularly rate though. Low risk vs reward type who I'm very certain will play 100 games but also very certain he won't make all australian or anything. I think he'll be roughly as good as Luke Dahlhaus is right now. If you wouldn't give pick 11 for Luke Dahlhaus, you're a victim of 'pickflation thinking' - Ahern is smoother and silkier than Dahlhaus but less crash and bash.

All year I've been penciling in Pickett -> WCE. Geelong moving up to 10 as well as Pickett types fitting a need for Collingwood, GWS and GC has seen these outside midfielders flood up the order in place of the KPPs who previously would have been there and allowing Pickett to slip. Before trade week you were in a very advantageous position to grab a Cockatoo/Pickett or even Laverde type. You were in the perfect range for a team with fantastic KPP stocks. Trade week ****ed you up the ass unfortunately and as such it limited the options.

Midfield and small defense were the two areas I thought need a bit of a boost. With the mids, both inside and out did need a little bit of help. I rate Waterman very highly and also believe he's a fantastic list fit. It came down to Garlett, Ahern, Weller and Blakely for mine. Weller from what I've heard is being a bit twattish and wants to go to Victoria. Weller while excellent doesn't provide as much run as he should and a team like you guys I believe should be targetting runners. With Waterman coming I felt in a close call I'd be looking outside which left it as Ahern v Garlett. I'd personally have picked Garlett because I rate him higher however for the phantom it's about modeling what I think would happen and I couldn't see a club passing up Ahern over Garlett. Ahern is just rated higher across the board.

With new information coming out every day though there's every chance someone like Wright moves back in to the top 10 which sends a Pickett/Langford/Cockatoo type out.

Hamilton presents great value at 32. I have to give the illusion of not being biased towards SA prospects when really - I rate them all very highly. In the second round you're not looking to get dynasty players, you're looking to get players who either can play a role or have high risk but some reward. Hamilton offers both a role and not as much risk. He hasn't received the exposure due to being from SA and having average games when televised in the champs but his games before then were elite. He isn't a dominant runner, accumulator or kicker which is where the comment about him lacking a dominant aspect came from but what he is is elite by hand, classy, poised and possesses excellent vision. To an extent he has that rare ability to slow the game down around him.

Wigg at 51 too presents excellent value as a potential outside midfielder/small back. You don't expect dynasty players that late and I worry about Wigg's size/athleticism combo but no player after 50 is well rounded. The upside he offers is well worth it.

Abbott I'd say most of you know. I suspect you'll take him - and he'd be a great pick. I'd be picking him at 35 as a Crows fan. His size/athleticim/boot combination is unmatched by every player in the crop bar Petracca. Yeah, he's not the finished product but that alone is exciting enough to take the punt as if it all comes together he's going to be someone worth watching.

I personally rate the draft I've given you a good one. Aside from Ahern, I really think the Hamilton/Wigg/Abbott/Waterman rounds 2-5 is probably the best out of any club. It's just Ahern that's the issue (and one I agree with). Here's hoping things fall a little differently and Nakia/Pickett slip

Just to further your point

See McCartins plays like:

Evaluation of his prospects: As far as the key forwards in this crop go, McCartin is a fairly safe bet. While his skin folds and diabetes are a bit of a concern, he’s dominant enough and consistent enough in that domination to indicate that at the very worst he’ll be someone capable of providing a real option inside 50. The peak for him would be a Fevola level of domination but it’s likely he reaches somewhere inbetween. I personally think he’ll likely join the Petrie, Tippett and Kennedy types in that ‘second tier’ forward range.

I've copped a bit of flak for that comment from Eagles fans across the year and I do get why.

Like I'm harsh on draftees, I'm also harsh on the definition of elite. Some people have 5-10 elite players per side. I have one or two. Right now I only consider Franklin and Roughead elite/A grade. Maybe Hawkins when he's fully fit. Cloke and N. Riewoldt at their best are too. I don't intend to start a Kennedy chest beating war but I don't have him in that company purely because I don't feel he's truly as dominant as them. I also question the spread of his goals/performances between lower teams and higher teams. I could be wrong but I'd be interested to see his % of goals against bottom 6-10 sides v top 8 sides compared against other elite KPFs.

I rate him, but I don't have him top 3-5 in the league. Anyone outside that for me is in the second tier. I'm harsh when assessing players as elite/A-grade.

 

[Skippos]

Quite simply, right now I've got Laverde, De Goey, Cockatoo, Langford and Pickett all going top 10. A month ago I had two of them going top 10 and all would have been at 11 ahead of Ahern. The bolt of these outside leaning midfielders just sucks for you guys. And I'd be hoping a Wright/Goddard/Durdin type goes in the top 10 to allow any one of them to slide to 11 for you guys.

 

[bodazoka]

Quite simply, right now I've got Laverde, De Goey, Cockatoo, Langford and Pickett all going top 10. A month ago I had two of them going top 10 and all would have been at 11 ahead of Ahern. The bolt of these outside leaning midfielders just sucks for you guys. And I'd be hoping a Wright/Goddard/Durdin type goes in the top 10 to allow any one of them to slide to 11 for you guys.

Considering your opinion of Ahern would it be preferable to grab a tall that slides instead if you just looked at best available? Are you possibly letting a gun KPP slide past you for a needs player that isn't that great to begin with?

I understand we are desperate for midfielder s but you'd have to really think about these tall players at 11 if one did slide IMO.

 

[Skippos]

Considering your opinion of Ahern would it be preferable to grab a tall that slides instead if you just looked at best available? Are you possibly letting a gun KPP slide past you for a needs player that isn't that great to begin with?

Yeah, I am. It's a good point, really. Part of me wanted to take Wright or Goddard there but I just wasn't convinced enough.

The rise of these mids and slides of the KPPs isn't through a change of mindset among recruiters as much as it is the slow realisation that the fabled KPP crop of '14 isn't as good as it was meant to be. I think Wright/Durdin being 8-15 prospects is probably fair, whereas in hindsight the 1-7 range of mid-late season was too high. I'd be avoiding Wright purely as he's similar to what you've already got in Lycett and I'm not sure how he'd cope with the size of Subi. Goddard is an option though, can never have enough elite KPDs and as a forward he's a bit different from the rest of your bunch.

 

[krakouers]

Yeah, I am. It's a good point, really. Part of me wanted to take Wright or Goddard there but I just wasn't convinced enough.

The rise of these mids and slides of the KPPs isn't through a change of mindset among recruiters as much as it is the slow realisation that the fabled KPP crop of '14 isn't as good as it was meant to be. I think Wright/Durdin being 8-15 prospects is probably fair, whereas in hindsight the 1-7 range of mid-late season was too high. I'd be avoiding Wright purely as he's similar to what you've already got in Lycett and I'm not sure how he'd cope with the size of Subi. Goddard is an option though, can never have enough elite KPDs and as a forward he's a bit different from the rest of your bunch.

Sorry skippos, really appreciate your reply, but you really think Plan B for west coast after Cockatoo isnt Garlett? You think it's really a stretch to get him at 11?

 

[dajesmac]

Unlike some of the other phantom drafters - I believe it's necessary to be harsh within profiles. One phantom drafter who I shall not name writes their profiles as if every player is going to be a success.

Haha, no secret who that is.

 

[SpaceClef]

Yep, I'm Luke McAlister. Justifiably I see you're not too happy with how things have panned out.

The good news is that it quite simply won't. Could end up worse, could end up better - but nobody is ever right this far out. I'll just address some comments and stick around if there's any follow up comments/questions. I am sorry to have disappointed you guys though!



I'd have thought the same but I got some good mail that the expansion clubs are looking at him too. I expect GWS to target needs and upside above all else - their list is in a position where they can afford to take some risks and look at genuine potential stars as opposed to safe bets. Cockatoo is not only a list fit but has upside unmatched in this crop. My mail could be wrong, but unfortunately it seems to have ****** things up a bit for you guys in my phantom.



tl;dr: boring justification of ahern being meh but who i think you'd take not who i would take and hamilton/wigg/abbott all being excellent selections

I'm a South Australian. If anything I hate Victorian clubs. The original 6 non Vic sides all have soft spots for me.

Unlike some of the other phantom drafters - I believe it's necessary to be harsh within profiles. One phantom drafter who I shall not name writes their profiles as if every player is going to be a success. That's not the case. Very few become A grade. A small amount become B grade, a few become role players and the rest do **** all. I believe risk vs reward is an under-covered element in profiles so I like to focus on it. At times I give the illusion of harshness when I actually rate the player.

Ahern is not someone I particularly rate though. Low risk vs reward type who I'm very certain will play 100 games but also very certain he won't make all australian or anything. I think he'll be roughly as good as Luke Dahlhaus is right now. If you wouldn't give pick 11 for Luke Dahlhaus, you're a victim of 'pickflation thinking' - Ahern is smoother and silkier than Dahlhaus but less crash and bash.

All year I've been penciling in Pickett -> WCE. Geelong moving up to 10 as well as Pickett types fitting a need for Collingwood, GWS and GC has seen these outside midfielders flood up the order in place of the KPPs who previously would have been there and allowing Pickett to slip. Before trade week you were in a very advantageous position to grab a Cockatoo/Pickett or even Laverde type. You were in the perfect range for a team with fantastic KPP stocks. Trade week ****** you up the ass unfortunately and as such it limited the options.

Midfield and small defense were the two areas I thought need a bit of a boost. With the mids, both inside and out did need a little bit of help. I rate Waterman very highly and also believe he's a fantastic list fit. It came down to Garlett, Ahern, Weller and Blakely for mine. Weller from what I've heard is being a bit twattish and wants to go to Victoria. Weller while excellent doesn't provide as much run as he should and a team like you guys I believe should be targetting runners. With Waterman coming I felt in a close call I'd be looking outside which left it as Ahern v Garlett. I'd personally have picked Garlett because I rate him higher however for the phantom it's about modeling what I think would happen and I couldn't see a club passing up Ahern over Garlett. Ahern is just rated higher across the board.

With new information coming out every day though there's every chance someone like Wright moves back in to the top 10 which sends a Pickett/Langford/Cockatoo type out.

Hamilton presents great value at 32. I have to give the illusion of not being biased towards SA prospects when really - I rate them all very highly. In the second round you're not looking to get dynasty players, you're looking to get players who either can play a role or have high risk but some reward. Hamilton offers both a role and not as much risk. He hasn't received the exposure due to being from SA and having average games when televised in the champs but his games before then were elite. He isn't a dominant runner, accumulator or kicker which is where the comment about him lacking a dominant aspect came from but what he is is elite by hand, classy, poised and possesses excellent vision. To an extent he has that rare ability to slow the game down around him.

Wigg at 51 too presents excellent value as a potential outside midfielder/small back. You don't expect dynasty players that late and I worry about Wigg's size/athleticism combo but no player after 50 is well rounded. The upside he offers is well worth it.

Abbott I'd say most of you know. I suspect you'll take him - and he'd be a great pick. I'd be picking him at 35 as a Crows fan. His size/athleticim/boot combination is unmatched by every player in the crop bar Petracca. Yeah, he's not the finished product but that alone is exciting enough to take the punt as if it all comes together he's going to be someone worth watching.

I personally rate the draft I've given you a good one. Aside from Ahern, I really think the Hamilton/Wigg/Abbott/Waterman rounds 2-5 is probably the best out of any club. It's just Ahern that's the issue (and one I agree with). Here's hoping things fall a little differently and Nakia/Pickett slip




I've copped a bit of flak for that comment from Eagles fans across the year and I do get why.

Like I'm harsh on draftees, I'm also harsh on the definition of elite. Some people have 5-10 elite players per side. I have one or two. Right now I only consider Franklin and Roughead elite/A grade. Maybe Hawkins when he's fully fit. Cloke and N. Riewoldt at their best are too. I don't intend to start a Kennedy chest beating war but I don't have him in that company purely because I don't feel he's truly as dominant as them. I also question the spread of his goals/performances between lower teams and higher teams. I could be wrong but I'd be interested to see his % of goals against bottom 6-10 sides v top 8 sides compared against other elite KPFs.

I rate him, but I don't have him top 3-5 in the league. Anyone outside that for me is in the second tier. I'm harsh when assessing players as elite/A-grade.

Great reply and thanks for the insight.

I do think you're underrating Kennedy's work around the ground and his defensive pressure though.

Cloke "at his best" = Collingwood's midfield at its most devastating. Now that it's falling to bits, Cloke is as useful as **** on a bull. You could possibly even say the same thing about Hawkins.

Kennedy on the other hand gets awful delivery on regular occasions (especially against the better sides) which affects his output. But he doesn't stop tackling and chasing, to the extent that he is often applying more pressure than our midfielders.

So yes, he might not have been as dominant as Cloke was in his heyday, but Kennedy has a few more strings to his bow, imo, which is why he's a potential captain.

Apart from that, I agree that he's probably a notch below Roughhead, Franklin and Nick Riewoldt (thank Christ you didn't say Jack like I had first assumed!)

 

[Monocle]

Anybody seen Will fordham play? Just looking through some of the draft machine stuff..looks like a handy player with some pace and takes the game on..could be a good rookie pick up

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-21/draft-prospect-will-fordham

Yes I have and I am surprised that he is not rated by more posters and I have previously described him on this board as a poor mans Laverde.
I am pretty sure that I posted in a post to Eastern Rangers that he was a smokie that I had been keen on.

Having said that I doubt he will get drafted simply because of the low number of kids that will be taken in this draft.
Those in the know have predicted that approximately only 65 new names will be read out on November 27th and Fordham is not in the best 65 IMO. Would make a good rookie listed player.

 

[SpaceClef]

It will be very depressing if our reward for winning that last game against GCS is that some players we really need get taken at 8 and 10.

 

[dajesmac]

Would be pretty annoyed if Cockatoo was taken by one of the expansion sides, assuming they also take Pickett. Duggan would probably be the next bet - surely not Langford.

 

[SpaceClef]

Would be pretty annoyed if Cockatoo was taken by one of the expansion sides, assuming they also take Pickett. Duggan would probably be the next bet - surely not Langford.

As Skippos says, when you have three picks in the first round every year you get an unprecedented ability to take a punt on high reward types where other sides would go safe with their solitary pick.

Then there's the insanity of the Martin & O'Meara mini draft jackpot...

 

[Shuperman]

Yep, I'm Luke McAlister. Justifiably I see you're not too happy with how things have panned out.

The good news is that it quite simply won't. Could end up worse, could end up better - but nobody is ever right this far out. I'll just address some comments and stick around if there's any follow up comments/questions. I am sorry to have disappointed you guys though!



I'd have thought the same but I got some good mail that the expansion clubs are looking at him too. I expect GWS to target needs and upside above all else - their list is in a position where they can afford to take some risks and look at genuine potential stars as opposed to safe bets. Cockatoo is not only a list fit but has upside unmatched in this crop. My mail could be wrong, but unfortunately it seems to have ****** things up a bit for you guys in my phantom.



tl;dr: boring justification of ahern being meh but who i think you'd take not who i would take and hamilton/wigg/abbott all being excellent selections

I'm a South Australian. If anything I hate Victorian clubs. The original 6 non Vic sides all have soft spots for me.

Unlike some of the other phantom drafters - I believe it's necessary to be harsh within profiles. One phantom drafter who I shall not name writes their profiles as if every player is going to be a success. That's not the case. Very few become A grade. A small amount become B grade, a few become role players and the rest do **** all. I believe risk vs reward is an under-covered element in profiles so I like to focus on it. At times I give the illusion of harshness when I actually rate the player.

Ahern is not someone I particularly rate though. Low risk vs reward type who I'm very certain will play 100 games but also very certain he won't make all australian or anything. I think he'll be roughly as good as Luke Dahlhaus is right now. If you wouldn't give pick 11 for Luke Dahlhaus, you're a victim of 'pickflation thinking' - Ahern is smoother and silkier than Dahlhaus but less crash and bash.

All year I've been penciling in Pickett -> WCE. Geelong moving up to 10 as well as Pickett types fitting a need for Collingwood, GWS and GC has seen these outside midfielders flood up the order in place of the KPPs who previously would have been there and allowing Pickett to slip. Before trade week you were in a very advantageous position to grab a Cockatoo/Pickett or even Laverde type. You were in the perfect range for a team with fantastic KPP stocks. Trade week ****** you up the ass unfortunately and as such it limited the options.

Midfield and small defense were the two areas I thought need a bit of a boost. With the mids, both inside and out did need a little bit of help. I rate Waterman very highly and also believe he's a fantastic list fit. It came down to Garlett, Ahern, Weller and Blakely for mine. Weller from what I've heard is being a bit twattish and wants to go to Victoria. Weller while excellent doesn't provide as much run as he should and a team like you guys I believe should be targetting runners. With Waterman coming I felt in a close call I'd be looking outside which left it as Ahern v Garlett. I'd personally have picked Garlett because I rate him higher however for the phantom it's about modeling what I think would happen and I couldn't see a club passing up Ahern over Garlett. Ahern is just rated higher across the board.

With new information coming out every day though there's every chance someone like Wright moves back in to the top 10 which sends a Pickett/Langford/Cockatoo type out.

Hamilton presents great value at 32. I have to give the illusion of not being biased towards SA prospects when really - I rate them all very highly. In the second round you're not looking to get dynasty players, you're looking to get players who either can play a role or have high risk but some reward. Hamilton offers both a role and not as much risk. He hasn't received the exposure due to being from SA and having average games when televised in the champs but his games before then were elite. He isn't a dominant runner, accumulator or kicker which is where the comment about him lacking a dominant aspect came from but what he is is elite by hand, classy, poised and possesses excellent vision. To an extent he has that rare ability to slow the game down around him.

Wigg at 51 too presents excellent value as a potential outside midfielder/small back. You don't expect dynasty players that late and I worry about Wigg's size/athleticism combo but no player after 50 is well rounded. The upside he offers is well worth it.

Abbott I'd say most of you know. I suspect you'll take him - and he'd be a great pick. I'd be picking him at 35 as a Crows fan. His size/athleticim/boot combination is unmatched by every player in the crop bar Petracca. Yeah, he's not the finished product but that alone is exciting enough to take the punt as if it all comes together he's going to be someone worth watching.

I personally rate the draft I've given you a good one. Aside from Ahern, I really think the Hamilton/Wigg/Abbott/Waterman rounds 2-5 is probably the best out of any club. It's just Ahern that's the issue (and one I agree with). Here's hoping things fall a little differently and Nakia/Pickett slip




I've copped a bit of flak for that comment from Eagles fans across the year and I do get why.

Like I'm harsh on draftees, I'm also harsh on the definition of elite. Some people have 5-10 elite players per side. I have one or two. Right now I only consider Franklin and Roughead elite/A grade. Maybe Hawkins when he's fully fit. Cloke and N. Riewoldt at their best are too. I don't intend to start a Kennedy chest beating war but I don't have him in that company purely because I don't feel he's truly as dominant as them. I also question the spread of his goals/performances between lower teams and higher teams. I could be wrong but I'd be interested to see his % of goals against bottom 6-10 sides v top 8 sides compared against other elite KPFs.

I rate him, but I don't have him top 3-5 in the league. Anyone outside that for me is in the second tier. I'm harsh when assessing players as elite/A-grade.

Aside from these guys, how highly do you rate Waterman?

 

[Skippos]

Sorry skippos, really appreciate your reply, but you really think Plan B for west coast after Cockatoo isnt Garlett? You think it's really a stretch to get him at 11?

I think Garlett at 11 is a real stretch. I don't see him having the ceiling you want players at that range to have. I'd love to be wrong though as I took a real liking to him the first time I saw him early in the year - he's a bit of a personal favourite. 11 just seems way too high for mine though, 15-25 far more acceptable.