Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Cynic]

We have the best record of any team playing interstate so that is allg

Exaggerated by our Tassie games though

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Exaggerated by our Tassie games though

I think even getting rid of them we are still in the top 4. It is not like we are slouches. Unfortunately the only interstate games we play are generally against Sydney, Adelaide, Port and Fremantle. All tough games.

 

[Final Siren]

This is truly an amazing algorithm. I have shown it to my Highschool Maths classes whenever they ask what will we ever use Maths for. It is quite an accurate representation of both short and medium term form and the tipping margins are usually scarily close. Well done on all the work you have put into this.

That's so great to hear! Thanks. I didn't study maths beyond high school but find numbers really interesting. You can figure out so much about the world with basic numeric literacy. And they're everywhere in sport... I got to wander around inside Richmond FC a bit last year and there are charts and numbers all over the walls, like a convention centre for stats nerds.

 

[Hawkk]

Exaggerated by our Tassie games though

Collingwood (2002 QF / 2007 SF) and Hawthorn (1991 QF / 2001 SF) are the only Victorian clubs to win 2 finals interstate.

Not that it means anything in itself...I believe Victorian clubs have less than a 25% success rate for interstate finals

 

[Rob]

We have the best record of any team playing interstate so that is allg

You reckon? Last year you lost to Sydney, Port and Freo all away and have lost again to Port in Adelaide this year (and GWS for that matter). Yet you were indisputably the best team in 2014.

It's bloody hard to win away against good sides. That's why finishing top 2 is such an advantage.

 

[Final Siren]

Round 7, 2015​

Animated!

A good week for squiggle-watchers, with some games that played out exactly to expectation and others that were wildly different, and have major ramifications.

Good week for Hawthorn, who put away Melbourne by 105 points, extending the gap to flag challengers Fremantle and Sydney. The Dockers and Swans had fairly good wins, but essentially held their position, while the Hawks kicked away. It's not easy for a team to stay in this area of the chart, because the expected scorelines grow so demanding, but the Hawks have been there since mid-2012, which is really amazing. They may be only 4-3 but they're still #1 to the squiggle.

Also a fantastic week for the Giants, who have really only had one bad game this year, when they were blown away by West Coast. Aside from that, their performances are great, with solid wins over low-tier teams in St. Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Carlton to go along with their upset over the Hawks and their narrow loss to Sydney. They're on track for finals this year.

West Coast were expected to destroy Gold Coast, but 135-43 was even more destroyinger than that, so they continue to move upwards and onwards like a Fremantle-seeking missile.

And Brisbane leap off the bottom with a huge upset over Port!

Bad week for Carlton. The squiggle hasn't been as quick to write off Carlton as many punters, seeing plenty of competition for spoon from Brisbane, Gold Coast, St Kilda, and even Melbourne. But now it's over. The Blues have done their dash, as far as the squiggle is concerned, and are now tipped for last place.

Calamitous week for Port Adelaide. The squiggle loved Port in 2014 but this game was a disaster for them on multiple fronts. Most obviously, coming off a tough opening fixture, this was the win Port needed to start putting premiership points in the bank. The loss leaves them two games and about three gazillion percentage points adrift of the top group, with a fixture that does them no favours.

And that fixture means they're in serious trouble. Port Adelaide need to play better than teams like Adelaide and West Coast to achieve the same number of wins, because they finished in the top 6 last year and were therefore given a harder daw. But they're not: they're playing worse than the Eagles and about the same as the Crows, meaning now they have to fight just for a place in the Eight.

It's a horrible loss, reminiscent of Fremantle losing to St Kilda in Round 18, 2014, a game that shook the Dockers out of the top two and derailed what until that point had looked like a pretty serious flag tilt.

For everyone else, it was a bit of a ho-hum week. The North vs Essendon and Adelaide vs St Kilda games were extremely close to expectation, with all four teams scoring within a kick or so of the prediction. As a result, they don't get to squiggle anywhere at all this week.

Richmond and Collingwood both kicked higher scores, but the margin was about right, so they move diagonally up & left, neither gaining nor losing ground on other teams. So for all the excitement of Tiger fans in breaking a 7-game losing streak against the Pies, they're still basically where they were.

Melbourne lost badly, but for where they are, it doesn't do them much harm.

Ladder predictor says:

Interactive squiggle & FAQ & stuff

 

[woosha24]

WCE symbol: Duh-dun...duh-dun.....duh-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun...

 

[TBellicious]

Round 7, 2015​

Animated!

A good week for squiggle-watchers, with some games that played out exactly to expectation and others that were wildly different, and have major ramifications.

Good week for Hawthorn, who put away Melbourne by 105 points, extending the gap to flag challengers Fremantle and Sydney. The Dockers and Swans had fairly good wins, but essentially held their position, while the Hawks kicked away. It's not easy for a team to stay in this area of the chart, because the expected scorelines grow so demanding, but the Hawks have been there since mid-2012, which is really amazing. They may be only 4-3 but they're still #1 to the squiggle.

Also a fantastic week for the Giants, who have really only had one bad game this year, when they were blown away by West Coast. Aside from that, their performances are great, with solid wins over low-tier teams in St. Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Carlton to go along with their upset over the Hawks and their narrow loss to Sydney. They're on track for finals this year.

West Coast were expected to destroy Gold Coast, but 135-43 was even more destroyinger than that, so they continue to move upwards and onwards like a Fremantle-seeking missile.

And Brisbane leap off the bottom with a huge upset over Port!

Bad week for Carlton. The squiggle hasn't been as quick to write off Carlton as many punters, seeing plenty of competition for spoon from Brisbane, Gold Coast, St Kilda, and even Melbourne. But now it's over. The Blues have done their dash, as far as the squiggle is concerned, and are now tipped for last place.

Calamitous week for Port Adelaide. The squiggle loved Port in 2014 but this game was a disaster for them on multiple fronts. Most obviously, coming off a tough opening fixture, this was the win Port needed to start putting premiership points in the bank. The loss leaves them two games and about three gazillion percentage points adrift of the top group, with a fixture that does them no favours.

And that fixture means they're in serious trouble. Port Adelaide need to play better than teams like Adelaide and West Coast to achieve the same number of wins, because they finished in the top 6 last year and were therefore given a harder daw. But they're not: they're playing worse than the Eagles and about the same as the Crows, meaning now they have to fight just for a place in the Eight.

It's a horrible loss, reminiscent of Fremantle losing to St Kilda in Round 18, 2014, a game that shook the Dockers out of the top two and derailed what until that point had looked like a pretty serious flag tilt.

For everyone else, it was a bit of a ho-hum week. The North vs Essendon and Adelaide vs St Kilda games were extremely close to expectation, with all four teams scoring within a kick or so of the prediction. As a result, they don't get to squiggle anywhere at all this week.

Richmond and Collingwood both kicked higher scores, but the margin was about right, so they move diagonally up & left, neither gaining nor losing ground on other teams. So for all the excitement of Tiger fans in breaking a 7-game losing streak against the Pies, they're still basically where they were.

Melbourne lost badly, but for where they are, it doesn't do them much harm.

Ladder predictor says:

Interactive squiggle & FAQ & stuff

When does tips for next rounds games come through?

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

When does tips for next rounds games come through?

http://prntscr.com/76fsxy

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Even when squiggle is right, the reserved pessimist in me finds it hard to believe

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Even when squiggle is right, the reserved pessimist in me finds it hard to believe

Seeing West Coast finishing 3rd just can't get me to believe it

 

[MF]

Ladder predictor says:

Interactive squiggle & FAQ & stuff

If Sydney and West Coast switched places that would be one hell of a way to kick off the finals series.

 

[bomberclifford]

Even when squiggle is right, the reserved pessimist in me finds it hard to believe

Seeing West Coast finishing 3rd just can't get me to believe it

Port and West Coast have effectively switched places on the graph. (and on the ladder)

 

[Tazmania]

WCE symbol: Duh-dun...duh-dun.....duh-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun-dun...

Gonna need a fire extinguisher in the mouth soon.

 

[Oneiros]

Gonna need a fire extinguisher in the mouth soon.

Or a bigger boat.

 

[Tairy Greene]

Is it just me, or does Carlton look like Space Ghost?

Can't be, Carlton don't go coast to coast.

 

[bomberclifford]

Can't be, Carlton don't go coast to coast.

Superb. Simply superb.

 

[poshman]

The hawks sure do know how to crush teams don't they!

Final Siren with the Syd - Hawks game coming. What results would most impact the squiggle.

Does the squiggle react to what we perceive as a key fixture as much as the football public might? e.g.. close loss either way no big deal. Sydney win by 4 + Goals people will be talking about hawthorns long term hopes given they go back 3 games etc. Sydney lose and they are neck and neck with the hawks on the ladder..

 

[kaiserchief13]

According to this Collingwood is going to struggle to beat the Suns. How accurate are the predictions?

 

[TBellicious]

According to this Collingwood is going to struggle to beat the Suns. How accurate are the predictions?

Collingwoods form is severely overrated in my opinion.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Dear West Coast. Please go away. We don't like how close you are

 

[Final Siren]

According to this Collingwood is going to struggle to beat the Suns. How accurate are the predictions?

INCREDIBLY ACCURATE

No, what you really should be asking is why it's assessing them this way. The answer is:

• The Pies started 2015 ranked quite low on the back of a series of abysmal late-2014 performances. (You can say this was due to injury, though.)
  
• They beat Brisbane (just), St Kilda (comprehensively), Essendon (20 pts), and Carlton (comprehensively). The squiggle rates three of those as terrible teams and the Bombers as mediocre.
• They lost to Adelaide (by 27 in Melbourne), Geelong (by 41), and Richmond (just). Adelaide is a mid-to-high table team, Geelong is mid-table, and Richmond is low-to-mid.

So essentially the Pies haven't played anyone really good, and haven't been great against most of the teams they have played.

 

[JD-Roo]

Some down time at work had me going through some older seasons.

The prediction for the '75 Grand Final result was "North Melbourne by 0"

I assume this was a predicted result of less than "half-a-point", rounded down to zero?

Could we have had the draw two years earlier?

 

[Pusswah]

May not be a popular question but;

Does the squiggle overrate thrashings of poor teams?

The only teams that West Coast have beaten that are worth anything are Port and GWS - GWS who are hard to read (young team travelling across the country) and Port (having a miserable season).

This week West Coast have the Saints - could get nasty again.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Dear West Coast. Please go away. We don't like how close you are

It is quite possible we are just lost...