Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Spoken4]

You mean, how did Peel thunder go against St Kilda last year

Dunno, Freo always struggles to punish sides offensively the way that Hawthorn and now WCE do. Just doesn't seem to be the Ross Lyon way.

 

[MIKE85]

Dunno, Freo always struggles to punish sides offensively the way that Hawthorn and now WCE do. Just doesn't seem to be the Ross Lyon way.

Yeah that is true, but when you're 2 games clear on top of the ladder, and very hard to beat at home, GF looks pretty close to a certainty so not sure if huge scoring power is all that important. Once in the GF swans have shown better than anyone, that defense can win it. Who would've thought a team would win a flag kicking 8 goals

 

[Spoken4]

Yeah that is true, but when you're 2 games clear on top of the ladder, and very hard to beat at home, GF looks pretty close to a certainty so not sure if huge scoring power is all that important. Once in the GF swans have shown better than anyone, that defense can win it. Who would've thought a team would win a flag kicking 8 goals

Yeah, wish I felt as certain as you. But Port showed last year how things can come undone as they went from 10.1 at the end of round 12 (first on the ladder) to 12.6 at the end of round 19 (fifth on the ladder). Freo still need to improve their goal scoring if they are going to having any chance of a GF placing or win.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Fremantle and Sydney in a race to the rest of the pack.

 

[Hawkk]

Round 13, 2015

Animated!

Good week for the guy doing squiggles, who gets to see his team within a sniff of the action for once! Yeah! I knew there was a reason I was doing this. The Tigers were pretty bad for the first six rounds, but since then have gotten better and better.

From here, they have a pretty good run home, too. Top 4 isn't out of the question, but requires a mini-implosion from at least one of Fremantle, Sydney, West Coast, or Hawthorn. That is hard to see, since the team with the worst current form, Fremantle, is two games clear on top, while the team with the fewest wins, Hawthorn, is in the best form. But it's also uncommon for the top 4 to remain unchanged after Round 13.

The Hawks enjoyed another good week for doing not very much: They defeated Essendon by precisely the 38 points the squiggle demanded of them, which was enough to stretch the gap to their rivals as Sydney and Fremantle slid.

And at the other end of the chart, it was a fourth good result in a row for Carlton, who continued their upward trend with a 34-point win over Gold Coast.

Another bad week for Fremantle, who aren't just underperforming, but are doing it in the worst possible way, by failing to score. This means they continue to drift further away from the area that almost every premiership team of the last 20 years has landed. The Dockers may well still finish on top of the Home & Away ladder, because they've extracted wins from all their close games (three now by exactly 7 points), but the squiggle believes in dishonourable wins, and this isn't the sort of form that wins flags.

Ladder predictor says:

Live squiggle, explanation why teams don't always get credited for tips in the ladder predictor, etc

If this comes to fruition Hawthorn will live to rue throwing away the round 2 Essendon and round 8 Sydney games (I would throw in the GWS loss but that didn't sting as much...) as those two losses could be the difference between a positive probability (MCG) and negative probability (Subiaco) in finals.

Its been very frustrating in light of...



Still if we can somehow pull an upset win against the Swans or Eagles and hope that the Swans / Eagle drop one or two winnable games in the run home there is still hope for us...

 

[Hawkk]

Fremantle and Sydney in a race to the rest of the pack.

Up until a month ago I thought it was Fremantle's to lose (although they are now starting to look wobbly). My money is on the Swans but they wouldn't want to drop too many in the run home - if they can avoid the Hawks at the MCG in the finals I think they've got it in them to get redemption for last year...

 

[Paul Kersey]

Up until a month ago I thought it was Fremantle's to lose (although they are now starting to look wobbly). My money is on the Swans but they wouldn't want to drop too many in the run home - if they can avoid the Hawks at the MCG in the finals I think they've got it in them to get redemption for last year...

I don't think Fremantle can win it. Can't score enough IMO. Swans or Hawthorn, yes. I'm backing Hawthorn.

 

[Paul Kersey]

If this comes to fruition Hawthorn will live to rue throwing away the round 2 Essendon and round 8 Sydney games (I would throw in the GWS loss but that didn't sting as much...) as those two losses could be the difference between a positive probability (MCG) and negative probability (Subiaco) in finals.

Its been very frustrating in light of...

View attachment 147911

Still if we can somehow pull an upset win against the Swans or Eagles and hope that the Swans / Eagle drop one or two winnable games in the run home there is still hope for us...

I think we can beat them both interstate. Wouldn't shock me if Port beat Sydney this week.

 

[poshman]

Up until a month ago I thought it was Fremantle's to lose (although they are now starting to look wobbly). My money is on the Swans but they wouldn't want to drop too many in the run home - if they can avoid the Hawks at the MCG in the finals I think they've got it in them to get redemption for last year...

The only positive out of freo's current form is that they have got the points in down games. Hopefully they build from here, get Johnson back and some creativity and run from the back line and they start to look threatening again. The way your mob can put on scores is scary good though. Will be still be tough if you have to play outside of melbourne in the finals though.

 

[Final Siren]

This might be an unreasonable request Final Siren but is there a way you could post the projected ladder assuming that all the squiggle predictions are 100% correct? Like for example, let's say a team was projected to have a 55% chance of winning, rather than record that as .55 wins on the projected ladder, record it as a full win including percentage (factoring in the projected score and subsequent margin differential). Would just be curious to see that!

I do have that, because it was the first version of the ladder predictor. Now I call it the DRAMATIC LADDER PREDICTOR, because it's basically an exaggerated version, where the best teams never lose and the worst teams never win.

1. WEST COAST 19-3
2. SYDNEY 18-4
3. FREMANTLE 17-5
4. HAWTHORN 16-6
5. RICHMOND 16-6
6. NORTH MELBOURNE 15-7
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS 13-9
8. COLLINGWOOD 12-10
9. Geelong 12-10
10. GWS 11-11
11. Adelaide 10-12
12. Port Adelaide 10-12
13. Essendon 9-13
14. Melbourne 8-14
15. St Kilda 4-18
16. Carlton 3-19
17. Brisbane 3-19
18. Gold Coast 2-20

 

[NarniMagic]

I do have that, because it was the first version of the ladder predictor. Now I call it the DRAMATIC LADDER PREDICTOR, because it's basically an exaggerated version, where the best teams never lose and the worst teams never win.

1. WEST COAST 19-3
2. SYDNEY 18-4
3. FREMANTLE 17-5
4. HAWTHORN 16-6
5. RICHMOND 16-6
6. NORTH MELBOURNE 15-7
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS 13-9
8. COLLINGWOOD 12-10
9. Geelong 12-10
10. GWS 11-11
11. Adelaide 10-12
12. Port Adelaide 10-12
13. Essendon 9-13
14. Melbourne 8-14
15. St Kilda 4-18
16. Carlton 3-19
17. Brisbane 3-19
18. Gold Coast 2-20

Very interesting that West Coast are predicted favourites in all the rest of their games, didn't expect that!

 

[poshman]

Very interesting that West Coast are predicted favourites in all the rest of their games, didn't expect that!

Swans - Hawks and Freo to go. Cant believe they are favourites in all. Havent beaten us in a while and it is technically away for them.

 

[MIKE85]

Very interesting that West Coast are predicted favourites in all the rest of their games, didn't expect that!

Yeah I don't get that. Although if it's all done on current form then I can see it, but the thing is, 1 bad loss, or scatchy win, and it all changes. I'd have us favourites, on this years, & past form, for most games, exepct Freo, Swans & Hawks, maybe 50/50 agains the crows away.

 

[Final Siren]

Very interesting that West Coast are predicted favourites in all the rest of their games, didn't expect that!

Yeah, their fixture is pretty amazing, especially in the next month or so. They have home games against teams where they need it (Hawks, Sydney), and travel to play the ones where they don't (Gold Coast, Melbourne...). Plus an "away" game against Freo.

 

[Suma Magic]

I still think we will miss top 4. But some optimism is gradually creeping in.

Just still don't believe we are good enough to get there. Think Hawks, Freo and sydney will beat us fairly easily.

 

[MIKE85]

I still think we will miss top 4. But some optimism is gradually creeping in.

Just still don't believe we are good enough to get there. Think Hawks, Freo and sydney will beat us fairly easily.

I reckon we'll almost need 17 wins to get top 4, that means we can only drop 2 more games out of our last 10, I think we're more likely to go 6-4 maybe even 5-5 than we are to go 8-2 or better.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Yeah, their fixture is pretty amazing, especially in the next month or so. They have home games against teams where they need it (Hawks, Sydney), and travel to play the ones where they don't (Gold Coast, Melbourne...). Plus an "away" game against Freo.

They've had a dream draw. There is no excuse for them to miss the GF.

 

[swiftdog]

I reckon we'll almost need 17 wins to get top 4, that means we can only drop 2 more games out of our last 10, I think we're more likely to go 6-4 maybe even 5-5 than we are to go 8-2 or better.

I see what you mean but regardless of that Collingwood would need to go 9-1 to get to 17 wins while Richmond and Adelaide would need to go 10-0 and North can't get there at all. I can't see any of the above happening. I think 15-16 wins is more likely for that 4th spot and West Coast are in the box seat for good reason. I don't think Collingwood can get there (unless we beat Hawthorn this week somehow), I see Adelaide as too inconsistent also. Richmond and North are the two that are probably good enough but they're coming from 2 and 3 games behind and bucketloads of percentage respectively so I'm not sure they'll be able to make up the difference

 

[MIKE85]

They've had a dream draw. There is no excuse for them to miss the GF.

As opposed to the Hawks draw?? Everbody talks about our draw, but Hawks hasn't been much harder, and Collingwoods has probably been easier, yet nobody mentions them. Majority of the top 8 so far have had pretty similar draws. Also before the year started, double up games against the Crows & GC looked much harder than they may happen to be, based on 2014 form.

 

[Suma Magic]

I reckon we'll almost need 17 wins to get top 4, that means we can only drop 2 more games out of our last 10, I think we're more likely to go 6-4 maybe even 5-5 than we are to go 8-2 or better.

I think 16 wins will get us there. Pies can only lose twice more to finish on 16 wins, Tigers once more.

15 wins and a good percentage could still get us 4th. I think we will win 5 our last 10 and just miss out.

 

[MIKE85]

I see what you mean but regardless of that Collingwood would need to go 9-1 to get to 17 wins while Richmond and Adelaide would need to go 10-0 and North can't get there at all. I can't see any of the above happening. I think 15-16 wins is more likely for that 4th spot and West Coast are in the box seat for good reason. I don't think Collingwood can get there (unless we beat Hawthorn this week somehow), I see Adelaide as too inconsistent also. Richmond and North are the two that are probably good enough but they're coming from 2 and 3 games behind and bucketloads of percentage respectively so I'm not sure they'll be able to make up the difference

Our game at Etihad in a few weeks is going to be massive!!!!

 

[Suma Magic]

They've had a dream draw. There is no excuse for them to miss the GF.

Can our excuse be that we're not good enough?

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I reckon we'll almost need 17 wins to get top 4, that means we can only drop 2 more games out of our last 10, I think we're more likely to go 6-4 maybe even 5-5 than we are to go 8-2 or better.

Huh? We're going to pretty much 2 games ahead of 5th, assuming Hawthorn win and after factoring in % after this weekend assuming we beat Melbourne.

I think 15 wins will still be enough for 4th spot. Much like last year.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Can our excuse be that we're not good enough?

But you're pretty good. And you've done well at the G!

If you were playing Freo at the G in the GF...you'd win it easily.

 

[Suma Magic]

But you're pretty good. And you've done well at the G!

If you were playing Freo at the G in the GF...you'd win it easily.

I just can't see it. Our best win is a close one against Richmond. I just don't think we're that good.