Mega Thread Possible trades in 2015 for the Crows

[1990crow]

I don't know if you heard but i was up to over 1000

 

[Vader]

You can not change that.

You can not use the AFL market as direct evidence to support your arguement prior to the trade and then ignore that same direct evidence after the trade.

They have to remain the same as that is market evidence by those who do this job.

But there is no direct evidence after the trade. If anything, the post-trade evidence points towards a lower valuation.

His value in 2012 is fixed. His value in 2015 is not fixed, and is definitely not the same as it was in 2012.

 

[dogs105]

The AFC tweet is interesting. Trading Mackay? Bringing in another player?

*Hope this isn't seen as bullying Mackay

Would the social media person know the trade strategies?

 

[Pugsley]

The AFC tweet is interesting. Trading Mackay? Bringing in another player?

*Hope this isn't seen as bullying Mackay

You will do as we tell you so stop making us look stupid [emoji4]

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

No to aish from me aswell......poor character.

lol wot

 

[1990crow]

Would the social media person know the trade strategies?

They've teased us about upcoming announcements before.

 

[mulz]

lol wot

Hes given brisbane nothing now wants out to the club of his choice.....spoilt brat.

 

[Pugsley]

I don't know if you heard but i was up to over 1000

 

[Alex99]

I can't change the value that he was assigned 3 years ago, but it's patently absurd to state that a player's value doesn't change from the day that they are drafted. If that were the case then Nat Fyfe's value would still be #20, when he's currently the #1 player in the AFL. Menzel's value was pick #11 in 2012, in 2015 it's considerably less than that.

Actually, I like your banking comparison. If I bought US$200 3 years ago, I would have paid around $190 (give or take), as the Australian dollar was briefly above parity with the US dollar. If I bought US$200 today, I would have to pay around $290, because the Australian dollar is now only worth around 70c US. The Australian dollar has fallen from around 108c to 70c when compared to the US dollar. The same thing has happened with Menzel's value - he's depreciated, having not lived up to the expectations of a #11 draftee.

Players' trade values don't remain constant. A new draftee might, arguably, hold their original value for 1-2 years. After that their valuation becomes increasingly based on their actual performance, and less on the potential they showed as a junior. Some players will rise in value, because they perform better than their original draft position indicated (eg. Nat Fyfe). Some players will fall in value, because they fail to perform to the level expected of them. Menzel falls into the latter category.

How can I state that with confidence? Because it makes a damn sight more sense than your ludicrous suggestion that he has maintained his 2012 valuation, despite having performed poorly in the interval. How can you justify your argument that his value hasn't decreased in the intervening 3 years?

You could do that, if you could find some supporting evidence to show his value has dropped. The Aust currency index supports the value of your monetary shift.

However, can not show me a "professional" who support your trade decrease.

 

[1990crow]

lol wot

Player doesn't choose Crows = poor character.
I don't like the sound of Menzel's personality but, he's good at football so I don't care so much.

 

[Bacon8]

Carlton traded pick 28 (677) for Plowman (pick 3 - 2234pts), Sumner (pick 10 -1395) & other lesser drafted players.

Does that mean Kedge is worth 2952, or almost Pick 1?

Or are points irrelevant?

 

[mickfaxis]

Just haven't seen him around lately, and we all know Grotto is not one to just browse

Traded to the Geelong board for an emoticon.

 

[Vader]

The value of a product is what someone is willing to pay for it, doesn't matter their circumstances.

Roughly I see it like,

5 year contract, big money = top 5 pick
5 year contract, average money = top 10 pick
4 year contract = top 20 pick
3 year contract = top 30 pick

Carlton are desperate.. Really desperate. The fact that they've offered Kerridge a 3-year contract shows just how desperate they are.

Adelaide used 32 players this year. Kerride stands out as the only one of those 32 who was never actually selected in the starting 22. Even if we rate him ahead of Sam Shaw (who was only selected twice), that still makes him the 31st ranked player on our team list this year. There is no way that a player who is the 31st ranked on our team list, and doesn't get selected for a single game, is worth a pick inside the top-30.

** Even if you exclude Martin & Wright, who are either delisted or soon will be, he's still only the 29th best - and still wasn't selected for a single game.

 

[mulz]

Player doesn't choose Crows = poor character.
I don't like the sound of Menzel's personality but, he's good at football so I don't care so much.

Menzel and carlton was amicable. If carlton wanted him he would of stayed.....aish is not comparable. Hes screwed the lions over

 

[DJ75]

Last minute offers;

Pick 9, David Mackay and Sam Shaw for pick 4 (Essendon)?

Pick 9, 13 and Shaw to Sydney for Parker and pick 23?

Any takers?

 

[dogs105]

Carlton traded pick 28 (677) for Plowman (pick 3 - 2234pts), Sumner (pick 10 -1395) & other lesser drafted players.

Does that mean Kedge is worth 2952, or almost Pick 1?

Or are points irrelevant?

Yep, and Menzel is worth 3629 points, and draft pick -2

 

[macca23]

Wouldn't work. Pick 71 is worthless, and Pick 13 - Pick 17 = Pick 57. Aish is worth more than Pick 57

Collingwood are offering two second round picks: Pick 28 and a future pick (~30, let's say). That's equivalent to Pick 11.

Trading Pick 13 + Mackay for Aish + Pick 17 would mean Mackay is rated as a late first round pick, around Pick 15, assuming we have to match the value Collingwood have offered for Aish.

No deal, Brisbane reject it

Thanks mate - appreciate that. Into the dust bin it goes.

 

[Alex99]

But there is no direct evidence after the trade. If anything, the post-trade evidence points towards a lower valuation.

His value in 2012 is fixed. His value in 2015 is not fixed, and is definitely not the same as it was in 2012.

Says who? you

We are not experts, so we can only deal in concrete facts. If you are suggesting, we can ignore concrete facts and simply use "gut feel", this becomes irrelevant as I would have been happy to pay between 25 and 30 where as you wouldn't.

The concrete facts can not change unless you can add some new data that supports your shift in draft position.

 

[Vader]

But they are the buyer, therefore - they have the ablity to set the market value.

"something is only worth, what someone is willing to pay for it"

If they are willing to pay it, that becomes his market value.

And Adelaide are the buyers of Menzel. If we valued him as pick #17, then that's his value too - and hence Kerridge's value is 40+.

We may actually both be right...
Adelaide may well have valued Menzel at 17, and Kerridge at 40+, with Carlton rating them at 11 and 32. There's nothing in this deal to say that both clubs valued the players equally. All we know is that both clubs agreed Menzel = Kerridge + 28.

 

[1990crow]

Menzel and carlton was amicable. If carlton wanted him he would of stayed.....aish is not comparable. Hes screwed the lions over

Could you blame him though? Sounds like Leppitsch is a bit of an ego maniac, poor facilities, poor on field results, questionable leadership under Rockliff.

 

[hendo8888]

Interesting to note, that on afc.com.au, they have recently removed the retired/delisted/traded players (Pods, Martin, Reilly, Siggins, Dangerfield) and they have updated the Senior list with both O'Brien and Kelly on that list. Kerridge is still there, so it's not completely updated and the 4 trade ins aren't added yet either.
But it suggests that the plan is to upgrade both Kelly and O'Brien, which just doesn't appear possible at this point.
You'd have to assume that Wright isn't being re-signed, and even then, there's only space for 1 draft pick.
I'm not sure what the plan is at this point.

 

[Magma]

really is a lot of bickering over nothing

 

[Pugsley]

Could you blame him though? Sounds like Leppitsch is a bit of an ego maniac, poor facilities, poor on field results, questionable leadership under Rockliff.

He sounds like he needs to watch anger management again.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I have zero interest, and very little respect for Aish since he nominated Collingwood when they had no currency to pay for him.

Hey it worked for Gorringe nominating Port last year!

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

Hes given brisbane nothing now wants out to the club of his choice.....spoilt brat.

If you had any clue about James Aish, then you'd know that what you've just written is total rubbish.