2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[The Speaker]

I thought you mean liberal in the American sense, which generally means left-winger.

No. I am an Australian, I use liberalism in the sense that we and the rest of the world does.

 

[Sellout Scully]

Still think Rubio is very much in the race. He was very strong in the debate and I suspect several Kasich supporters will switch their allegiance on Tuesday and move to Rubio.

If he gets close to Trump in several states this will give him key momentum. Trump did very well in Nevada, but he's taken a few hits and hasn't had the benefit of campaigning in person at many of the Super Tuesday states, something which has helped him with South Carolina and New Hampshire.

The flip side of this, if Trump beats Cruz in Texas he will be very hard to stop. Alaska is very much up for grabs between Cruz and Trump, although it does not have many delegates.

My predictions for Super Tuesday:

Trump: Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia,
Rubio: Arkansas, Minnesota
Cruz: Texas

??? Colorado, Wyoming

 

[BoxMatrix]

Does this open the door for any independent runs? Bloomberg? Romney?

If you're talking about Mitt Romney, he said he didn't want to run for president this time around. He would've probably won the nomination if he ran.

If Trump leads the delegate count there is no way the RNC will not endorse him, it would beggar belief because it is pretty much pushing the self-destruct button on a Republican win in the presidential race. I hope it happens though because the lulz would be tremendous and Clinton/Sanders would have a free ride to the White House.

I suspect in any event the Dems will claw back significant ground in the Congressional elections.

The RNC will have to endorse Trump. Or else he'll run as an independent, costing the GOP the presidency. Unless Cruz wins the nomination somehow, I feel like the Republicans will win the presidency this general election. Republicans are turning out in record numbers this year, while the Democrats are lagging behind in numbers. The Dems will win the Senate though.

 

[Richo83]

Still think Rubio is very much in the race. He was very strong in the debate and I suspect several Kasich supporters will switch their allegiance on Tuesday and move to Rubio.

If he gets close to Trump in several states this will give him key momentum. Trump did very well in Nevada, but he's taken a few hits and hasn't had the benefit of campaigning in person at many of the Super Tuesday states, something which has helped him with South Carolina and New Hampshire.

The flip side of this, if Trump beats Cruz in Texas he will be very hard to stop. Alaska is very much up for grabs between Cruz and Trump, although it does not have many delegates.

My predictions for Super Tuesday:

Trump: Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia,
Rubio: Arkansas, Minnesota
Cruz: Texas

??? Colorado, Wyoming

Not sure about that, Kasich is sticking around until Ohio, in which if he wins, and then maybe picks up a state or two, he'll say that he's a centrist candidate with a chance and go to the convention. But he's not quitting until Ohio and I'd say that most of his supporters (admittedly, there's not many of them) will stick around. I can't see Kasich getting to the general election, but if he wins Ohio, he will.

Rubio may finish with a solid second in a few states, but he actually needs to gain on Trump and actually beat him for delegates, if he goes into the convention with less delegates than Trump, and the gop manufactures a Rubio nomination, I would expect massive voter backlash.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Bernie is finally cooked. Super Tuesday will be anther bloodbath. He won't see out March.

Now just waiting on the Republican nomination...

Sanders has more chance of winning the Democratic nomination than the non-Trumps do the Republican nomination.

Clinton vs Trump can be all but penned in now.

 

[Gollo]

I thought you mean liberal in the American sense, which generally means left-winger.

Aside from the obvious irony in the LNP's name, in Australia currently, I don't think there is anywhere in the developed world where liberalism is 'up in the air' as a state of position. It means left-wing most places.

 

[The Speaker]

Aside from the obvious irony in the LNP's name, in Australia currently, I don't think there is anywhere in the developed world where liberalism is 'up in the air' as a state of position. It means left-wing most places.

you might want to check that one

 

[Lebbo73]

If you're talking about Mitt Romney, he said he didn't want to run for president this time around. He would've probably won the nomination if he ran.

The RNC will have to endorse Trump. Or else he'll run as an independent, costing the GOP the presidency. Unless Cruz wins the nomination somehow, I feel like the Republicans will win the presidency this general election. Republicans are turning out in record numbers this year, while the Democrats are lagging behind in numbers. The Dems will win the Senate though.

For interest sake, why do you think the Dems will win the Senate?

 

[pjcrows]

I'm also curious why the gop hate Trump, is it because he's got a mixed history in truly supporting conservative posoitions like healthcare? Or is it because business wants the tpp and wants flexible labor laws? Or both? Something else?

He opposes the TPP. He supports - or at least is impartial to - Planned Parenthood. He doesn't oppose abortion. He isn't openly Christian. He has supported Democratic candidates in the past. He lauded Hillary for decades.

He is a faux Republican. He doesn't give a crap about core Republican neo-con values. He's everything the modern GOP establishment hate - a man with power who won't bow to what they want.

The lead up to the convention will be sensational viewing.

 

[The Speaker]

He opposes the TPP. He supports - or at least is impartial to - Planned Parenthood. He doesn't oppose abortion. He isn't openly Christian. He has supported Democratic candidates in the past. He lauded Hillary for decades.

He is a faux Republican. He doesn't give a crap about core Republican neo-con values. He's everything the modern GOP establishment hate - a man with power who won't bow to what they want.

The lead up to the convention will be sensational viewing.

*didn't.

 

[pjcrows]

*didn't.

Still doesn't and everyone knows it.

 

[happy_eagle]

The big issue the GOP have with Trump is that some of his previous stances read like a Democratic candidate


- Favors abortion rights but respects opposition. (Dec 1999) - (He has reversed his position on this since, but isnt as strong as Cruz or Rubio on it)
- After Supreme Court vote, gay marriage is a reality. (Aug 2015) - (Alot of Republicans now share a similar view, despite the crazy Cruz/Huckabee types)
- Legalize drugs and use tax revenue to fund drug education. (Apr 2011)
- Maybe some climate change is manmade, but not all. (Jun 2015) (Ironically this was shortly after he called climate change a hoax)
- Partner with environmentalists when undertaking projects. (Apr 2010)
- SuperPACs are a disaster and cause dishonesty. (Oct 2015)
- For assault weapon ban, waiting period, & background check. (Jul 2000)
- We must have universal health care. (Jul 2000)
- One-time 14.25% tax on wealth, to erase national debt. (Nov 1999)
- I'm pro-military but I opposed invading Iraq in 2003. (Sep 2015)
http://ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm

The only real area that Trump is a conservative is fiscally, and thats because he runs a giant corporation.

 

[The Speaker]

Still doesn't and everyone knows it.

'Everyone knows it' is not an argument.

 

[medusala]

Hehe. Token non entity gets one of the defining reforms of US history passed in the teeth of relentless opposition.

Obamacare? lol, utter trainwreck. Premiums up and heaps of people losing coverage. Epic failure. US healthcare inflation is about the worlds worst and he made made it even worse.

Intelligence failures on Bush's watch. Catastrophic ones. This stuff can't be laid at Clinton's door.

Same people behind the scenes. Even hope and change puppet kept on Bush's people ie Gates etc. Its just a continuation of the same neo cons and nothing will change under Hilary if she gets in (ditto Rubio)

Trump isn't a continuation of that, hence the outrage and stories today re a "coup" if he gets elected

 

[medusala]

Aside from the obvious irony in the LNP's name, in Australia currently, I don't think there is anywhere in the developed world where liberalism is 'up in the air' as a state of position. It means left-wing most places.

Its a bastardised US concept. Lickspittles like nick clegg tried to transport it across the Atlantic and fell on his face. Most people other than Mal can grasp that liberal and liberty mean freedom from the state.

Guardianista expression du jour is "progressive"

 

[sherb]

John Oliver. Worth a watch.

 

[ralphmalph]

Hehe. Token non entity gets one of the defining reforms of US history passed in the teeth of relentless opposition.

Article re Obama's work: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/obama-biggest-achievements-213487?o=2

 

[pjcrows]

'Everyone knows it' is not an argument.

? He clearly doesn't oppose abortion but is saying words to that effect purely to get the nomination.

Sort of like Clinton saying she'll take on Wall Street. Pure bullsh*t.

 

[medusala]

Article re Obama's work: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/obama-biggest-achievements-213487?o=2

Forcing people to spend on healthcare (often to take out policies they don't want) and calling it gdp growth - genius. Amusing article though, attempting to defend his stimulus and auto bailiouts, made me laugh

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/healthcare 2015.jpg

 

[The Punter]

I take it that graph is about non-government spending, and the article it is posted in response to is about government spending.

So Meds rails against government spending, an article is produced suggesting Obama is reducing government spending, and Meds posts a graph about non-government spending.

Reminds me of that Rowdy Roddy Piper quote: "Just when you think you have all the answers, I change the questions."

Obama was elected promising to ensure more Americans had health insurance while the government reduced costs. Costs are now increasing at a much slower rate and more Americans are covered.

Considering the 2016 field on either side ... thank God that in Australia we do not have term limits.

 

[medusala]

I take it that graph is about non-government spending, and the article it is posted in response to is about government spending.
.

Obamacare forced a lot of people off their current policies because they didn't meet mandated requirements (didn't matter if they were happy or not). Hence increase in spending. Hence it being labelled a tax. Who voted for a large tax increase? Obamacare will see health spending rise as a % of gdp.

See the below graph for health care inflation falling pre obamacare

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/u-s-health-care-spending-is-on-the-rise-again

.

Considering the 2016 field on either side ... thank God that in Australia we do not have term limits.

??? You think Obama is better than all of them? Seriously?

 

[medusala]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...n-ever-as-opponents-launch-toxic-attacks.html

A CNN national poll released on Monday gave the maverick billionaire 49 per cent support, his highest-ever figure, and more than the other four remaining candidates combined

 

[james Dean]

The only thing Trump is way off on is his thoughts on Climate Change.

 

[james Dean]

John Oliver. Worth a watch.

Turned it off after he used Politifact as a source. Absolute garbage website which has one of the most obvious left wing agendas you will ever see