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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Pretty sure the squiggle has Freo right where it should be
Yeah, agree. Since 2013 it's had Freo as way out east, way too defensive. Considering the performance, they've slipped a bit. Good to see the Dogs improve so much. Would be concerning for any Freo supporter to see the best defensive, or 2nd best defensive side of the last 4-5 years sliding so much.
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Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Will be interesting to see how long the Squiggle takes to catch up to the Essendon situation. A good test for its flexibility for change between seasons
Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Also love that the current end of season predication has North playing Richmond in the Elimination Final again and winning by two points. Punt Road would be burnt down!!
Also love that the current end of season predication has North playing Richmond in the Elimination Final again and winning by two points. Punt Road would be burnt down!!
Oh FFS not again. Two lost GFs to the Hawks in a row? Shoot me.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
Look man, I'm fixing for a Squiggle hit. Got any, Final Siren?
He's probably recovering from his food hangover after Easter.
Hey Final Siren has this bloke stolen your homework...?
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...premiership-with-defence-20160322-gnokkd.html
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...premiership-with-defence-20160322-gnokkd.html
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
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- Aug 18, 2009
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- #5,537
Round 1, 2016
Welcome to Squiggle 2016! Thank you for your interest.
Animated!
Lots of upward & leftward movement! Since it's Round 1, here is a refresher: Teams move up the squiggle chart when they kick higher scores than expected, and leftward when their opposition kicks a higher score than expected.
Most often, teams move on the diagonal: up & right when they record a big win (kicking a high score while restricting their opposition to a low one), and down & left when they have a bad loss (scoring poorly while allowing a high opposition score).
Up & left means both teams scored more highly than expected. This happened in West Coast vs Brisbane, Port Adelaide vs St Kilda, and North vs Adelaide (just). In two more games, only one team scored more highly than expected, but the aggregate was still high: Geelong vs Hawthorn and Richmond vs Carlton.
So it was high-scoring. And while there will be lots of discussion about why this might be -- the out-of-bounds rule, or the interchange limit -- I wonder if it's simply because good attacks win premierships. A ton of evidence has mounted for this, especially over the last five years, to the point where in 2015 we saw three defence-heavy teams (Fremantle, Sydney, Richmond) crash out of the finals as fast as physically possible while the attack specialists went on to contest the Grand Final.
Even in the simplest possible terms, looking at the "Premiership Standard" of 100 Points For and 86 Points Against, we can see that this means an average defence and an excellent attack.
Hopefully Round 1 isn't an aberration, because it's great to watch.
Best week for the Bulldogs, who the squiggle is happy to slot straight into the Top 4. Fremantle were rated no better than a mid-table team already, but even so 103-38 is a real walloping, and the squiggle loves it when you keep a team to a low score. So the Dogs came out of Round 1 the best, especially since teams around them didn't do much.
Geelong also impressed, and most people probably think they look seriously underrated here. That's because we know about Geelong's off-season pick-ups, while the squiggle doesn't, and is more concerned about their mediocre late-2015 form. If the Cats really are a new team this year, it will take them a few weeks to reach their rightful spot on the chart.
Also a good week for Sydney, who looked a lot like a Top 4 team.
It took until halfway through the Gold Coast vs Essendon game for the squiggle to drop the Bombers down to last spot on the ladder predictor. The Bombers were rated as a bottom-3 team before they lost 12 players to CAS, so they didn't have far to fall. The question is where they bottom out.
Ladder Predictor!
Squiggle Flagpole! Teams are arranged left to right in the order they are expected to finish the Home & Away season, and the height of each flag is their likelihood of winning the premiership.
And in comic sans. Aarrgghh my eyes!
Chaisa
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 2, 2013
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The flagpole rates high attacking sides over high defensive sides, and Adelaide's attack is a fair bit better than most of the 3-9 category.
At least that's what I suspect.
Millky95
Starchild > You
Final Siren could you put in a marker for the premiership standard we could turn on and off like other teams and the premiership cups? It'd be a cool addition to see who the Squiggle rates in that area
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #5,542
"Premiership standard" is a different way of looking at the same data. It's really a simple version of Squiggle. I don't think you get anything extra by adding the two together.
The good thing about "Premiership standard" is it's simple and objective. You just need to know whether your team has the required 100 Points For and 86 Points Against, and if so, it's a good shot for a flag, and if not, then it's not. And this is a pretty reliable guideline.
The bad thing is it's not so simple in real life: usually multiple teams are "Premiership Standard" each year, and occasionally a team has won despite not being "Premiership Standard."
Most of all, it's based on Points For & Points Against at the end of the year, once fixture bias has evened out. So AFAIK it's not even supposed to work mid-year, or after Round 1.
I miss the line too to measure where a team sits proportionately to premiership winning attacks and defences
- Aug 18, 2009
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Yep, Flagpole likes teams that show the potential to kick explosive scores. And Adelaide are carrying in good form from late 2015:
- R19: def Rich by 36
- R20: def Ess by 112
- R21: def Bris by 87
- R22: def West Coast by 57
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Shouldnt take long before squiggles has them sitting smack bang in the middle of the pack in all areas considered.
JaxsonB
Team Captain
- Aug 10, 2015
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Good start by the Squiggle - 8 out of 9, can't complain about that. Even manged to get Melbourne right, which seemed to be a prediction against favouritism (though only tipping a margin of 4, Squiggle wasn't very confident 
).
Went against my better judgment and had a multi on Port (by 11.5+) and West Coast (leading at HT and FT), and while Port made me sweat for 3 quarters, both teams fell into the higher accuracy expected of 'confident predictions'. So that was nice.
Intriguing to see that next week Squiggle is so confident in Freo over Gold Coast. I don't think Freo will smash them at least, and won't be surprised at all if Gold Coast gets the upset. I imagine getting over Sydney in last year's QF did enough for their end of season position (I believe Squiggle had them tipped to lose that game, given that it couldn't account for Sydney's injuries) that their position is that far ahead of GC's for round 2, to get that tip.
).Went against my better judgment and had a multi on Port (by 11.5+) and West Coast (leading at HT and FT), and while Port made me sweat for 3 quarters, both teams fell into the higher accuracy expected of 'confident predictions'. So that was nice.
Intriguing to see that next week Squiggle is so confident in Freo over Gold Coast. I don't think Freo will smash them at least, and won't be surprised at all if Gold Coast gets the upset. I imagine getting over Sydney in last year's QF did enough for their end of season position (I believe Squiggle had them tipped to lose that game, given that it couldn't account for Sydney's injuries) that their position is that far ahead of GC's for round 2, to get that tip.
Although only a small margin of difference, why is it that Hawks are predicted to win by 17 this Sunday, but only by 5 on Grand Final?
I'd have thought their finals record would bump up the margin by more?
Both games at the MCG.
I'd have thought their finals record would bump up the margin by more?
Both games at the MCG.
- May 4, 2013
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Grand Final prediction is a different algorithm
SJ
Premium Platinum
Grand Final uses a different algorithm.
Yeah I know, but surely it should INCREASE the margin, given how well Hawks have done in Grand Finals?
I understand they've had some close Prelims in the last few years and we beat them in a final, but Hawks finals record is WAY better than ours.
Anyway, it's not important, just something I immediately noticed.
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