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Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

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Round 5 update will be going live soon, as soon as the AFLCA Votes get released. Everything else is ready

On the point of Player Ratings, how Bontempelli is the 8th ranked player in the competition with 572 points, and Cripps is the 258th with 277.6 astounds me. The ratings are far too slow to catch up to actual form, however I think we will see Cripps' score skyrocket throughout the season and towards the back end when he starts to get up towards 40 games played he will be right up there in the top 25. When looking at these ratings it's fairly easy to say they are generally about 15-30 games behind where an actual player is, so I can't wait to see how our youth are rated this time next year, because I think it will be significantly improved.
 

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Ayyye, we picked up a win, Patrick Cripps spikes the coaches votes graph all by himself and the player rating average trends upwards for the first time this year, good signs for the Blues!


Round 4.png

GAME 5 Rnd 5 - WIN vs Fremantle (72-68)
10 Youth Players: Jacob Weitering, Ciaran Byrne, Lachie Plowman, Sam Docherty, Liam Sumner, Jed Lamb, Patrick Cripps, Sam Kerridge, Dylan Buckley, Charlie Curnow
OUT: Nick Graham (omitted)
IN: Liam Jones
Coaches Votes: Patrick Cripps (9)
Player Ratings Points:

S. Docherty - 305.7 (-)
P. Cripps - 277.6 (+)
D. Buckley - 151.4 (+)
S. Kerridge - 113.3 (+)
L. Plowman - 83.7 (+)
J. Lamb - 68.2 (-)
J. Weitering - 57.8 (+)
C. Curnow - 33.9 (+)
C. Byrne - 30.3 (+)
L. Sumner - 13.7 (-)

Avg: 113.56

Da dada dada, The Navy Blues picked up their first win for the season! Whilst the experience of Murphy, Gibbs and Thomas were pivotal, key efforts by the youth were essential to the teams first win. Ciaran Byrne was phenomenal across half back, intercepting marks and breaking the lines with his run and carry the Irish man looked a part of our defensive future ith 19 disposals, 5 marks (4 contested) and 2 inside 50's. Patrick Cripps continues to truck along, picking up a lazy 29 disposals, 20 contested possession and 5 tackles. Crippa showed his mercurial talents a couple of times by breaking tackles and finding a player with a look away handpass but also made 3 critical errors and missed a shot on goal, his 9 clearances and 3 inside 50's more than made up for this however. Sam Kerridge was amongst the best with 28 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 4 clearances and 3 inside 50's in a complete performance bar the presence of 4 critical errors. Sam Docherty had a quiet game by hist standards with only 15 disposals but still managed 4 marks, and most importantly 5 spoils spending more time deeper in defence. Charlie Curnow continues to improve with 11 disposals, 3 marks and a critical goal in the second quarter. Jacob Weitering only managed 11 disposals but had 6 huge spoils and only made one critical error. Liam Sumner remained quiet on a forward flank with 10 disposals and made 4 critical errors to cloud what was otherwise an improvement on last weeks game. Jed Lamb played a positive role as deep full forward, and despite being robbed of a few free kicks his way still took 3 marks, had two inside 50's and kicked a goal. Lachie Plowman was resolute in defence, despite having only 9 possession he blanketed Pavlich, Mayne and Tabener, collecting 6 spoils and making no critical errors. Dylan Buckley brought speed and chase all day, but only managed 7 disposals and a solitary point.
 
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ferrisb said:
This is possibly the best investigation ever performed by the FBI....

:thumbsu:
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We must have had two blokes on the Hill, he was unsighted during the game. Investigate that!
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Im excited to see how the numbers look after a win (or at least a quality showing) and I think that's coming this week.

Bring on Freo.

Also excited at the possibility og Jaksch or DVR/Cunningham getting a game.
Click to expand...

20-of-the-funniest-photos-of-drunk-people-1.jpg
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Introduction:
Welcome to Flowers' review, discussion and analysis thread regarding the current rebuild being undertaken by the Carlton Blues in an effort to leave the cellar of the 2015 season and climb the ladder back into premiership contention.
Whilst I know there are half a dozen other threads that this sort of discussion can take place in, notably the 2016 List Management, The D Word, The Future is Bright, In Pursuit of 17 and the catch all Bluemour Discussion thread, I have established this thread as a resource for posters to use when discussing all these things. I will endeavor to keep this OP up to date with Player review, player movement and recognition of Carlton's youth as the 66 game rebuild progresses.

This thread aims to firstly identify Carlton's youth (all players aged 23 years and under as of the beginning of the 2016 AFL season) secondly track that youth and how it performs over the course of the AFL premiership season, noting how much youth is selected in the best 22 and how that youth performs. And thirdly, track Carlton's performance as a team in terms of wins-losses as we aim to increase our win-loss ration every year into the rebuild.

It is my intention, that come the end of the 2018 season a Carlton Poster will be able to quickly and easily, go back, look at Carlton's development strategy across the years, see where player development accelerated or stalled, and over the course of the next three seaosns identify which youth are performing at a high level consistently and contributing to the success of the Carlton Football Club.

(In short, please dont merge this thread, i promise it will be worth it, and if you do merge it i'll whinge about cliques... kay?)

2015 OFF SEASON
-------------------
OUT: (Trade) Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Troy Menzel, Chris Yarran, (Retired/Delisted) Andrew Carrazzo, David Ellard, Tom Fields, Cameron Giles, Nick Holman, Blaine Johnson, Chris Judd, Fraser Russel, Brad Walsh, Robbie Warnock, Matthew Watson
IN: (Trade) Sam Kerridge, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips, Lachie Plowman, Liam Sumner, (Draft) Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, David Cunningham, Jack Silvagni, (Rookie) Jesse Glass-McKasker, Andrew Galluci, Matthew Korcheck.

YOUTH (23 & Under) AS OF THE START OF THE 2016 SEASON
23: Daniel Gorringe (22 g.p) Jed Lamb (23 g.p) Mark Whiley (20 g.p) Dylan Buckley (28 g.p)
22: Sam Kerridge (27 g.p) Liam Sumner (12 g.p) Blaine Boekhurst (11 g.p) Sam Docherty (48 g.p) Andrew Galluchi (0 g.p)
21: Nicholas Graham (16 g.p) Lachie Plowman (20 g.p) Kristian Jaksch (13 g.p) Matthew Dick (6 g.p) Ciaran Byrne (1 g.p) Patrick Cripps (23 g.p)
20: Jayden Foster (0 g.p) Clem Smith (7 g.p) Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (0 g.p)
19: Billy Gowers (0 g.p) Jesse Glass-McKasker (0 g.p) Charlie Curnow (0 g.p) David Cunningham (0 g.p)
18: Jacob Weitering (0 g.p) Jack Silvagni (0 g.p) Harry McKay (0 g.p)

View attachment 235897

2016 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
View attachment 239976
Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2) and average youth player rating* (Series 3)
* Avg Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.

GAME 1 Rnd 1 - LOSS vs Richmond (83-92)
8 Youth Players: Jacob Weitering (Debutant), Dylan Buckley, Sam Docherty, Nick Graham, Jed Lamb (Blues Debut), Patrick Cripps, Blaine Boekhurst, Sam Kerridge (Blues Debut)
Coaches Votes: Sam Docherty (3) Patrick Cripps (1)
Player Ratings Points:
S. Docherty - 303
P. Cripps - 230
D. Buckley - 158
N. Graham - 104
S. Kerridge - 107
B. Boekhurst - 74
J. Lamb - 63
J. Weitering - 12

Avg 131.3
Round 1 saw Carlton debut it's newest No.1 pick, Jacob Weitering, Weities was composed down back taking 7 marks and collecting 17 disposals. Entrenched best 22 stars in Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty polled coaches votes in the loss, Cripps had 27 disposals, laid 3 tackles and scored a goal whilst Sam Docherty found the pill 29 times, took 6 marks and laid two tackles. Jed Lamb (13 disposals) kicked a goal on his debut in navy blue, Sam Kerridge impressed with 24 disposals, whilst Blaine Boekhurst (15 disposals) and Nick Graham (23 disposals) found their feet, Dylan Buckley struggled collecting only 3 disposals.

GAME 2 Rnd 2 - LOSS vs Sydney (71-131)
8 Youth Players: Charlie Curnow (Debutant), Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering, Blaine Boekhurst, Sam Kerridge, Jed Lamb, Patrick Cripps, Nick Graham
OUT: Dylan Buckley (Omitted) Andrew Walker (Omitted)
IN: Charlie Curnow, Dale Thomas
Coaches Votes: none
Player Ratings Points:
S. Docherty - 299
P. Cripps - 236
N. Graham - 112
S. Kerridge - 113
B. Boekhurst - 79
J. Lamb - 71
J. Weitering - 22
C. Curnow - 9

Avg 117.6
Round 2 continued to bring excitement to the Carlton fans with the debut of No.12 Pick Charlie Curnow. The younger brother of Ed managed to impress in his first hit out showing flair and class as he collected 11 disposals and kicked a goal. Fellow 2016 draftee Jacob Weitering played a large role in attempting to stop the Sydney forwards finding 15 possessions and taking 6 marks. Sam Kerridge continued to show his worth picking up 22 disposals and scoring 2 goals. Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty played solid roles in the sides loss, picking up 18 and 21 disposals respectively. Patrick Cripps' 10 tackles were a phenomenal effort against the big bodied Sydney midfield. Blaine Boekhurst and Jed Lamb struggled to get into the game with 10 and 11 disposals respectively, Boekhurst managed to put one through the big sticks and take 6 marks running up and down the wing. Nick Graham continues to play an under appreciated role with 21 disposals, 3 marks and 4 tackles.

GAME 3 Rnd 3 - LOSS vs Gold Coast (41-95)
10 Youth Players: Ciaran Byrne, Jacob Weitering, Sam Docherty, Nick Graham, Sam Kerridge, Blaine Boekhurst, Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Dylan Buckley, Mark Whiley
OUT: Andrejs Everitt (Injured) Simon White (Omitted) Jed Lamb (Injured)
IN: Ciaran Byrne, Dylan Buckley, Mark Whiley
Coaches Votes: Jacob Weitering (1)
NAB AFL Rising Star Nomination: Jacob Weitering
Player Ratings Points:
S. Docherty - 307.1
P. Cripps - 254.2
D.Buckley - 150.1
N. Graham - 119.7
S. Kerridge - 111
B. Boekhurst - 82.2
M. Whiley - 54.8
J. Weitering - 40.6
C. Curnow - 14.3
C. Byrne - 12.5

Avg 114.7

Jacob Weitering was Carlton's best player on the night, scoring a coaches vote and the nomination for th NAB AFL rising star award. The young blue had 26 disposals, took 9 marks and laid 2 tackles in a composed display showing signs of true leadership and endeavor. Sam Docherty and Patrick Cripps had down games for their standards but showed why they have firmly found their place in the Carlton side picking up 22 and 23 disposals. Patrick Cripps found another avenue to goal as he continues to rest forward, managing his workload and a possible lingering knee injury. Ciaran Byrne returned to the side for his second AFL game and impressed with 20 disposals and 5 marks dashing off half back. Sam Kerridge continues to prove a vital acquisition with another 21 disposals and 3 tackles. Charlie Curnow dazzled the crowd with a one handed grab and scored a goal to make the most of his 10 disposals. Dylan Buckley unfortunately dissapointed again playing a role forward of centre managing only 11 disposals, but did lay two tackles and score a behind. Mark Whiley returned to the side but could only manage 16 disposals, 2 marks and 1 tackle.

GAME 4 Rnd 4 - LOSS vs Western Bulldogs (49-85)
11 Youth Players: Jacob Weitering, Lachie Plowman (Blues Debut), Sam Docherty, Nick Graham, Liam Sumner (Blues Debut), Charlie Curnow, Ciaran Byrne, Jed Lamb, Dylan Buckley, Patrick Cripps, Sam Kerridge
OUT: Michael Jamison (Omitted) Mark While (Omitted) Blaine Boekhurst (Hamstring)
IN: Lachie Plowman, Liam Sumner, Jed Lamb
Coaches Votes: Sam Docherty (1)
Player Ratings Points:
S. Docherty - 310.2
P. Cripps - 262.2
D. Buckley - 148.6
N. Graham - 116.4
S. Kerridge - 111.7
L. Plowman - 82.9
J. Lamb - 69.9
J. Weitering - 47
C. Curnow - 24.6
C. Byrne - 20.3
L. Sumner - 12

Avg: 109.6
In a tough night for the boys, despite effort, it was the youth who shined through a darker result. Sam Kerridge picked up 26 disposals and sent the ball inside fifty 4 times showing his ability to find the ball and progress it forwards. Sam Docherty was one of the best blues on the nigh constantly linking play and making big statements with 10 marks and 25 disposals. Patrick Cripps continued to look hampered by a knee injury and subsequently spent some time forward, kicking 1 goal 2, but he also couldn't avoid the centre circle, working hard, especially in the last half after giving away a few free kicks in the early part of the game, finishing with 23 disposals, 4 marks and a huge 8 tackles Cripps showed even not fully fit he's a weapon to contain. Liam Sumner showed something on debut, kicking 2 goals, but playing a deep forward role could only find 7 touches. Lachie Plowman debuted and showed the blues a defenaive partnership to be proud of with Weitering. Plowman carried well off half back and affected the contest, even collecting 2 marks in his 10 disposals. Jacob Weitering had a quieter game from a statistical standpoint, but still managed 15 disposals, 5 marks and whilst unluckily giving away a couple of free kicks did a big job on the Bulldogs defenders looking classy and polished. Charlie Curnow had one of his most prolific nights picking up 15 disposals and showing flashes of brilliance such as swinging out of a tackle and delivering the ball long, he couldn't find the goals but picked up 15 disposals.Dylan Buckley struggled again, despite kicking a goal after a Lamb handpassed he also dropped marks and seemed to struggle on the first touch, he had 12 disposals and 2 inside 50's. Nick Graham had his worst game for the season, unable to work his way into the game he had 12 touches but laid 4 tackles. Jed Lamb did a lot of good things and looked smooth and accurate with the ball in hand, taking 6 marks, kicking a goal and having 13 touches. Ciaran Byrne continued to find his feet at AFL level, getting caught by some free kicks but had some dash off half back with 15 touches, 4 marks and an inside 50.
Northern Blues Watch: Jaksch bags 3, Gorringe 2 and Cunningham 1, Dick and Gowers find the footy in the Northern Blues win over Geelong. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/track-the-66-game-rebuild.1129290/page-2#post-43914417

GAME 5 Rnd 5 - WIN vs Fremantle (72-68)
10 Youth Players: Jacob Weitering, Ciaran Byrne, Lachie Plowman, Sam Docherty, Liam Sumner, Jed Lamb, Patrick Cripps, Sam Kerridge, Dylan Buckley, Charlie Curnow
OUT: Nick Graham (omitted)
IN: Liam Jones
Coaches Votes: Patrick Cripps (9)
Player Ratings Points:
S. Docherty - 305.7 (-)
P. Cripps - 277.6 (+)
D. Buckley - 151.4 (+)
S. Kerridge - 113.3 (+)
L. Plowman - 83.7 (+)
J. Lamb - 68.2 (-)
J. Weitering - 57.8 (+)
C. Curnow - 33.9 (+)
C. Byrne - 30.3 (+)
L. Sumner - 13.7 (-)

Avg: 113.56
Da dada dada, The Navy Blues picked up their first win for the season! Whilst the experience of Murphy, Gibbs and Thomas were pivotal, key efforts by the youth were essential to the teams first win. Ciaran Byrne was phenomenal across half back, intercepting marks and breaking the lines with his run and carry the Irish man looked a part of our defensive future ith 19 disposals, 5 marks (4 contested) and 2 inside 50's. Patrick Cripps continues to truck along, picking up a lazy 29 disposals, 20 contested possession and 5 tackles. Crippa showed his mercurial talents a couple of times by breaking tackles and finding a player with a look away handpass but also made 3 critical errors and missed a shot on goal, his 9 clearances and 3 inside 50's more than made up for this however. Sam Kerridge was amongst the best with 28 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 4 clearances and 3 inside 50's in a complete performance bar the presence of 4 critical errors. Sam Docherty had a quiet game but still managed 4 makrs, by his standards with only 15 disposals, and most importantly 5 spoils spending more time deeper in defence. Charlie Curnow continues to improve with 11 disposals, 3 marks and a critical goal in the second quarter. Jacob Weitering only managed 11 disposals but had 6 huge spoils and only made one critical error. Liam Sumner remained quiet on a forward flank with 10 disposals and made 4 critical errors to cloud what was otherwise an improvement on last weeks game. Jed Lamb played a positive role as deep full forward, and despite being robbed of a few free kicks his way still took 3 marks, had two inside 50's and kicked a goal. Lachie Plowman was resolute in defence, despite having only 9 possession he blanketed Pavlich, Mayne and Tabener, collecting 6 spoils and making no critical errors. Dylan Buckley brought speed and chase all day, but only managed 7 disposals and a solitary point.

GAME 6 Rnd 6
GAME 7 Rnd 7
GAME 8 Rnd 8
GAME 9 Rnd 9
GAME 10 Rnd 10
GAME 11 Rnd 11
GAME 12 Rnd 12
GAME 13 Rnd 14
GAME 14 Rnd 15
GAME 15 Rnd 16
GAME 16 Rnd 17
GAME 17 Rnd 18
GAME 18 Rnd 19
GAME 19 Rnd 20
GAME 20 Rnd 21
GAME 21 Rnd 22
GAME 22 Rnd 23
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Great thread, nice work. Will make for an interesting read throughout the season.
 

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round 6.png

Cripps out, Buckley out, and some harsh treatment on Docherty in the ratings meant we crashed back to earth in the overall ratings for our lowest average of the year, we also played our equal lowest number of youth. It wasn't the best game in terms of focussing on the future, but we got a win, and that energy around the club can only be good!

GAME 6 - WIN vs Essendon (72-57)
8 Youth Players: Nick Graham, Sam Kerridge, Sam Docherty, Jed Lamb, Ciaran Byrne, Liam Sumner, Lachie Plowman, Jacob Weitering.
OUT: Patrick Cripps (Calf) Dylan Bukcley (Calf) Charlie Curnow (Illness)
IN: Simon White, Dennis Armfield, Nick Graham
Coaches Votes:
Player Ratings Points:

S. Docherty 301.2 (-)
N. Graham 121.9 (+)
S. Kerridge 113.3 (-)
L. Plowman 85.4 (+)
J. Lamb 72.6 (+)
J. Weitering 60.5 (+)
C. Byrne 44 (+)
L. Sumner 22 (+)

Avg 102.6

This is exactly what we didn't want for our rebuild. Patrick Cripps to miss an important game against Essendon, where he could have really torn the game apart, ad Jacob Weitering to sublax his shoulder in the second quarter. Buckley copping an injury and Charlie Curnow pulling up sick didn't help either, but the Blues got the game which was the main thing. Ciaran Byrne was one of the Blues best with 18 disposals at 78% efficiency and importantly 5 marks, 2 rebound 50's and one inside fifty, his run was immense and showed extreme composure for a third gamer. Nick Graham came back into the side and filled the void of Patrick Cripps, working hard through the middle and picking up 22 disposals, including 10 contested and 2 clearances but mostly filled the Cripps void with his 8 tackles. Sam Kerridge exploded in the first half but his performance tapered off finishing with 19 disposals, and 10 marks spreading from the contest. Sam Docherty had a quiet game, but still picked up 22 disposals went at 87% efficiency and had 4 1%ers. Jed Lamb put in a constant effort, kicked a brilliant goal when we needed it and had 13 disposals in a decent performance. Liam Sumner kicked a ripper for the sealer but only had 9 disposals at 78% efficiency. Lachie Plowman was stoic down back with 12 disposals, 3 marks, and a massive 10 1%ers. Jacob Weitering was the sad story of the night, looking his calm and composed self to 8 disposals and two marks before popping his shoulder out. Hopefully he will be back soon because we need him in this side.
 
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Only 8 youth in for a rebuilding team is a little disappointing, but can only play them when they are ready.
Great games by Byrne and Plowman, both best 22 for the rebuild.

A couple of NB's played OK with possible 2016 delistings Dick and Foster getting good numbers. Great to see.
Really like Gallucci's work around goal, but our small forwards did their job this week so I expect Sumner and Lamb to stay in.

So who should come in next week?
 
BluesRule said:
Only 8 youth in for a rebuilding team is a little disappointing, but can only play them when they are ready.
Great games by Byrne and Plowman, both best 22 for the rebuild.

A couple of NB's played OK with possible 2016 delistings Dick and Foster getting good numbers. Great to see.
Really like Gallucci's work around goal, but our small forwards did their job this week so I expect Sumner and Lamb to stay in.

So who should come in next week?
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Cripps a certainty if healthy, Charlie should come back in for my mind.

Players like Armfield and White, whilst solid players aren't future best 22 projecting towards the end of this rebuild, and nor are they key essential positions that you need experience in to take you to that rebuild (I.e Casboult and Rowe for us, and our midifield core, Thomas, Curnow, Gibbs and Murphy and our flankers in Simpson and Touhy, although argument for Touhy;s dropping is building) everyone else... really should be a kid.
 
Aphrodite said:
FlowersByIrene


RND 6 - CARLTON v ESSENDON

9 Bryce Gibbs (Carl)
9 Dale Thomas (Carl)
5 Adam Cooney (Ess)
3 Kade Simpson (Carl)
2 Ed Curnow (Carl)
2 Courtenay Dempsey (Ess)






BTW C. Curnow out indefinitely with glandular fever. :'(
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Legend Aph, I am amazed that Byrne didn't get a vote. How Dempsey got one is disgusting.

Awful news for Charlie!
 

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HBF said:
6 games in and we've already seen improvement in our ability to not leak big scores. Just need to work on what we do with the footy once we get it inside 50 now.
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Our back six is working very well, we're spoiling it a lot, causing the ball to go to ground and getting it out of the back half well. The best part is Weitering, Plowman, Docherty and Byrne are essential members of that back six and they're all from the youth!

Build some targets up forward and keep working on our midfield so the defence doesn't have to defend as much and we'll start winning more.
 
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AGE PROFILE ANALYSIS (After Round 7, 2016)

What is a rebuild thread without some basic list analysis? Feel free to pour over this data with me, because I'm certainly no statistical expert, nor even a Carlton expert, although I do put more time into Bigfooty than just about any other thing in my life. But i'd love your input into the state of the list as well.

Age Profile 2016 (Rnd 7).png
Graph: Graphical representation of the Carlton List Profile

Here is a quick summation of the Carlton Playing List age profile. As you can see, we are a relatively young side overall, when compared to teams like North Melbourne filled with over 30 year olds, our solitary leader in Kade Simpson is the only man to push the 30 year barrier. I've gone ahead and broken the list down further to make it slightly clearer again. Taking the concept of "youth" that this thread is premised upon, I have collated the list into three groups; Youth (23 & Under), Experienced Players (24-29) and Veterans (30+)
Age Ranges 2016 (Rnd 7).png
Graph: Youth (23 & Under) Experience (24-29) Veterans (30+)

If you think about a list in this way, as three parts of a whole, then the Carlton playing list is very well placed. What is the "desirable" balance between these three groups could be debated ad nauseum, however I believe everyone can understand that a successful team would preferably have a balance of youth, experience and veterans probably ranging from largest to smallest in that order, if they are looking for a period of sustained success. Hawthorn are the obvious historic example to aspire to build towards, and the golden standard with which to measure a succesful teams age profile. See this article from early 2015 proclaiming the Hawthorn side to be the best balance between experience and elite youth ( http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...a/news-story/fde0e17c93aab160e1b70145b2ad20a2 )

The Hawthorn sides AFL Playinst List in 2013 (i.e the beginning of their 3-peat) was as such. Hawthorn Age Profile 2013.png
Which when grouped into ranges can be seen as this;
Hawthorn Age Profile (Ranges) 2013.png

I think the Hawthorn list model, is largely desirable, about twice as many experienced players as veterans, and then as many youth as both those categories combined. What is promising about Carlton's list profile is that we can see our list becoming on the brink of this type of set up. Within three years, you will see a change that will place us within this desired range.

But before we look exactly at what is to come, let's move beyond numbers, and look at some names.

32- K. Simpson
31- nil
30- nil
----------------------------------
29- A. Walker, M. Jamison, D. Armfield
28- M. Murphy, D. Thomas, S. Rowe
27- S. White, A. Everitt, B. Gibbs
26- M. Kreuzer, E. Curnow, Z. Touhy, M. Wright, L. Casboult
25- C. Sheehan, L. Jones
24- J. Tutt, A. Phillips, M. Korcheck
----------------------------------
23- D. Gorringe, J. Lamb, M. Whiley, D. Buckley, S. Kerridge
22- L. Sumner, B. Boekhurst, S. Docherty, A. Galluchi
21- N. Graham, L. Plowman, K. Jaksch, M. Dick, C. Byrne, P. Cripps
20- J. Foster, C. Smith, D. Viojo-Rainbow
19- B. Gowers, J. Glass-McCasker, C. Curnow, D. Cuningham
18- J. Weitering, J. Silvagni, H. McKay

(Bolded, are those that are clearly best 22, and have been selected when fit and available this season, players such as Jones, Graham, Jamison etc who have missed games, played VFL or been dropped are not included)

What I see from this playing list is a delicate position, one the one hand, we could easily progress towards the Hawthorn standard and excel, on the other hand, our development of our current 22-25 year olds could stutter and we could find ourselves in the position of a side build around excellent youth and excellent veterans but poor experienced players.

If we fast forward to the end of this 66 game rebuild, 2019, our list will look a lot different. Kade Simpson will be 35 (I believe he could still be playing) Murphy, Thomas and Rowe will be 31 and Gibbs will be 30. It's important to look back to Hawthorns side which is currently full of 33 year olds in the ebst form of their life and we should remember not to throw a player out just because they are over 30. Walker, Jamison, Armfield and Possibly Rowe will definitely be gone, White and Everitt as well. Unless we sign a veteran free agent our playing list will have; 4-6 Veterans. Moving onto experienced players I'll hazard a guess that Gorringe, Whiley, Tutt, Korcheck, Jones and possibly Sheehan and Galluchi will have left us. Kreuzer, Curnow, Touhy, Wright and Casboult will all be 29, Phillips will be 27 and Lamb, Kerridge, Docherty, Boekhurst, Buckley, Sumner and co will be between 25 and 28. Cripps, Plowman and Byrne will all remain on the list, and there is a good chance, Jaksch and Graham may keep their places and contribute. Going on some safe estimations our playing list will have; 18-21 Experienced Players. Barring any free agent or trade additions the rest of the side will be made up of youth. Weitering and McKay and Curnow etal will all still be in the "youth" section as will all our future draft picks. Some players may be cut, hwoever they will be replaced by more youth meaning our playing list will have roughly; 20-25 Youth players.

Looking at these ranges we have
Veterans: 4-6
Experienced: 18-21
Youth: 20-25

And what do you know, that is almost perfectly inline with the golden ratio seen in the 2013 Hawthorn line up.

The possible issues I see with this is a brief premiership window caused by a reliance on our veterans.We know Docherty and Cripps will be elite experienced players in 2019 onwards, but can we saw with complete certainty that the likes of Lamb, Kerridge, Phillips, Buckley, Boekhurst, Sumner, Plowman and Byrne will be elite? I have high hopes about many of those names, but am also aware of the possibilities of some of those players not taking the next step. If these players don't come on, we may find ourselves in a brief premiership window where Gibbs, Murphy and Thomas are carrying a side of energetic youth and a few experienced stars. With out more certified experienced players in 2019 being almost into the veterans category themselves, such a Kreuzer, Touhy and Ed Curnow, out window may seem short. This is the period where our poor drafting and development post 2010 will begin to hurt us, even just a sprinkling of elite talent in the 25-30 range may help alleviate the pressure on the youth. However this isn't the case, so what are the other options? I see them as two fold, lead from the youth, or supplement with free agency. Both can work together in conjunction, it may be essential to go out and target an experienced key back, key forward or midfielder at the end of the 2017 or 2018 season. This focus on free agency should not detract from drafting and developing exciting youth however. Over the coming two draft period we must establish an elite group of kids. I've discussed before the merits of trading away high picks for more first round picks, and even trading away future picks to tighten the elite age profile, these are all avenues that will have to be looked into. Thankfully one of the benefits of not having a large group of best 22 experienced players is the ability to "play the kids". Which means, hopefully this rebuilding phase will allow us to either 1) develop that older grop of the youth so they are best 22 standard experienced players, i'm looking at the Jaksch's and the Gorringe's and the Buckley's here, Sumner and Plowman etc, and if that doest work 2) blood the kids, play our 2016 draftees and our future draftees top the point that they become elite players before thier time. Look to Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty who are already our best players from within the "youth" group.

Speaking of the relationship between age and games played here is a graph depicting our list in terms of games played;
Age Profile, Games Played, (Rnd 7).png
I've separated the list out into apportionments of 18 games on the rational (Although largely arbitrary) that 18 games is about what one can expect an AFL player to play each season if they get a decent run at it, injuries, form and suspension detract away from a full 22 game season, and whilst relatively arbitrary you can look at each of these ranges as a "season" of AFL football that that player has played.

What you can see here is that a large proportion of our list (27) has played less than 37 games. In my mind this means we still have lots of room for improvement within the list. If we go off the old adage of a "third year breakout season" that means that we have an enormourous portion of our list, who haven't had the experience at AFL level to truly blossom. A player beginning their third year breakout season would have played roughly less than 36 games, on our list wee have 27 of those players, and those names include all of those question marks raised earlier, the Lamb's, Jaksch's, Buckley's. Plowman, Sumner, Gorringe, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, Kerridge, Galluchi, Whiley, even Cripps.

Over the next three years we're going to see out list mature together, Lamb, Kerridge, Cripps, Docherty, Byrne, Plowman, Weitering, Curnow and SUmner have already shown to be seen as best 22 players, and we will see them move from those 0-37 ranges up into their break out seasons from 38 games and beyond. It is that consistent growth that will help to establish the experienced core that will set us up for a period of sustained success, where the eventual loss of Simpson, Murphy and Thomas will not result in our fall down the ladder and the closing of our premiership window.

But forget my ramblings, have a look at the numners and comment how you think the list is looking. What should be our goals over the next few off seasons. Obviously high draft picks and lots of them is the aim, but is there room for an experienced trade or a free agent and when is the right time for that move? Should we target a 25+ year free agent, or mvoe to trade for a Neale/O'meara type to shore up that 21-24 year old range. I look forward to your input. And to those looking back from the future, how did I go prediction wise, hopefully Murphy and Cripps are lifting the cup in 2020 together.
 
Nice analysis FBI.

Numbers don't always give you the full picture, the personnel is far more important, as is the system the players are in.

The current list of players will look a lot better once we have the BB style of play bedded down and the expectations of the coach are understood and fully embraced by the group.

GWS may break the mould again as they are likely to be trading out 22-25 year old players for top 10 and/or academy picks for a few more years yet. This will keep their base of elite youngsters growing and they can cherry pick which ones to try and actively keep. They have done particularly well by targeting tall players who attract a premium on the open market. No one else will be able to follow that formula and they may play a big part in finals for the next decade or longer if they get it right.

My only concern with trying too hard to get a certain profile for the list is we may trade or draft the wrong players. It becomes like the times when we were chasing the best athletes rather than the best or most skilled players. Too much focus narrows your thinking and leads to missed opportunities.
 
Round 7.png

GAME 7 - WIN vs Collingwood (99-84)
7 Youth Players: Patrick Cripps, Sam Kerridge, Sam Docherty, Jed Lamb, Ciaran Byrne, Liam Sumner, Lachie Plowman.
OUT: Jacob Weitering (Shoulder) Andrew Phillips (Hamstring) Nick Graham (Omitted) Simon White (injured)
IN: Patrick Cripps, Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker, Andrejs Everitt
Coaches Votes: Patrick Cripps (8)
Player Ratings Points:

S. Docherty 303.9 (+)
P. Cripps 293.6 (+)
S. Kerridge 115.2 (-)
L. Plowman 89.5 (+)
J. Lamb 72.7 (+)
C. Byrne 50.8 (+)
L. Sumner 26.7 (+)

Avg 136.05

An injury to Weitering, and our first choice rookies being either injured or coming back from injury meant Carlton fielded their most experienced side of the year, with only 7 'youth' players pulling on the jumper. But we got a win against the old foe, made it three in a row and surpassed all media's pre-season expectations by round 7!
Carlton put in an amazing effort across the board, and along with Gibbs, Simpson and Curnow who had some monumental efforts it was the youth who lifted the team as well. Sam Docherty continues to grow across half back, he collected 24 disposals, had 8 marks, 4 Rebound 50's, 5 tackles and 2 inside 50's he was everywhere on the day, counter attacking but also spoiling deep and clearing up in the back half. Patrick Cripps returned from injury and made an immediate impact, looking Kouta like with his duking and running bounces through the middle (he had 4 bounces on the day) Crippa collected 29 disposals, a mere 19 contested went at 76% efficienty, laid 6 tackles and had 9 monumental clearances, he pulled out the party tricks again, setting up Gibbs for a goal with a left handed handpass out of congestion and showed us what we missed of him last week. Jed Lamb had one of his best game sin Blue, playing a bit more through the midfield he picked up 19 disposals, socred a goal and had 4 inside 50's. Sam Kerridge, had a mixed game, he collected 24 disposals at 83% efficiency and had 3 clearances and 5 tackles, but also managed 4 clangers, he found the scoreboard again with a goal and overall had another good game. Ciaran Byrne continues to perform with 14 disposals, but had efficiency concerns going at only 64%, however he made no clangers, had 4 inside 50's and 2 rebound 50's so overall a good performance from the Irishmen. Lachie Plowman did a silly thing or two, trying to take on Fasolo on the wing and getting caught, leading to one of his 3 clangers, but he had 8 disposals at 75% efficiency and found 3 1%ers I found him serviceable down back but he clearly missed the presence of his young partner in crime Jacob Weitering. Liam Sumner had a solid game finding 11 disposals at a disappointing 54% eff but managed to kick a goal have two i50's and lay two tackles.

From the Magoos:
This weekend: Casey Scorpions v Northern Blues - Sunday May 8, 2pm, Casey Fields
There weren't many positives for the Blues in their 107-point loss to Casey, with two VFL-listed players taken to hospital after being involved in separate collisions.Omitted midfielder Nick Graham played a lone hand for his side, gathering 32 disposals, laying 14 tackles and taking nine marks. Former Sydney Swans defender Matthew Dick, who joined the Blues as a delisted free agent at the end of 2014, also held his own with 27 touches.In his comeback from a calf strain, Dylan Buckley appeared to be reported in the first half.
 

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