Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[BluesRule]

I wouldn't say done as readily as you're saying done, although it is something we'd be keen on.

Works perfectly for us and I'd be thrilled should we get this one over the line......and I don't care who we may have got with that pick.

Only problem is we miss getting high quality kids with unlimited upside (like Brodie) during a 66 game rebuild.

Will back the club if they consider this strategy best as:
1. GWS need high picks to get younger talent to balance the team/list.
2. GWS want to act before their draft zone is reduced to become more of a local team with less go home pressure
3. GWS need to lower their salary cap pressure.
4. Every early pick GWS holds means nobody else bids on GWS academy kids - reducing the cost, plus giving them access to the best young talent to widen the age spread on their list.
5. They can really piss Sydney off by bidding on their kids.

Time to act is now - but we really need a couple of fringe mids like Ahern and WHE as well IMO.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If Carlton waste our first pick on Marchbank WE WILL NOT progress up the ladder as we should.

We NEED a young midfielder who will walk into our best 22 - straight away.

 

[BluesRule]

If Carlton waste our first pick on Marchbank WE WILL NOT progress up the ladder as we should.

We NEED a young midfielder who will walk into our best 22 - straight away.

Tom Mitchell?

 

[HARKER]

Its scary to think if thats true then GWS will have 5 first round picks

They may well have the 5 picks but I just can't see them using them all via the draft.

A couple of those would surely be traded for needs. They already have enough first rounders injured or playing NEAFL

 

[Soapy V]

Tom Mitchell?

Lachie Neale or Jack Steele? would we do steele marchbank & tomlinson for first round pick?

 

[HARKER]

If Carlton waste our first pick on Marchbank WE WILL NOT progress up the ladder as we should.

We NEED a young midfielder who will walk into our best 22 - straight away.

You're right in that we need a midfield and we'd be right in saying that not all our wants are going to come from the 2016 post-season campaign.

Three more years of work is going to take just that. No shortcuts and we have to maximise our drafting/trading over that period.

If Marchbank & Tomlinson are offered up for our ~#4, it's going to be hard to say no, I feel.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You're right in that we need a midfield and we'd be right in saying that not all our wants are going to come from the 2016 post-season campaign.

Three more years of work is going to take just that. No shortcuts and we have to maximise our drafting/trading over that period.

If Marchbank & Tomlinson are offered up for our ~#4, it's going to be hard to say no, I feel.

Why though? Think about it, Tomlinson is worthless, he's worth a late 2nd or early 3rd. So it's basically Marchbank for pick #4 (unless we're getting a second back and can trade two seconds for another first) And is Marchbank, who was what #6 or #8 on his own, and whilst being GOOD hasn't set the world on fire, he's not Weitering or Lever, is he worth pick #4.

Would we use pick #4 on a key defender in the draft? No way we would, we'd go straight for a competitive midfielder.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Tom Mitchell?

Could be a possibility. Although I think with his contract size, and the fact we'd be giving Sydney another top pick they don't deserve I think going to the draft and finding a younger, competitive beast with maybe a little bit better skills than Mitchell would be the way to go.

 

[HARKER]

Why though? Think about it, Tomlinson is worthless, he's worth a late 2nd or early 3rd. So it's basically Marchbank for pick #4 (unless we're getting a second back and can trade two seconds for another first) And is Marchbank, who was what #6 or #8 on his own, and whilst being GOOD hasn't set the world on fire, he's not Weitering or Lever, is he worth pick #4.

Would we use pick #4 on a key defender in the draft? No way we would, we'd go straight for a competitive midfielder.

Tomlinson worthless? I've questioned his value on the strength of the relatively small sample I've seen of him, but if GWS had have traded Tomlinson as they said they would last year, then McKay wouldn't be on our list. (Curnow would have been taken earlier)

We'll find out his worth soon enough and we can wish and hope as much as we want, but it won't be a third or fourth rounder that will do the deal

 

[Malifice]

If Carlton waste our first pick on Marchbank WE WILL NOT progress up the ladder as we should.

Couldnt disagree more.

We would have our backline sorted for a decade, and the makings of a solid forward line.

Mids we can get, and they slot in pretty much straight away (unlike the talls).

Id rather load up on talls in year 1 of the rebuild, and grab mids in years 2 and 3, than the other way around.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Lachie Neale or Jack Steele? would we do steele marchbank & tomlinson for first round pick?

Lachie Neale is exactly what we need.

In terms of our first round pick.

My priority wold be

1. Lachie Neale
2. Dion Prestia/Jaeger O'Meara (subject to fitness of course)
3. Draft
4. Mitchell
5. Another young midfielder
6. Marchank

(Brad Crouch, Steele possibly on the radar?)

 

[Broadside]

Tomlinson worthless? I've questioned his value on the strength of the relatively small sample I've seen of him, but if GWS had have traded Tomlinson as they said they would last year, then McKay wouldn't be on our list. (Curnow would have been taken earlier)

We'll find out his worth soon enough and we can wish and hope as much as we want, but it won't be a third or fourth rounder that will do the deal

he is worth less now than he was a year ago, he isn't playing firsts. His value must have dropped since last November even if he is getting huge stats in the secondary competition.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Couldnt disagree more.

We would have our backline sorted for a decade, and the makings of a solid forward line.

Mids we can get, and they slot in pretty much straight away (unlike the talls).

Id rather load up on talls in year 1 of the rebuild, and grab mids in years 2 and 3, than the other way around.

And we have.. Plowman and Weitering, and McKay and Curnow come to mind at all?

Sort our backline out and run Cripps into the ground ala Judd. Hell no. The backline will have to be BLOODY good to deal with the ammount of inside 50's the opposition will have when Cripps breaks down from carrying the team.

 

[HARKER]

Couldnt disagree more.

We would have our backline sorted for a decade, and the makings of a solid forward line.

Mids we can get, and they slot in pretty much straight away (unlike the talls).

Id rather load up on talls in year 1 of the rebuild, and grab mids in years 2 and 3, than the other way around.

The potential of our back-line now, is that we have players that gain meterage and kick deep into attack.

Weitering, Docherty, Tuohy, Byrne and Plowman are all capable of 70-80 metre plays. Marchbank would only add to that model.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Tomlinson worthless? I've questioned his value on the strength of the relatively small sample I've seen of him, but if GWS had have traded Tomlinson as they said they would last year, then McKay wouldn't be on our list. (Curnow would have been taken earlier)

We'll find out his worth soon enough and we can wish and hope as much as we want, but it won't be a third or fourth rounder that will do the deal

Obviously Tomlinson is worth at most a mid 3nd rounder, surely you'd agree with that.

He's a player surplus to needs, and on a secondary contract, which would be obviously larger than a base draftee cotnract, we don't know exactly how big it is, but with GWS needing to clear 600k, Tomlinson, as surplus to their team, NEEDS to go, and that means he is cheaper than last year. Obviously.

 

[HARKER]

he is worth less now than he was a year ago, he isn't playing firsts. His value must have dropped since last November even if he is getting huge stats in the secondary competition.

Just remember what a third or fourth rounder equate to.
Our third rounder could easily be a pick #40+ and third rounder somewhere in the 50s (after all the numbers get stripped.)

A few good games by a quality athlete in Tomlinson and watch the price go up......and up....

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Just remember what a third or fourth rounder equate to.
Our third rounder could easily be a pick #40+ and third rounder somewhere in the 50s (after all the numbers get stripped.)

A few good games by a quality athlete in Tomlinson and watch the price go up......and up....

He might be good, but that only means something if GWS want to keep him, as it stands they will HAVE to want to get rid of him.

 

[Probes]

Lachie Neale is exactly what we need.

In terms of our first round pick.

My priority wold be

1. Lachie Neale
2. Dion Prestia/Jaeger O'Meara (subject to fitness of course)
3. Draft
4. Mitchell
5. Another young midfielder
6. Marchank

Would Brad Crouch be on your radar at all?
His numbers were almost as impressive as O'Meara's before he went down with injury.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Would Brad Crouch be on your radar at all?
His numbers were almost as impressive as O'Meara's before he went down with injury.

Definitely? Although I didn't realise he was interested in coming back to Victoria, is there anything whispers of him being discontented?

 

[HARKER]

He might be good, but that only means something if GWS want to keep him, as it stands they will HAVE to want to get rid of him.

We know what happened last year........so no need to re-visit all that but unless something awful happens to Tomlinson, he won't be coming to us for a pick in the 40's. It won't happen.
Just because you're not getting a game at the club with a list so deep, you can make almost two teams from, doesn't mean they're going to be playing giveaways again.

 

[HARKER]

Definitely? Although I didn't realise he was interested in coming back to Victoria, is there anything whispers of him being discontented?

He's an emergency for a MOR team such as Adelaide. #40 or GTFO

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Lachie Neale is exactly what we need.

In terms of our first round pick.

My priority wold be

1. Lachie Neale
2. Dion Prestia/Jaeger O'Meara (subject to fitness of course)
3. Draft
4. Mitchell
5. Another young midfielder
6. Marchank

Unless we pay significant overs then none of these players will want to come to a club like Carlton which is so early in its development.. We would need to pay 20% more than what a Geelong, Hawthorn, Bulldogs will have to and if a player is chasing immediate success then even that might not be enough. This is why i would rather bank our salary cap until we are ready to pounce and take the best available midfielder in this draft.

 

[Soapy V]

Lachie Neale is exactly what we need.

In terms of our first round pick.

My priority wold be

1. Lachie Neale
2. Dion Prestia/Jaeger O'Meara (subject to fitness of course)
3. Draft
4. Mitchell
5. Another young midfielder
6. Marchank

(Brad Crouch on the radar?)

word is steele, prestia, omeara, neale & crouch are all looking to come to melbourne. be interested to see if we pursue them and what we would give up. i am still keen to go through the draft as much as possible.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We know what happened last year........so no need to re-visit all that but unless something awful happens to Tomlinson, he won't be coming to us for a pick in the 40's. It won't happen.
Just because you're not getting a game at the club with a list so deep, you can make almost two teams from, doesn't mean they're going to be playing giveaways again.

1. Salary cap pressure (Tomlinson a secondary contract is an obvious area to save cap space)
2. Outside best 22, not playing AFL
3. Tomlinson is IN CONTRACT, so if he says - "im going to Carlton" he's coming to Carlton because otherwise he'll just say he'll stay at GWS and GWS can't afford that.
4. Good relationship with GWS trading wise.

I'm not saying a pick in the 40's, but a late 2nd. 30's is definitely possible.

Comparison - Bruce trade.

You're just being stubborn harks, you know i'm right

 

[Probes]

Definitely? Although I didn't realise he was interested in coming back to Victoria, is there anything whispers of him being discontented?

Damien Barrett amongst others have reported he may be looking to come home. Not many people put much credence into whatever Barrett reports/claims which is probably why there is a lack of discussion regarding Crouch.

But fwiw... I'd LOVE to have Crouch roaming around our midfield with Crippa next season!