- Aug 18, 2009
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- #6,726
Fixed, thanks.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Well that's all really interesting, but it also shows you just cannot pick the future, and mainly because you never know which way that little devil the Sherrin will bounce![Edit! 2015 squiggles start here. Interactive squiggle (with tips, predictor & FAQ) is here. 2014 squiggles started here.]
I like to chart things for no good reason, so I decided to make a scatterplot of teams from their scores for and against over the course of the 2013 season. It looks like this:
After Round 18
Each team's flag represents its current position, with the line tracking their journey since Round 1.
I added premiers from the last 20 years, too, since they mostly wind up in the same area.
The middle is an unreadable mess, but there are interesting results, too.
Sydney is currently sitting right where they were when they won the Cup last year. Hawthorn has tracked in a very small area all year, with an exceptionally strong attack but a weaker defense than any premiership-winning team of the last two decades. Geelong is making a late run. Freo look exactly like a Ross Lyon team.
There's a bunch of teams all around the same area, then a fairly large gap to Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St. Kilda, Gold Coast, and the Western Bulldogs. Then GWS and Melbourne sit a long way behind.
I also decided to plot the Top 4 teams of the last 20 years who failed to win the premiership and see where they wound up. So in this bunch we have many strong teams. I was interested in seeing whether there was a noticeable difference between flag winners and their closest competition:
Premiers vs Top 4 Also-Rans
And there does seem to be. In fact, it's possible to draw a "premiership curve" that encompasses 13 of the 20 flags, and 75% of the time over the last 20 years, the team closest to or farthest beyond that curve has won the flag. (The five exceptions: according to this theory, Hawthorn should have won in 2012, Geelong should have won in 2008, St Kilda should have won in 2005, Brisbane should have won in 1999, and St Kilda should have won in 1997.)
Model Stuff: Each data point is calculated by taking a team's offensive rating and dividing it by the other team's defensive rating. For example, in a match between Hawthorn (OFF: 74.23%) and Essendon (DEF: 54.55%), Hawthorn is expected to produce a score 1.36 times higher than average. Each data point is a weighted average, representing 9% of the most recent round, 8.1% of the round before that (91% of 9%), then 7.45%, and so on. Aside from scores for and against, the only adjustment the model makes is for interstate games, where it assumes a 12-point advantage to the home team. This model has correctly tipped 117 winners this year (72.2%).
Update! Play with Dynamic Squiggles here.
Oh and Hawthorn should have won in 2008!!!!!!!
- Aug 18, 2009
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Not many teams chart near where Adelaide is now, so I'd have to wildly speculate. But I am prepared to do that.
Over the last 20 years, teams in this area have tended to make the finals and get crushed by more balanced teams, or else have a would-have-should-have kind of year.
2013 is a pretty good example, because no fewer than three teams got near there (most years, no-one does):
Adelaide are only 10 games in here, of course, compared to full seasons from the 2013 teams.
In 2013, North Melbourne missed finals after losing an amazing 10 games by 3 goals or less. Geelong became a lot more balanced in the second half of the year, and actually looked a red-hot shot to win the flag. But they lost a prelim by 5 points to Hawthorn, who also became somewhat more balanced. And then won the flag against defensive specialists Fremantle.
A year earlier, North passed through here en route to a 96-point Elimination Final humiliation at the hands of West Coast.
In 2010 Carlton peaked around here and lost a close Elimination Final to the Swans (who lost a semi to the Bulldogs, who lost a prelim to the Saints, who lost the GF to Collingwood).
The 2008 Bulldogs weren't quite as attacking but were still 3rd in the league in a year of big improvement for them, losing a prelim to the Cats. A year later it was a similar situation, and they lost a prelim to the Saints.
In 2004, St Kilda got near here late in the year before losing a prelim to Port.
In 2003, West Coast passed through here on the way to bombing out of an Elimination Final against Adelaide
In 2000, Melbourne landed here after losing the Grand Final to Essendon by 10 goals.
So it's not an ideal place to be. But it's tantalizing because it only takes one really strong defensive performance to move into the perfect position. And if you're going to be unbalanced, it's better to be too attacking than too defensive.
Either way, the Crows should be entertaining this year.
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Little Big John
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- Aug 15, 2009
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It's lines like these that make me want to read your written work, Final Siren .But it's the squiggle that makes me want to create a Wacky Races-style cartoon about the 2016 season.
- Oct 26, 2012
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Given the Crows have played 6 out of 7 teams in the top 8 so far (just West Coast to go) and gotten through the toughest part of their draw, you'd think they should move to the right in the second half of the season.
Not necessarily. The squiggle will take the weaker teams into account so Adelaide will be expected to do a lot better against them. If Adelaide wins every game for the rest of the year it is still possible for them to move further away from the premiership zone by performing below expectation. Adelaide's position on the actual AFL ladder on the other hand should improve you would think with the draw opening up for them!
Cheers for the write up!! All hail the squiggle.Not many teams chart near where Adelaide is now, so I'd have to wildly speculate. But I am prepared to do that.
Over the last 20 years, teams in this area have tended to make the finals and get crushed by more balanced teams, or else have a would-have-should-have kind of year.
2013 is a pretty good example, because no fewer than three teams got near there (most years, no-one does):
Adelaide are only 10 games in here, of course, compared to full seasons from the 2013 teams.
In 2013, North Melbourne missed finals after losing an amazing 10 games by 3 goals or less. Geelong became a lot more balanced in the second half of the year, and actually looked a red-hot shot to win the flag. But they lost a prelim by 5 points to Hawthorn, who also became somewhat more balanced. And then won the flag against defensive specialists Fremantle.
A year earlier, North passed through here en route to a 96-point Elimination Final humiliation at the hands of West Coast.
In 2010 Carlton peaked around here and lost a close Elimination Final to the Swans (who lost a semi to the Bulldogs, who lost a prelim to the Saints, who lost the GF to Collingwood).
The 2008 Bulldogs weren't quite as attacking but were still 3rd in the league in a year of big improvement for them, losing a prelim to the Cats. A year later it was a similar situation, and they lost a prelim to the Saints.
In 2004, St Kilda got near here late in the year before losing a prelim to Port.
In 2003, West Coast passed through here on the way to bombing out of an Elimination Final against Adelaide
In 2000, Melbourne landed here after losing the Grand Final to Essendon by 10 goals.
So it's not an ideal place to be. But it's tantalizing because it only takes one really strong defensive performance to move into the perfect position. And if you're going to be unbalanced, it's better to be too attacking than too defensive.
Either way, the Crows should be entertaining this year.
I just read a book called 'Time and Space' by James Coventry, which recounts the history of footy's tactics and game plans. I recommend it to anyone interested in that subject. In it, Coventry writes:
'Of the AFL's first seven premiership sides, four had finished with a top-two defensive record, while only two had ranked in the top two for points scored. Other coaches were beginning to put as much stock into stopping goals as scoring them. "During the '90s it was getting towards the stage where if you weren't a top defensive team, you wouldn't win," said David Parkin.' The author then recounts that Malcolm Blight reformed the attack-at-all-costs mantra he had coached at Geelong. He had learnt his lesson having his attacking Cats being thrashed on grand final day twice by the defensive Eagles. So when he arrived at Adelaide, Adelaide became the league's stingiest side in their premiership years of 1997 and 1998.
A check of Squiggle itself shows that during the 90s, six of the ten premiers were on the defence-heavy side or were at least the furthest right (1990, 92, 94, 95, 97, 98). But the rest were not, especially the two Roos flags. What would you say about this bit of recent history, Final Siren?
'Of the AFL's first seven premiership sides, four had finished with a top-two defensive record, while only two had ranked in the top two for points scored. Other coaches were beginning to put as much stock into stopping goals as scoring them. "During the '90s it was getting towards the stage where if you weren't a top defensive team, you wouldn't win," said David Parkin.' The author then recounts that Malcolm Blight reformed the attack-at-all-costs mantra he had coached at Geelong. He had learnt his lesson having his attacking Cats being thrashed on grand final day twice by the defensive Eagles. So when he arrived at Adelaide, Adelaide became the league's stingiest side in their premiership years of 1997 and 1998.
A check of Squiggle itself shows that during the 90s, six of the ten premiers were on the defence-heavy side or were at least the furthest right (1990, 92, 94, 95, 97, 98). But the rest were not, especially the two Roos flags. What would you say about this bit of recent history, Final Siren?
I suspect he's largely addressed it already with the flagpole algorithm which emphasises the value of offensive capabilities when deciding Grand Finals.
Or were you specifically referring to the statement regarding the 90's? Interestingly, would have the flagpole correctly predicted the eventual winners during the 90's.
Teams improving in the last year on both sides of the ledger (attack & defense): Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast, Western Bulldogs.
The latter paragraph would be an interesting thing to look at.
It's surprising Sydney's attack hasn't moved at all tbh
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threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
The 90's was a defensive era, but the 2000's are attacking. Sydney's two flags are certainly an outlier rather than the norm.
SJ
Premium Platinum
For premiers.
But interestingly the 1990s was an attacking era in and of itself, whilst the 2000s have been far more defensive.
- May 18, 2015
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Killed richmond as expected. but squiggle thought it would be close north move to losing the granny by just 3 points.
tazaa
Hall of Famer
The squiggle hates North. We finally get a fukin good thumping and defensive effort in and we are now tipped to lose the Grand Final by 4 point ffs
- May 18, 2015
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If sydney have a close game against suns might make you faves. I expect them to win by over 100 though.
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shintemaster
Brownlow Medallist
**** you squiggle you dirty traitor. You had your chance to get on board the Roos. Can GAGF now if you think we're gonna rate your opinion.
- May 18, 2015
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7th to 2nd predicted ladder in a very expected killing of richmond.
- Aug 22, 2009
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North up to 6th on the flagpole.
tazaa
Hall of Famer
Yeh not gonna happen. Unless its wet?
- Sep 10, 2006
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Looks like the match will be played in the worst conditions we've seen in years. Will probably be close.
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