Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[ParapMarkets]

Dont worry about the 33 year old holding their forward line together. It's their 20-24 year old mids I'd be salivating at.
If we draft wisely, we will be in the same boat in 2-3 seasons..

Which 20-24 year old mids are you talking about? I can't think of a single one I would be salivating at, unless you are calling Billings a mid. They did well with Gresham in last years draft though, he looks a beauty.

 

[LordLucifer]

Can anyone remember their thoughts on Membrey when he was rumored to be joining the Blues?

All I remember was a number of people poo-hooing the idea for a variety of reasons and me trying to argue that he will be a very good player for us if we got him.

 

[zeeCFC]

We are in such a deep hole it's going to take until Cripps is a veteran when we get near a premiership again.

Every line of our side needs two or more quality players.

We're most likely going to lose Rainbow and Clem and they'll just be replaced by older journeymen free agents, at which point fingers crossed we get some hits from the draft. Was really hoping Cuningham would be showing good form in the twos by now but again our development culture seems lacking.

At the moment these are the players worth keeping in our squad:

Tuohy, Weitering, Sheehan (+ JGM)
Byrne, Plowman, Simpson, Docherty
Murphy, Gibbs, Boekhorst, Cripps, Curnow (+ Cuningham, Wright, Kerridge)
Lamb, Sumner, Silvagni
Curnow, McKay, Phillips (+ Jaksch, Korcheck) **Jaksch contracted

That's just 25 players you'd be confident to afford time to keep or allow development in for whatever reason. Literally every other player I'd be having fighting to not be delisted or traded.

I don't envy SOS' job

 

[KohPhi]

Which 20-24 year old mids are you talking about? I can't think of a single one I would be salivating at, unless you are calling Billings a mid. They did well with Gresham in last years draft though, he looks a beauty.

Blake Acres,Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings, Seb Ross,Jade Gresham ,Jack Steven (26),Jack Newnes, Mav Weller bar Steven are all 25 and under and have all shown the ability to play footy and as a unit, will only get better.

Beats the shit out of our midfield in young talent.

 

[Dramoth]

Trade Gibbs and 49 to Adelaide for 15 and 33. Their window is open and he's a perfect swap for Danger.

Trade Touhy + 40 to Sydney for 16.

4, 15, 16, 22, 33.

Then either use them (maybe spending one on JoM if his medicals come back spotless) or trade 16 and 33 (1640 points) and next years second rounder (850 points assuming a similar finish) to GWS for pick 8 (Pies) (1551 points), Tomlinson, Marchbank and Steele (valued at pick 20) and use 4, 8, 15, 22 at the draft.

I wouldnt mind if we managed to get into the top 10 like that... but I would be very tempted to use 15 to try and get one of JOM (if his medicals come back spotless), Prestia, Crouch, or Mitchell while using 16 to get the GWS guys and pick 8.

That way, we would be going to the draft with 4, 8, and 22... and whatever else we can get from any other trades.

 

[Dramoth]

gibbs & 49 for crouch & 15 i would consider

I think that we would have to add something else to that deal.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Blake Acres,Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings, Seb Ross,Jade Gresham ,Jack Steven (26),Jack Newnes, Mav Weller bar Steven are all 25 and under and have all shown the ability to play footy and as a unit, will only get better.

Beats the shit out of our midfield in young talent.

I think you are over-rating them based on today's performance, the guys in that list who are actually 20-24 are meh. Acres has been poor most of the year, Dunstan is mediocre, Ross is a great fantasy footballer but will never be anywhere near A-grade. Their young midfield talent still needs major improvement imo. They are hardly the group we should be aspiring to.

But yes, our young midfield stocks are diabolical apart from Cripps. The sad thing is, we really don't have much else in the VFL.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Our VFL stocks do look like as sparse as Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard, but that can be quickly rectified in 18 months time, if we can nail our 2nd/3rd and 4th round picks in the 2016 and 17 drafts (and rookie draft picks)

The source of our list malaise is mainly due to our lack of successful recruiting and development of post round 1 draft picks.

Once we get that in order, then its Everything Coming Up Milhouse time.

The Swans and Crows have found ripper kids late in the draft in the past few years, why do you think Adelaide haven't dropped off since Dangerfield left ?

And may i remind everyone what number in the draft we picked up Simmo ?

Lets put our $ into bolstering our footy/recruiting dept, rather than splash.
the cash on a big name recruit (at least for this draft/trade period)

We need more depth, and we can only get that through better and more concise drafting, which is pretty much what Mal is saying.

 

[Jimmae]

Mcartin, Bruce, Membrey looks like a good forward line to me.

It's a good balance when they're all fit and firing, but Membrey is a beneficiary of their system working smoothly, while Bruce is a grinder akin to Casboult, just with more tricks and a better kick.

With the spate of taller defenders being looked at, he'll have tougher matchups over the next two years.

Meanwhile McCartin seems to have issues managing his diabetes while working in an elite program (not unusual, and not a sleight on him), as well as repeated concussions now. The former will increase his chances of injury and prolong what injuries he does sustain, while the later will act as further factor depending on how much head contact he sustains in an average game.

It's harsh, but in many ways he will struggle to push as hard as others out there because of those two concerns, depending on a few factors.

Anyway, Saints are flavour of the month right now, but I see massive gaps in the way they structure that can be exploited by a better outfit than ours, which is why they're not in the 8. Their midfield is also performing at its maximum, because with the exception of Billings, they drafted physically mature types.

 

[Dramoth]

I dont see trading out 2-4 experienced players to be going full Melbourne.

Even assuming Gibbs, Touhy, Caboult and Everitt get traded out, were left with Murphy, Kruezer, Thomas, Curnow in the middle (and Cripps is doing OK in the side at present without Gibbs). The backline can live without Touhy (Rowe, Doch, Weitering, Plowman, Simpson for one more year, and Byrne to come back after) and Cas isnt exactly doing anything up forward at the moment.

What are we losing trading them out exactly?

In exchange we would get in 2 more 1st round draft picks.

It would be the constant purging of aggressive list management like some of the people on here are suggesting... 12-15 players again this year.

Which means in the last 4 years (2012-2015), we moved on 45 players for various reasons. There has to be a limit to how many times we do this before we are culling the guys we drafted 3-4 years ago. I can understand turning over between 6 and 10 guys each year... based on retirements, trades and guys who were taken as rookies who just haven't measured up.

There has to be a time to stop with the constant mass turnover of players.

 

[Dramoth]

If we fail in getting Steele from GWS... any thoughts on one of Adam Kennedy or Jake Barrett?

 

[Malifice]

Which means in the last 4 years (2012-2015), we moved on 45 players for various reasons.

Thats because all our draftees in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 (barring Cripps) and all the 2014 crop barring Boekhoest, were not up to it. Yarran in 2008 is the only one you can make an argument for, and the best value we got for him was last year when we traded him. Ditto Menzel. Maybe Robinson who hasnt done too badly for a Pick 40.

All of them. Cripps is the only 'win'. In seven years of drafting and development we literally have one quality player to show for it.

I want everyone reading this to stop and think about the size of the hole in our list as a consequence. That is (by a considerable margin) the worst recruiting over a nearly a decade of any club in the AFL. It is beyond arguable. Find me another club that bad. You can go back to 2007 if you want to even the odds when we had pick 1 that year, and all we have from that draft is Kruezer and Army - two servicable players at best.

It is beyond diabolic. It is beyond a shambles.

And I sit here and here people try and argue we can get it together and start to genuinely challenge a team like GWS in their prime (or anyone else for that matter) in just 2-3 more drafts? ****ing please. It would take 2-3 more drafts nailing every single pick (unheard of across the AFL) just to undo half of that mess and have us back up to close to par.

And by the time that happens, Walker, Jamison, Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer, Thomas, will all be gone and out the door, meaning even if we somehow manage to turn around a decade of diabolic recruiting, and absolutely nail 2-3 drafts (as in 'set an AFL record for drafting' levels of nailing them), somehow finding 10 AFL quality or A grade players to fill the holes the past decade has left (we've got a single selection right in 8 years, so im not holding my breath for 10 correct selections in 2-3) we then have to find replacements for those seven players.

And thats the best case scenario here. We nail three- four drafts in a row, each better than any other club in the history of the competition (coming from a position of being the worst at it in the history of the comp) to find around 10 AFL quality players (and at least 5 A graders) just to undo the past decade of drafting blunders, and even then we would still be in a massive hole needing to replace 7 more of out best players (including 3 x number 1 picks and 2 x number 2s).

Ive watched both sides of this argument unfold for 10 years now on this site, and I've had a gutfull. We need to do it right this time. Position ourselves as best as we can in the draft maximising first round selections by trading out agressively, and increase depth by taking advantage of the unique position GWS find themselves in (like we did last year). We then need to nail those picks. Under no circumstances can we sacrifice accuracy and thoroughness for speed. Even then, we're going to need a shitload of luck and a reform of the culture of our players and (from the looks of it) many supporters.

Anyone who is foolish enough to think we're any chance at all of challenging in the next 4-5 years coming from where we've come from, and the list in the shape it's in, is (quite frankly) utterly deluded.

Here is the 2008 Draft. Start here and work your way through it. Seriously - look at it and be objective.

Last year we made the first step in a very long process. I embraced it and I'll embrace us doing similar (trading into the first round, improving our draft position, and improving our depth). Our old guard of players picked 2007 and prior are not going to be a part of any success at this footy club. The sooner people get on board with this (and I mean really get on board with it) the less pain people will have to endure, and the more on task and focussed for the journey we'll all be.

 

[Malifice]

I dont want anyone reading the above an thinking I dont love this club. I do, and im ready for a long journey here.

My family are all Hawthorn supporters. 4 brothers and Mum (God help me). I watched them go from power to complete shambles to nearly merge out of existence, to getting theit shit together to be a power both on the field and off it.

We need to be methodical and not rush anything. Accept the gravity of the situation, dont undersell it or downplay it and take the (monumental) task on. No short cuts, no messiahs, no favored sons. I want this club to be succesful again as much as all of you. I just took my navy blue colored glassess off a while back and I'm damn glad I did.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Blake Acres,Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings, Seb Ross,Jade Gresham ,Jack Steven (26),Jack Newnes, Mav Weller bar Steven are all 25 and under and have all shown the ability to play footy and as a unit, will only get better.

Beats the shit out of our midfield in young talent.

Meh, none of them are better than Cripps. Acres is up and down, Dunstan one dimensional, Billings is a flake, Gresham is a talent and Steven is tallented, Newnes is a HBF and far worse than Doch, Weller is a good get for a defensive forward.

We get a couple of gun midfielders in this draft and we instantly go past that midfield.

 

[footyfan1978]

Even assuming both McKay and Curnow come on (and I hope they do), all we've done is undo one or two of the Lucas/ Watson/ McLean/ Bootsma drafts.

We wouldnt be on top of the drafting issue. Best case scenario, we've only taken half a step to squaring the ledger.

Were coming from a long way back, and a lot of people are putting a lot of stock into the 4 we picked up last year. Its highly unlikely that all of them make it, and even if they do all make it, we're still behind taking into account prior drafting and trading blunders.

We need another 2-3 drafts like last years (4-5 picks inside the top 20 or so, a GWS cast off taken cheaply to come on), and even then we need to nail pretty much all those picks (and uncover a superstar or two) before we can say we're ahead.

Shit, nice to hear someone truly getting where our list was at end of last year. I've always said it was true ground zero because the state the list was in, could not have been stuffed up any more effectively than what had been allowed to take place over quite a few years.

Basically, you got the sense of it. First undo part of the damage just to even get a footing and then actually start to build a list from some foundations. Our list was a war zone site that needed to be seen as ground zero and put in some solid foundations. It's no rebuild because nothing was built in first place to actually make sense to say rebuild. Just a war zone site. We have no forward line. None, that people did not seem to truly get. Incredibly we actually have the makings of back line now. It is first improvement in terms of area of list that can be noticed. But it is a long way from premiership material and best in league. That is where you got to aim to get in every area of team. Build a midfield and ruck division to be the best in league. Build a forward line to be too.
Nobody gets GWS type concessions of massive amounts of early picks at once so the realistic understanding has to be knowing it is likely to take a good 5 to 7 years to draft super well and go from worst list in league to number one. People thinking 3 years have no real grasp of what it will take.

As you said, we are coming from a long way back. We got to bridge a big gap first just for teams around the 8 and then the harder part will be getting near and finally beyond what the GWS type list will look like in 5 to 7 years time. What can happen though is if you actually do draft a few that turn out real guns from same draft, you might be able to get there a little sooner. That happens when you get a gun for a 3rd round type pick and it does happen from time to time for some clubs. (Sam Mitchell pick 36)
Dogs recently been best example of that. Previous decade or two it was Geelong.
Also people need to get a grip that thinking you can trade your way to a gun list is really a fallacy. Maybe once or twice a decade there is a game changer trade that really catapults a club forward. Most trades just are slight improvements to depth (Leigh Brown to Collingwood type things) or moving up a few places in draft order. The real massive changes of fortunes to clubs list are through youngsters that turn out to be guns from the drafts. When Hawks got Roughhead, Franklin and Lewis in one draft that really is a massive improvement to list for future.

If fortune smiles on you and you get a few father-son picks that used to come cheap it can be like getting a 50 metre penalty in your favour from 80 metres bringing you into kicking distance of goals.

The point is, you need a lot of things to go right and a bit of luck too. If any Carlton fan really thinks we are going to see a premiership in 3 or 4 years they really have not truly grasped the horrific state our list was in at end of 2015 season and how hard a task it was, and will continue to be just to even get it above water in 2 or 3 years.
Best list in league ? Gee, will take 5 to 8 years if you do a good job. Aim for 5 and plan to do a good job and you might just get there. Aim for 3 and you setting yourself for more pain in being unrealistic.

Some crazy stuff can happen in 3 years but to actually expect it would be fairytale stuff.

What I expect is to see a well planned aim to build the best list in league and expect that going into season 2021 you really ripe to look towards making grand finals and possibly winning a premiership but more importantly aiming to set a list that is the clear very best going in 2022 and then keep building onto a list that you have the age profile, positional categories so finely balanced that you can aim to keep it the best list in league every year after no matter what. You got to have it so well balanced that you can plan to have years in advance of the ins and outs each off season to keep the age profile working that as gun players age you got players you drafted from previous years ready to be the next mature guns and under that you got the developing guns you drafted 2 or 3 years earlier and under that you got plans to have picks you can use early for more guns and so on and so on.

You got to have a plan for short term, present term and long term. Basically list regeneration every single year to make it stronger or maintain the strength when it is number one eventually.

We did not have the 10th best list in league at end of last season. We did not have the 13th best list at end of last season. We had the clear 18th best list in season. Going into 2016 off season I believe we have shifted in to 17th best list. 16th at best. Hopefully SOS can jump a few more cogs up to 13th or 12th quite quickly and then the coaching staff have the team playing like 8th or 9th best in the league. Incremental steps is where we are at people. Nobody is getting pick 8 of the top 13 picks like Gold Coast got in 2010 or 11 of the top 14 picks like GWS got in 2012. Or GWS getting the next top three picks the following year.
Think how strong GWS is going to be by another couple of years when they are all mature. Think about SOS being aware of it and how he knows we only get given 1 of the first 18 picks each season. Then you get a clearer sense of what the challenge of task he has in store for him for a number of years ahead.
One thing I am sure of. We got the best person to know how to overcome those challenge and still find a way to eventually build a list that is number one in league and then aim to keep it regenerating every year beyond that with a well thought out strategy. Won't happen overnight but it will happen.
You will need patience though if you want to enjoy this journey.
What has been encouraging to me this season is to hear Bolton and others that leaders at club now seem fully aware of where we are coming from, where we are at and where we are going. When Bolts said we just left the station a few months back it was music to my ears to know we had a person switched on to exactly where we stand right in 2016.

 

[Matty411]

Gee Malifice I know you're a supporter but reading that just makes me sad. Would love a bit more optimism to start the day. I know you're more a realist as am I. But still - cheer up!

 

[RoyalParade]

Our VFL stocks do look like as sparse as Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard, but that can be quickly rectified in 18 months time, if we can nail our 2nd/3rd and 4th round picks in the 2016 and 17 drafts (and rookie draft picks)

The source of our list malaise is mainly due to our lack of successful recruiting and development of post round 1 draft picks.

Once we get that in order, then its Everything Coming Up Milhouse time.

The Swans and Crows have found ripper kids late in the draft in the past few years, why do you think Adelaide haven't dropped off since Dangerfield left ?

And may i remind everyone what number in the draft we picked up Simmo ?

Lets put our $ into bolstering our footy/recruiting dept, rather than splash.
the cash on a big name recruit (at least for this draft/trade period)

We need more depth, and we can only get that through better and more concise drafting, which is pretty much what Mal is saying.

Spot on. The draft must be out focus.

And to thier credit, Trigg and bolton have consistently said that throughout the year.

 

[CFC_#17]

Watching the game yesterday, The biggest thing I learnt is our forwards don't know how to lead. They just bunch up 20m in front of the goal then get the ball bombed into them, to catch a pack mark. But the saints forwards leads, then move out to create space behind them for the next player to lead into. I'm not sure if it is the forwards coach or the players, but our forward structure is horrible when we have the ball.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I dont want anyone reading the above an thinking I dont love this club. I do, and im ready for a long journey here.

My family are all Hawthorn supporters. 4 brothers and Mum (God help me). I watched them go from power to complete shambles to nearly merge out of existence, to getting theit shit together to be a power both on the field and off it.

We need to be methodical and not rush anything. Accept the gravity of the situation, dont undersell it or downplay it and take the (monumental) task on. No short cuts, no messiahs, no favored sons. I want this club to be succesful again as much as all of you. I just took my navy blue colored glassess off a while back and I'm damn glad I did.

Put your navy blue glasses back on mal its all good we have bolts . This guy knows what hes doing the 3 weeks against WC Sydney and hawthorn were not an indication of where our list is but it was a big tick for our coach . To have us competing against top 8 sides 3 weeks running is a huge endorsement that we have the right man as our coach . Yes we came back with a thud against a run and gun stkilda which gave us a truer indication of where we are at . But thats fine playing saints run and gun style of footy does not win finals matches . Playing the style of footy we did the previous 3 weeks does . In time and i believe it wont be as long as most think sos will give bolts the players he needs to have us competing with the best and i dont think it will be 5 or 6 drafts full of nailing every pick . We will nail the draft and trade period coming up . From there we will slowly over 2 or 3 years add a couple of pieces each year to the puzzle and then we will be competing strongly . But the icing on the cake wont be adding 2 superstars to the mix that will have us winning grand finals it will be brendan boltons ability to turn a good team into a great team that will be the difference . The strides we have made this year with hiccups along the way of course with bolton at the helm have been enormous . And our little man has only been in the job 5 minutes we should all be very hopeful that he will turn us into competing strongly each and every week in the near future . Then turning us into a winning combination before we really expect it . I may be too hopeful but thats fine by me because i have huge confidence now in bolton silvagni trigg and co .
Disclaimer - must nail this years draft and trade period most important period for us in decades .

 

[Funk]

I got pooh poohed for suggesting we try trade for Tom McDonald a few days ago, but we could have used him today against Membrey.
#JustSaying

It's not today that matters.

Need to take a long term view - best possible team in 2021.

 

[kjr8]

It's a good balance when they're all fit and firing, but Membrey is a beneficiary of their system working smoothly, while Bruce is a grinder akin to Casboult, just with more tricks and a better kick.

With the spate of taller defenders being looked at, he'll have tougher matchups over the next two years.

Meanwhile McCartin seems to have issues managing his diabetes while working in an elite program (not unusual, and not a sleight on him), as well as repeated concussions now. The former will increase his chances of injury and prolong what injuries he does sustain, while the later will act as further factor depending on how much head contact he sustains in an average game.

It's harsh, but in many ways he will struggle to push as hard as others out there because of those two concerns, depending on a few factors.

Anyway, Saints are flavour of the month right now, but I see massive gaps in the way they structure that can be exploited by a better outfit than ours, which is why they're not in the 8. Their midfield is also performing at its maximum, because with the exception of Billings, they drafted physically mature types.

more tricks and better kick equates to 50 goal season.. I'd take that grinder over our version any day.

 

[Unknown Origin]

Thats because all our draftees in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 (barring Cripps) and all the 2014 crop barring Boekhoest, were not up to it. Yarran in 2008 is the only one you can make an argument for, and the best value we got for him was last year when we traded him. Ditto Menzel. Maybe Robinson who hasnt done too badly for a Pick 40.

All of them. Cripps is the only 'win'. In seven years of drafting and development we literally have one quality player to show for it.

I want everyone reading this to stop and think about the size of the hole in our list as a consequence. That is (by a considerable margin) the worst recruiting over a nearly a decade of any club in the AFL. It is beyond arguable. Find me another club that bad. You can go back to 2007 if you want to even the odds when we had pick 1 that year, and all we have from that draft is Kruezer and Army - two servicable players at best.

It is beyond diabolic. It is beyond a shambles.

And I sit here and here people try and argue we can get it together and start to genuinely challenge a team like GWS in their prime (or anyone else for that matter) in just 2-3 more drafts? ******* please. It would take 2-3 more drafts nailing every single pick (unheard of across the AFL) just to undo half of that mess and have us back up to close to par.

And by the time that happens, Walker, Jamison, Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer, Thomas, will all be gone and out the door, meaning even if we somehow manage to turn around a decade of diabolic recruiting, and absolutely nail 2-3 drafts (as in 'set an AFL record for drafting' levels of nailing them), somehow finding 10 AFL quality or A grade players to fill the holes the past decade has left (we've got a single selection right in 8 years, so im not holding my breath for 10 correct selections in 2-3) we then have to find replacements for those seven players.

And thats the best case scenario here. We nail three- four drafts in a row, each better than any other club in the history of the competition (coming from a position of being the worst at it in the history of the comp) to find around 10 AFL quality players (and at least 5 A graders) just to undo the past decade of drafting blunders, and even then we would still be in a massive hole needing to replace 7 more of out best players (including 3 x number 1 picks and 2 x number 2s).

Ive watched both sides of this argument unfold for 10 years now on this site, and I've had a gutfull. We need to do it right this time. Position ourselves as best as we can in the draft maximising first round selections by trading out agressively, and increase depth by taking advantage of the unique position GWS find themselves in (like we did last year). We then need to nail those picks. Under no circumstances can we sacrifice accuracy and thoroughness for speed. Even then, we're going to need a shitload of luck and a reform of the culture of our players and (from the looks of it) many supporters.

Anyone who is foolish enough to think we're any chance at all of challenging in the next 4-5 years coming from where we've come from, and the list in the shape it's in, is (quite frankly) utterly deluded.

Here is the 2008 Draft. Start here and work your way through it. Seriously - look at it and be objective.

Last year we made the first step in a very long process. I embraced it and I'll embrace us doing similar (trading into the first round, improving our draft position, and improving our depth). Our old guard of players picked 2007 and prior are not going to be a part of any success at this footy club. The sooner people get on board with this (and I mean really get on board with it) the less pain people will have to endure, and the more on task and focussed for the journey we'll all be.

It is refreshing to hear this. A lot of people on here seem to still be hesitant as to a FULL rebuild. Unpopular decisions need to be made.

 

[KohPhi]

Meh, none of them are better than Cripps. Acres is up and down, Dunstan one dimensional, Billings is a flake, Gresham is a talent and Steven is tallented, Newnes is a HBF and far worse than Doch, Weller is a good get for a defensive forward.

We get a couple of gun midfielders in this draft and we instantly go past that midfield.

No we wont. Because they too will add a high end pick and unlike us are about to enter a phase where a free agent/big trade will enhance that group as well. To think we will just "add a couple of gun" midfielders and miraculously overtake an extra 2 years development is in my view, the type of thinking that got us into this mess.
Anyway, we are all entitled to our views and whilst I dont agree with yours (and probs vica versa) i respect it

 

[Dramoth]

Thats because all our draftees in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 (barring Cripps) and all the 2014 crop barring Boekhoest, were not up to it. Yarran in 2008 is the only one you can make an argument for, and the best value we got for him was last year when we traded him. Ditto Menzel. Maybe Robinson who hasnt done too badly for a Pick 40.

All of them. Cripps is the only 'win'. In seven years of drafting and development we literally have one quality player to show for it.

I want everyone reading this to stop and think about the size of the hole in our list as a consequence. That is (by a considerable margin) the worst recruiting over a nearly a decade of any club in the AFL. It is beyond arguable. Find me another club that bad. You can go back to 2007 if you want to even the odds when we had pick 1 that year, and all we have from that draft is Kruezer and Army - two servicable players at best.

It is beyond diabolic. It is beyond a shambles.

And I sit here and here people try and argue we can get it together and start to genuinely challenge a team like GWS in their prime (or anyone else for that matter) in just 2-3 more drafts? ******* please. It would take 2-3 more drafts nailing every single pick (unheard of across the AFL) just to undo half of that mess and have us back up to close to par.

And by the time that happens, Walker, Jamison, Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer, Thomas, will all be gone and out the door, meaning even if we somehow manage to turn around a decade of diabolic recruiting, and absolutely nail 2-3 drafts (as in 'set an AFL record for drafting' levels of nailing them), somehow finding 10 AFL quality or A grade players to fill the holes the past decade has left (we've got a single selection right in 8 years, so im not holding my breath for 10 correct selections in 2-3) we then have to find replacements for those seven players.

And thats the best case scenario here. We nail three- four drafts in a row, each better than any other club in the history of the competition (coming from a position of being the worst at it in the history of the comp) to find around 10 AFL quality players (and at least 5 A graders) just to undo the past decade of drafting blunders, and even then we would still be in a massive hole needing to replace 7 more of out best players (including 3 x number 1 picks and 2 x number 2s).

Ive watched both sides of this argument unfold for 10 years now on this site, and I've had a gutfull. We need to do it right this time. Position ourselves as best as we can in the draft maximising first round selections by trading out agressively, and increase depth by taking advantage of the unique position GWS find themselves in (like we did last year). We then need to nail those picks. Under no circumstances can we sacrifice accuracy and thoroughness for speed. Even then, we're going to need a shitload of luck and a reform of the culture of our players and (from the looks of it) many supporters.

Anyone who is foolish enough to think we're any chance at all of challenging in the next 4-5 years coming from where we've come from, and the list in the shape it's in, is (quite frankly) utterly deluded.

Here is the 2008 Draft. Start here and work your way through it. Seriously - look at it and be objective.

Last year we made the first step in a very long process. I embraced it and I'll embrace us doing similar (trading into the first round, improving our draft position, and improving our depth). Our old guard of players picked 2007 and prior are not going to be a part of any success at this footy club. The sooner people get on board with this (and I mean really get on board with it) the less pain people will have to endure, and the more on task and focussed for the journey we'll all be.

The 2006 draft was, apart from Gibbs, a complete bust as well. Griggs and Hampson are serviceable players at best for Richmond. The depth of talent in that draft was awesome. The next best player for us in that draft was Jacobs... and we let him walk 4 years later for a song.

We could have taken Justin Westhoff with one out last picks and we would have laughing.

Years of nightmare drafting and lack of quality development.

 

[LordLucifer]

Our VFL stocks do look like as sparse as Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard, but that can be quickly rectified in 18 months time, if we can nail our 2nd/3rd and 4th round picks in the 2016 and 17 drafts (and rookie draft picks)

We need more depth, and we can only get that through better and more concise drafting, which is pretty much what Mal is saying.

I don't think there is anything that can be done "quickly" these days when it comes to the list management/rebuild especially if you are virtually starting from scratch like we are.

You are quite right in that our biggest Achilles heel in the previous decade is our inability to have "hits" in the later rounds of the draft. We'd normally nail a first-rounder (hell, 95% of the posters on this board could do that) and then completely fail with everything else that came after that.

If you look at this purely from a mathematical perspective, we get an average of six picks per annum so factoring in a failure rate of 33%, it is imperative that we get four really good hits per year going forward.

Throw in a few smart trades and a FA or two down the track and it won't take too long before we have a nucleus of 30 guys capable of playing senior footy.