List Mgmt. 2016 Free Agency/Trades/Draft thread Part 2

[Scorpus]

Ok i accept the argument ....but due to the accuracy deviation and back and forward loading, it really tells us nothing that any conclusions could be drawn from

Yeah it's more a bit of fun than actual analysis. If I did it over 3 or 4 years I could probably get it a bit closer to reality considering most of the list gets recontracted in that period, would give a better look at how much space we have left over each year, which would indicate how much we'd front/back load in that year

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Just a rumour

I wasn't discounting Carlton at all ......sounds like there's a few interested in Lyons

 

[Crouch#44]

I wasn't discounting Carlton at all ......sounds like there's a few interested in Lyons

They wanted him last year but changed to kedge last min

 

[Red mist]

They wanted him last year but changed to kedge last min

Really?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yeah it's more a bit of fun than actual analysis. If I did it over 3 or 4 years I could probably get it a bit closer to reality considering most of the list gets recontracted in that period, would give a better look at how much space we have left over each year, which would indicate how much we'd front/back load in that year

You think so? given the contract $ are normally speculated by the media and not the club

example: Hartlett talked about as being on $700K per year .....tweet comes this afternoon saying it's closer to $600K ......that's a differential of $150K and still only a guess

 

[WaynesWorld19]

They wanted him last year but changed to kedge last min

How do you know this?

 

[Scorpus]

You think so? given the contract $ are normally speculated by the media and not the club

example: Hartlett talked about as being on $700K per year .....tweet comes this afternoon saying it's closer to $600K ......that's a differential of $150K and still only a guess

Well to make the above chart I looked up the breakdown of player payments, the salary cap, and then estimated contract values by slotting players into the breakdown of player payments. Then I adjusted some things based on player performance. It's best to ignore what the media speculates because I reckon they overestimate salaries all the time; the amount of people they claim are on $600k+ contracts wouldn't fit with the AFL figures.

I don't reckon Hartlett is on $700k at all. Like I said, that would be top 1-2 at the club. I suspect he's in the $500-600k bracket at most.

 

[Crouch#44]

How do you know this?

Wild guess

 

[Vhaluus]

You think so? given the contract $ are normally speculated by the media and not the club

example: Hartlett talked about as being on $700K per year .....tweet comes this afternoon saying it's closer to $600K ......that's a differential of $150K and still only a guess

Huh 700-600=150?

 

[Crouch#44]

I wasn't discounting Carlton at all ......sounds like there's a few interested in Lyons

North Melbourne if I was to punt

 

[WaynesWorld19]

North Melbourne if I was to punt

seems a strange choice of player if correct by North Melbourne .....they seem as confused as Richmond as to where they sit in list development / premiership chances ?

I would have thought NM would have been better going to the draft as often as possible to get quality youth?

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Ok i accept the argument ....but due to the accuracy deviation and back and forward loading, it really tells us nothing that any conclusions could be drawn from

Yes it does. It gives us a sense as to whether we are close to the cap or have space to play with.

 

[Crouch#44]

seems a strange choice of player if correct by North Melbourne .....they seem as confused as Richmond as to where they sit in list development / premiership chances ?

I would have thought NM would have been better going to the draft as often as possible to get quality youth?

As I said it is a punt, can't see north taking a full rebuild more add new legs to the team and have lost midfield forward power

Demonds won't want him like last year

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yes it does. It gives us a sense as to whether we are close to the cap or have space to play with.

Tells us no such thing, it's all guesswork .......see this is what i said would happen Scorpus posters accepting your numbers as fact

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Tells us no such thing, it's all guesswork .......see this is what i said would happen Scorpus posters accepting your numbers as fact

Yeah, because everything I read on this board I take as fact.

You're such a holier than thou twerp WW.

 

[Footypie32]

I actually see a few issues with our salary cap in 2018. Walker, Douglas, Sloane, Laird, Cameron, Lynch, M. Crouch, Smith and Atkins all out of contract and perhaps wanting a bit more cash, plus Brown, Betts, Lever, Hartigan, Milera, McGovern in 2017.

We'd be hoping for a significant increase in the cap over the next few years to retain players and also trade in a big name on good coin.

This is why we only wanted to give Jenkins a 2 year deal initially. We want some flexibility for 2018. Hopefully we front loaded his contract as much as possible.

 

[Scorpus]

Tells us no such thing, it's all guesswork .......see this is what i said would happen Scorpus posters accepting your numbers as fact

I'm pretty sure I mentioned it was all rough guesswork. Saves people making guesses themselves

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I'm pretty sure I mentioned it was all rough guesswork. Saves people making guesses themselves

Be careful Scorpus , we're all sheep you know and have no capacity to apply our own filter to anything that is posted on here. We're lucky Wayne's-World is here to do the filtering for us.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm pretty sure I mentioned it was all rough guesswork. Saves people making guesses themselves

The guesswork though on Mackay's contract is now indoctrinated in BF folklaw as fact though

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Be careful Scorpus , we're all sheep you know and have no capacity to apply our own filter to anything that is posted on here. We're lucky Wayne's-World is here to do the filtering for us.

I'll endeavor to help you as best i can .......god knows you need it

 

[Wymo]

North Melbourne if I was to punt

They've already got Cunnington, Ziebell, Swallow and occasionally Dumont and Jacobs as inside mids. I would definitely be going for pace instead.

 

[Tex200]

Anyone had any Fyfe chatter on their radar?

Was on radio apparently?????

 

[WaynesWorld19]

They've already got Cunnington, Ziebell, Swallow and occasionally Dumont and Jacobs as inside mids. I would definitely be going for pace instead.

More likely a rumor spread by Lyons management to spur things on .....as you say, if North lose their only quick midfielder in Wells as expected .....why chase a slow midfielder ?

 

[MRB37]

Anyone had any Fyfe chatter on their radar?

Was on radio apparently?????

Saw it pop up on Twitter. Hopefully no one gets their hopes up so we don't have to see pages of posts bagging the club for not getting a player who was never attainable in the first place.

 

[Scorpus]

The guesswork though on Mackay's contract is now indoctrinated in BF folklaw as fact though

I wouldn't be surprised if ~$400k was his contract given our list profile at the time (heading in to 2015). Mackay had played 120 games, and in the following year we only had a 10 guys on >100 games on the list (Thompson, Betts, Van Berlo, Douglas, Jacobs, Dangerfield, Sloane, Podsiadly, Reilly + Mackay).

Going purely on games played, he was in our top 10 players, which would place his contract in the upper $300k to lower $400k mark, going by the AFL distribution of wages. He was also in his 'prime' and could have attracted interest from other clubs, which could have increased the contract a bit.