2016 AFL - Grand Final

[Spads]

Been backing against the bulldogs all finals, and got it wrong every time. Fug it, I'm going with them on saturday.

I'm also backing against Sydney getting the kind of start they've been afforded in the last 2 weeks. Highly doubt they can do that 3 weeks in a row.

 

[Mudeo]

L Hunter:
30 or more disposals @ 3.30
35 @ 10
40 @ 61

 

[csnody]

swans 1-39 looks the goods

Time after time with the images that don't load. Can I suggest Gyazo or Puush?

 

[Island Bomber]

It works both ways. WB arguably aren't the Swans/Dockers/Eagles of recent years.

I reckon the Swans are a touch of overs and would be happy to bet them H2H, at the line and 39+

I would argue that the Dogs finals series this year has been more impressive than any of the other 3 teams mentioned. Dogs have travelled twice interstate for wins and also beaten the reigning premiers convincingly. That form is much more impressive than winning two home finals and then straight into the grand final which both WC and Sydney did. Freo's win in Geelong week 1 of the 2013 finals, followed by a home prelim victory would rank second hardest to me out of the last 4 years.

 

[free at last]

I think I just heard on the footy show that a single bet of 375k has been wagered on Sydney.

 

[Spads]

I think I just heard on the footy show that a single bet of 375k has been wagered on Sydney.

If Sportsbet will take a 375k bet, the bettor must be a proven mug of the highest order.

Which is paradoxical, as how does such a mug get 375k.

In summary, sounds like BS to me.

 

[mookieb]

If Sportsbet will take a 375k bet, the bettor must be a proven mug of the highest order.

Which is paradoxical, as how does such a mug get 375k.

In summary, sounds like BS to me.

The market for the AFL Grand Final would have to be so large why would they worry about a large bet? Simply shorten Sydney and money for WB would come in?

 

[Jugada]

Not sure a punters past history makes a great deal of difference when accepting a single $375k bet

 

[free at last]

If Sportsbet will take a 375k bet, the bettor must be a proven mug of the highest order.

Which is paradoxical, as how does such a mug get 375k.

In summary, sounds like BS to me.

It didn't state which book had taken the 375k wager.

 

[Boxhead182]

People believe anything really. It's just like those multi tickets TAB post on Facebook where some guy has apparently won 20 grand off a 10$ bet. They post em all the time and are soooooo fake but I'm sure it sucks alot of people in

I'm taking the dogs straight up

 

[iluvparis]

I would argue that the Dogs finals series this year has been more impressive than any of the other 3 teams mentioned. Dogs have travelled twice interstate for wins and also beaten the reigning premiers convincingly. That form is much more impressive than winning two home finals and then straight into the grand final which both WC and Sydney did. Freo's win in Geelong week 1 of the 2013 finals, followed by a home prelim victory would rank second hardest to me out of the last 4 years.

West Coast beat the reining premiers last year on the way to the grand final too

 

[Spads]

Not sure a punters past history makes a great deal of difference when accepting a single $375k bet

Fair point. I just can't reconcile a bookie limiting average punters to $5 Max bets, then taking 375k bet from an account set up yesterday.

 

[karaoke]

Fair point. I just can't reconcile a bookie limiting average punters to $5 Max bets, then taking 375k bet from an account set up yesterday.

When was that stated?

 

[plshelpme]

Hi guys need some assistance

I put some money on the bulldogs when they were 67.00 to win the premiership.
I also put some more on after their west coast win when they were 15.00

So if the bulldogs win tomorrow i'll win $1,160

Do you guys reckon i should hedge? if so how much?

 

[iluvparis]

How much did you bet on them in total and which bookies did you have accounts with?

 

[BORK]

You have to go all the way back to the dim dark days of 2015 to find an outsider this big.

Swans were also $2.55 in 2012

I got Hawthorn at $2.85 a couple of hours before the bounce in 2014. Went big on them as well.

 

[iluvparis]

I got Hawthorn at $2.85 a couple of hours before the bounce in 2014. Went big on them as well.

I find that a little difficult to believe given they started $2.30

 

[BORK]

I find that a little difficult to believe given they started $2.30

TAB Victoria. Can only find my records to the start of 2015 on there. If I am wrong it would have still been $2.65 at the worst. It was about timing as I recall watching them shorten afterwards. Do not recall them starting at $2.30 though(maybe $2.40?).

 

[plshelpme]

How much did you bet on them in total and which bookies did you have accounts with?

Total outlay is $30
All with sportsbet.

Should i hedge?

I'm thinking of letting it ride for a few reasons

1. Sydney's form possibly overrated.
Sydney defeated Geelong (not a great side) and Adelaide (likewise + at the SCG). Sydney were convincingly beaten by GWS only a few weeks ago (although Sydney had a few injuries on that day).

2. Bulldogs match up well with Sydney
Sydney's key strength is their inside midfield/contested ball. This is an area where the Bulldogs also excel at. I think the bulldogs can match them on the inside and therefore will neutralise Sydney's number 1 strength.

 

[iluvparis]

TAB Victoria. Can only find my records to the start of 2015 on there. If I am wrong it would have still been $2.65 at the worst. It was about timing as I recall watching them shorten afterwards. Do not recall them starting at $2.30 though(maybe $2.40?).

Footywire has them starting $2.30

 

[FallingLiefs]

Total outlay is $30
All with sportsbet.

Should i hedge?

I'm thinking of letting it ride for a few reasons

1. Sydney's form possibly overrated.
Sydney defeated Geelong (not a great side) and Adelaide (likewise + at the SCG). Sydney were convincingly beaten by GWS only a few weeks ago (although Sydney had a few injuries on that day).

2. Bulldogs match up well with Sydney
Sydney's key strength is their inside midfield/contested ball. This is an area where the Bulldogs also excel at. I think the bulldogs can match them on the inside and therefore will neutralise Sydney's number 1 strength.

if you're thinking of letting it ride. i'd throw $160 on Sydney at 1.65, get $105 back or $75 profit on overall outlay

that way Dogs win - $1000, Sydney win $75 profit. if you spread it over a couple money back promo's you can end up with an even better result.

edit:

if you have the accounts id do

$50 on crown (Money back if loss) for $32.50
$80 on lux (double winings sydney win) for $102
$50 on lads (sydney $2) for $100
$80 on sports (double winnings) for $102

which is......

$210 on Sydney at 1.65 ($136.5)
$50 on sydney at 2 ($50)
$15 WBD at 67 ($1160)

if sydney win:

$186.50 in cash, $100 in bonus bets - $30 spent on WBD and other team

if WBD win

$900 in cash, $50 in bonus bets - $30 spent on WBD and other team



which is

$920 vs $256.50 sydney.

i think my maths is right....

if you dont like bonus bets or don't have the accounts it's really still the same result as just putting $200 on sydney

 

[iluvparis]

Total outlay is $30
All with sportsbet.

Should i hedge?

I'm thinking of letting it ride for a few reasons

1. Sydney's form possibly overrated.
Sydney defeated Geelong (not a great side) and Adelaide (likewise + at the SCG). Sydney were convincingly beaten by GWS only a few weeks ago (although Sydney had a few injuries on that day).

2. Bulldogs match up well with Sydney
Sydney's key strength is their inside midfield/contested ball. This is an area where the Bulldogs also excel at. I think the bulldogs can match them on the inside and therefore will neutralise Sydney's number 1 strength.

It depends what kind of payoffs you want:

Swans v Dogs
-30 v +1130 now

Various options if you throw x $100s on the Swans (assuming you get 1.60):
+30 v +1030
90 v 930
150 v 830
210 v 730
270 v 630
330 v 530
390 v 430

You can probably do better than these with the various promos around

 

[benno_]

not sure if anyones mentioned it yet, but tabtouch has cash back (not a bonus) on a FGS if they kick one in the first quarter, buddy @7 looks a good option.

Couple of goals markets at bet365 i think are overs and putting small stakes on

Picken 2+ goals @10
Picken 3+ goals @51
Looked pretty dangerous up forward in the finals and kicked 2,3,0 so far.

Papley 2+ @3
Leading goal scorer for the finals, could easily get a couple

 

[BORK]

Footywire has them starting $2.30

http://www.oddsportal.com/aussie-rules/australia/afl-2014/results/
This has them at $2.48

 

[Spads]

Total outlay is $30
All with sportsbet.

Should i hedge?

I'm thinking of letting it ride for a few reasons

1. Sydney's form possibly overrated.
Sydney defeated Geelong (not a great side) and Adelaide (likewise + at the SCG). Sydney were convincingly beaten by GWS only a few weeks ago (although Sydney had a few injuries on that day).

2. Bulldogs match up well with Sydney
Sydney's key strength is their inside midfield/contested ball. This is an area where the Bulldogs also excel at. I think the bulldogs can match them on the inside and therefore will neutralise Sydney's number 1 strength.

30 bucks? Let it ride, brother.