List Mgmt. 2016 Trade and Free Agency Targets Inner Sanctum Thread. Part 3

[Kilroy]

.... A strategy of generating multiple picks has likely been wargamed.

Bains has clearly indicated that pick 10 is available as the teaser for a pick split.

What those picks prove to be is guesswork.

The fallback is clearly to retain pick 10.

And here's my best guess:

The 2016 St Kilda trade and draft objective is:

To trade pick 10 to GC for picks 22, 23 & 25.
Add J Steele for future 2017 2nd round pick
Trade out players and picks (2016 3rd round etc) for a future 2017 2nd round pick.

Now how those picks are used is the interesting bit.

Meanwhile, somewhere in a back room in Seaford ....

 

[St Neil]

Let me make it quite clear that I have no inside knowledge of the 2016 St Kilda trade and draft strategy.

Simply observation and collation of publicly available information.

There are people on this board who are much better placed than me in making judgments about players, and much better informed about the happenings at Seaford.

But my exposure to Richmond's conundrum, and what they are trying to do to fix it, has had me thinking about St Kilda's objectives for this draft/trade.

For what it is worth, this is what I've come up with:

This years draft is unique in the sense that, with the exception of the years heralding the arrival of the expansion clubs, no single club will dominate the draft high end like GC will this year.

Ultimately whatever happens draft day will be determined by GC.

As such, it could be skewed in three ways.

As has been noted elsewhere on this board (via HBF), it is entirely possible that GC's picks that day are: 4, 6 (exchanged for Prestia), 8, 10 (exchanged with St Kilda for a combination of three of GC's second round picks), 14 (exchanged with Hawthorn for O'Meara) plus 22, 23, 25 and 28 (less what is traded back to St Kilda for pick 10).

Should they choose to go that way, GC would probably only use: 4, 6, 8, 10 and 14.

All other picks would be traded for future picks and/or players.

So the draft may be skewed by the dominance of one club.

Plus GWS has multiple high end picks, Essendon have offered pick 1 for multiple picks as also Brisbane with pick 2.

In normal years, high end picks are typically "best available".

This year the multiple picks allow GC & GWS (or Essendon or Brisbane) to select "best for purpose".

For example: if the 10 best players are mids it would be pointless for GC to select four mids with 4, 6, 8 and 10 and ignore their other needs.

So the possibility of high end picks sliding lower this year is quite high.

That's the second way this draft may be skewed.

Plus (per Pelchen and others) the top 30 this year consists of 6 elites and 24 high quality draftees. With the latter's talent spread unusually evenly.

So it is quite possible that this year pick 30 is just as talented as pick 7.

And that's the third way the draft may be skewed.

The implications for St Kilda are quite clear:

Pick 10 is unlikely to secure one of the six elite.

Pick 10 may prove to be just as valuable as pick 30.

St Kilda is only midway through the rebuild (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is highly confident in its ability to develop players.

St Kilda has a good recent track record of player development to support this confidence.

St Kilda's strategy has been based on requiring multiple quality picks in the early rounds in order to quicken the rebuild and St Kilda is sticking to this strategy (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is amenable to pick splitting this year (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda requires 3 picks under 30 to swap pick 10.

(Note: This requirement has already been indicated by BS separately).

Multiple picks, particularly close together, allows St Kilda to "draft for purpose". (As done with Dunstan/Acres and Goddard/McKenzie).

A strategy of generating multiple picks has likely been wargamed.

Bains has clearly indicated that pick 10 is available as the teaser for a pick split.

What those picks prove to be is guesswork.

The fallback is clearly to retain pick 10.

And here's my best guess:

The 2016 St Kilda trade and draft objective is:

To trade pick 10 to GC for picks 22, 23 & 25.
Add J Steele for future 2017 2nd round pick
Trade out players and picks (2016 3rd round etc) for a future 2017 2nd round pick.

Now how those picks are used is the interesting bit.

Well played. Very well played.

I'm not sure pick 10 will net 3 picks in the 20s. I suspect GC will look to trade one of them for a future pick. But a well thought out and considered post.

Maybe we need to thrown in a future 3rd rounder to help the deal.

 

[St Neil]

What you're saying may be correct if St Kilda agree with Pelican that it's a clear Top 6. Although I'll back St Kilda's own rankings and strategies, I will be seriously underwhelmed if Pick 10 isn't used by us come Draft night. Hopefully it'll be the last 10 we have for a while- use it.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think the post was rationalising how the words of Bains can be put into effect.

The only way to get 3 picks in the top 30 is to trade out players or trade out elite pick(s). With the rebuild only half finished the emphasis is going to be on the draft and keeping existing talent. Hence picks is the currency.

I agree, using pick 10 seems more palatable to me. If the draft is very even then the diluting of pick 10 into multiple second round picks would make sense.

It's worked for the Bulldogs. And our recruiters are also top notch.

 

[austinnn]

Let me make it quite clear that I have no inside knowledge of the 2016 St Kilda trade and draft strategy.

Simply observation and collation of publicly available information.

There are people on this board who are much better placed than me in making judgments about players, and much better informed about the happenings at Seaford.

But my exposure to Richmond's conundrum, and what they are trying to do to fix it, has had me thinking about St Kilda's objectives for this draft/trade.

For what it is worth, this is what I've come up with:

This years draft is unique in the sense that, with the exception of the years heralding the arrival of the expansion clubs, no single club will dominate the draft high end like GC will this year.

Ultimately whatever happens draft day will be determined by GC.

As such, it could be skewed in three ways.

As has been noted elsewhere on this board (via HBF), it is entirely possible that GC's picks that day are: 4, 6 (exchanged for Prestia), 8, 10 (exchanged with St Kilda for a combination of three of GC's second round picks), 14 (exchanged with Hawthorn for O'Meara) plus 22, 23, 25 and 28 (less what is traded back to St Kilda for pick 10).

Should they choose to go that way, GC would probably only use: 4, 6, 8, 10 and 14.

All other picks would be traded for future picks and/or players.

So the draft may be skewed by the dominance of one club.

Plus GWS has multiple high end picks, Essendon have offered pick 1 for multiple picks as also Brisbane with pick 2.

In normal years, high end picks are typically "best available".

This year the multiple picks allow GC & GWS (or Essendon or Brisbane) to select "best for purpose".

For example: if the 10 best players are mids it would be pointless for GC to select four mids with 4, 6, 8 and 10 and ignore their other needs.

So the possibility of high end picks sliding lower this year is quite high.

That's the second way this draft may be skewed.

Plus (per Pelchen and others) the top 30 this year consists of 6 elites and 24 high quality draftees. With the latter's talent spread unusually evenly.

So it is quite possible that this year pick 30 is just as talented as pick 7.

And that's the third way the draft may be skewed.

The implications for St Kilda are quite clear:

Pick 10 is unlikely to secure one of the six elite.

Pick 10 may prove to be just as valuable as pick 30.

St Kilda is only midway through the rebuild (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is highly confident in its ability to develop players.

St Kilda has a good recent track record of player development to support this confidence.

St Kilda's strategy has been based on requiring multiple quality picks in the early rounds in order to quicken the rebuild and St Kilda is sticking to this strategy (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is amenable to pick splitting this year (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda requires 3 picks under 30 to swap pick 10.

(Note: This requirement has already been indicated by BS separately).

Multiple picks, particularly close together, allows St Kilda to "draft for purpose". (As done with Dunstan/Acres and Goddard/McKenzie).

A strategy of generating multiple picks has likely been wargamed.

Bains has clearly indicated that pick 10 is available as the teaser for a pick split.

What those picks prove to be is guesswork.

The fallback is clearly to retain pick 10.

And here's my best guess:

The 2016 St Kilda trade and draft objective is:

To trade pick 10 to GC for picks 22, 23 & 25.
Add J Steele for future 2017 2nd round pick
Trade out players and picks (2016 3rd round etc) for a future 2017 2nd round pick.

Now how those picks are used is the interesting bit.

The best Trade post in about 3 years and people would still rather talk about who's the better player out of Billings and Templeton? Apart from anything the comparison has nothing to do with trades. On the other hand we have seriously well-thought-out hypothetical but we could be discussing although actually it's so dead on but there's not really much to discuss. None the less I like the cut of this new guy's jib.

 

[Rors]

Let me make it quite clear that I have no inside knowledge of the 2016 St Kilda trade and draft strategy.

Simply observation and collation of publicly available information.

There are people on this board who are much better placed than me in making judgments about players, and much better informed about the happenings at Seaford.

But my exposure to Richmond's conundrum, and what they are trying to do to fix it, has had me thinking about St Kilda's objectives for this draft/trade.

For what it is worth, this is what I've come up with:

This years draft is unique in the sense that, with the exception of the years heralding the arrival of the expansion clubs, no single club will dominate the draft high end like GC will this year.

Ultimately whatever happens draft day will be determined by GC.

As such, it could be skewed in three ways.

As has been noted elsewhere on this board (via HBF), it is entirely possible that GC's picks that day are: 4, 6 (exchanged for Prestia), 8, 10 (exchanged with St Kilda for a combination of three of GC's second round picks), 14 (exchanged with Hawthorn for O'Meara) plus 22, 23, 25 and 28 (less what is traded back to St Kilda for pick 10).

Should they choose to go that way, GC would probably only use: 4, 6, 8, 10 and 14.

All other picks would be traded for future picks and/or players.

So the draft may be skewed by the dominance of one club.

Plus GWS has multiple high end picks, Essendon have offered pick 1 for multiple picks as also Brisbane with pick 2.

In normal years, high end picks are typically "best available".

This year the multiple picks allow GC & GWS (or Essendon or Brisbane) to select "best for purpose".

For example: if the 10 best players are mids it would be pointless for GC to select four mids with 4, 6, 8 and 10 and ignore their other needs.

So the possibility of high end picks sliding lower this year is quite high.

That's the second way this draft may be skewed.

Plus (per Pelchen and others) the top 30 this year consists of 6 elites and 24 high quality draftees. With the latter's talent spread unusually evenly.

So it is quite possible that this year pick 30 is just as talented as pick 7.

And that's the third way the draft may be skewed.

The implications for St Kilda are quite clear:

Pick 10 is unlikely to secure one of the six elite.

Pick 10 may prove to be just as valuable as pick 30.

St Kilda is only midway through the rebuild (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is highly confident in its ability to develop players.

St Kilda has a good recent track record of player development to support this confidence.

St Kilda's strategy has been based on requiring multiple quality picks in the early rounds in order to quicken the rebuild and St Kilda is sticking to this strategy (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda is amenable to pick splitting this year (Bains on Trade Radio).

St Kilda requires 3 picks under 30 to swap pick 10.

(Note: This requirement has already been indicated by BS separately).

Multiple picks, particularly close together, allows St Kilda to "draft for purpose". (As done with Dunstan/Acres and Goddard/McKenzie).

A strategy of generating multiple picks has likely been wargamed.

Bains has clearly indicated that pick 10 is available as the teaser for a pick split.

What those picks prove to be is guesswork.

The fallback is clearly to retain pick 10.

And here's my best guess:

The 2016 St Kilda trade and draft objective is:

To trade pick 10 to GC for picks 22, 23 & 25.
Add J Steele for future 2017 2nd round pick
Trade out players and picks (2016 3rd round etc) for a future 2017 2nd round pick.

Now how those picks are used is the interesting bit.

Pelchen is a Head of Football/List Manager type. He works with recruiters/scouts to find players or picks to trade for.

The fact is says the top 6 are elite & the next 24 are very good means little as he isn't a recruiter.

I'd be backing Bains, Elshaug & Phillips to know more than Chris Pelchen

 

[The_Steadier]

finlayson is contracted till the end of next year according to the info from the giants bnf.

 

[HughGOATard]

Sooo..... has Steele nominated us yet?

 

[JG22]

Sooo..... has Steele nominated us yet?

Haha give it a bit more time
... Monday

 

[St BKD]

thats your opinion
Armo for a 1st rounder IS benefitting the team in the future imo, just because it is said doesn't mean its going to happen.

Armo comes up because when you look at players with value, who can be covered by others we have, who don't really possess traits that are unique or hard to find, (outright pace, elite skills)( his endeavour and taking are great ) who may fit into the needs of other clubs.

If GC came to us and said Armo for 8 or even for 14 (Haw 1st rnd) and he was happy to go, ( and I've said before I doubt he would ) then I would probably do the deal, because imo we are still 2yrs away from top 4 potential, we have others that are in the captaincy frame, and his leadership maybe the reasoning they are willing to part with such a high pick.

there is a risk in everything, if we hold onto him and he never gets back to 2015 form, we have good but not great older midfielder with a history of back issues. take pick 8/14 and it has the potential to be an elite mid........... or a dud.

its a forum full of people discussing different things, you seem to think your opinion is worth more than anyone else's.........................................................What is wrong with you?

So let me get this straight... you miss quote me and assume that I think my opinion is superior to others then ask 'what is wrong with you'. Yer nah good one mate.


Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Mat Mann]

So let me get this straight... you miss quote me and assume that I think my opinion is superior to others then ask 'what is wrong with you'. Yer nah good one mate.


Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

How did I miss quote you exactly?

 

[Baker_for_PM]

Meanwhile, somewhere in a back room in Seaford ....

View attachment 297618

The rest of the staff at Seaford.

 

[St BKD]

How did I miss quote you exactly?

Never did I say Armo for a 1st rounder wasn't a good idea. Then you went on your stupid rant based on me saying it.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[dewah07]

Are u saying Templeton is in our best 22 in the future? LOL please tell me ur joking

nope, rate his game massively.

you can't just trade speedy good endurance good kick players in the afl. his body isn't at afl level but I'm patient along as we have guys like panther on the list

 

[dewah07]

And Sam Mitchell was too slow like Dunstan

andrew mcloeds knock going into the draft was lack of leg speed

but everyones right..

 

[dewah07]

players like cripps and bont have changed for the worse how players are views in years 1,2 and 3 in their draft years. if you can't make it in those years then apparently your a spud/delist/deport/execute.

bloody hell stop being spuds when it comes to development in players, some guys take time FFS, think back to when you campaigners where 21 and if you were mature enough to play AFL.

 

[Murraj1966]

Can't wait for Monday so we can end all this speculation

 

[Jade Buddha]

There's plenty on our list with up side now so to some extent we don't need to keep shoving developing players out. There should be a few retiring coupled with those that don't come on to make space as we improve.
I hope we don't go for players in other clubs that are better now but mid career and little scope for improvement

 

[Jade Buddha]

Can't wait for Monday so we can end all this speculation

Things may not move that quickly. Could be a while before we see trades happen.

 

[Hayes4PM]

players like cripps and bont have changed for the worse how players are views in years 1,2 and 3 in their draft years. if you can't make it in those years then apparently your a spud/delist/deport/execute.

bloody hell stop being spuds when it comes to development in players, some guys take time FFS, think back to when you campaigners where 21 and if you were mature enough to play AFL.

At 21 I believe I would have fit right in at Lambert's Den, could have been the next Whitfield if it wasn't for my bung heart.

 

[Ekomaira]

From outside 50. This kid is hopeless yeah right. Thats one of the best finishes I´ve ever seen.

first ever goal just quietly

 

[austinnn]

At 21 I believe I would have fit right in at Lambert's Den, could have been the next Whitfield if it wasn't for my bung heart.

At the age of 21 I don't even think I would have been focused enough to watch a full game of football, let alone play one.

 

[Linton St]

Hmm fit and firing N Brown Carlisle and Geary in the backline sounds very reliable.
Then again a fit chb line of Webster Dempster Savage sounds solid too. The key word is fit.
We need a good tall defender and N Brown is a FA with Goddard in production, why wouldnt the club just throw some extra cash at him and just get it done! Tomorrow!

Surely we've sounded out E. McKenzie, & with a B&F only a few years ago prior to his ACL was one of the best KD's going round.
If it costs us next year's second, it'd be a draft pick well spent. Would bring a great deal more to our backline than N.Brown.
At best Brown's a plodder with no rebound or intercept tools within his limited ability.
I can't recall many ex Pie players in recent years coming to the Saints, other than Monkey & Francis..
In 2016 Tom Lee was a better defender than Brown, & can be switched forward to some effect..
EMac will be back to his best next year, & he'd be an important pick up complimenting JC..
A spine reading the following, puts us right into top 6 calculations for next year..
McKenzie
Carlisle
Acres/Ross
Bruce
McCartin/Membrey

 

[can coach]

Well played. Very well played.

I'm not sure pick 10 will net 3 picks in the 20s. I suspect GC will look to trade one of them for a future pick. But a well thought out and considered post.

Maybe we need to thrown in a future 3rd rounder to help the deal.

I think if you go by the point system pick 10 would get 2 picks in the mid 20's. I'd love to keep 10 and possibly do the slide back with a future first rounder. Not sure what club would be willing to do that thou.

 

[Linton St]

Eli has never, not once, had as many possessions in a game as what Billings or Dunstan average.... Not even close in fact.

VFL is VFL.

The kid's only 21, & still learning the caper.
He landed equal 5th in the Liston trophy at just 21, he's worth another year at least in my reckoning..
What i like about Eli is his composure, & his polish by hand or foot whilst gaining yardage. (Slight resemblance to Joey)
I'd like to see us keep Eli, considering the serious injury he's come back from..

 

[Linton St]

Dont think Luke has has a right foot or any where near the ball winning or the evasive skills of Sam? Thats something you learn as a kid...

I was staggered when I heard the other day, that practising on both sides was rare at junior level..
Any coincidence that slow players like Mitchell & G Williams, are/were so integral to the fortunes of their sides..
It's a very handy tool, being efficient on both sides whether hands or feet..
How often did/would you see these slow players get caught holding the ball.
With one step you can turn to either side & still hit up a target!