Analysis Our Forward 6

[theGav56]

Starting forward line for 2018;

Bennell McCarthy Darcy

Langdon Apeness Walters

But there are way too many ifs and buts.

Bennell and Ballantyne, who knows what happens there. Apeness too.

Darcy definitely has a future as a ruck, but will playing him forward hinder or help his development?

Langdon is a pup.

McCarthy is a work in progress and not an ideal go to guy.

But we also have a pocketful of others to work with , and I don't discount Kersten and expect one of Cox or Logue to be contenders. Plus we have Strnadica on the slow burn.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

I think people are underestimating how crucial Apeness is to our structure. Takes some absolute clunkers, which we not only lack, but it actually makes all the blind bombs to a pack somewhat workable. His ability to bust a pack open and bring the ball to ground helps feed our smalls, and his physicality really contributes to our forward pressure.

It says something about the state of our list if a kid who has played just 5-10 games would be our first choice KPF.

Once he's up and got a bit of continuity, I really think he'll turn heads.

Also, if we're going to persist with 2 ruckman, and frankly we need to ad we simply have nothing else, then Griff must be on ball and Sandi the stay at home FF. Simply maximises the output we get from the two of them combined.

 

[meima]

Do freo need two genuine ruck men Griff /Sandi?

Instead of having Griff who is slow ,Tab will add more value . Also suban playing ballas role is just awful , I rather Neale/weller play that role as he got goal sense and know where the ball is (not sure about weller) if the forward bring down the ball , this free up Blakely and spend more time as inside mid instead of HF. Let young bloke like tucker and Langdon play HF and HB . As for suban and d.pearce ask the selection committee what they can offer in this rebuild , as I still can't think of valid excuse for them. My personal excuse is they also don't add value to peel squad as peel having more local boy did not affect their result with a high scoring win.

 

[Dump Truck]

Do freo need two genuine ruck men Griff /Sandi?

Instead of having Griff who is slow ,Tab will add more value . Also suban playing ballas role is just awful , I rather Neale/weller play that role as he got goal sense and know where the ball is (not sure about weller) if the forward bring down the ball , this free up Blakely and spend more time as inside mid instead of HF. Let young bloke like tucker and Langdon play HF and HB . As for suban and d.pearce ask the selection committee what they can offer in this rebuild , as I still can't think of valid excuse for them. My personal excuse is they also don't add value to peel squad as peel having more local boy did not affect their result with a high scoring win.

Too be fair, Suban does actually have pretty good goal sense. He's not as electric as Ballas/Walters/Langdon/B.Hill but he goes alright. His problem is he just cannot impact a game that we aren't already dominating.

 

[Scham]

Do freo need two genuine ruck men Griff /Sandi?

Instead of having Griff who is slow ,Tab will add more value . Also suban playing ballas role is just awful , I rather Neale/weller play that role as he got goal sense and know where the ball is (not sure about weller) if the forward bring down the ball , this free up Blakely and spend more time as inside mid instead of HF. Let young bloke like tucker and Langdon play HF and HB . As for suban and d.pearce ask the selection committee what they can offer in this rebuild , as I still can't think of valid excuse for them. My personal excuse is they also don't add value to peel squad as peel having more local boy did not affect their result with a high scoring win.

Hughes in for Griff this week then Dawson plays as the back up ruck?

 

[meima]

Hughes in for Griff this week then Dawson plays as the back up ruck?

Griff not even in the bench make me wonder what the selection committee think . I like Hughes to play as he is the future. But not playing JLT did not favour him at all.

 

[Scham]

Too be fair, Suban does actually have pretty good goal sense. He's not as electric as Ballas/Walters/Langdon/B.Hill but he goes alright. His problem is he just cannot impact a game that we aren't already dominating.

How have you come up with that assessment? I've seen all of his games and I've never seen anything that points to that.

 

[Dump Truck]

How have you come up with that assessment? I've seen all of his games and I've never seen anything that points to that.

He's had a few games of 2 or 3 goals. Not saying he's a natural forward but he doesn't do terribly around the goals. Can also kick them from 50 on the run if he has space, just doesn't ever read the play well enough to put himself in that position. The problem is we have about 5-6 better players in that same spot.

 

[FreoMonocle]

Tabs is no CHF, more of a flanker, but he is our best CHF option with the cattle at our disposal by far.

I wouldn't have him near FF position as he will be outmarked in a pack (his packwork has improved though). But as CHF, while he doesn't take as many marks as he should - he doesn't get outmarked (same isn't true of the rest of the forward 6, even Walters get's periodically outmarked due to size), the ball goes to ground and is still an opportunity for us. His 2nd efforts for his height are pretty decent.

When he does have the ball, ie when he does mark or gathers a loose ball, he is a pretty decent kick, be it from the boundary or at distance. He also has his eyes lowered, he is not shy of making a quick pass to someone in the clear in a better position and is responsible for a fair few goal assists where he could have taken a less probable shot and improved his total goal tally (but at the expense of the team).

We are better structured with Tabs in. Sure, if we recruit better then play them, but for now, he is our best CHF. Kersten and McCarthry both lack the height, particularly with our habit of putting the ball on heads instead of chests. Even if Tabs get's little scoreboard, he'd enable both Kersten and McCarthy to do their thing, but as it stands, Kersten will just get monstered and Cam's ability to roam and be a goalsneak is hindered.

 

[Rion]

I think people are underestimating how crucial Apeness is to our structure. Takes some absolute clunkers, which we not only lack, but it actually makes all the blind bombs to a pack somewhat workable. His ability to bust a pack open and bring the ball to ground helps feed our smalls, and his physicality really contributes to our forward pressure.

It says something about the state of our list if a kid who has played just 5-10 games would be our first choice KPF.

Once he's up and got a bit of continuity, I really think he'll turn heads.

Also, if we're going to persist with 2 ruckman, and frankly we need to ad we simply have nothing else, then Griff must be on ball and Sandi the stay at home FF. Simply maximises the output we get from the two of them combined.

I agree that in theory Apeness is exactly what we need but you can hardly say he's put it together at AFL level (or even in sustained WAFL form). You surely can't think that a guy who played 5 games for 3 goals last year is going to turn around our forward line? Even at WAFL level he wasn't even going at 2 goals a game.

 

[kp junior]

He's had a few games of 2 or 3 goals. Not saying he's a natural forward but he doesn't do terribly around the goals. Can also kick them from 50 on the run if he has space, just doesn't ever read the play well enough to put himself in that position. The problem is we have about 5-6 better players in that same spot.

We have bugger all decent forwards, and we still have 5-6 better players in the same spot


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[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

I agree that in theory Apeness is exactly what we need but you can hardly say he's put it together at AFL level (or even in sustained WAFL form). You surely can't think that a guy who played 5 games for 3 goals last year is going to turn around our forward line? Even at WAFL level he wasn't even going at 2 goals a game.

You don't have to look at a stats page to see a players ability. The skills Apeness has aren't going to vanish. He's always going to be a big unit that has a natural physicality. It's not like he's relying on raw athleticism to cheat his way into cheapies, only to find out down the track that he can't do the stuff he could do at 21-22.

Injuries are the only thing that will stop him from being a long term AFL player.

 

[DudleyDocker]

You don't have to look at a stats page to see a players ability. The skills Apeness has aren't going to vanish. He's always going to be a big unit that has a natural physicality. It's not like he's relying on raw athleticism to cheat his way into cheapies, only to find out down the track that he can't do the stuff he could do at 21-22.

Injuries are the only thing that will stop him from being a long term AFL player.

Yep, Morabito too.

 

[wehavethepassion]

Statistically, Freo in 2016 had big problems scoring, most notably reflected by their lack of inside 50s and the poor conversion rate of scoring goals once inside 50 (1000 inside 50s / 227 Goals = 4.40 i50s per goal, lower is better, Adelaide was 3.51 for 2016). Now it's worth noting that the Western Bulldogs had a similarly poor conversion rate of scoring goals given their number of inside 50s (1423 inside 50s / 324 Goals = 4.39 i50s per goal), BUT, they had the highest inside 50 team differential numbers (ie. Total Team i50s For - Against) by some margin (168, 2nd ranked was GWS with 104, Freo with 19).
So, without an efficient forward line, the Bulldogs were still good enough to win the premiership due to their strong midfield producing good inside 50 numbers. That is, get the ball inside your forward 50 enough times and you will eventually score even if your forwards are not the best.

Therefore, Fyfe is too important as a midfielder to become a permanent forward. It would be a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. That is, Freo need Fyfe to keep the midfield engine room producing much needed inside 50s. With Sandilands and Fyfe, Freo will vastly improve those numbers, as was evident on the weekend against Geelong when Freo won the HitOuts, won the Clearances and the i50s. Unfortunately, once again, Freo's scoring goals per inside 50 was shocking (51 i50s / 10 Goals = 5.1 i50s per goal) ... in contrast Geelong's was 2.39 (43 i50s / 18 Goals) which is exceptional, courtesy of Freo's poor defense and turnovers.

It is only fair to point out that the teams with the typically best i50s per goal ratios are also those with the quality forwards. That is Adelaide, GWS & West Coast. Given Freo currently just don't have the forwards that those teams are blessed with, we need to at least ensure that our midfield is working as well as possible and for our defenders to not give up easy goals through turnovers.

It would help a lot if our 211cm giant could mark a few inside 50 each game.

 

[wehavethepassion]

Apeness seems to have a weakness in the PCl area. Missed 18months with PCL recon and now another PCL strain. I hope his body can hold up so he can get consistency of games at top level otherwise he get delisted by end of 2018 when his contract expires. It would a crying shame if he got picked up by someone else and his body does come good when his 24/5.

 

[Kunna17]

I think our BEST forward line is actually very dangerous, the problem is, it hinders other parts of the ground (i.e Midfielders like fyfe/bennell need to be forward and you could argue that at the moment Sandi is more dangerous than Griff purely because of his stature, although I do prefer Ape w/Sandi rucking)
HF - Bennell McCarthy B.Hill
FF - Walters Fyfe Sandi
Would scare the shit out of teams if we had structure. But again, robs other parts of the ground too much to go with. (Fyfe would at the least have to play CHF not FF)

 

[Frigate]

It still comes down to talent. We are getting glimpses that McCarthy can be a very good player - he has exceeded my expectations already, as he seems to really try and get involved in the contest which I did not think was there (no real basis for this, just the feeling from his apparent attitude) - so that is a massive tick. I am confident he will kick bags of 4+ goals regularly*.

Look at Tom Boyd - was everyone talking him up after the finals series last year. So far he has had 6 kicks, 3 marks and 2 goals. So what? Well if your team wins you can carry players that are finding their feet without many players getting scrutinised. If you are losing, suddenly he comes under the microscope.

I think our midfield has to lift across the board. Sandi cannot be responsible for opposition ruckmen winning the contest more than us. we should be a 50/50 at worst. It seems to me, that either Lachie Neele has a blinder or we are not getting the pill. S Hill is not getting the tag he used to get. The problem is, we are making the simplest of mistakes in hitting targets by hand and foot, and when you stream forward and a turnover occurs....

It becomes a paradox, the good players have to stay around the contest or swing defensively expecting a turnover and prevent a score against, we do not turnover the footy and there is no-one to kick to, so we go back... Or the good players stream forward hoping the turnover will not happen - then it does, and they run into an open goal.

Handballs need to hit targets. Kicks need to be low and flat, eliminating time of travel in the air. I am starting to doubt this skill in our team. The old hospital pass seems to be a favourite of ours last year and in round 1.

 

[PurpleEyes]

It would help a lot if our 211cm giant could mark a few inside 50 each game.

Sandilands in recent years averages more marks inside 50 and contested marks than Todd Goldstein, Nic Natanui or Mumford. Max Gawn is just slightly ahead of Sandilands. Max Gawn is a ripper and deserves the accolades he is currently getting ... but I fail to see why Sandilands does not get the same respect ... especially from some Freo fans.

 

[Righteo]

Injuries are the only thing that will stop him from being a long term AFL player.

Yes, and everything we've seen since we drafted him suggests this will be the case. I don't know why you're underselling how significant the injury factor is. Almost everyone here has put him in their desired fwd 6 but at the same time, most of us realise how unlikely he is to make it. It's horrible to say but he's looking every chance of ending up the next Scotty Gumbleton, Andrew Browne or Anthony Morabito. I hope like hell he makes it but the odds are stacked against him.

 

[PurpleEyes]

... Sandi cannot be responsible for opposition ruckmen winning the contest more than us....

The stats do not support most of the criticisms I see here regarding Sandilands.

Again, when Sandilands is fit and playing, Freo have an extraordinary high correlation of winning the HitOuts and Clearances.
Cripes, in Sandilands' last 12 games, he has had 40 or more HitOuts in 7 of those games. In every one of those 7 games, Freo have won the clearances count by a double digit margin (average of 13).
And I am not cherry picking, because in 4 of those 12 games, Sandilands was injured (2016 Rnd 3) or returning from that long term injury and still finding fitness. The other game was his 12th last game (2015 Rnd 19) where he had 38 HitOuts and we won the clearances by 8 and if I go back to his 13th last game, he had 38 HitOuts and we won the Clearances by 20.

 

[Freomaniac]

I agree that in theory Apeness is exactly what we need but you can hardly say he's put it together at AFL level (or even in sustained WAFL form). You surely can't think that a guy who played 5 games for 3 goals last year is going to turn around our forward line? Even at WAFL level he wasn't even going at 2 goals a game.

Still think ifhe ever plays 20 games for us in a season, he could kick 25-30 goals. That might not be much. But you need to think, If he is in the forward line if you had to double team a player, Would double team a 200cm Apeness or a 192cm Cam McCarthy?

 

[ydraw]

There's so much blah blah Tabs will make it, blah blah blah tabs will never make it in these threads. Why? Well in my opinion it's because he really hasn't been given a decent chance for us to know for sure either way. From memory he's only had one or two games minus Pav and he did well in at least one. How could any tall forward bar Pav perform well in our forward line the past couple of years. The ball either went straight to pav regardless of the two or three guys hanging off him, or it came in after scraping the ozone layer. Tabs got a stack of contested marks up the wings. The boy has shown he can run, lead and mark.

I know it's a novel idea but how about give Tabs (for Griffen) a few games straight and actually see how he goes minus Pav, and with the Hills and Langdon delivering into the forward line. Then we can say, yep he sux, let him go, or hey, this guy can actually lead and mark, kick fairly straight at goal, and run his opponent off their feet and give McCarthy a smaller, weaker defender - keep him in.

Sacrilege. Every good coach knows that when we get done by 10 goals it's always Tabs' fault. Which is why we only ever drop the key forward in games like that.

 

[ydraw]

I think people are underestimating how crucial Apeness is to our structure.

Or maybe you're vastly overestimating?

Apart from taking a few nice clunks Apeness has yet to do a single thing at AFL level. He averages less than 6 disposals and just over 1 hit out per game.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Or maybe you're vastly overestimating?

Apart from taking a few nice clunks Apeness has yet to do a single thing at AFL level. He averages less than 6 disposals and just over 1 hit out per game.

And again, if you are to base team selection on stats, floggos like deBoer, Mzungu et al would still be on our list.

Perhaps you need to re-think your stance that numbers on a piece of paper actually have anything to do with someone's ability to play the game.

 

[meima]

Perhaps you need to re-think your stance that numbers on a piece of paper actually have anything to do with someone's ability to play the game.

Yes , more of this.