Bluemour Discussion Thread III

[G-TRAIN07]

Please don't...

Sorry man. I just think list managers and recruiters should back their judgment over a coach who should also have his say on what he wants but the final call should always be the recruiters I mean they've done all the work scouting these kids

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Sorry man. I just think list managers and recruiters should back their judgment over a coach who should also have his say on what he wants but the final call should always be the recruiters I mean they've done all the work scouting these kids

Agreed. That particular one just pains me, Talia is as good a KPD as there is in the comp.

And, dare I say it, Carlton fan growing up? Or am I mixing him up with someone else?

 

[Jabba73]

Agreed. That particular one just pains me, Talia is as good a KPD as there is in the comp.

And, dare I say it, Carlton fan growing up? Or am I mixing him up with someone else?

Can't run through the midfield, no good to us

 

[Bluey24]

If O'Rourke knows about this deal ... between GWS / Hawks to eventually land him at the Blues, then it would in part explain his form........

He's also had injuries..........

 

[Jabba73]

If O'Rourke knows about this deal ... between GWS / Hawks to eventually land him at the Blues, then it would in part explain his form........

He's also had injuries..........

Or he just might be no good. Hard to tell if he ain't on the park.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Can't run through the midfield, no good to us

Lucas could, let's get him back...

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

Staahhppp pls

 

[HBF]

Incoherent rumour's incoherent. O'Rourke is a 23 year old who has now failed to cement a spot at two separate clubs. Pass.

Do not want him.
Clearly not up to AFL standard.

 

[My name geoff]

SOS clearly is a fan of the money ball theory. Buying former early draft picks at bargain prices is part of his strategy.

Kerridge, Sumner, lamb, Pickett, Marchbank, Plowman, Palmer, Smedts, Gorringe and if we believe this rumour..O'Rourke.

All former first round picks bought for a grand total of two overvalued players, and a late draft pick.

Two of those players are already guns worthy of a first round pick which has made the strategy a relative win. All that needs to happen now is for one or two of the other pick ups to reach their potential and it's the jackpot.

Of the 8 former first round draft picks who haven't made it yet, history suggests that in this decade over 60% of first round picks go on to have careers. You would expect at least one of Sumner, Pickett, O'Rourke or Gorringe as former top ten picks to come on and have a career in the right environment.

That would essentially make the net gain 2 first round draft picks. Magic.

And if say Sumner, Pickett and Smedts all come good, which is plausible.. that's moneyball 101.

The more former first round draft picks you throw in the mix, the greater the probability of striking gold.

 

[Broadside]

SOS clearly is a fan of the money ball theory. Buying former early draft picks at bargain prices is part of his strategy.

Kerridge, Sumner, lamb, Pickett, Marchbank, Plowman, Palmer, Smedts, Gorringe and if we believe this rumour..O'Rourke.

All former first round picks bought for a grand total of two overvalued players, and a late draft pick.

Two of those players are already guns worthy of a first round pick which has made the strategy a relative win. All that needs to happen now is for one or two of the other pick ups to reach their potential and it's the jackpot.

Of the 8 former first round draft picks who haven't made it yet, history suggests that in this decade over 60% of first round picks go on to have careers. You would expect at least one of Sumner, Pickett, O'Rourke or Gorringe as former top ten picks to come on and have a career in the right environment.

That would essentially make the net gain 3 first round draft picks for two overvalued players. Magic.

And if say Sumner, Pickett and Smedts come good, which is plausible.. that's moneyball 101.

The more former first round draft picks you throw in the mix, the greater the probability of striking gold.

yes but O'Rourke has shown very little at 2 clubs - as a Hawthorn mate describes him, very vanilla. As a high pick he is a bust, if he can't thrive in Hawthorn's environment surrounded by high achievers I wouldn't back him in at Carlton. Use a Moneyball strategy by all means but not when there is ample evidence that a player won't become a very very good player. I think Pickett will become excellent and have high hopes for Sumner, it has been injury that has held these players back.

 

[My name geoff]

yes but O'Rourke has shown very little at 2 clubs - as a Hawthorn mate describes him, very vanilla. As a high pick he is a bust, if he can't thrive in Hawthorn's environment surrounded by high achievers I wouldn't back him in at Carlton. Use a Moneyball strategy by all means but not when there is ample evidence that a player won't become a very very good player. I think Pickett will become excellent and have high hopes for Sumner, it has been injury that has held these players back.

I'm not saying O'Rourke will be a player but if he costs nothing, he is essentially a low risk high reward prospect.

Adding quality in the 23 to 27 age bracket is a must for our list, and if you don't want to pay premiums, a player like O'Rourke could be just the ticket

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

SOS clearly is a fan of the money ball theory. Buying former early draft picks at bargain prices is part of his strategy.

Kerridge, Sumner, lamb, Pickett, Marchbank, Plowman, Palmer, Smedts, Gorringe and if we believe this rumour..O'Rourke.

All former first round picks bought for a grand total of two overvalued players, and a late draft pick.

Two of those players are already guns worthy of a first round pick which has made the strategy a relative win. All that needs to happen now is for one or two of the other pick ups to reach their potential and it's the jackpot.

Of the 8 former first round draft picks who haven't made it yet, history suggests that in this decade over 60% of first round picks go on to have careers. You would expect at least one of Sumner, Pickett, O'Rourke or Gorringe as former top ten picks to come on and have a career in the right environment.

That would essentially make the net gain 2 first round draft picks. Magic.

And if say Sumner, Pickett and Smedts all come good, which is plausible.. that's moneyball 101.

The more former first round draft picks you throw in the mix, the greater the probability of striking gold.

It would be interesting to know - irrespective of where a club picks them up in the draft - the percentage of players who go on to 150+ games who play less than 10 games in their first 3-4 years 'in the system'.

I know it's still early but the crop we got this year outside the first round looks simply outstanding - Fisher, Macreadie and Williamson (and potentially Polson).

Not sure about a strategy of banking former first rounders just because they were picked up in the first round.

Might be over-simplifying it - but I just think our selection/approach now seems to be more broadly about attitude+leadership+talent rather than just talent (which netted us a smorgasbord of pea-hearted dickheads for the 10 years preceding SOS).

 

[slashin_velvet]

I'd be ok if we took O'Rourke as a DFA - a free pickup for little salary is fine, and couldnt offer much less than some of the players we will look to delist and/or a pick in the 100's.

 

[Juddrockz]

Do not want him.
Clearly not up to AFL standard.

Plus dodgey hammys.

 

[Azul]

I'd be ok if we took O'Rourke as a DFA - a free pickup for little salary is fine, and couldnt offer much less than some of the players we will look to delist and/or a pick in the 100's.

Sure, if he can remain injury free there's more chance of him reaching 50 games than a Rhys Palmer.

It's just most of us can't get our heads around him being part of a conspiracy involving the second rounder we traded.

 

[My name geoff]

It would be interesting to know - irrespective of where a club picks them up in the draft - the percentage of players who go on to 150+ games who play less than 10 games in their first 3-4 years 'in the system'.

I know it's still early but the crop we got this year outside the first round looks simply outstanding - Fisher, Macreadie and Williamson (and potentially Polson).

Not sure about a strategy of banking former first rounders just because they were picked up in the first round.

Might be over-simplifying it - but I just think our selection/approach now seems to be more broadly about attitude+leadership+talent rather than just talent (which netted us a smorgasbord of pea-hearted dickheads for the 10 years preceding SOS).

I know nothing about O'Rourke, but the argument would be if you are picking up a player for nothing as a DFA, a poorly performed former first round pick may have a higher ceiling with more tools (Gorringe) than a well performed middle of the road type (Wright)

Wright will probably have a better career, but will always remain a limited player so presents a low risk, medium reward type pick up.

Gorringe presents an equal risk, but if the club can get him to his potential, then the payoff could be huge.

 

[No1Suspect]

I'd be ok if we took O'Rourke as a DFA - a free pickup for little salary is fine, and couldnt offer much less than some of the players we will look to delist and/or a pick in the 100's.

If he stays fit then i cant see the harm, but if thete was a player like matty wright available id expect we take the latter first. JOR would certainly help keep a strong 2s side and may keep list spots in the ones honest at least

 

[slashin_velvet]

I know nothing about O'Rourke, but the argument would be if you are picking up a player for nothing as a DFA, a poorly performed former first round pick may have a higher ceiling with more tools (Gorringe) than a well performed middle of the road type (Wright)

Wright will probably have a better career, but will always remain a limited player so presents a low risk, medium reward type pick up.

Gorringe presents an equal risk, but if the club can get him to his potential, then the payoff could be huge.

Precisely, and if the only cost is a list spot - then its still relatively low risk/high reward in terms of cost.

 

[No1Suspect]

SOS clearly is a fan of the money ball theory. Buying former early draft picks at bargain prices is part of his strategy.

Kerridge, Sumner, lamb, Pickett, Marchbank, Plowman, Palmer, Smedts, Gorringe and if we believe this rumour..O'Rourke.

All former first round picks bought for a grand total of two overvalued players, and a late draft pick.

Two of those players are already guns worthy of a first round pick which has made the strategy a relative win. All that needs to happen now is for one or two of the other pick ups to reach their potential and it's the jackpot.

Of the 8 former first round draft picks who haven't made it yet, history suggests that in this decade over 60% of first round picks go on to have careers. You would expect at least one of Sumner, Pickett, O'Rourke or Gorringe as former top ten picks to come on and have a career in the right environment.

That would essentially make the net gain 2 first round draft picks. Magic.

And if say Sumner, Pickett and Smedts all come good, which is plausible.. that's moneyball 101.

The more former first round draft picks you throw in the mix, the greater the probability of striking gold.

The good thing about SOSs money ball approach is like you said 2 have become out n out guns Plowman Marchbank.

The rest that make up the numbers are ok and arent a complete write off. Hopefully if it happens again this year we strike another peice of gold for not much. (These little wins also balance out our last few years of putrid picks to a degree)
But whats good is with this approach he is keeping our top picks and adding really quality to the list, once it balances itself out itll be pretty special.

Few more years of heartache yet though!

 

[Jimmae]

SOS clearly is a fan of the money ball theory. Buying former early draft picks at bargain prices is part of his strategy.

Kerridge, Sumner, lamb, Pickett, Marchbank, Plowman, Palmer, Smedts, Gorringe and if we believe this rumour..O'Rourke.

All former first round picks bought for a grand total of two overvalued players, and a late draft pick.

Two of those players are already guns worthy of a first round pick which has made the strategy a relative win. All that needs to happen now is for one or two of the other pick ups to reach their potential and it's the jackpot.

Of the 8 former first round draft picks who haven't made it yet, history suggests that in this decade over 60% of first round picks go on to have careers. You would expect at least one of Sumner, Pickett, O'Rourke or Gorringe as former top ten picks to come on and have a career in the right environment.

That would essentially make the net gain 2 first round draft picks. Magic.

And if say Sumner, Pickett and Smedts all come good, which is plausible.. that's moneyball 101.

The more former first round draft picks you throw in the mix, the greater the probability of striking gold.

The net value was more like this:

Tuohy, Menzel and pick 20. It's not nothing, and if all we get out of it is Plowman and Marchbank, we're breaking even. Fingers crossed we start to get more out of Sumner and Pickett later this year.

You're also treating their latent talent as a given, which is a huge mistake to make in reality. Sometimes people make bad decisions based on limited or bad info.

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

I know nothing about O'Rourke, but the argument would be if you are picking up a player for nothing as a DFA, a poorly performed former first round pick may have a higher ceiling with more tools (Gorringe) than a well performed middle of the road type (Wright)

Wright will probably have a better career, but will always remain a limited player so presents a low risk, medium reward type pick up.

Gorringe presents an equal risk, but if the club can get him to his potential, then the payoff could be huge.

I get what you are saying re risk vs reward - but my point is that if you are playing moneyball as you suggested in your original post - for every year that a player is in the system, where he was drafted gets less and less relevant.

Guys who don't show much in their first 4 years rarely turn into stars. There will always be outliers - and I really hope Gorringe, Sumner and Jaksch fall into this basket.

I know SFA about O'Rourke - he might be a good get - my point is that where he originally got drafted shouldn't be the reason for us picking him up.

 

[My name geoff]

The net value was more like this:

Tuohy, Menzel and pick 20. It's not nothing, and if all we get out of it is Plowman and Marchbank, we're breaking even. Fingers crossed we start to get more out of Sumner and Pickett later this year.

You're also treating their latent talent as a given, which is a huge mistake to make in reality. Sometimes people make bad decisions based on limited or bad info.

Which pick 20?

 

[My name geoff]

I get what you are saying re risk vs reward - but my point is that if you are playing moneyball as you suggested in your original post - for every year that a player is in the system, where he was drafted gets less and less relevant.

Guys who don't show much in their first 4 years rarely turn into stars. There will always be outliers - and I really hope Gorringe, Sumner and Jaksch fall into this basket.

I know SFA about O'Rourke - he might be a good get - my point is that where he originally got drafted shouldn't be the reason for us picking him up.

Jaksch and Gorringe KPP drafted to GWS/GC which no doubt plays a factor in them not being able to show much in their first few years. Injuries have also played a part particularly with Sumner

 

[El Topo]

Which pick 20?

We traded Tuohy and 2017 2nd (20ish) for Smedts and 2017 1st. We didn't get Marchbank and Pickett for Tuohy, we got them for Tuohy and this year's second rounder. It's a heavy price to pay, especially if Pickett doesn't make it.

 

[Azul]

Which pick 20?

We traded this year's 2nd rounder which, subject to our ladder finish, could be pick 20.