Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 4

[LeoMessi]

http://bfy.tw/CaXV

click on the first hit. Do this next time.

Cheers . More money for me and less money for Murdoch. It's win-win.

 

[Steve Dore]

Yep Burton strikes me as one shining light in a pretty dim batch of future talent for the Hawks, would be good to get one back on them for pinching off us whilst we were having a rough patch adding to our current crop of young stars in the process.

If I recall didn't he support Port growing up?

Given his father played for North Adelaide and works (worked ??) for the Crows I would doubt it.

 

[Seanybruz]

Given his father played for North Adelaide and works (worked ??) for the Crows I would doubt it.

Just googled and he definitely was a Port supporter growing up

Get to know Ryan Burton

Who did you support growing up?

Port Adelaide.

Who was your favourite AFL player growing up?

Nat Fyfe’s my favourite player, and Robbie Gray’s my favourite Port Adelaide player

 

[Grave Danger]

Had a quick squiz and it came to my attention that not only are they worried about losing Lever and McGovern but Cameron too. lol.

I saw this rather bizarre piece the other day - was the first I'd heard of it, so it's probably just this 'Rover' person creating his own rumours for clickbait...


Cameron set for shock interstate move?


The rumour mill has been turning with the suggestion Charlie Cameron is seeking a trade ‘home’ to Queensland, preferably to Brisbane but with an open mind on Gold Coast.

But I can pretty much put a big cross through this one straight away.

Cameron was born and spent most of his childhood in the Sunshine State but moved to Western Australia with his family at 17.

I know he was reluctant to leave WA when he got drafted but he’s settled in Adelaide, is so close to Eddie Betts it’s not funny and won’t be going anywhere this year.

Cameron is contracted till the end of next year and the Crows aren’t about to let him go with the way his form has shot onto an upward trajectory.

http://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/...rn-australia-perth/1gxvo0fkjvr4w1ei7f1c1cj53e

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

What's the minimum if there is one for intentional high impact?
And wouldn't it make more sense for the AFL to have a minimum recommended penalty rather then leaving it up to whoever is "prosecuting" to decide?

That's a huge variance for intentional high impact. From 2 weeks(now over ruled to 4 weeks because of the backlash from fans), to 6-7 weeks.

1. there is none, that's why it goes straight to the tribunal

2. No not a final outcome, but you should have a similar starting point, but someone like Houli should get a game discount for 11 years good record and then there are guilty pleas vs contesting the charge and just like a real court, guilty pleas can reduce your sentence.

Houli ended up with 4 weeks which is what Silvagni ended up with in 2015 both for an Intentional + High Impact to the head so the "system" produced a similar result.

 

[Steve Dore]

Just googled and he definitely was a Port supporter growing up

Get to know Ryan Burton

Who did you support growing up?

Port Adelaide.

Who was your favourite AFL player growing up?

Nat Fyfe’s my favourite player, and Robbie Gray’s my favourite Port Adelaide player

Well there you go, the kid obviously has a good head on his shoulders.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The Arc mattsea has written his latest article for ESPN about about home ground advantage. His short answer is yes there is one, but goes on to question if its driven by how good the team is. There are lots of graphs in there but I will concentrate on Geelong, who are ****en hard to beat at Kardinia park

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19752486/footy-forensics-does-home-ground-advantage-exis

.... Apart from causing tippers to wonder why they bother, the weekend's results might also cause footy fans to question whether home-ground advantage is still a thing. The short answer: yes, yes it is. Home-ground advantage is still very much a thing. So far this year, 58.1 percent of games have been won by the home team. which is a touch above the average for the decade so far (56.7 percent) and about in line with the average for the 2000s. Overall, home-ground advantage in the AFL and VFL has been remarkably stable over time, with the home team winning somewhere around 56-60 percent of the time. This season is smack band in the middle of the historical range.

Don't be fooled by Geelong's near-miss against the Dockers.
Simonds Stadium remains the most formidable challenge for a travelling team. Since 2014, the Cats have won a stunning 23 of 27 games at the Cattery, an 85.2 percent winning chance. That's better than any other side has managed when playing as the home team at their main home ground. Joint second is the Hawks and Eagles who have both managed 75 percent at the MCG and Subiaco, respectively.

But of course, the fact that Geelong has won a lot of games at Simonds Stadium over the past few years doesn't necessarily tell us that they have a huge home-ground advantage. After all,the Cats have been a very good team in recent years, winning a lot of games away from Geelong. To get a rough measure of teams' home-ground advantage, we can look at the difference between the percentage of games they win when playing as the home team at their main home ground, and the percentage of games then win when playing away. Geelong, for example, has won 56.6 percent of their away games since 2014 - that's an impressive record, but it's still a whopping 28.6 percentage points lower than their winning percentage at home. Still, the Cats are pipped for the title of the biggest home-away differential by the Gold Coast Suns. The Suns have nearly broken even at Carrara, winning 47.4 percent of their home games there, far better than their record of just 17.9% in away games.........

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19752486/footy-forensics-does-home-ground-advantage-exis

I have been watching Geelong's stats at Kardinia Park for a while and last night finished off some stuff I have been working on over that time. The Cats since 1989 when Blight got down to Sleepy Hollow have had a massive home ground advantage whether they play 7,8,9,10 or 11 games a season there prior to Docklands being built and moving 3 home games to Melbourne. All stats from http://afltables.com/afl/teams/geelong/allgames_vn.html#16



You will note that when Geelong do poorly at Kardinia they miss the finals since 1989. 1993 is an outlier because only 20 games were played that season so an extra game there could have seen a loss and been consistent with at least 3 losses at Kardinia Park means they miss finals.

Since Chris Scott became coach of Geelong they have only lost 6 games, 2 to Freo 44 pts and inc 2013 QF by 15, 2 to Sydney by 38 and 13 and 1 each to Melbourne by 24 and North by 16. So its bloody hard to win by any margin there let alone beat them up. Freo have also lost 2 of their 5 games there by 2 points, and one by 41 pts to have the best record there in 2011-17 period. Sydney have won 2 but their other three loses have been 5 and 7 goals. Given the ground dimensions are similar to Subiaco its no surprise Freo do so well there relative to every other team who also plays there ( ie no Collingwood, Carlton, Hawthorn and Essendon games and only 1 against Richmond).

There have been 6 single digit wins by Geelong including the 2 pt win over us in Rd 10 - that's why i'm still pissed off about it, as its so hard to win there and Port lost by 1 pt in 2003 when they stuffed up the last 5 minutes. GWS lost by 10 points there last year and Richmond have only played there once in the Scott era in 2012 and lost by 10 pts as well.

Geelong have been in the finals 19 of the 28.5 seasons since 1989. Ok the finals have gone from 5 to 6 to 8 in that time has made it easier to make finals but they have won 3 flags and made another 5 GF's to have that 75.5% W-L record at home.

I looked at the 2 other long run successful periods at Geelong and the home ground record is similar. 1925-1940 at their old oval Corio Oval. 1940 was the last year they played there. They won 3 flags 1925, 1932 and 1937 and made a further GF in 1930. They made the final 4, 10 out of 16 seasons.

http://afltables.com/afl/teams/geelong/allgames_vn.html#2
Start of 1925 129W 4D 94L
End of 1940. 241W 6D 124L
................... 112W 2D 30L = 77.8%

Between 1950 and 1969 Geelong in those 20 seasons won 3 flags 1951-52 and 1963 and made the GF in 1950 and 1967. they made the final 4, in 15 seasons, but collected wooden spoons in 1957 and 1958 and only won 5 games in 1959 to finish 10th.

http://afltables.com/afl/teams/geelong/allgames_vn.html#16
Start of 1950 29W 0D 37L
End of 1969. 163W 2D 83L
.................. 134W 2D 46L = 73.6%

So the conclusion probably is if you are a bloody good side, you win a shit load at home, especially the close ones and take your home ground W-L record from that 60-65% range and get it over 75%. It doesn't sound like much to go from 3 wins out of every 5 home games played to 3 wins out of 4, but its bloody hard work to do it year in year out.

That's been Port's problem the last few years at AO. We were 9-3 in 2014 losing the away showdown then won the final against Richmond for a 10-3, 2014 record at home. In 2015 we went 7-5 at home won the away showdown but lost the Phil Walsh home showdown by 3 pts. In 2016 we went 4-8 and lost both showdowns. This year we are 4-2 but lost the home showdown.

That's the real conclusion. If you want to make finals, having a dominate record at home, ie at least 2 out of 3 games are wins, you are likely to make finals.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Y no thanks to the rock?

Polec probably gave a character reference....

 

[skanker08]

Suban? Gross.

Duryea is OK but we already struggle to fit our half backs in the side.



Damning. If there's a single substantial difference between those two incidents (other than one of the players playing for the 2017 feel good story) I can't spot it. But the AFL deliberately exclude precedent as a factor in the tribunal precisely so they can just make shit up as they go along like this.

What makes it worse is it looks like Zeiball got his hands to the Ball - Viney had no chance of taking possession.

 

[OneGreatClub]

lel Crows caller on AA phones in and says he has emailed club and told them he is withdrawing his membership as the club has not played Scot Thompson.. Now that's a melt!

 

[DaTBird187]

lel Crows caller on AA phones in and says he has emailed club and told them he is withdrawing his membership as the club has not played Scot Thompson.. Now that's a melt!

Octogenarians stick together.

 

[Skindy]

I know I have no rumour mill credit but from knowing one of Ryan Burton's close mates I have heard that he was keen to come back to Port Adelaide last year and wasn't super happy at Hawthorn. Although now that he is the golden child I am sure he will be taken well care of.

Also when he did his pre-draft trainings with the club he said port were far more professional than the crows although he may be a tad biased as a supporter

 

[tribey]

I know I have no rumour mill credit but from knowing one of Ryan Burton's close mates I have heard that he was keen to come back to Port Adelaide last year and wasn't super happy at Hawthorn. Although now that he is the golden child I am sure he will be taken well care of.

Also when he did his pre-draft trainings with the club he said port were far more professional than the crows although he may be a tad biased as a supporter

He is (was?) a Port supporter? This tickles me.

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

We should most certainly try and lure Ryan Burton back to SA.

Hawthorn's future isn't looking exactly too flash either.

 

[tribey]

Vic Metro giving SA an old-fashioned reaming #grassroots #youthdevelopment #bloodyport

 

[tribey]

Vic Metro giving SA an old-fashioned reaming #grassroots #youthdevelopment #bloodyport

Hopefully Centrals can produce a few more Gowanses, Goodrems and Schells.

 

[Grave Danger]

Vic Metro giving SA an old-fashioned reaming #grassroots #youthdevelopment #bloodyport

**** - WA needed SA to win by a fair margin to burgle the title.

 

[captain ebert]

Lol Dees....

 

[Dylan8]

Lol Dees....

That is not Dees

 

[StuMan]

There's almost as many people at Etihad for the Vic Metro/SA game as there was for WB/Norf last week.

 

[tribey]

Lol Dees....

What on earth.

 

[PatientMental]

Some vic metro bloke has 22 and 5 goals this game, he is literally outscoring SA from the midfield.

 

[Grave Danger]

Some vic metro bloke has 22 and 5 goals this game, he is literally outscoring SA from the midfield.

The next Dusty apparently. SPP forgotten already - if only had come from Victoria...

 

[PatientMental]

The next Dusty apparently. SPP forgotten already - if only had come from Victoria...

Different player, this one is the blonde bloke in the man bun, not the bloke with the stupid haircut.

 

[Schulzenfest]

this one is the blonde bloke in the man bun, not the bloke with the stupid haircut.

This sentence doesn't make any sense.