Bluemour Discussion Thread IV

[Osc1]

Say what? Our list is CRYING OUT for a mid like Kelly!

I agree. The thing is some supporters see out list improvement as linear while others see it as exponential.

 

[Malifice]

Kelly is definitely worth 2 x 1st rounders and I still believe that is what it will take.

Pick 3 (2,234 points) alone is worth the same value as picks 7 and 31 (2,250).

GWS (based on recent form) will value the points from 2nd rounders and early 3rds (to use on academy selections) and they'll also value the chance to pick a player in the top 3 (they agressively traded down the order last year to snare Taranto).

Picks [3 and 20] or [picks 3 and 38 + 39] (assuming Casboult leaves as a F/A and gets Band 3 or 4) will definately do it.

More importantly, I still believe our list is not ready for the likes of a Kelly

He's a 22 year old Elite midfielder.

Hes exactly what our list needs. That and a 22 year old elite KPF.

 

[Azul]

Say what? Our list is CRYING OUT for a mid like Kelly!

It's crying out for about 5 mids, to be honest.

 

[ParapMarkets]

If Kelly comes. Gibbs leaves.

It frees up 500k+ extra money to get Kelly across the line, AND it gets us back into the 1st round (plus change).

We should be looking to snare one of the 1sts Adelaide get for (Lever or McGovern) at pick 10-12 plus (say) Adelaides future second at pick 36 (which gives us points to help us get Ben SOS over the line next year).

Out: Gibbs, pick 3, pick 38.
In: Kelly, pick 12, future 2nd.

Thats effectively a 9 spot 1st round pick downgrade (3 to 12) to swap Gibbs (29 next year) for Kelly (23 next year). Its 1000 draft 'points' or around pick 17 to get in a younger (and better) Gibbs.

You do that every day of the week.

I think you are being very optimistic about the price of Kelly, your proposed deal won't get the job done. We could possibly get away with pick 3 + 21 (Casboult free agency pick, if he leaves and we get tier 3 compo)

 

[Bronze]

Our pick inside the top 5 should be strictly off limits.
Kelly is worth whatever the Crows give us for Gibbs, nothing more.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Thing is, when you have 2 superstar top 10 mids in the league in Cripps and Kelly, all of a sudden your B-Grade mids look and perform like A-Graders, and likewise C-Grade mids appear B-Grade.

Cuningham and Fisher suddenly don't have to carry the load and get exposed.

Finding the supporting cast is significantly easier.

If we don't overpay, this is a huge coup.

 

[El Topo]

Would be very smart of GWS.

Trade Kelly for 2 first round picks and replace him with Dusty for free???

Brilliant if they can pull this off!!!

And if Richmond match, that places pressure on GWS to cough up the currency, which they can only obtain by trading Kelly. We were in the same position last year and had to take a hit on the Tuohy deal to break the deadlock... and there's no way whatever Geelong offer for Hopper/Smith will satisfy Richmond.

 

[Zlatan]

Our pick inside the top 5 should be strictly off limits.
Kelly is worth whatever the Crows give us for Gibbs, nothing more.

Kelly is worth pick 14-18 but not pick 3?

Elite midfielder. I'd give them pick 1 in this specific draft just for Kelly.

 

[Malifice]

For those harping on about what the Pies paid for Treloar it was [pick 7] + [pick 65] + [a future first] for [Treloar and 28].

That future 1st was pick 7 (Im sure the Pies expected it to be a much higher pick of around pick 12-16)

Total value of [7 + 7 + 65] - [28] = around 2,700 points. Pretty much equal in value to pick 3 and 38.

 

[Arr0w]

Say what? Our list is CRYING OUT for a mid like Kelly!

Do you think we could add Smith & Hopper with the same value?

Pick 3 (2,234 points) alone is worth the same value as picks 7 and 31 (2,250).

GWS (based on recent form) will value the points from 2nd rounders and early 3rds (to use on academy selections) and they'll also value the chance to pick a player in the top 3 (they agressively traded down the order last year to snare Taranto).

Picks [3 and 20] or [picks 3 and 38 + 39] (assuming Casboult leaves as a F/A and gets Band 3 or 4) will definately do it.

He's a 22 year old Elite midfielder.

Hes exactly what our list needs. That and a 22 year old elite KPF.

I am confident that they would prefer pick 6 + 10 rather than 3 + 20, especially not having academy talent of a first round nature. They would then take non academy players in the 1st round and still have 2 picks in the 2nd round and beyond for their academy players.

Yes he is what our list needs and as you mentioned an elite KPF, which for me is way more important at the moment

You have 3 sides in the finals that don't have a midfielder anywhere close to the likes of a Kelly, Crows, Demons, Saints, the later 2 have rebuilt patiently. But what they do have is a solid core of players, and better than average forwards.

Of course, the arousal of obtaining someone like Kelly is through the roof, but many more holes to fill, than just one elite midfielder

 

[G-TRAIN07]

He's a ******* superstar who can dominate on the ouside and win his own footy.

If Kelly was in that one on one v jetta instead of kade, I know who I'd be backing

 

[HARKER]

For those harping on about what the Pies paid for Treloar it was [pick 7] + [pick 65] + [a future first] for [Treloar and 28].

That future 1st was pick 7 (Im sure the Pies expected it to be a much higher pick of around pick 12-16)

Total value of [7 + 7 + 65] - [28] = around 2,700 points. Pretty much equal in value to pick 3 and 38.

You can't simply use points to make sense of value.

Two high first rounders in most cases can be and should be, more valuable than a pick #3 and an early third rounder.
Of course that can change if you know that the pick #3 would get you superstar (see Judd 2001)

Generally speaking, I'd say that 2 pick #7 are of more value than that #3 and a third rounder.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Treloar

vs.

Weideman/McKay/Curnow + Logue/Brodie/Florent

Treloar + Sier/Adams/Hibberd

 

[Azul]

Although in fairness, Harks, in the case of GWS they do churn through 'elite' academy players every single darn year so a points arrangement may suit.

 

[passmark]

It's crying out for about 5 mids, to be honest.

And that's the key .

If I was him I'd only go to a club that had a very strong midfield right now or just after I sign.

Who wants to get the Rory Sloane treatment.

 

[HARKER]

Although in fairness, Harks, in the case of GWS they do churn through 'elite' academy players every single darn year so a points arrangement may suit.

GWS are an outlier for any general conversations re. trading.
That will change eventually, but maybe not for the next couple of years at least

 

[Malifice]

I am confident that they would prefer pick 6 + 10 rather than 3 + 20, especially not having academy talent of a first round nature.

Irrelevant mate. We dont have pick 6 and 10.

We'll have (most likely if Gibbs and Cas leave): Picks 3, 12, 20, 38, 56, 74 or thereabouts.

They can have 3 + 20 for Kelly. That values him at 3200 points (500 points more than Treloar, and more value than pick 1 alone).

 

[Blue__Balls]

If Kelly was in that one on one v jetta instead of kade, I know who I'd be backing

Still Jetta. Bread and butter.

 

[Malifice]

You can't simply use points to make sense of value.

Two high first rounders in most cases can be and should be, more valuable than a pick #3 and an early third rounder.
Of course that can change if you know that the pick #3 would get you superstar (see Judd 2001)

GWS play by different rules.

Early picks are gold because they allow access to the best talent before academy bids. Later picks (in the 2nd and third round) are gold because they provide the best points to pay for academy selections.

The expansion clubs have shown a willingness in recent years to trade down the order agressively while also stockpiling picks in the 20's and 30's (to pay for academy blokes).

 

[Blue__Balls]

Treloar + Sier/Adams/Hibberd

I'm still going Curnow + Brodie

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Irrelevant mate. We dont have pick 6 and 10.

We'll have (most likely if Gibbs and Cas leave): Picks 3, 12, 20, 38, 56, 74 or thereabouts.

They can have 3 + 20 for Kelly. That values him at 3200 points (500 points more than Treloar, and more value than pick 1 alone).

Yeh that makes no sense. GWS would just say ok give us 3 and 12 and we will give you some late picks back so you actually pay us less points. They don't need points this year they will want the best picks they can get

 

[HARKER]

GWS play by different rules.

Early picks are gold because they allow access to the best talent before academy bids. Later picks (in the 2nd and third round) are gold because they provide the best points to pay for academy selections.

The expansion clubs have shown a willingness in recent years to trade down the order agressively while also stockpiling picks in the 20's and 30's (to pay for academy blokes).

Apologies as I didn't pick up that the conversation gravitated around GWS, so in that case, no doubt.

Again, GWS have to make good of the position they're in rather than planning for some distant future.
They can do both but it may be weighted heavier for the now, than for 3-5 years time. Such a great position to be in, but they still have to be careful.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'm still going Curnow + Brodie

So would I but if you changed Curnow to nearly any other player available then I think Collingwood would be pretty happy

 

[Jimmae]

Pick 3 (2,234 points) alone is worth the same value as picks 7 and 31 (2,250).

GWS (based on recent form) will value the points from 2nd rounders and early 3rds (to use on academy selections) and they'll also value the chance to pick a player in the top 3 (they agressively traded down the order last year to snare Taranto).

Picks [3 and 20] or [picks 3 and 38 + 39] (assuming Casboult leaves as a F/A and gets Band 3 or 4) will definately do it.



He's a 22 year old Elite midfielder.

Hes exactly what our list needs. That and a 22 year old elite KPF.

GWS play by different rules.

Early picks are gold because they allow access to the best talent before academy bids. Later picks (in the 2nd and third round) are gold because they provide the best points to pay for academy selections.

The expansion clubs have shown a willingness in recent years to trade down the order agressively while also stockpiling picks in the 20's and 30's (to pay for academy blokes).

You're forgetting one very important thing with these scenarios: clubs can only have as many picks in the draft as they have list spaces. This is an amendment that was made prior to last year's draft to prevent what GWS did in 2015.

As a result, they'll only look to have picks where they need them for academy players (noting that they can only take one in the top 20/first round if they finish in the top 4), and otherwise maximise their top 20 selections relative to their available list positions.

On the flip side, this increases the chances for other teams being able to secure academy kids who are placed in the 30-50 range of the draft, and further wears down GWS' list advantages over time.

 

[ShanDog]

You're forgetting one very important thing with these scenarios: clubs can only have as many picks in the draft as they have list spaces. This is an amendment that was made prior to last year's draft to prevent what GWS did in 2015.

As a result, they'll only look to have picks where they need them for academy players (noting that they can only take one in the top 20/first round if they finish in the top 4), and otherwise maximise their top 20 selections relative to their available list positions.

On the flip side, this increases the chances for other teams being able to secure academy kids who are placed in the 30-50 range of the draft, and further wears down GWS' list advantages over time.

A lot also depends on what their academy talent looks like - what's the word so far this year?