Bluemour Discussion Thread IV

[Arr0w]

Irrelevant mate. We dont have pick 6 and 10.

We'll have (most likely if Gibbs and Cas leave): Picks 3, 12, 20, 38, 56, 74 or thereabouts.

They can have 3 + 20 for Kelly. That values him at 3200 points (500 points more than Treloar, and more value than pick 1 alone).

You are missing a couple crucial points, which makes your proposal slightly flawed

You say we will get Kelly for pick 3 + the potential Casboult compo pick (He would have to agree to another club's offer of at least $650K per year for at least 2 years to gain that pick). Let's say that he is offered that and we give 3 + 20 to get Kelly.

Tell me which tall forward does Kelly spot up when we have no Casboult? As I see it, we only have one genuine KPF in McKay, who hasn't played a game and a hybrid in Charlie, who could be anything.

As I stated at the start, if SOS goes after Kelly, he will do so while either retaining pick 3 or say a pick around 10, by trading back with a deal which will involve another club, such as WC or Dogs (based on current ladder positions ). Together with trading Gibbs, which seems like that will also involve another club, should allow for 2 x 1st round picks to target Kelly. We also do not jeopardize next year's 1st rounder

My firm belief, SOS will hold on to our current 1st rounder and target a guy like Sutherland or Brander. We could still land Kelly, but I doubt it will be at the expense of pick 3

Looking forward to the trade/draft period !!

 

[TooBlue14]

You're forgetting one very important thing with these scenarios: clubs can only have as many picks in the draft as they have list spaces. This is an amendment that was made prior to last year's draft to prevent what GWS did in 2015.

As a result, they'll only look to have picks where they need them for academy players (noting that they can only take one in the top 20/first round if they finish in the top 4), and otherwise maximise their top 20 selections relative to their available list positions.

On the flip side, this increases the chances for other teams being able to secure academy kids who are placed in the 30-50 range of the draft, and further wears down GWS' list advantages over time.

All you have to do is have extra list spots and no rookies. Pass on your late picks or use them for points. Either re-rookie delisted players or pick up kids that missed the national draft.

 

[ajb72]

In before Carlton trade period where we do no trades, pick up no one of notice and take our draft picks to the draft. And 12 months of hot air is exactly that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RudyBlue]

Our pick inside the top 5 should be strictly off limits.
Kelly is worth whatever the Crows give us for Gibbs, nothing more.

Would much prefer to give up a 2018 1st than this year's

 

[Malifice]

Tell me which tall forward does Kelly spot up when we have no Casboult? As I see it, we only have one genuine KPF in McKay, who hasn't played a game and a hybrid in Charlie, who could be anything.

Exactly. Like I've been saying - we need to draft a gun 18-22 y/o KPF.

 

[Malifice]

Yeh that makes no sense. GWS would just say ok give us 3 and 12 and we will give you some late picks back so you actually pay us less points. They don't need points this year they will want the best picks they can get

And we say no. He can go play for Brisbane.

Pick 3 and 20 (about the same as what the got for Treloar points wise) or GAGF.

 

[Arr0w]

A lot also depends on what their academy talent looks like - what's the word so far this year?

Not as good as the last couple of years. Doubt any of their kids will be first rounders

 

[smashbox gill]

Pick 3 + Gibbs pick + casboult compo for Kelly and Hopper. Get it done

 

[Jimmae]

A lot also depends on what their academy talent looks like - what's the word so far this year?

At least check they still had some kids that looked like being in the 20-50 range, despite the changes that have been made.

All you have to do is have extra list spots and no rookies. Pass on your late picks or use them for points. Either re-rookie delisted players or pick up kids that missed the national draft.

Ok so right now, here's who they have out of contract:

Senior List - Hopper, Smith, Kennedy, Johnson, Kelly, De Boer, Simpson, Himmelberg, Downie (retired)
Rookie List - Mzungu, Reid, Patfull (retired), Lloyd, Sproule^, Stein^

Green means trade, red means delist (IMO); ^ denotes Cat B rookies.

So before incomings, that's 9 senior list positions, and one rookie list position. They may opt to retain De Boer if that's the case, but you can be certain they're going to target a senior inside mid, a small forward, a genuine KPD and a ruck before they're done with the trade period.

That leaves them with 4 or 5 picks at the draft, with which they'll be armed with whatever picks they get for Kelly, plus another couple of second round picks, in addition to the two second round picks they will have in lieu of their own 2nd and 3rd (and the first they will lose through the points deduction). So that's at least 6 picks.

You can bet they're going to trade out of the 20-40 range, grab a couple of early gems and then scoop up their academy kids. The wiggle room you're talking about isn't really there.

They have serious list deficiencies they need to address, and they need to re-assert themselves both with regards to their academy claims and continuing to bring top-end talent in, the change being that this year those would appear to be two separate issues.

 

[Sector 7G]

And we say no. He can go play for Brisbane.

Pick 3 and 20 (about the same as what the got for Treloar points wise) or GAGF.

Or we could just give them pick 3 which is worth what Collingwood thought they were paying points wise.

 

[Toddski]

Exactly. Like I've been saying - we need to draft a gun 18-22 y/o KPF.

Brander says hi.

 

[Azzurro]

Pick 3 + Gibbs pick + casboult compo for Kelly and Hopper. Get it done

You forgot to + the farm

 

[Blue_Fusion]

You are missing a couple crucial points, which makes your proposal slightly flawed

You say we will get Kelly for pick 3 + the potential Casboult compo pick (He would have to agree to another club's offer of at least $650K per year for at least 2 years to gain that pick). Let's say that he is offered that and we give 3 + 20 to get Kelly.

Tell me which tall forward does Kelly spot up when we have no Casboult? As I see it, we only have one genuine KPF in McKay, who hasn't played a game and a hybrid in Charlie, who could be anything.

As I stated at the start, if SOS goes after Kelly, he will do so while either retaining pick 3 or say a pick around 10, by trading back with a deal which will involve another club, such as WC or Dogs (based on current ladder positions ). Together with trading Gibbs, which seems like that will also involve another club, should allow for 2 x 1st round picks to target Kelly. We also do not jeopardize next year's 1st rounder

My firm belief, SOS will hold on to our current 1st rounder and target a guy like Sutherland or Brander. We could still land Kelly, but I doubt it will be at the expense of pick 3

Looking forward to the trade/draft period !!

Yeah and we're going to kick it to Brander next year aren't we?

We don't need a tall gun kpf.

Charlie is marking everything in sight or at the very least creating contests. Jack has become a very good target as well. With Cas gone, Harry will be given his chance. With the surplus of quality kpd's we have, we can send Weitering forward as well.

We have options and to be honest they're all better than Casboult anyway.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

You are missing a couple crucial points, which makes your proposal slightly flawed

You say we will get Kelly for pick 3 + the potential Casboult compo pick (He would have to agree to another club's offer of at least $650K per year for at least 2 years to gain that pick). Let's say that he is offered that and we give 3 + 20 to get Kelly.

Tell me which tall forward does Kelly spot up when we have no Casboult? As I see it, we only have one genuine KPF in McKay, who hasn't played a game and a hybrid in Charlie, who could be anything.

As I stated at the start, if SOS goes after Kelly, he will do so while either retaining pick 3 or say a pick around 10, by trading back with a deal which will involve another club, such as WC or Dogs (based on current ladder positions ). Together with trading Gibbs, which seems like that will also involve another club, should allow for 2 x 1st round picks to target Kelly. We also do not jeopardize next year's 1st rounder

My firm belief, SOS will hold on to our current 1st rounder and target a guy like Sutherland or Brander. We could still land Kelly, but I doubt it will be at the expense of pick 3

Looking forward to the trade/draft period !!

I'd trade pick 3 for Kelly in a heartbeat. A ****ing heart beat. He's better than anyone at pick 3, no risk and right age.

 

[cookie monster]

I think pick 3 and a big salary dump will get Kelly done

 

[__Bobcat__]

Excuse the bt pun "but boy o boy wowwee"

Kelly to the blues!
Yes please!
Would improve our playing list ten fold.

 

[Weiterbot23]

Is Kelly better than Treloar (I think so but only be worth slightly more in a trade).

Collingwood got him for pick 7 and a future first which most would have assumed would be 12-14 and got GWS second rounder coming back.


On that logic, there really shouldn't be a HUGE amount more we have to put on top. Maybe next years second round pick.


Then we get a top 10 pick in 2018 as well as Bosos (who drops out of the first round with shoulder injuries).

 

[Jabba73]

Charlie is marking everything in sight or at the very least creating contests. Jack has become a very good target as well. With Cas gone, Harry will be given his chance. With the surplus of quality kpd's we have, we can send Weitering forward as well.

We have options and to be honest they're all better than Casboult anyway.

Not yet they aren't.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Yeah and we're going to kick it to Brander next year aren't we?

We don't need a tall gun kpf.

Charlie is marking everything in sight or at the very least creating contests. Jack has become a very good target as well. With Cas gone, Harry will be given his chance. With the surplus of quality kpd's we have, we can send Weitering forward as well.

We have options and to be honest they're all better than Casboult anyway.

Casboult is first in the comp for contested grabs and one of the better chop out rucks going around. He has 23 goals and looks likely for ~ 30 for the year, has actually been very very good this year. Deserves a good contract if he keeps it up.

 

[tarczonandjane]

I reckon you can all give up on Cas being here next year. Levi and his manager have tested the market every year for the last four years. They're itching to get out. The only reason they didn't last year was that Levi's form was so poor that no one else wanted him. I'd bet London to a brick on that they'll cash in their chips this year. This is his last chance at a big payday.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Two first rounders for Kelly, Hopper and Patton as the steak knives.

A man can dream....

 

[JuddgementDay]

Yeah and we're going to kick it to Brander next year aren't we?

We don't need a tall gun kpf.

Charlie is marking everything in sight or at the very least creating contests. Jack has become a very good target as well. With Cas gone, Harry will be given his chance. With the surplus of quality kpd's we have, we can send Weitering forward as well.

We have options and to be honest they're all better than Casboult anyway.

+ kerr, how is he coming along?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Not yet they aren't.

They don't have to be yet. We're not winning a flag next year. When the time comes they'll be ready don't worry about that. Footy has evolved you need the dynamic types that dominate forward and mid.

Cripps is one of them, when he goes forward he provides a strong marking option, when in the middle he dominates clearances.

Charlie is starting to own it as a forward already. Still yet to see him play in the middle but imo he's capable.

 

[F_therest]

I reckon you can all give up on Cas being here next year. Levi and his manager have tested the market every year for the last four years. They're itching to get out. The only reason they didn't last year was that Levi's form was so poor that no one else wanted him. I'd bet London to a brick on that they'll cash in their chips this year. This is his last chance at a big payday.

Yep really looking like he's gone...rumour was we actually offered him 2 years last year but he opted one for this very reason, to have a good season and get a bigger contract elsewhere.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Casboult is first in the comp for contested grabs and one of the better chop out rucks going around. He has 23 goals and looks likely for ~ 30 for the year, has actually been very very good this year. Deserves a good contract if he keeps it up.

I agree, he does deserve a good contract.... elsewhere.

I'll take pick #20 for him in a heartbeat to use for a Kelly trade with our 1st.