Betting on the rising star - should it be allowed

[thebarry111]

What are peoples thoughts on this?

Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.

Look at the judges, would you actually classify them as football experts?

Gillon McLachlan (chairman), Kevin Sheehan, Kevin Bartlett, Luke Darcy, Andrew Dillon, Danny Frawley, Glen Jakovich, Chris Johnson, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea

The main criteria for awarding the medal is "judges vote on output this season and not on potential".

So what is output? Are we talking statistics?

Comparing the two statistically:


McGrath vs Burton
Avg Disposals 19.7 21.3
Disposal efficiency 82% 81%
Meters Gained 196.3 343.1
Av Kicks 8.6 13.4
Av contested possies 5.2 5.1
Av intercept possies 4.9 5.9
Av marks 4 5.7
goals 1 4
av score involvements 3.3 3.5
av tackles 2.7 2.9
av inside 50's 1.1 2.4
av rebounds 2.3 3.8

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Interestingly not one of the supposed "expert" judges gave Burton 5 votes.

Betting agencies should be paying out on Burton as that result is a disgrace based on the above criteria. Hence why Burton was paying $1.40

Going forward the judges should be forced to explain why they gave the 5,4,3,2,1

I'd love to hear someones thoughts from one of the betting agencies. I'm sure they read this. This result based on the above is a disgrace.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No issue when you could have got McGrath!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

You can bet on staged TV series ffs.

It's a bet entered into by the bookie and the punter, both knowing the rules.

Stupid thread.

 

[The Prosecutor]

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I don't need betting to enjoy sport but won't stop people who want to.

More the younger people who need to have an understanding on betting.

 

[thebarry111]

You can bet on staged TV series ffs.

It's a bet entered into by the bookie and the punter, both knowing the rules.

Stupid thread.

So what are the actual rules? Thats the issue, if it's based on the judges basing the year on output and under that criteria one player has clearly come out on top, should you be able to bet on it?

Its too subjective under the criteria when 17 reporters from AFL.com judged the award during the week... the results were:

Ryan Burton: 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4 (77 votes)

Andrew McGrath: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 5 (67)

Yet not one of the experts gave Burton 5 votes. Terrible award the afl should not let betting allowed on. The fact Gill is one of the judges makes this even worse.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

So what are the actual rules? Thats the issue, if it's based on the judges basing the year on output and under that criteria one player has clearly come out on top, should you be able to bet on it?

Its too subjective under the criteria when 17 reporters from AFL.com judged the award during the week... the results were:

Ryan Burton: 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4 (77 votes)

Andrew McGrath: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 5 (67)

Yet not one of the experts gave Burton 5 votes. Terrible award the afl should not let betting allowed on. The fact Gill is one of the judges makes this even worse.

It's the thoughts of a number of people, the same as the Brownlow and the Norm Smith Medal. That's the rules.

People disagree with you. Deal with it. I watch a fair bit of footy and I actually thought Powell Pepper was the best player. But I wouldn't be stupid enough to bet on it.

How much did you lose?

 

[PP34]

You can bet on anything. Don't really see why the rising star should be excluded.

If anything this year is a reminder of why the rising star is a dumb bet. Too much random voting which leads to some odd results.

 

[Cyclonus]

Free market, anything should be allowed.

I put $2 on McGrath and returned $6.50.

Bet big, die hard.

 

[DazalenkoUBewty]

Gambling = corruption

Pepper

 

[exxcessivve]

Yet not one of the experts gave Burton 5 votes. Terrible award the afl should not let betting allowed on.

I don't think the AFL gets to choose. There's betting markets for how many Tweets Donald Trump will post, and whether or not he will meet with Kim Jong Un during his presidency. I currently have money on Obama to become a Hollywood actor. They can do whatever they want so long as it isn't defamatory I'd say.

 

[Rimmer]

Betting in the AFL is out of hand, the advertising and recruiting of kids at a young age is a disgrace. Pure Greed from the AFL drives it and they are destroying lives and tainting a generation of kids into thinking betting is cool.

 

[thebarry111]

I don't think the AFL gets to choose. There's betting markets for how many Tweets Donald Trump will post, and whether or not he will meet with Kim Jong Un during his presidency. I currently have money on Obama to become a Hollywood actor. They can do whatever they want so long as it isn't defamatory I'd say.

Actually that isn't correct. The afl called the betting agencies and told them that markets were to be suspended as of monday, they do have control over the markets.

 

[thebarry111]

It's the thoughts of a number of people, the same as the Brownlow and the Norm Smith Medal. That's the rules.

People disagree with you. Deal with it. I watch a fair bit of footy and I actually thought Powell Pepper was the best player. But I wouldn't be stupid enough to bet on it.

How much did you lose?

This is the thing though, you thought pepper-powell was the best player based on what? What is the actual award based on?

Lost a shit load as the afl called the betting agencies and suspended betting monday so i couldn't hedge out. Seriously annoyed.

Its crap that they can call up the betting agencies and close betting.

 

[EssendonPride]

What are peoples thoughts on this?

Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.

Look at the judges, would you actually classify them as football experts?

Gillon McLachlan (chairman), Kevin Sheehan, Kevin Bartlett, Luke Darcy, Andrew Dillon, Danny Frawley, Glen Jakovich, Chris Johnson, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea

The main criteria for awarding the medal is "judges vote on output this season and not on potential".

So what is output? Are we talking statistics?

Comparing the two statistically:


McGrath vs Burton
Avg Disposals 19.7 21.3
Disposal efficiency 82% 81%
Meters Gained 196.3 343.1
Av Kicks 8.6 13.4
Av contested possies 5.2 5.1
Av intercept possies 4.9 5.9
Av marks 4 5.7
goals 1 4
av score involvements 3.3 3.5
av tackles 2.7 2.9
av inside 50's 1.1 2.4
av rebounds 2.3 3.8

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Interestingly not one of the supposed "expert" judges gave Burton 5 votes.

Betting agencies should be paying out on Burton as that result is a disgrace based on the above criteria. Hence why Burton was paying $1.40

Going forward the judges should be forced to explain why they gave the 5,4,3,2,1

I'd love to hear someones thoughts from one of the betting agencies. I'm sure they read this. This result based on the above is a disgrace.

This might be shocking, especially to the younger generation..... But did you realise that disposals aren't everything?
We're comparing defenders here. One of them apparently had "the best defensive rating in the competition" this year. One got a bit more of the ball.

Both would have been worthy winners, but it's hardly rigged. You bet, you lost, deal with it.

 

[The King!]

David King likes to bet on it

 

[Bunk Moreland]

This is the thing though, you thought pepper-powell was the best player based on what? What is the actual award based on?

Lost a shit load as the afl called the betting agencies and suspended betting monday so i couldn't hedge out. Seriously annoyed.

Its crap that they can call up the betting agencies and close betting.

You're asking these questions - that you don't know the answer to - after you've placed your bet and lost.

It hurts to know, but you deserved to lose.

If you want to keep gambling, take it as a lesson, learn from it, and use your head.

 

[calyam]

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Unfortunately none of those criteria you cited is a measure of impact. A player with more disposals is more likely to have a greater impact but we can all think of instances when that doesn't hold. Raw statistics are not particularly useful as a measure of impact or output and certainly not as useful as the average fan believes.

Using more advanced metrics we find evidence that Burton was the better offensive player and McGrath was the better defensive player. Offensively both Burton and McGrath were good for a player of their age and experience but not outstanding, with Burton shading McGrath in this area. However, defensively McGrath enjoys a significant advantage - ChampionData recently noted that he was one of the most effective defensive players in the league (not just among Rising Stars).

The decision between Burton and McGrath was borderline but a decision had to be made. The reality is that you are simply angry because you lost a bet. That's unfortunate for you but hardly evidence of corruption or incompetence. It would have also been possible to hedge your bet by placing money on McGrath that would have all but ensured you made a profit.

 

[Corleone]

You gambled. You lost. It's really is that simple.

Did you not know how the medal was to be judged? Did you not know that your opinion, while based on statistical analysis, may not match up with the opinions of those who decide the result of what you're betting on? Did you not know that the sports controlling body has the ability to pressure betting agencies to freeze markets?

The truth is it doesn't matter if you knew these things or not. You're an adult who chose to bet on something and the result didn't go your way.

You lost.

 

[scaryness]

David King likes to bet on it

His heart (and pocket) warms every time he sees Lewis Taylor

 

[spinynorman]

No it shouldn't be allowed, but not really for the reasons you state.

But currently the amount of things that can be bet on is far too high.

You can bet on election results, you can bet on who will win the next Oscar or Nobel Prize, you can bet on who will be the next character killed off on Stranger Things(!), you can bet on what will be named the most used emoticon in 2017, you can bet on whether the next RBA meeting will increase or decrease interest rates. It is, frankly, out of control, and in these kinds of things where insider knowledge can greatly influence one's bets it should really be disallowed. There's so much that can be bet on in the AFL - I really don't think it's of any great benefit that people can bet on who is the next Gold Coast coach, which club Dustin Martin will end up signing with, or who's going to win the Rising Star or Brownlow.

 

[exxcessivve]

Actually that isn't correct. The afl called the betting agencies and told them that markets were to be suspended as of monday, they do have control over the markets.

Huh that's interesting. I did see it was suspended today, because I was going to put money on Burton (expecting him to win) to offset the $3.50 I was expecting to lose from when I bet it on SPP back in January haha.

Maybe they have control because it is sports betting and there is legislation relevant to that, whereas there are no regulations pertaining to gambling on things such as politics.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Andrew Dillon

This bloke works harder than Gil. How many bloody jobs does he have?

 

[master bate]

No problem with betting. You can't complain that you lost your money on a popularity award. Although it was pretty easy to read the tea leaves on where this one was going in the last few weeks as the McGrath hype built with a strong finish to the year.

My issue is with the voting system. It is a popularity contest using mostly basic stats and gut feel to determine a players impact then labelled as a 'rising star'.

I'd rather pick 3 judges (as part of a far more diverse panel of maybe 30 or so judges) score each eligible players game with a score out of 10 for a combined score out of 30. Then I'd add the best 10 games for every player together for their total score. Play 10 games and that's your 10 scores. Play 22 and you get your 10 best so there is reward for playing regularly. Utilising all the different media and officials who watch games would allow for different judges to cover different players and make sure the judges are scoring players they've actually watched.

I'd make sure that scores of 8, 9 and 10 are only given out in truly outstanding games so that the tall forwards and goal kickers get fair value from their damaging games whilst midfielders and flankers aren't overscored for accumulating decent stats. Add up the scores at the end of the season and you'd find a true rising star who has played a large number of high impact games.

 

[Taylor]

Knowing who will be voting and that it is entirely a subjective award should really make it against the rules to bet on... And not try and fix the result.

If you sat in the right circle of people you could know all of them and every year put down your end of season bonus on the player who will win, add a free 30% to your cash.

Who would ever know.