Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[JustaBattler]

Maybe it's also a plan B. There is a possibility that if Kelly leaves, he is swaying to the Saints.
Saints need Pick 3 to do the deal..SOS then needs 7&8 to hit draft with one and use the other for a deal.

My quick response is:

IF Saints 'need' pick#3 to get Kelly - THEN tough luck - why should Carlton be in the business of helping those campaigners?
IF Gibbs is going THEN there will be adequate compensation in terms of extra pick(s) to get a second first round pick in I would have thought and SOS goes to draft with #3 plus pick#18 + I would have thought AND IF as many are saying after top5 there is a drop off - THEN it gets down to recruiting calls
AND IF Gibbs decides to stay THEN pick#3 bringing in a gun mid OR Kelly OR a couple of decent GWS mids is better again.

So NO to swapping #3 for 7&8 ffrom Saints - any way I simplify the equation.

 

[Jimmae]

What about Higgins? Coffield? Stephenson?

Wouldn't surprise, should at least one and possibly two 'outliers' to find their way into the top five.
Taranto did last year. Oliver the year before. Pickett & DeGoey the year before that etc.

Maybe it won't happen this year, but I think it will.

Higgins.

There is no gap in quality to a player like Higgins, who will be available then. Just a gap in height. He'd be a great pick up at 8 or 10.

I figured people would bring up Higgins as a priority, and while he runs a good beep, he's shown limited midfield capacity in the TAC, so I'm not convinced his game will translate well there at AFL level.

You bring up Coffield, Higgins and Stephenson, but what about Hayes, Constable, L.Fogarty, Garner, Naughton and Brayshaw (just off the top of my head)?

Virtually all of them fill a need for us, and you can pretty much throw a blanket over them. Maybe 1 or 2 will stand up in the TAC or either post-season games, but they'll probably still pale to the top 5. I say if we drop down, we try to drop further, particularly if we get #10.

 

[JustaBattler]

And I believe Richmond may be open to this as they have f/s in Patrick Naish to get. Upgrade one first rounder and only need a second rounder to get naish.

Again - why help the Tuggers?

Carlton doesn't need to help any Club - Clubs need to help Carlton and what Carlton needs is a couple of decent mids NOW - not speculative lower draft picks that might develop into decent AFL players 2-3 years from now.

 

[RAPPA]

My quick response is:

IF Saints 'need' pick#3 to get Kelly - THEN tough luck - why should Carlton be in the business of helping those campaigners?
IF Gibbs is going THEN there will be adequate compensation in terms of extra pick(s) to get a second first round pick in I would have thought and SOS goes to draft with #3 plus pick#18 + I would have thought AND IF as many are saying after top5 there is a drop off - THEN it gets down to recruiting calls
AND IF Gibbs decides to stay THEN pick#3 bringing in a gun mid OR Kelly OR a couple of decent GWS mids is better again.

So NO to swapping #3 for 7&8 ffrom Saints - any way I simplify the equation.

SOS will be motivated by what I see best for the club, not what benefits an opposition club. Who cares if Santa get something, provided we are not being screwed over in the deal, if it's fair, equitable and benefits the blues, then that's the priority.

 

[Bic]

Again - why help the Tuggers?

Carlton doesn't need to help any Club - Clubs need to help Carlton and what Carlton needs is a couple of decent mids NOW - not speculative lower draft picks that might develop into decent AFL players 2-3 years from now.

I understand your thinking but we helped out Hawthorn just last year... still didn't turn out too bad for us.

Look at St Kilda "helping" out Hawthorn too for them to land Omeara - sometimes you can play a key part of the trade and get no player but immense value.

I also disagree with your "now" - I think we are still 2-3 pre seasons away from really challenging - but there is a massive hole in our team that provides someone out there a massive opportunity to own it - that is pretty attractive bargaining chip to grab a key player screaming for that opportunity.

 

[Azul]

picks 7 and 8 for pick 3? Yes.

Take last year, you'd be swapping McLuggage for Logue and Brodie. Now everyone acknowledges that McLuggage will be a special player but Logue and Brodie would be more than handy contributors for our next flag.

So gambling on a risky talent like Rayner who if he's any good would go 1 or 2 anyway vs. two reliable options, I'd take 2 birds in the hand over one in the bush.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Again - why help the Tuggers?

Carlton doesn't need to help any Club - Clubs need to help Carlton and what Carlton needs is a couple of decent mids NOW - not speculative lower draft picks that might develop into decent AFL players 2-3 years from now.

You help others if it helps yourself - ala the pick swap with Hawthorn last year.

Pick 3 into 7 and 8.
Pick 8 into 15 and 16.
Gibbs into 17 and 35.
Picks 17 and 35 into Kennedy and 24.

Draft: 7 (Higgins), 15 (Constable), 16 (Brayshaw), 24 (Hayes)

Turns Gibbs and Pick 3 into those four plus Kennedy.

Pick 38 into Lang.
Pick 56 into Balic.

Lose Gibbs.
Gain 6 midfielders (3x 18yo, 2x 20yo, 1x 22yo).
Gain an 18yo ruck/forward.

Win flag in 3-4 years time.

 

[1981]

Coniglio
Scully
Kelly
Smith
Kennedy
And earlier Hopper

Sounds like we are after half of their list

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

At his peak, Lang is a balanced midfielder who can run all day, has good acceleration, agility and kicking.

Trained the house down this pre-season but couldn't translate that to consistent senior performances. As you say, size is the concern with him in close, but you can play him on either flank or the wing and he has no issues, as well as being handy around the stoppage.

Geelong's structure at either end and the persistence with Motlop has kept him out of the team and he has stagnated.

No more Cats hacks please

 

[JustaBattler]

You help others if it helps yourself - ala the pick swap with Hawthorn last year.

Pick 3 into 7 and 8.
Pick 8 into 15 and 16.
Gibbs into 17 and 35.
Picks 17 and 35 into Kennedy and 24.

Draft: 7 (Higgins), 15 (Constable), 16 (Brayshaw), 24 (Hayes)

Turns Gibbs and Pick 3 into those four plus Kennedy.

Pick 38 into Lang.
Pick 56 into Balic.

Lose Gibbs.
Gain 6 midfielders (3x 18yo, 2x 20yo, 1x 22yo).
Gain an 18yo ruck/forward.

Win flag in 3-4 years time.

Gibbs is worth more to Carlton and its chances of properly developing the youth it already has than pick 17+35 - both of whom bring NOTHING to the task.
Pick 3 for 7+8 is only useful if 7+8 can be used to get decent developed mids in .

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

No to Scully, prefer Mulder


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Very Interesting!

 

[Zlatan]

Still not understanding why the Saints would trade 3 for 7&8?

If we'd take that deal in a heartbeat, why would the saints give it up from their perspective?

Which of these players in the draft is so "must have" that they would be willing to do a crazy deal like this?

The only way you trade up is if your targeted player is guaranteed to be there. GWS traded up for pick 2 only last year and still missed out on McGrath. Clubs will be extremely cautious of this sort of approach, especially considering no body knows if Bris or GC will be trading their picks to a Vic club.

Only way this swap works is if the Saints need pick 3 more than 7&8 for some absurd reason.

 

[kjr8]

Coniglio
Scully
Kelly
Smith
Kennedy
And earlier Hopper

Sounds like we are after half of their list

Good!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[KohPhi]

My quick response is:

IF Saints 'need' pick#3 to get Kelly - THEN tough luck - why should Carlton be in the business of helping those campaigners?
IF Gibbs is going THEN there will be adequate compensation in terms of extra pick(s) to get a second first round pick in I would have thought and SOS goes to draft with #3 plus pick#18 + I would have thought AND IF as many are saying after top5 there is a drop off - THEN it gets down to recruiting calls
AND IF Gibbs decides to stay THEN pick#3 bringing in a gun mid OR Kelly OR a couple of decent GWS mids is better again.

So NO to swapping #3 for 7&8 ffrom Saints - any way I simplify the equation.

Yeah there is an even simpler equation. A poster with supposedly inside info has suggested this is being discussed. So it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

Also, If Kelly chooses the Saints, there is nothing we can do and as we all know, more often than not, an uncontracted player will get to where he wants to go. So if our original plan was to use Pick 3 on Kelly and he wants Saints, it means a new approach is required.
So if getting Kelly is out of the question, and SOS doesn't have a stand out candidate in mind for pick 3, then maybe he thinks getting 2 1st round picks is beneficial. The Saints may not want to go down that path, but may see it as neccasary to secure Kelly, much the same way as we reluctantly let Kennedy go to secure Judd.
In this scenario, SOS is getting what HE wants (see, I can use capitals as well), as well as maintaining "good will" with another club. Have a look how difficult Essendon are at the trade table. This has potentially cost them in the past.

Remember, the industry doesn't think like us passionate supporters when it comes to trades and will always approach it like a business transaction. If there is a BENEFIT to us to trade Pick 3, then SOS will take that path and that may perplex some of the outsiders looking in. Look at the Omeara trade last season as a perfect example.

 

[AT97]

Don't get sucked into thinking that the names everyone is talking about today, will be the only names worthy of top 10 selection in November.
Lots can change yet, over the course of the next ten weeks. It always does.

Brett Anderson says Bonar and Murphy the two bolters. Bonar top 10, I'm assuming he's suggesting Murphy could be the same.

 

[JustaBattler]

Yeah there is an even simpler equation. A poster with supposedly inside info has suggested this is being discussed. So it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

Also, If Kelly chooses the Saints, there is nothing we can do and as we all know, more often than not, an uncontracted player will get to where he wants to go. So if our original plan was to use Pick 3 on Kelly and he wants Saints, it means a new approach is required.
So if getting Kelly is out of the question, and SOS doesn't have a stand out candidate in mind for pick 3, then maybe he thinks getting 2 1st round picks is beneficial. The Saints may not want to go down that path, but may see it as neccasary to secure Kelly, much the same way as we reluctantly let Kennedy go to secure Judd.
In this scenario, SOS is getting what HE wants (see, I can use capitals as well), as well as maintaining "good will" with another club. Have a look how difficult Essendon are at the trade table. This has potentially cost them in the past.

Remember, the industry doesn't think like us passionate supporters when it comes to trades and will always approach it like a business transaction. If there is a BENEFIT to us to trade Pick 3, then SOS will take that path and that may perplex some of the outsiders looking in. Look at the Omeara trade last season as a perfect example.

All you are doing is re-stating what we both agree to- IF there is a benefit to do X then do X. What i am saying is that 7+8 for 3 will only be done in the context of bringing in some developed players and I believe that pick 3will also be used the same way.

 

[My name geoff]

Richmond have 2 top 17 picks. Their own and geelongs I think (given for touhy to us, to gws for marchbank, to Richmond for Deledio).

If both teams go deep in finals, would we try:
3 for 7 & 8
8 for 15 & 16
Effectively turn 3 into 7, 15 & 16
From a points perspective they'll be unbalanced, so may need other swaps to make work.

That's some serious footy card trading. Well done

 

[My name geoff]

You help others if it helps yourself - ala the pick swap with Hawthorn last year.

Pick 3 into 7 and 8.
Pick 8 into 15 and 16.
Gibbs into 17 and 35.
Picks 17 and 35 into Kennedy and 24.

Draft: 7 (Higgins), 15 (Constable), 16 (Brayshaw), 24 (Hayes)

Turns Gibbs and Pick 3 into those four plus Kennedy.

Pick 38 into Lang.
Pick 56 into Balic.

Lose Gibbs.
Gain 6 midfielders (3x 18yo, 2x 20yo, 1x 22yo).
Gain an 18yo ruck/forward.

Win flag in 3-4 years time.

Is that you SOS?

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

What about Higgins? Coffield? Stephenson?

Wouldn't surprise, should at least one and possibly two 'outliers' to find their way into the top five.
Taranto did last year. Oliver the year before. Pickett & DeGoey the year before that etc.

Maybe it won't happen this year, but I think it will.

The medias favourite footballer was considered a bolter when picked at number 4 in 2013 (Bont). There's 1 or 2 every year.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Brett Anderson says Bonar and Murphy the two bolters. Bonar top 10, I'm assuming he's suggesting Murphy could be the same.

Is Bonar related to the young player of the same name for Port last night?

If so, yes please

 

[KohPhi]

IF Saints 'need' pick#3 to get Kelly - THEN tough luck - why should Carlton be in the business of helping those campaigners

All you are doing is re-stating what we both agree to- IF there is a benefit to do X then do X

But your quotes contradict each other JustaBattler..
If Kelly wants the Saints and they need pick 3 to do the deal and SOS would rather 2 top 10 picks than 1 (knowing Kelly is out of Blues equation) then it is a benefit to the Blues to trade 3 for 7 and 8.
So yes we will be helping "those campaigners" but only to the benefit of us as well.
I don't particularly agree or disagree with this scenario tbh, I was more spit balling as to why SOS would want to chat to the Saints about a deal.
Another scenario is maybe Kelly does want the Blues but GWS want 2 x top 10 picks in this draft.
It could be possible that SOS needs the Saints to give US a chop out!
I suppose all will be revealed in the next few weeks!

 

[KohPhi]

Is Bonar related to the young player of the same name for Port last night?

If so, yes please

Im pretty sure PA's is Bonner.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Im pretty sure PA's is Bonner.

Yep. And did Ok last night with only a handful of games under his belt.

 

[katmanblue]

Coniglio
Scully
Kelly
Smith
Kennedy
And earlier Hopper

Sounds like we are after half of their list

Well, of course. SOS picked them originally as well.

 

[Jimmae]

picks 7 and 8 for pick 3? Yes.

Take last year, you'd be swapping McLuggage for Logue and Brodie. Now everyone acknowledges that McLuggage will be a special player but Logue and Brodie would be more than handy contributors for our next flag.

So gambling on a risky talent like Rayner who if he's any good would go 1 or 2 anyway vs. two reliable options, I'd take 2 birds in the hand over one in the bush.

You could not have made a worse case for downgrading than bringing up Brodie.