Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[Funk]

If Kelly nominates the blues and gets here for pick 3 plus, then good.

If we use pick 3 in the draft, then good.

However, if we were a final 8 side pushing for the flag, i'd much prefer Kelly.


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You're pretty smart for a knob head........

 

[My name geoff]

Schache alone is worth Pick 3. Former pick 2 KPF with 2 years under his belt is invaluable for us.

Gibbs for Kelly is a steal.

Rockliff is icing.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I still rate him, I think if all facets of the rumour comes to fruition, Schache is a steal

No comparison to Mckay

 

[Betty_Blue76]

I won't give up the source but it is a senior person within the club and I trust them. The individual trades have been discussed with the clubs involved and are being worked on. Is it a sure thing - absolutely not. Too many moving pieces. But this is "plan A" so to speak.

When you don't just dismiss it out of hand (or because it is too much for you to read and digest) and go into the detail - each trade works for each club involved at each level. This is a careful strategy that the club has put together. This is seen as the culmination in what SOS has been working on for the past 2 years.

Crows will get more than pick 10 for Lever. If the Dees it will be pick 10 plus another mid and likely Trengove from the Dees (though he is worth zero but will go to either Crows or the Suns).

Feel free to dismiss it. But as many have pointed out the logic is sound (and no I didn't make it up - not that clever)

 

[Cliffords Blues]

If we happen to net Kelly, Kennedy, Rockliff and Schache... I'm not worrying about a Lang or Balic.


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But imagine if SOS nailed Balic and Lang as well?
I know all this could be too good to be true, but hell, people would be calling SOS an absolute legend for many years to come.
Hope it all falls into place.

 

[Big_Luch]

Would love to see the list management office, I picture it as wall to wall whiteboards with these trade permutations. Or one dude on a laptop punching names into a spreadsheet..either or...

Wish they would do a 'journey' ep on list management - obviously it would be extremely difficult.

 

[Funk]

All for picking up rocky, he's a gun at winning clearances and I'm sure Cripps would like the help. Pick him up regardless of whether Gibbs leaves or not. Bolts won't take any shit anyway so I don't think the no dick heads stuff really matters... if he comes in to a new club and starts rubbing people the wrong way he'll be in the vfl.

IIRC Rocky was ranked #1 in AFL by Champion Data at winning one-on-one contests inside forward 50.

 

[ferrisb]

Would love to see the list management office, I picture it as wall to wall whiteboards with these trade permutations. Or one dude on a laptop punching names into a spreadsheet..either or...

Wish they would do a 'journey' ep on list management - obviously it would be extremely difficult.

It's actually 100 laptops sticky taped on top of a dozen whiteboards...

 

[SHOWEY]

If this is made up this is brilliant.
If this is real this is... brilliant.

 

[HBF]

Very interesting reading.. Hard to question anything too unrealistic there at all... Thanks for sharing Betty_Blue76

Yeah that was some rumour.

 

[Arr0w]

No comparison to Mckay

Agreed, but we don't have to give up McKay to get Schache

Once McKay's body fills out he will be our forward/ruck option, while Schache will be the stay at home forward

At the end of next year, Casboult may still have some trade worth (Not a lot though)

 

[Funk]

I come in peace..

Just a heads up, SOS having coffee with Stringer this morning in Fitzroy.

I thought they were kicked out othe AFL years ago.......

 

[Space Cadet]

For those attacking BB's rumour as being too good to be true, the first word they said was 'proposal'. Obviously it requires a handful of pieces to fall into place and isn't a done deal, but it does sound logical provided those players want to come.
Bolton and the banked cap space are probably the main advantages that we have over other teams.

 

[HBF]

I don't think we will be picking him up.

Wouldn't be in our best 22 next year anyway.

 

[Aphrodite]

I'm always amazed when such complicated deals are done way before trade week. [emoji849]


Yet NEVER eventuate

Amazing isn't it especially that it has been posted in the Bluemour thread.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

Posted in Blue Rumour thread and realise credibility is zero as a newb but I am very confident in the source:

Proposal is:

1. Carlton trade Bryce Gibbs to Crows for the pick they get for Lever (must be below 12). Most likely Dees pick 10.

Why? - best we will get and the view is Bryce asking to leave again and coming back isn't good for the group. Also part of a wider deal. Problem is if Pies get Lever for pick 6 Crows won't want to give this up without something back. However, we believe Lever wants the Dees.

2. Carlton acquire Rockliff for 2 years at $2m with an option for a third year at $400k. Because the option is conditional the AFL bases compensation on a guaranteed two years - so $1m per year figure. This triggers band 1 compensation for the Lions so they get pick 2. Other suitors are offering Rockliff max $700k, which is not enough to trigger band 1.

3. Carlton trades pick 3, pick 10 (or thereabouts - Crows been told must be pick below 12) from Bryce Gibbs and our third round pick for pick 1, pick 18 and Schache. Lions may also be interested in a player such as Byrne to sweeten the deal.

Why do this trade - helps with Kelly (will explain below), plus gets Rockliff in for support and gets Schache at a discount. Schache is viewed as suffering from being away from family and the belief is he can become a 40+ goal a year FF in Victoria. Lions don't want Rayner but the Suns rate him so won't slip to us at 3. GWS want him and want pick 1 to make sure they get him. Lions value Dow more highly so going from pick 1 to 2 is fine by them. Effectively swapping Schache and 18 for pick 10 and 38. Lions rate the top 10 highly so believe they can add another good mid at 10 (plus have Ports pick - view is 3 good mids to add to the mix).

We will not get Lynch from Gold Coast next year. He will most likely sign with them depending on the new coach and how things look in June next year. Pies have tabled a $1.5m 5 year deal and his family are massive Pie fans but looks more likely to stay at GC. Will not play for Carlton forget it. So we see Schache as a hedge against McKay not coming on. The bank is at least one of those two will become a gun.

4. Carlton trade pick 1 and pick 18 for Kelly, Kennedy and a salary dump.

Why? GWS wants Rayner and will only let Kelly go if they are guaranteed Rayner. They value pick 1 very highly. Kelly wants us the only spanner is a large offer from Essendon, but very likely to knock this back. Our whole strategy hinges on Kelly going to us. We believe this is 75% likely. The salary dump is a huge issue for GWS and they need the cap relief.

NET RESULT -

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38

In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache

The age composition of our mids is lowered with Kelly/Kennedy and Rockliff a similar age to Gibbs. Schache is valuable insurance for a KPF.

We don't have a pick this year until the fourth round but will take 3 picks at the end of the draft and get some delisted free agents. With the investment in the last two drafts and the desire to trade heavily into the 2018 draft with 2019 picks, we don't see this as a huge issue. There is also scope for the Suns to offer up 2nd/3rd round picks for players.

This is the desired blueprint for the Blues and what SOS believes is realistic. There are other options (Stringer for 2018 2nd but dogs likely to say no even if we take a salary dump) and embracing trading Gibbs plus some others for top 40 picks.

I like it. It has merit & strikes me as something SOS would do.
Don't know if the AFL has divulged the formula it uses to award compensation picks to the clubs, and the cynic in me says that despite the 2 mil over 2 years they may not award band 1 based on the short duration of the deal, however the AFL need the QLD clubs to be successful so they will probably give them a leg up if this is the case.


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[Soapy V]

Agreed, but we don't have to give up McKay to get Schache

Once McKay's body fills out he will be our forward/ruck option, while Schache will be the stay at home forward

At the end of next year, Casboult may still have some trade worth (Not a lot though)

McKay >>>>>>> Schache

 

[ESKIE]

Wow that's a rumour !

 

[katmanblue]

Not if we engaged in an illegal off-site performance enhancing drug program.

In that case we just get pick 1 after the sanctions.

 

[ferrisb]

I come in peace..

Just a heads up, SOS having coffee with Stringer this morning in Fitzroy.

I thought they were kicked out othe AFL years ago.......

Nah, it's definitely true.

The poster ain't lion...

 

[Funk]

Surely the top dog at Carlton is...... Liam Jones....

Tutt,tutt,tutt.......

 

[ferrisb]

Tutt,tutt,tutt.......

That boy was king!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

For those who have complained about pages of rubbish with no rumours, true or not this is a doozy. Dine out at this buffet for the next month!

 

[TerryWallet]

Would love to see the list management office, I picture it as wall to wall whiteboards with these trade permutations. Or one dude on a laptop punching names into a spreadsheet..either or...

Wish they would do a 'journey' ep on list management - obviously it would be extremely difficult.

In reality it is all very boring and formulaic. Actual footy people are like that.

It's like Robbo dreaming and salivating over magical coach's addresses, when in reality they are boring and formulaic.

Leigh Matthews' live mic in the box on GF day should have well and truly exploded the myth of the "hidden mysticism" that guys like Robbo are made, and paid, to push.

St Kilda live streamed their list management meetings on their site last year. Now granted they only put out basic stuff. But basically, it is all just basic stuff.

Here is where the magic is.

 

[BlueTongue]

Lever not worth at least pick 10? In a heartbeat

The 2nd scenario will be determined depending where the Crows finish, miss the GF and or a flag and Gibbs is worth pick 10 to them

Would have to be the biggest trade of all time if it comes off, absolutely makes sense for all parties.

GWS get compensated for losing Kelly with Pick 1 (Rayner)

We get fair compo for Gibbs which allows us to get the balance of the trade done.

Brisbane get band 1 compo for Rockliff and schache and two picks in the top 2.

We get Kelly, Kennedy and Rockliff!

SOS would make off like an absolute bandit if he got this done and whatever he makes now I'd be doubling it!

And what of Adelaide - whom are central to the whole thing working - do you think they want to do us any favors?
They don't want to lose Lever, and even if they reluctantly accept Pick 10, they have to give it up for a 29yo (next year) Gibbs, whom they may not even need if they win a flag?