Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[ShanDog]

Put $1 in the swear jar thanks....

Hope you guys have got one at home - mini MEBHBF will have their financial future secured in no time

 

[CJMB]

They also rated Collingwood the best #1 midfield...

In fairness, that rating wasn't based on Collingwood's match day midfield but rather the combined player ratings of all of their midfielders at the club... and they had 17 players on the list classed as midfielders. Sydney didn't rate as well due to depth falling away after the big name stars (and some young guns) even though this doesn't make much difference on game day because those depth players aren't getting a game. A better indication of strength would be to only count the top 6 mids at the club not the entire squad. So at the end of the day Champion Data got the answer right but asked the wrong question.

 

[F_therest]

“We trained him on the weekend and he got through but he’s cooked,’’ Lions football boss David Noble said.

“His GPS data tells us that so it was an easy decision.’’

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/br...s/news-story/9f826ae879780a78e3cb72a9e33aba74

Spin, spin, spin.

Even if he's too cooked to play, he should have been around the club to support the team - not at home in Seymour.

 

[Zlatan]

Do you think it's far away Zlatan?

I think it will need to be pick 10 and something for Gibbs. We may carry some of contract as Crows have a tight Salary Cap

Rockliff & Smith I doubt

The rest are very gettable. It's still 10-12 new young players which I believe 4-5 are ready made to step in

Putting all the rumours we get here and from the media aside, my gut feeling is SoS has put us in a flexible position to react to the Kelly and Gibbs scenarios first and foremost. He would want most of our other trades to be done with the knowledge of what will be happening to these 2 players.

That's why the due diligence is being done with Stringer, Smith, Kennedy, Scully, Griffen etc as it's hard to believe we're targeting this many players with the currency we have, rather, he's preparing for anything and everything.

I'd love for your scenario to play out but with the current way the market/draft is played, I literally have 0 idea of what to expect. I'm on the edge of my seat here and we're 4 weeks away from the trade period..

 

[thylacine60]

Does it make you feel big to just put people down?

absolutely - hbf used to be 6 ' 2"........

 

[Magruder]

Posted in Blue Rumour thread and realise credibility is zero as a newb but I am very confident in the source:

Proposal is:

1. Carlton trade Bryce Gibbs to Crows for the pick they get for Lever (must be below 12). Most likely Dees pick 10.

Why? - best we will get and the view is Bryce asking to leave again and coming back isn't good for the group. Also part of a wider deal. Problem is if Pies get Lever for pick 6 Crows won't want to give this up without something back. However, we believe Lever wants the Dees.

2. Carlton acquire Rockliff for 2 years at $2m with an option for a third year at $400k. Because the option is conditional the AFL bases compensation on a guaranteed two years - so $1m per year figure. This triggers band 1 compensation for the Lions so they get pick 2. Other suitors are offering Rockliff max $700k, which is not enough to trigger band 1.

3. Carlton trades pick 3, pick 10 (or thereabouts - Crows been told must be pick below 12) from Bryce Gibbs and our third round pick for pick 1, pick 18 and Schache. Lions may also be interested in a player such as Byrne to sweeten the deal.

Why do this trade - helps with Kelly (will explain below), plus gets Rockliff in for support and gets Schache at a discount. Schache is viewed as suffering from being away from family and the belief is he can become a 40+ goal a year FF in Victoria. Lions don't want Rayner but the Suns rate him so won't slip to us at 3. GWS want him and want pick 1 to make sure they get him. Lions value Dow more highly so going from pick 1 to 2 is fine by them. Effectively swapping Schache and 18 for pick 10 and 38. Lions rate the top 10 highly so believe they can add another good mid at 10 (plus have Ports pick - view is 3 good mids to add to the mix).

We will not get Lynch from Gold Coast next year. He will most likely sign with them depending on the new coach and how things look in June next year. Pies have tabled a $1.5m 5 year deal and his family are massive Pie fans but looks more likely to stay at GC. Will not play for Carlton forget it. So we see Schache as a hedge against McKay not coming on. The bank is at least one of those two will become a gun.

4. Carlton trade pick 1 and pick 18 for Kelly, Kennedy and a salary dump.

Why? GWS wants Rayner and will only let Kelly go if they are guaranteed Rayner. They value pick 1 very highly. Kelly wants us the only spanner is a large offer from Essendon, but very likely to knock this back. Our whole strategy hinges on Kelly going to us. We believe this is 75% likely. The salary dump is a huge issue for GWS and they need the cap relief.

NET RESULT -

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38

In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache

The age composition of our mids is lowered with Kelly/Kennedy and Rockliff a similar age to Gibbs. Schache is valuable insurance for a KPF.

We don't have a pick this year until the fourth round but will take 3 picks at the end of the draft and get some delisted free agents. With the investment in the last two drafts and the desire to trade heavily into the 2018 draft with 2019 picks, we don't see this as a huge issue. There is also scope for the Suns to offer up 2nd/3rd round picks for players.

This is the desired blueprint for the Blues and what SOS believes is realistic. There are other options (Stringer for 2018 2nd but dogs likely to say no even if we take a salary dump) and embracing trading Gibbs plus some others for top 40 picks.

Thanks for posting this - ties together a lot disparate info.

Not doubting you - but do you reckon you could share your source with a moderator?
I only request this as it keeps your source confidential - b/w you and the mod in question. - and adds much strength to the credibility of your post.
many of this would read your post and think it's like a trade hypothetical.

Really up to you of course

Again - thanks for the info

 

[TD2010]

FFS! he's a Silvagni what more proof do you need ???

(No, no, Pinnell is doing it right) Huge questions over BSOS indeed

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[bluemahogany]

Whitfield has re-signed with GWS, all these signings and no Kelly

 

[Coops93]

Thanks for posting this - ties together a lot disparate info.

Not doubting you - but do you reckon you could share your source with a moderator?
I only request this as it keeps your source confidential - b/w you and the mod in question. - and adds much strength to the credibility of your post.
many of this would read your post and think it's like a trade hypothetical.

Really up to you of course

Again - thanks for the info

In fairness, we haven't asked Barass, Smurf or Vafa to give up there sources. I get they have runs on the board, but still.

 

[TerryWallet]

Whitfield has re-signed with GWS, all these signings and no Kelly

Blow to Hawks and Saints i reckon. Those 2 were his suitors

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Would fix our midfield.........

Especially on wet days

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Does anyone know what the Hawks return favour for helping them with the Omeara trade last year?

Vickery

 

[dazdoggy]

Agree totally, however SOS has shown in the past he is happy to stock up on KPP's as they tend to have the greater trade currency if the need arises.

I think it is great. We are in need for another mid. Allows C Curnow to spend majority of time as a mid.

 

[Magruder]

Wouldn't be in our best 22 next year anyway.

No but probably an upgrade on Phillips for ruck depth

 

[Pinnell]

Spin, spin, spin.

Even if he's too cooked to play, he should have been around the club to support the team - not at home in Seymour.

Agree. And how many of these players that sook and check out early in a season turn out to be any good? Most often they have shown their true colors/character and the cycle continues..

 

[Magruder]

In fairness, we haven't asked Barass, Smurf or Vafa to give up there sources. I get they have runs on the board, but still.

no - but we tend to get tid-bits or updates rather than a complete strategy dossier.

This is relatively complete & detailed.



IIRK - Death anxiety may have revealed source to a mod during the FY15 trade/draft period?

 

[Blue__Balls]

In fairness, we haven't asked Barass, Smurf or Vafa to give up there sources. I get they have runs on the board, but still.

They also don't stroll in and forecast the weather for the next 12 months...

There's inside info, then there's inside info. People with tendencies to share trade secrets on online forums don't get given confidential dossiers on club strategy. Hints, whispers, confirmation on things that have happened but not been made public, that's what the more reliable rumour-lords get access to, because nobody is willing to risk their livelihoods so they can impress some loudmouth.

I've been in a position, once, where I had access to information before it was made public. I knew about Daisy Thomas signing with Carlton the day before it happened - one day early. That was much less sensitive information than what is being offered here, and the club media team were under strict instructions not to share their marketing collateral until the last possible moment. If people believe that a senior figure at the club is passing on comprehensive, confidential information to some real estate asset investor, they've got rocks in their heads.

It's a few paragraphs of join the dots, no more than that. Nothing wrong with joining dots, but claiming it's come from the highest of sources is outlandish.

Still haven't received a response from the poster about why this "not secret" trade bonanza has been fed to an internet random, but nobody in the media has caught wind of it. It's not a secret, everyone benefits, but Barrett/Caro/Robbo aren't running with "Biggest Trade in AFL history: 5 club mega-deal"?

 

[Magruder]

They also don't stroll in and forecast the weather for the next 12 months...

There's inside info, then there's inside info. People with tendencies to share trade secrets on online forums don't get given confidential dossiers on club strategy. Hints, whispers, confirmation on things that have happened but not been made public, that's what the more reliable rumour-lords get access to, because nobody is willing to risk their livelihoods so they can impress some loudmouth.

I've been in a position, once, where I had access to information before it was made public. I knew about Daisy Thomas signing with Carlton the day before it happened - one day early. That was much less sensitive information than what is being offered here, and the club media team were under strict instructions not to share their marketing collateral until the last possible moment. If people believe that a senior figure at the club is passing on comprehensive, confidential information to some real estate asset investor, they've got rocks in their heads.

It's a few paragraphs of join the dots, no more than that. Nothing wrong with joining dots, but claiming it's come from the highest of sources is outlandish.

Still haven't received a response from the poster about why this "not secret" trade bonanza has been fed to an internet random, but nobody in the media has caught wind of it. It's not a secret, everyone benefits, but Barrett/Caro/Robbo aren't running with "Biggest Trade in AFL history: 5 club mega-deal"?

This

 

[Jorge]

Agree totally, however SOS has shown in the past he is happy to stock up on KPP's as they tend to have the greater trade currency if the need arises.

I probably disagree to be honest. Midfield clearly needs the most work however I am not yet completely satisfied with the level of forward line talent we have. And if a player like Schache becomes available I think we should strongly consider it.

Curnow, Silvagni, McKay & Kerr are exciting but it's dangerous to assume they'll all make the grade. If 1 doesn't make it we should be fine but if 2 don't make it then we'll have an important hole on our list. At this stage I am disregarding any future father son prospects, however our list manager is best placed to consider this.

Unless we get Kelly, we'll have a top 3 pick this year. It's probable we will have a top 6 pick next year as well (unfortunately). That's a good chance to get 2 premium midfielders. After that, Free Agency will become a legitimate recruitment option in terms of a flag tilt.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Adelaide can't lowball with an offer of 600-700k then expect 2 x 1st rounders in exchange.

Of course they can, a tight salary cap is the domain of Top 4 sides. They bank on success keeping players for unders.

Lever is certainly worth 2 x first rounders, he's a young gun that plays a key position.

 

[KohPhi]

I probably disagree to be honest. Midfield clearly needs the most work however I am not yet completely satisfied with the level of forward line talent we have. And if a player like Schache becomes available I think we should strongly consider it.

Curnow, Silvagni, McKay & Kerr are exciting but it's dangerous to assume they'll all make the grade. If 1 doesn't make it we should be fine but if 2 don't make it then we'll have an important hole on our list. At this stage I am disregarding any future father son prospects, however our list manager is best placed to consider this.

Unless we get Kelly, we'll have a top 3 pick this year. It's probable we will have a top 6 pick next year as well (unfortunately). That's a good chance to get 2 premium midfielders. After that, Free Agency will become a legitimate recruitment option in terms of a flag tilt.

I actually agree with you as well. Mids are a priority but SOS isn't adverse to having an abundance of talls on the list. Imagine if all of Curnow,McKay, Kerr, JSOS, BSOS come on and we also grab Schache, it could give us good leverage to trade for needs and/or get back in the draft at an high-ish level.
Either way, exciting times!!

 

[bigdog43]

Adelaide would be mad not to give up pick 10 for Gibbs.

 

[JustaBattler]

Adelaide would be mad not to give up pick 10 for Gibbs.

Why?

 

[Gw2_James]

Why do you feel the need to turn this into a personal wager with people's forum memberships on the line?

You say people are free to accept it, question it or dismiss it, but then get sucked into dick measuring contests with anyone who doesn't fit into the first group.

By your own testimony, you've been here all of 5 minutes. In that time you've dropped a highly detailed and complicated 5-club trade scenario, then started asking long-time posters to cancel their accounts if they question you and it happens to go through.

Oh, and the mega-trade isn't a secret at all because it's just everyone helping everyone, and yet no mention of it in the media at all. Either this is being done behind closed doors and someone has risked their career (current and future) to tell you about it, or it's common knowledge and would be all over the TV, radio, internet and papers as one of the biggest deals in AFL history...or it's a bored keyboard warrior trying to get some internet love, or failing that pick fights with strangers.

Rest assured, if this plays out like you say it will, you'll be hailed a hero. If it doesn't, nobody will give a shit if you delete your account because you'll be forgotten by Christmas. If you're not comfortable with that then you're not being realistic about this at all.

Truth.

 

[bigdog43]

Why?

Would take their midfield to another level and make what looks to be a premiership side even better. The draft is a crapshoot and this Adelaide side has no top 10 picks. Back in the recruiting that has given you the best list in the competition and cash in on a gun midfielder.