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Review 2017 AFL National Draft - Friday 24th November

Dow, LDU & Rayner are taken. Who do you select at pick 4?


  • Total voters
    282
  • Poll closed .

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http://www.nmfc.com.au/news/2017-09-25/history-of-pick-4

The AFL NAB National Draft is just around the corner, and with some of the country’s most elite young talent preparing for the Combine in early October, there's plenty to be excited about.

For the first time since 1988, the number four pick lays with North Melbourne.

Of course, not every player taken with selection four has become a star, but in the past 30 years the pick has started the AFL careers of the likes of Justin Leppitsch (Brisbane), Mathew Pavlich (Fremantle) and more recently Josh Kennedy (Carlton & West Coast Eagles). Between the trio the accolades are astonishing; seven best-and-fairests, 11 All-Australian selections and 1,413 goals in 787 games.

Jason McCartney started his career at Collingwood after arriving with pick four in 1990, going on to play 182 games, including 107 with North.

Farren Ray was the most recent number four selection to play at Arden Street Drafted to Western Bulldogs and going on to play seven seasons with St Kilda, including three Premierships, he retired in 2016.

Current top four draft picks at AFL level include Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs), Clayton Oliver (Melbourne) and Andrew Gaff (West Coast Eagles). The trio of midfielders have stamped their name on the competition at their respective clubs.

As was the case in the early days of the draft, many selections didn't necessarily yield players who'd make a mark at the highest level. Drafted as a 16-year-old in 1988, John McNamara never played a game or North.

He later joined both Geelong and Essendon, but finished his career without a senior game, despite his obvious talent as a key-forward.

History of pick 4
2016 - Ben Ainsworth - 13 games*
2015 - Clayton Oliver - 35 games*
2014 - Jarrod Pickett - 10 games*
2013 - Marcus Bontempelli - 85 games*
2012 - Jimmy Toumpas - 37 games*
2011 - Will Hoskin-Elliott - 74 games*
2010 - Andrew Gaff - 156 games*
2009 - Anthony Morabito - 26 games
2008 - Hamish Hartlett - 148 games*
2007 - Cale Morton - 76 games
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger - 135 games*
2005 - Josh Kennedy (Carl/WCE) - 207 games*
2004 - Richard Tambling - 124 games*
2003 - Farren Ray - 209 games
2002 - Tim Walsh - 1 game
2001 - Graham Polak - 111 games
2000 - Luke Livingston - 46 games
1999 - Matthew Pavlich - 353 games
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald - 18 games
1997 - Mark Bolton - 124 games
1996 - Mark Kinnear - 6 games
1995 - Scott Bamford - 59 games
1994 - Scott Lucas - 270 games
1993 - Glenn Gorman - 2 games
1992 - Justin Leppitsch - 227 games
1991 - Andrew McGovern - 83 games
1990 - Jason McCartney - 182 games
1989 - Peter Matera - 253 games
1988 - John McNamara - 0 games
1987 - Andrew Brockhurst - 38 games
1986 - Richard Anderson - 0 games
1982 - Baden Harper - 0 games
1981 - Mark Naley - 0 games

Couple of things..

Strange to single blokes out and not mention Peter Matera. Arguably the equal best player in that lot.

Oh and did Tim Walsh give the Kerridge and early shake. Pick 4, plays 1 career game during his 5 years on an AFL list but manages 3 marks and a goal against North Melbourne.
 
http://www.nmfc.com.au/news/2017-09-25/history-of-pick-4



Couple of things..

Strange to single blokes out and not mention Peter Matera. Arguably the equal best player in that lot.

Oh and did Tim Walsh give the Kerridge and early shake. Pick 4, plays 1 career game during his 5 years on an AFL list but manages 3 marks and a goal against North Melbourne.

And Farren Ray played in three premierships with StKilda?!! They wish!
 

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And Farren Ray played in three premierships with StKilda?!! They wish!

Great get missed that!!

Oh and Cale Morton. Lol, what sort of recruiter would pick him at 4? Bet they never worked in the industry again after that.
 
Great get missed that!!

Oh and Cale Morton. Lol, what sort of recruiter would pick him at 4? Bet they never worked in the industry again after that.
The era of the "new breed of midfielder". Like kepler bradley was supposed to be. Poor old cale would lose weight eating a bucket of kfc
 
in a sports news update I heard brad scott would consider trading pick 4 if the right deal could be done.
Why is it North are always quoted when every club would trade their pick if the right deal could be done
 
I love this points thing. There's now a way to unequivocally know whether you're on the winning end of a trade.

I've learnt that picks 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 70 are more valuable as a combination than pick 3.

We should see if we can assemble an equivalent package of picks and yank pick 3 off Carlton.
 
I've been thinking about this and I am now hoping we take Cerra with pick 4. My thoughts are as follows:

1: too many people talk about his class for us to pass up
2: strong endurance
3: less likely to be a bust pick compared to Stephenson
4: late birthday
5: very consistent

Now people would rightly argue that we already have ziebell, cunners and dumont. However dumont isn't proven and we are picking a mid for 3,4 and 5 years down the track.

By then ziebell will probably be gone and cunners on his last legs.

Quite rightly we do lack outside speed and class, but again we need to assess our list in the future. I think Simpkin, Clarke, McDonald is a good base to start with. Add in Rankine/Walsh plus Thomas next year and maybe a mature recruit when the time is right and we are set there.

Cerra is a bankable very good mid with a proven track record. If it comes down to him and Stephenson I think we should go with Cerra.
 

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Dow and Fogarty would be amazing! What are the chances of that happening?

Id say we'd need two top ten picks to get that to happen.
 
Don't think maybe Fogarty might slip? It would be hard to see him go past adelaide or port unless they trade their first rounders.

Hard to say the chatter about him went down but seems to be rising again. It's possible for him to slip but I'd be surprised to see him available at 21.
 
I've been thinking about this and I am now hoping we take Cerra with pick 4. My thoughts are as follows:

1: too many people talk about his class for us to pass up
2: strong endurance
3: less likely to be a bust pick compared to Stephenson
4: late birthday
5: very consistent

Now people would rightly argue that we already have ziebell, cunners and dumont. However dumont isn't proven and we are picking a mid for 3,4 and 5 years down the track.

By then ziebell will probably be gone and cunners on his last legs.

Quite rightly we do lack outside speed and class, but again we need to assess our list in the future. I think Simpkin, Clarke, McDonald is a good base to start with. Add in Rankine/Walsh plus Thomas next year and maybe a mature recruit when the time is right and we are set there.

Cerra is a bankable very good mid with a proven track record. If it comes down to him and Stephenson I think we should go with Cerra.

He's a tough one to judge on youtube highlights alone. Not too much sexy footage of him but he reminds me in style and movement of Steele Sidebottom. Does look to read the fall of the ball well and have a few intangibles that don't really translate to highlight videos.

Fwiw felt the same re underwhelming highlights about Cunnington in his draft year and I'm sure there's a raft of other quality mids who would hardly have been eye-catching in the same context.
 

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I've been thinking about this and I am now hoping we take Cerra with pick 4. My thoughts are as follows:

1: too many people talk about his class for us to pass up
2: strong endurance
3: less likely to be a bust pick compared to Stephenson
4: late birthday
5: very consistent

Now people would rightly argue that we already have ziebell, cunners and dumont. However dumont isn't proven and we are picking a mid for 3,4 and 5 years down the track.

By then ziebell will probably be gone and cunners on his last legs.

Quite rightly we do lack outside speed and class, but again we need to assess our list in the future. I think Simpkin, Clarke, McDonald is a good base to start with. Add in Rankine/Walsh plus Thomas next year and maybe a mature recruit when the time is right and we are set there.

Cerra is a bankable very good mid with a proven track record. If it comes down to him and Stephenson I think we should go with Cerra.

Simpkin, Luke and Clarke aren’t exactly quick. Unless we trade one of our mids, pass.


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I've been thinking about this and I am now hoping we take Cerra with pick 4. My thoughts are as follows:

1: too many people talk about his class for us to pass up
2: strong endurance
3: less likely to be a bust pick compared to Stephenson
4: late birthday
5: very consistent

Now people would rightly argue that we already have ziebell, cunners and dumont. However dumont isn't proven and we are picking a mid for 3,4 and 5 years down the track.

By then ziebell will probably be gone and cunners on his last legs.

Quite rightly we do lack outside speed and class, but again we need to assess our list in the future. I think Simpkin, Clarke, McDonald is a good base to start with. Add in Rankine/Walsh plus Thomas next year and maybe a mature recruit when the time is right and we are set there.

Cerra is a bankable very good mid with a proven track record. If it comes down to him and Stephenson I think we should go with Cerra.

Not sure I will be overly impressed if a pick 4 mid takes 3 to 5 years to get going. If so by year two I suspect we will be seeing put a fork in him posts.
 
I've learnt that picks 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 70 are more valuable as a combination than pick 3.

We should see if we can assemble an equivalent package of picks and yank pick 3 off Carlton.

I realize this was in jest however I think its worth pointing out that it requires investing in 6 list vacancies to use 30,35,40,45,50,70 whilst pick 3 requires only 1.

Its for this reason that I have been advocating the possibility of running with an expanded rookie list in 2018 to help lay the groundwork for a potential point based spread in the 2018 draft as you outlined above.
 
I realize this was in jest however I think its worth pointing out that it requires investing in 6 list vacancies to use 30,35,40,45,50,70 whilst pick 3 requires only 1.

Its for this reason that I have been advocating the possibility of running with an expanded rookie list in 2018 to help lay the groundwork for a potential point based spread in the 2018 draft as you outlined above.

Interesting point re list spots. Might be a goer.

But yeh, owning 4 Corollas and 1 Skoda doesn't give you the performance of 1 Maserati.
 
Source on the Carlton board has talk of Dow not wanting to go to Qld, has said so to Brisbane / GC - so Raynor or Dow possibly available in top 4.
Suspect all clubs admins would be aware of this already


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What if all of projected top 4 say no to qld?

Won't matter Bris and McGC will draft them anyway.
 

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