Bluemour Discussion Thread VII (cont. in pt VIII)

[Wily trout]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...b/news-story/74f35e892272fcd384520018a99fceca

Really hope this trade eventuates, for reasonable price. Something about Lang I really like. I get the impression he is quite the determined and loyal type ( wanting to stick with the Cats last year even though being pursued by others) I get the impression he is also a solid leadership type. Just my opinion.

 

[Siegfried]

Actually I think those stats mean picks 7&8 are materially more appealing than pick 3.

0 x 150 gamer: 21.2% (vs 20% for pick 3)
1+ x 150 gamer: 78.8% (vs 80%)
2 x 150 gamer: 28.2% (vs 0%)

7&8 have almost the same success rate for producing one good player or being a total bust, but with the bonus of returning TWO good players more than 1/4 of the time...

Overall 7&8 have an expected return of producing 1.07 x 150 gamers vs 0.80. A clear win for me.

One could argue that a successful pick 3 might produce a better player than a successful pick 7/8, but that's a whole other conversation.

Thanks FB, was trying to work out the probabilities, and my nephew (bless the young minds) just came up with the same numbers that you did.

So that's really interesting, and then it comes down to Silvagni's judgement on players available. But those numbers certainly suggest a straight swap of 3 for 7 and 8 is something to consider (whereas previously I was more strongly against it). As you say, the other big question is the quality of those 150 game players, which is where you might plump for pick 3.

 

[LordLucifer]

Cringe at these "this trade period is a fizzer because we haven't done anything" statements... Honestly flick back to last year and see what happened in the final minutes of trade period..... Do we want to throw up next years second for Kennedy just to get it done a week early so we can all sit back and say "yes! we did a trade"..? Let time play out, let our guys do their thing, then judge.

Well said.

 

[kjr8]

Atkins may not be as poised, or accurate by foot as Gibbs, but not far off. Is certainly quicker and tougher at the same age and probably right now too

I love him, but Gibba can blindly throw it on his boot with the best of them at stoppages.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Aphrodite]

Still working on Scully and want pick 10 from Adelaide.

#Bluemour

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

As one of the greats once said...

He’s a good ordinary player

Tigers won the flag with 18 ordinary, ordinary players

 

[Neadsy83]

Sen twitter has quoted Terry Wallace saying Richmond interviewed Schache and he got upset with some of the questions asked, they think he is a little soft and opted to pass. If he was going to be a superstar then why would Brisbane be cutting their losses already?

He would be worth a mid/late 2nd rounder absolute maximum. Also has a work rate issue and isn't quick!

 

[ShanDog]

I love him, but Gibba can blindly throw it on his boot with the best of them at stoppages.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

True, and it can be frustrating. But even more frustrating is that we don't set up for it. That clearance kick forward just always hits an oppo player. Does my head in.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

I don't get trade period sometimes, supporters seem to shoot down players' abilities, except for a certain few favourites

Sen twitter has quoted Terry Wallace saying Richmond interviewed Schache and he got upset with some of the questions asked, they think he is a little soft and opted to pass. If he was going to be a superstar then why would Brisbane be cutting their losses already?

He would be worth a mid/late 2nd rounder absolute maximum. Also has a work rate issue and isn't quick!

Someone else said they heard he wasn't performing well in interviews... i wonder what questions that they would be asking, would be upsetting him and why?

 

[Aphrodite]

Sen twitter has quoted Terry Wallace saying Richmond interviewed Schache and he got upset with some of the questions asked, they think he is a little soft and opted to pass. If he was going to be a superstar then why would Brisbane be cutting their losses already?

He would be worth a mid/late 2nd rounder absolute maximum. Also has a work rate issue and isn't quick!

#ListMangler

 

[Juddafideslenko]

Someone else said they heard he wasn't performing well in interviews... i wonder what questions that they would be asking, would be upsetting him and why?[/QUOTE]
SOS is an absolute genius!

 

[LordLucifer]

Trade 2- Pick 3 & 12 and 2018 2nd round to BRIS for Pick 1 & 19 and Schache.

Appreciate the effort but it fell down right there.

 

[Nori]

Still working on Scully and want pick 10 from Adelaide.

#Bluemour

Yep, SOS is a monster all right!

 

[JuddgementDay]

Someone else said they heard he wasn't performing well in interviews... i wonder what questions that they would be asking, would be upsetting him and why?

SOS is an absolute genius! [/QUOTE]
Yeah pfff fake shoulder injury
How about 2 years of sub par performance
Sulk & pretend to be soft
Be lousy at interviews...
And go to carlton on the cheap

 

[Cripps17]

Does my head in.

Not a doctor but that's not normal. Please look after your health everyone, if your head starts to concave at all get it checked out.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Yeah pfff fake shoulder injury
How about 2 years of sub par performance
Sulk & pretend to be soft
Be lousy at interviews...
And go to carlton on the cheap

If that's what is happening, SOS is the second coming...

 

[bluemahogany]

Didn't know shoulder injuries were a thing until SOS came back

 

[Soapy V]

Sen twitter has quoted Terry Wallace saying Richmond interviewed Schache and he got upset with some of the questions asked, they think he is a little soft and opted to pass. If he was going to be a superstar then why would Brisbane be cutting their losses already?

He would be worth a mid/late 2nd rounder absolute maximum. Also has a work rate issue and isn't quick!

When clubs aren't jumping over each other to land a former Pick 2 Key Forward I have concerns

 

[BringBackSimmo]

When clubs aren't jumping over each other to land a former Pick 2 Key Forward I have concerns

Jake Niall said essentially the same thing...

“It is remarkable that a player who was Pick 2 in the draft, who has clearly got talent, has yet to get a significant bid from a Victorian club.

“To me it’s almost the biggest surprise, if you look at what normally happens, you’d think there’d be half a dozen clubs.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/jo...k=de835b7b47b7b6ff972770ce31a7de9a-1507942209

 

[Mister Carlton]

When clubs aren't jumping over each other to land a former Pick 2 Key Forward I have concerns

Carlton offered him some ridiculous money earlier this year. Doubt they have gone cold. Reckon they are looking for a bargain bin price.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Someone else said they heard he wasn't performing well in interviews... i wonder what questions that they would be asking, would be upsetting him and why?

Do you still wet the bed ?


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[BringBackSimmo]

Carlton offered him some ridiculous money earlier this year. Doubt they have gone cold. Reckon they are looking for a bargain bin price.

SOS has a cunning plan... as cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University

 

[rp84]

Actually I think those stats mean picks 7&8 are materially more appealing than pick 3.

0 x 150 gamer: 21.2% (vs 20% for pick 3)
1+ x 150 gamer: 78.8% (vs 80%)
2 x 150 gamer: 28.2% (vs 0%)

7&8 have almost the same success rate for producing one good player or being a total bust, but with the bonus of returning TWO good players more than 1/4 of the time...

Overall 7&8 have an expected return of producing 1.07 x 150 gamers vs 0.80. A clear win for me.

One could argue that a successful pick 3 might produce a better player than a successful pick 7/8, but that's a whole other conversation.

Now, that is some money ball shit right there.

I'm sold.

 

[passmark]

SOS has a cunning plan... as cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at FOxford University

 

[Cripps17]

SOS has a cunning plan... as cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University

Foxord University*

Edit: See, this is why you were kidnapped passy. Stay away from my likes.